A week ago, this blog picked up on something the big media had all-but-ignored: a Pentagon plan to draw the number of U.S. troops down to about 92,000 by the end of next year.
“I would think that the fact that the DOD announced we were lowering the number of troops in Iraq for 2006 would be huge news, but no one seems to care,” the site’s author, Pierce Wetter, e-mailed me.
That was before Rep. John Murtha’s call to bring the troops home. Now, suddenly, withdrawal plans are all the rage. Especially ones “drafted by Gen. John Abizaid and Gen. George Casey, the two top U.S. commanders of the war,” as NBC notes.
If Iraqi elections are successful in December and a new parliament seated by January, withdrawal could begin almost immediately. Military officials say it would be an incremental or phased withdrawal beginning slowly at first, with one or two battalions up to 2,000 troops at a time.
Entire battalions of soldiers and Marines, now scheduled for duty in Iraq next year, would also be told they don’t have to go. Some American troops would be placed on temporary standby in neighboring Kuwait ready to respond, if needed, to any major outbreaks of violence in Iraq.
THERE’S MORE: In the comments, Murdoc says the 92K number doesn’t include Marines… And “Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, addressing the renewed debate over American troops in Iraq, said today that any paring down of the forces there would depend on military and security conditions, and that current troop levels must be maintained at least until the December elections in Iraq,” according to the Times.
AND MORE: John Robb, as usual, has smart things to say about this. Particularly, about the natural consequence(s) of the isolation of US decision makers from the external reference environment. Instead of making connections, we severed them,” he writes.
This isolation… drove: Bad decision making. The willingness to accept flawed intelligence on Iraq’s WMD capabilities. The failure to stop the looting after the invasion. The decision to disband the Iraqi military. The failure to send enough troops.
Ad hoc planning and strategy development. The lack of a plan to win the peace in the Iraq. The plethora of different military plans since then: build Sunni militias (Fallujah), stability for elections and a political solutions, aggressive counter-insurgent sweeps, clear-and-hold (oil-spots), etc.
I think that the 2 operative words in the report are “if” and “could”. There were troop drawdowns, IIRC, in early 2004, when the US troop complement briefly touched 105,000; there are currently about 150,000 deployed.
And what would count as a “major” outbreak of violence? It strikes me that there are major outbreaks on a near daily basis already.
er, its blindingly obvious why this was not reported — because its very good news! Yes its that simple current leftist mainstream media only want you to think ‘quagmire’ about iraq and the end is nigh. Hence this news story just dosn’t fit with what they want you to beleive.
> Hence this news story just dosn’t fit with
> what they want you to beleive.
Anyone who thinks the vultures aren’t already circling Iraq, at this very moment, is sadly mistaken.
It may not be a quagmire in quite the same way the Vietnam was and there may be no decernable ho-chi-minh trail, but the reality is that the US had done nothing but hasten the establishment of an Islamic theocracy… this is *NOT* good news.
The number one indicator, that things are really going south, will be if the exit plan trims troop levels everywhere but locations with easy exit plans (a la Siagon). Those locations are the boarder with Jordan, Turkey and Kuwait. Hell, I bet Iran would even offer safe transit for any troops/contractors leaving Iraq at the last possible moment. The only notable exception would be Bagdad, which can’t be ignored… all eyes will be looking there for a good old fashion Siagon like fleeing. If that’s the last note that the current administration goes out on, I think *everyone* can count on lots of changes happening very quickly in lots of places.
In short, I don’t think it would be possible to prop up the current paper tigers currently masqerading as Iraqi “security forces” long enough for a non-run-for-your-life type of withdrawal.
We’ve heard these kinds of reports before. I’ll believe a large-scale withdrawal of troops when I see it.
The Theocracy Iran proxy stuff is BS although if we pull our support will happen. Iran pre-mullahs were staunch US allies and they were Shia and they were Muslim. The Iraqi Shia overwhelmingly deny a Iran style Mullacracy short Sadr that is a small portion of followers. The thing people point to in the Iraqi constitution that they say is Teocracy proof is the part were it says its based on Islam which I would say sounds more like a wise move to avoid the problem we are having today, our constitution was based on christianity, religion is not bad religion is a good thing but just like everything else bad people can turn it into a really bad thing. The protection of minorities and religious freedom is also written in so its not one way only just stating the obvious that if a group of muslims write a constitution it will propably be heavily influenced by Islam. If we pull out early they will be forced into the Iranian arms and the fears will be reality.
Once more we here the right’s dreams about how we’re building an Iraqi army. is there anything other then US pronouncements on the subject to let us know that this is actually happening? that some large combat capable force actually exists?
Yknow, other then the decepticon administrations pronoucements on this subject…
Punctuation aside, C-Low does make some good points. As to Aaron’s comments, I would refer him to the information coming out from the men and women on the ground in the region. Their words can be seen at Military.com.
