It keeps getting harder and more expensive to build modern weapons. The combination of cost and complexity drives companies from the market. The most noticeable effect has been on the emerging economies that tried to become arms producers. Brazil, India, Taiwan, Korea, Israel, Pakistan and South Africa all began major arms programs in the 1970s and 1980s. Even when there was substantial foreign assistance, these countries couldnt sustain their programs. A few decided to specialize in niche production, but none could bear the development costs of major next-generation systems. In those cases where they persevered, the systems they developed tended to be over-expensive, underpowered variants of modern weaponry. This is one reason why all of these countries were also attracted to WMD — its cheaper and easier to build. In the West, shrinking budgets, cost and complexity drove defense industrial consolidation.
Making weapons systems requires experience, databases, and integration skills that cant be acquired quickly. Today, only the U.S., Russia and Europe can make a full range of advanced weapons. This is particularly true for combat aircraft, which brings us to India. India was a Soviet client for decades when it came to arms purchases (Britain sold them used aircraft carriers). India is now in the market for a new fighter and, in a shift, is looking at Western sources. With a planned purchase of 126 aircraft, this is one the last big deals out there. The contenders include Boeings F/A-18, Lockheeds F-16, the Eurofighter and Dassaults Rafaele. The Russians will probably offer the SU-30M. All are good planes.
Boeing has upped the ante by also offering to coproduce the F/A-18 in India with HAL, Indias big government-owned aerospace firm. Coproduction does not lower the cost for the acquirer. The planes built at the foreign facility are usually more expensive. The hope is that some of the integration skills and experience will rub off onto indigenous programs. When the U.S. and Japan began co-production of fighter aircraft in the 1980s, there were shrieks from protectionists that we were teaching the Japanese how to swallow the aerospace industry, they would soon move over into commercial aircraft, etc. None of this happened, nor is it likely to happen with India. The F/A-18 is a great aircraft, but it entered service in 1981 (the last one, much improved, was built twenty years later).
The trend in the global arms industry is to downsize and consolidate. Few countries can afford to sustain modern arms industries, but if India (or China) commits to spend billions of dollars for at least a decade, it could enter the small club of countries able to produce modern combat aircraft. For now its cheaper (and better) to buy than to build.
Posted by Jim Lewis
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Buy or Build
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Regarding SU-30M & India: The Indian Air Force ordered 40 aircraft in 1996 and an additional ten in 1998. 18 Su-30K have been delivered which will be upgraded to MKI standard. First deliveries of ten Su-30MKI full specification aircraft with thrust vectoring and phased array radar took place in September 2002 and deliveries were completed in December 2004. Hindustani Aeronautics (HAL) is also contracted to build 140 aircraft in India between 2003 and 2017, under a licensed production agreement. The first indigenously assembled aircraft was delivered in November 2004.
http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/su_30mk/
For what it’s worth:
My dad has worked for government contractors for 30+ years, building spacecraft, airplanes, helicopters and various subcontracting jobs. He and I have been talking about the procurement process for fifteen years, but lately I have been asking him more pointed questions, and recently I asked him if he felt the system was finally broken.
HIs answers are always interesting. The last time we talked he said the real problem with the procurement process is the way the Pentagon handles their end: defense contractors only build what they’re asked to build. The problem lies with the fact that the Pentagon rotates staff every two or three years, which means there is no continuity for long-term projects. Every time there is a switch, the new staff does a review of the projects they have been handed, and every new staff wants it own “bells and whistles”. This produces a constantly moving, constantly expanding target for the contractors to meet. The process is getting out of control, as the DD(X) destroyers show.
It is interesting your story shows a picture of the F/A-18, as that plane is a good example. Originally it was supposed to be the Navy’s version of the F-16: a cheap, simple, maneuverable fighter plane. But, as the procurement process cranked through its inevitable cycles, the requirements got more and more baroque, the plane heavier and and more expensive and further and further away from its initial goal.
I offer this second-hand insight as a way of saying that the process does not have to be as expensive as it is. If there is enough desire, the process could be changed, but that would require commitment from both ends of the spectrum and a change in the way the DoD thinks about their role.
Good Morning Mr. Lewis,
I assume that you had knowledge of the possable cancellation of both the F-22 and F-35 programs that were announced yesterday before you wrote you piece above.
You did touch on the problem of most weapon systems “Time”. By the time an American Defense Contractor can bring a weapons system from conception to contract it is most likely obsolute or no longer meets the current threat, that is the case of these two aircraft.
These drawn out time lines are very profitable to the contractors. The traditional excuse of changes by the “Customer” is a two edged sword and can cut both ways. I would suggest that industry stays away from this line of reasoning as a rationalization to the American Public.
The other factor is because of the long R&D periods the cost goes up, example of this of course is the F-22. First estimated in the early 90’s at $30 Million a copy, a factor of two over the existing aircraft of the era, to $65 Million in the late 90’s, to $135 Million in 2004 to yesterdays announced $345 Million per aircraft.
Even in the best of times $345 Million for a Fighter/Interceptor/Attack Plane is way to much money.
