Usually, I write about small things: a tight-knit group of cops, a single murder, a squad of soldiers, one crazy game. My cover story (!) in this month’s Popular Mechanics is my first attempt to go big. Really big. $70 billion big.
The idea was to take the President and the SecDef at their words — that the “Long War” against Islamic extremism is the country’s top military priority. Does the Pentagon’s $70 billion a year budget for new weapons back that up? Is America’s arsenal being geared towards counter-terror, counter-insurgency type fights?
Take a guess.
Inside the defense establishment, the Long War has competition. In many minds, the real threat is a rising China. And, at least when it comes to acquisitions, the China crowd has the upper hand. Which means the weapons budget is packed with gear — Joint Strike Fighters, DD(X) destroyers — optimized for a big war in the Pacific, not a messy one in the Middle East.
The story hasn’t appeared online, yet. I’ll let you know when it does. But Tom Barnett, who’s quoted several times in the piece, has some excerpts up on his blog.
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Good Morning Folks,
As a long time reader of “Popular Mechanics”, since the days it was $.25 on the news stand, you do the math, I’m pleased that they chose to write such a story. For those of you who have read the current issue you will notice the PM is questioning the need for these weapon systems both on costs and the viability of the “Long War” doctrine in the 2006 QDR.
PM has put Defense spending front and center on middle Americas table, let hope that public dialogue is forth comming on this subject.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
You know what I can’t help noticing? Our senior military brass, our Senators, our media, and our President seem to be dead set on this ‘threat’ from China. But you know what? I haven’t heard one single word from China that even SUGGESTS that they want a war with us. NOTHING. The only ‘combative’ statements they’ve made so far are in regards to Taiwan’s independence, and that has more of a political angle to it than anything. I think, instead of doing their best to provoke some kind of confrontation with China, the ‘voices’ in our country need to start using diplomacy and see if we can actually work with another superpower instead of always having to dominate.
Military planning and procurment is based on capabilities, not intentions.
Intentions change.
Mind reading is an inexact art.
It is normal to pick the biggest potential problem and plan your force around it. That way smaller problems are (in theory) easily handled.
China is a rising and modernizing power with territorial disputes with several different allies and is the largest communist country left.
Is it any surprise that the plans are focused on them?
The Case Orange studies were not started because we had bad relations with Japan, at the time we didn’t. They were started because Japan was the biggest potential problem…
While I agree that planning for every concievable threat is smart, and necessary to maintain a strong defense, I think our military planners should do a better job of keeping such reports restricted to ‘need to know’ eyes only. Way too much inflammatory press is going out these days based on leaks (whether intentional or not) and speculation.
You are right that China does not want a war. The only reason they will not start a war with us right now is because they still need us, and our resources. There will come a point in time where China’s growth will be hampered by the West. At that point China will become a lot more militarily agressive, to continue it’s explosive growth.
As far as China not saying anything provking, they are saying one thing, but their actions belie another intention. They are looking to expand their influence, and are also looking to take control over as many natural resources as possible. They want to be the number one on the block, they are doing everything they can to get there.
I don’t know about you, but I seriously doubt that any country that is spying on us, as well as buliding more missles to aim at us has any good intentions for the future.
Anyone who doubts China’s intentions needs to read the Art of War by Sun Tsu. It’s almost as if China is using it as a playbook. This is not about co-exisitng with a superpower, this is, or at least it needs to be about America and her Allies being able to secure out future, and not allow ourselves to become second fiddle to a Communist powerhouse.
Sorry to barge in OT, but the two posts above this appear to be locked..
Anyways. The “China” crowd is just the “Soviet” people again, fighting the same “Red Commies” from last time, down to similar equipment and doctrines. The Soviet Union had no desire to get blown to smithereens and China has no such desire either. The urban class of China want to become consumerist and materialistic just like us Americans, and going to war is the short path to wartime rationing and the possibility of imminent death.