A further indication of the coming stability is the invest money now coming into Iraq from Western sources and the Pacific Rim. There is also a story of a car bombing in Iraq being foiled by a neighborhood watch. A neighborhood watch, in Iraq. Can you get more normalized!
People are realizing that for the first time in their lives, they can speak their minds and have it mean something as well. Every protest march they make, every demonstration is not a negative, it is a nail in the coffin of the terrorists. Now the people have begun to realize that they’ve been lied to, not by Bush, but by the mullahs, by the terrorists, by the left over Baathists, and they are doing something about it.
In Jordan, we had a populist demonstration against the terrorists (boy, did they strike at the wrong target). Then with their lame excuse that the wedding was a cover for a an Israeli Mossad meeting and threatening the royal family, well, stick a fork in them, they’re done.
Top this all off with fact that the host nations of the terrorists are beginning to come around to the notion that a proxy war is not as cost effective as they first thought and you have a situation that I wouldn’y call a losing one for our side.
By the way, the information and opinions I have stated here were not drawn from US news sources, with the exception of Military.com, rather they are taken from overseas news sources and by my speaking with co-workers who are Iraqi and still working here as they pass along to me what their relatives over there are saying and doing.
I am also reminded from what my father told me of WWII, about weak spined people who lacked the will to win, who were frightened by the Nazis and the Shogunate, who said we couldn’t win then either. True, we had some dark days but, in the end, we prevailed. And we can and will prevail here if we ignore the counsel of cowardice, of fear, and of the weak of resolve.
C-Low’s capacity to rewrite recent history is quite startling. The Shah’s regime was staunchly pro-US, mainly because the Western powers engineered the coup that returned him to absolute power, and for the next 25 years were instrumental in maintaining him in his position. The Iranian revolution, if I remember correctly, was both popular and extremely anti-American; it led to the downfall of Carter — Mossadeq’s revenge as it were. Most Iranians are capable of distinguishing between the US people and the US government — they like the former but are suspicious of the hegemonic record of the latter; the parallel situation obtains with regards to America.
As regards Sadr — I’m not aware that he subscribes to the Khomeinist position regarding the guardianship of the clerics; certainly his object of emulation, before he was disowned by him, was one of the dissident Iranian clerics in this regard. However, that does not alter the fact that the default government in Iraq will be dominated by religious Shia parties that intend to institute some form of Islamic governance; it’s also noticeable that since Jafaari came to office that Iraq has signed a non-aggression pact with Iran, an economic cooperation pact, and on Friday, a mutual security cooperation agreement. I doubt that this goes down well with the neocons in Washington, who find themselves in the awkward position of combatting a Sunni insurgency for the benefit of Teheran-allied factions in Iraq; it just wasn’t supposed to work out like that.
As regards the balance sheet — well to date OIF and OEF have lead to the deaths of at least 2350 US troops, plus an unknown number of black-ops personnel, plus well in excess of 100 US civilian contractors, plus some 250 allied troops and tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians; not to mention the vast numbers of seriously injured, medically disabled and psychically scarred veterans that this war is leaving in its wake. At the current rate the number of US military/contractor dead that surpasses the victims of 9/11 will be reached by this time next year.
Quite why you think that Iraqis who are currently fighting the US military were ever likely candidates for turning up in the US to blow up churches and shopping malls escapes me; Iraq has however clearly inspired a new generation to blow up trains and buses in London and Madrid. It is undeniable, however, that the invasion and occupation of Iraq has proved to be the gift that keeps on giving as far as Jihadi recruitment is concerned — and if your figure of 20% is to be believed, then we’re talking about having to deal with some 120 million male Islamic extremists globally; thankfully I know when people are just making shit up.
This could have been avoided if the Bush administration had not piggy-backed a long-cherished strategic agenda on top of the 9/11 tragedy; the forensic dismantling of AQ would have been far easier to accomplish if the strategy for Afghanistan had been correct, and there had been a significant US force on the ground at Tora Bora to actually capture/kill OBL and AAZ and their associates.
Hmmm… No Marines? That’s true.
Though some of the Marines there now were already part of OIF-4.
As for not drawing down troops until after December, my understanding of the rotation plan is that we have a temporary “bump” from Oct-December from overlapping the rotation plan, so there’s kind of a planned reduction in January:
http://www.opinionatedbastard.com/archives/000626.html
cool site!
good points.
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And what would count as a “major” outbreak of violence? It strikes me that there are major outbreaks on a near daily basis already.
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In short, I don’t think it would be possible to prop up the current paper tigers currently masqerading as Iraqi “security forces” long enough for a non-run-for-your-life type of withdrawal
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