So let’s assume Iran does get the Bomb. How big of a threat is that, really? Could the mullahs hook it up to a missile, for instance, and fire that sucker off at Tel Aviv?
Arms Control Wonk Dr. Jeffrey Lewis tackles those questions in the second part of his trilogy on the Iran’s nuclear capacity.
The bottom line: Iran might, might, be able to deliver a nuclear weapon against an Israeli city, but that would be at the extreme edge of their capabilities.
Much more worrisome, I would think, would be the weapon delivered by terrorists, perhaps on a ship…
Irans missiles arent that big, and its warheads arent that small. Without more testing of both, I think Iran would be hard pressed to deliver a missile to Israel, let alone Europe or the United States.
That said, Iranwith low confidencemight be able to build a 500‑1000 kg warhead could hit targets thoughout the Middle East, including Israel if mated to its Shahab 3 IRBM…
This is, I think, the very edge of Tehrans capabilities and they would have very low confidence in either system.
{ 11 comments… read them below or add one }
For the Love of Allah, WTF are you guys up to?
First of all you take half the world to war on really bad infromation or lies then you
a. steal oil from Iraq (yeah like the US is paying for it)
b. and try to keep your $ from folding due to the Middle East starting to trade Oil in Euros
Now you are scare-mongering again with Iran
Yes Phil, Defense Tech is leading Europe, Russia, The UN and Israel into war with Iran! Just like I came back from BIAP with a duffel bag full of oil! Those elections the Iraqis had – all faked!
“Now you are scare-mongering again with Iran”
The post by Jeffrey Lewis actually serves a dose of reality to scare mongers.
That map is ridiculous – if you launch a missile from the exact geographical center of Iran, then sure: it won’t hit Israel. But if you go into the far northwestern corner, near Turkey, or really anywhere that isn’t in the exact geographical center of the country, you could hit Greece, Israel, maybe further.
The perimeter on that map really makes no sense at all.
Isn’t it enough of a deterrant for the U.S. or Israel or whoever to just say to Iran and these other asshats who want to build nukes: “look, we know you’re gonna build some nuclear power plants and maybe throw a couple of nuclear warheads together, but you’re on the short list of countries that are gonna be glowing for ten million years if a terrorist pops one of these off.”
Steven:
Your argument assumes that the folks in charge are fairly rational, and aren’t gripped with suicidal, end-times fever. I’m not sure that’s the case.
nms
I wonder how much of a threat a Shiite bomb would be against the Sunnis who terrorize this minority in Pakistan, Iraq, and other Sunni-dominated countries? Al queda views the Shia believers as apostates, and therefore kill them with impunity. Is it possible that a Shiite bomb would be more of a threat to Riyadh than to Tel Aviv?
better to do it to them first wouldn’t you think ?…i would rather accept the consequences now, than 10 years down the line when they can and will blackmail us. one atomic bomb from them will bring us down which is their stated aim. remember they stand for no beer ,no beach clad babes, no burgers, no bacon butties, no soccer, no music and they all bow down and pray to some stone or other like you would expect from 6th century bozos
Damn yankie cowboys, look stop spoiling for another war you have TWO on the go at the moment. And your getting pwned in both of them, the one your about to start is the ONE your going to regret even worse then hte NAM.
No pun intended, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to deliver a device. A little creative thought and effort to put it in any nation desired.
“we made thousands of mistakes in Iraq” (Condolizza Rice, 04/04/2006)
u know what? u.s. will make m i l l i o n s of mistakes by underestimating capabilities of her worlwide foes, espec. when it comes to a country like Iran — u can take this for granted!