This means our policy and method of dealing with China will be cloak and dagger, carrot and stick.
Its easy to point out the policy differences in
regards to china and the middle east.Its two
different types of warfare,though i don’t believe the perspectives been squed one more
over the other.The situation in the middle east
demands a proactive approach because the enemy is
an active one,and resources are at issue.The chinese
situation is of some concern because of chinas long
term ambitions,but requires steady preperation as
china is only just now transitioning from an self
defensive military posture to one with aims at
projecting potential global power.So yes,we should
put some more thought into the long war as the popular mechanics article suggests because of its
immediacy,but one would be remiss to not pay some
attention to the rising dragon in the east.
I can’t tell you how nice it is to be kicking around issues on a forum with reasonably thinking people, and without the mindless banter that goes on elsewhere…
: )
This isn’t anything new.
Its smart to plan for the big war, and hope it never happens.
I can see the argument that the money would be better spent on counter-terrorism type of projects, whether that be from IED destroyers or securing our border better by using more people, cameras, and UAV’s, but you MUST keep the capability to go toe-2-toe with ANY nation on earth, to me, thats simply not negotiable.
With Russia selling oil and gas to China so as to allow China to expand over the next decade or so looks a win — win for both parties. Things could look a lot worse if OPEC or some members from OPEC decided to concentrate upon meeting the energy requirements of both China and India then the West might well have cause to worry. To echo thoughts made by DS send in the politicians, trade officials and others as jaw, jaw is preferable to war, war.
DS:
I would love to see the people who leak these classified studies/planning procecuted for the felony they have commited.
However, most of them are in congress.
And the reporters who act as their accessories think they are above the law.
The inherent flaw in a free society. I have not came up with fix for it that does not unduely surpress our freedom, have you?
Maybe because any new project to target insurgency
would deliver like 10 years later.
Plus no track record has been shown of technology making a huge difference in insurgency — which can just adjust tactics. If you have an explosive detector, they can just learn to seal the explosives under plastic to hide fumes or make decoys…If you have armored humvees — you make bigger bombs.
And long to not, the ‘War on Terror’ will have moved on by then. It may still be on but I doubt there would be an Iraq situation.
Besides this might be a game theory signal to China to stop its current Defense budget growth which is higher than its economic growth…
Powermonging, battling perceived threats, and greed, i.e. spending insane pots of cash on defense, or actually trying to decrease the NEED for threats, power and greed worldwide, i.e. spending on the reduction of poverty and suffering, and science. Which is better?
The US is on top, and plans to stay there. That aim, in itself, has reduced it to the greatest threat to worldwide freedom of the last, say, 81 years, not least freedom in the US itself. If you’re an American, you won’t care. Which is why we won’t when the US fail and even more Americans are plunged into abject poverty.
This American Administration just want to keep painting everybody in this world who happen to subscribe to different religious belief or happen to be NOT ‘white’ as perceived enemies in order to justify the continuous existence of this military industrial complex so forewarned by Ike in the early 60’s. The Americans, as pointed out by the recent IMF report are already borrowing more than two thirds of the world’s net savings or 2.2 billion dollars a day just to finance this ‘American way’ of life. One cannot help but wonder how long this can go on as all these obscene money just go to enrich a few of the well connected fat cats. Looks like the American public needs to wake up and stop listening to all these lies and misinformation and do something positive about their near bankrupt country. All these mmoney could have been better spent in fighting diseases like AIDS and cancer instead on armaments. Why can’t we Christians live with other God’s children in peace and harmony? Why must we need to have perceived enemies when we don’t need any? Who’s to judge others when this American Administration spends over 500 billion dollars on the defence budget which is heck of a lot more than the Chinese are spending.
Hah, at that time, I was not a height of snake, and I also lost many cheap kamas because killed the snake.
Moreover I could also be able to afford the things which I wanted to buy, and could buy cronous gold to give to others, I was very happy.