It is interesting though, Lockheed is still a trying to sell (Market) the F-22 to the General Public. A few hours before the DoD’s announcment of possable cancelation of the F-22 Lockheed put out a story about how an F/A-22 succeeded in droping a JADAM from Mach 1 and hitting it’s target. My reaction is why is this importantand to who?
I’m not a fan of Sec. of Defense Rumsfeld in the least and his quick trip to Iraq as this announcement was being made indicates a lot. But he is right, these uberdefense contracts are a cold war relic that have to go.
Now it time to look at the FCS, Joint Services Radio/Data System(s), the V-22 (The V-22 comes with the purchase of 24 new amphabious warfare ships to accomidate the new aircraft, the San Antonio Class LPD has went from $.83 Million to $1.8 Billion per copy, the LPH(2) is penciled in at $3.5 Billion ea. it is of note that all these ships will be replacing ships that are at less the 50% of there service lives), Big Deck Carriers, the 82ed. Airborne Division, the U.S. Marines (amphabious capacities) and keeping the B-2 Bomber active.
Mr. Sec. you are finally getting a start, keep it up.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
“Stewart’s Platoon”
I personally think my country (india) should go with european planes or continue developing its next generation of fighter planes with russia like the new Sukhoi called Berkut. The only reason the US even wants to give us these planes is to foist off old technology on us. Its the same reason Taiwan said they wouldn’t buy aegis destroyers even if they were offered.
Isn’t the Mirage 2000–5 being offered to India, not the Rafale. Either way I’m guessing they’ll go for the Mirage as they already have quite a few, and this would be a more logical step logistically.
As for the F-22 and F-35 being cold-war relics, I’m assuming you think flying even older cold war relics (F-15, F-16, F-18, Harrier) for the next twenty years is a better idea? BTW, it’s nice that you included development costs in the F-22s unit price.
Good Morning Gab,
Good try Gab, but no cigar, ever hear of the B-52, it entered service in 1954?
Since then we have seen the B-57, B-58, B-70, B-1 and B-2 come and go, mostly to Davis Mountain Az.
The B-52 “BUFF” is now in U.S.A.F. operational plans until at least 2040, most likely longer. By that time the only place you will be able to see a B-1 or a B-2 in on DVD.
You might argue that the B-1’s and B-2’s are the curent stars in GWOT, but that is an illusion supported only in DoD pess releases.
Of the 90 or so B-1’s that maybe still could fly they are based 16 in North Dakota (to be closed under BRAC), 16 in Texas the rest at Davis Mountaing masquarding as parts warehouses (te B-1 has had so many mehicanical problems that it is know as “The Hanger Queesn” with in the U.S.A.F.) for those flying. A total of four have actually flown missions in either Afghanistan or Iraq.
Canceling the B-1 was the most rational decission of the Carter Admistration.
The celebrated B-2, well only 21 were ever made, it’s a small party and only four have been modified to carry and deliver JADAMS, the other seventeen are only able to deliver dedicated weapons which were used up in Kosovo. Of the four modified to carry JADAMS only two have actually flown any combat missions in Afghanistan or Iraq.
The DoD is so afraid of losing a B-2 that they are only use at high altitude and in missions where they can stand off from the target out of the range on any SAMS. Oh you ask what about Stealth? Well the downing of the F-117 by the Serbs, a country of Rocket Scientists if there ever was one in Kosovo was a wake up call, there is no such thing as Stealth until someone invents anti-matter that you can make an aircraft out of.
Two overseas basing facilities have been built to forward deply the B-2, Guam and Diego Garcia the can base two planes at each. The B-2’s has only been based at either for training exercises.
The Ground support role is being done by the aircraft the Generals never wanted the A-10. The recent moderization of this unwanted air frame assures it will be unloved by the “Figher Mafia” at least another generation.
For the Air to Air Combat role what does the F-22 bring to the table that is not already their?
Lets see since Vietnam no American fighter plane has been downed in Air to Air Combat by any of the current Aircraft flown by anybody. The Chinese, Russia and India are still debating what current technology to buy. Again why does the U.S.A.F. need the $345 Million F/A-22?
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
“Stewart’s Platoon”
India should opt for a mix of Mirage 2000–5 & F18 Super Hornet with transfer of technology & co production of both in India. Everything will fall in place well technology & politics.
“When the U.S. and Japan began co-production of fighter aircraft in the 1980s, there were shrieks from protectionists that we were teaching the Japanese how to swallow the aerospace industry, they would soon move over into commercial aircraft, etc. None of this happened…“
But it HAS happened. Pay attention to Boeing.
If we insist on trading in our own warm and fuzzy global fantasyland instead of the real world of brass knuckles, thumb in the eye, fight dirty global trade; we will leave our teeth on the floor.
Bruce Considine
A fool and his money is soon parted.
India should co-develop planes with Russia. HAL is building the LCF based off of MiG 21 designs. THey will most likely do the same with other planes…
Build upgraded versions using Russian designs.
I want my homeland to continually build alongside of Russia nd this can be seen with them signing the pact of co-building the Su-37
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