As you’ve probably heard by now, Sy Hersh has a new scoop: that planning for an attack on Iran is further along than you think, and that nukes might be involved.
One of the militarys initial option plans, as presented to the White House by the Pentagon this winter, calls for the use of a bunker-buster tactical nuclear weapon, such as the B61-11, against underground nuclear sites. One target is Irans main centrifuge plant, at Natanz, nearly two hundred miles south of Tehran. Natanz… reportedly has underground floor space to hold fifty thousand centrifuges, and laboratories and workspaces buried approximately seventy-five feet beneath the surface. That number of centrifuges could provide enough enriched uranium for about twenty nuclear warheads a year… The elimination of Natanz would be a major setback for Irans nuclear ambitions, but the conventional weapons in the American arsenal could not insure the destruction of facilities under seventy-five feet of earth and rock, especially if they are reinforced with concrete.
Based on a 1950’s design, the B61-11 bunker-buster has been around in its current form since 1997. That Divine Strake test — the one that’s gonna produce the “mushroom cloud over Las Vegas” on June 2? Probably a B61 simulation, the Arms Control Wonk says.
The Pentagon and the Energy Department have been pushing for an update for several years, now — something that can penetrate deeper, and rely on a lower nuclear yield. That program, the “Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator,” is officially cancelled. But there’s widespread speculation that money for this project is just hidden elsewhere.
Meanwhile, Lockheed is looking into the “Kinetic Energy Cavity Penetrator Weapon” — a bunker-buster that surrounds the bomb with a gas bubble, so it can plow into the ground ten times further than similar weapons. Testing continues for the Army’s “Deep Digger,” the bunker-buster that uses cannon to tunnel through solid rock, drilling a channel for the bomb. It’s the current record-holder for non-nuclear penetrators, going down twice as deep as the nearest competitor. But still, that’s only 30 feet. The Natanz bunker is down another 45. Which is why we’re getting ready to see that massive explosion outside of Vegas.
UPDATE 04/09/06 10:56 AM: “The Air Force is proposing to build a new ‘prompt global strike’” missile, Inside Defense notes. “Land-based boosters traditionally used for nuclear weapons would be reconfigured and fitted with conventional warheads, according to Air Force Space Command.“
UPDATE 04/10/06 9:02 AM: “The White House, sensitive to President Bush’s image as a war hawk, is trying to play down the possibility of a military strike,” the AP notes.
Meanwhile, the Wonk says that “we are not going to nuke Iran.“
How deep down the Natanz facility is less important than what’s covering it, the Wonk notes. In Natanz’ case, we’re talking about a lot of rock and soil. Which means that 5,000-pound conventional bunker-busters, like the GBU-28, ought to do the job of knocking out Natanz rather nicely.
{ 46 comments… read them below or add one }
This makes it sound like war plans are a new thing. We have plans to invade, attack, and disrupt nearly every hotspot in the world, they’re just stashed away in a drawer somewhere. No need to reinvent the wheel every time a crisis comes around.
“…another story full to the brim of un-named sources, ex-employees and to top it off people who considered resigning (again un-named). Yep a story without even one named source,…”
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Not unlike all the “Senior Administration Officials” who warned of Iraq’s Nukes and how dangerous they were to America.
Gee ShepUK, except Hersh knows who the sources are; Hersh’s editor at the New Yorker would know who the sources are in order to ensure the article has veracity; and unlike the Bush administration, Hersh has far more credibility and far less to gain from deceiving us.
common guys Hersh is a left wing propaganda monger, about as believeable as George Gallaway.
SO there is a plan to use nuclear weapons to prevent another state from aquireing nuclear weapons…. Yeah the NPT is really at work here. The plan might sound tactically feasable, but strategically, its FUBAR.
Hersh was 100% correct about the vice presidents office
going around the usual vetting and information corroborating
experts at the cia in order to get raw, unchecked intelligence,
that turned out to be wrong and purposefully distorted,
in order to set the stage, and make the unsupported case, for
the Iraq invasion. And the Vice Presidents office made the CIA fall on the sword and take responsibility for the bad intel that
the Veep’s office wouldn’t let them check thoroughly in the first place. This is the opposite of the CIA’s usual course of plausible deniability…in this case they were made to assume the opposite of that posture and Take the blame for what The Veeps office was responsible for. My main point, however you feel about hitting Iran, with or without tactical nukes, is that Hersh was Right in that other case and the rest of the world was slow in waking up to that point even though he explicitly laid out the whole story in the New Yorker several years ago and in his book later.
Hersh is usually right. Just because rightwing gasbags scream and whine doesn’t mean he’s wrong.
What people don’t seem to understand when they surmise this article is that we are talking about President George W. Bush. It will be his judgement to drop any bomb, any where.
This being a President who has stated that he acts on “insitinct” I can only imagine what his “instinct?” about dropping bombs on Iran is.
Besides that, dropping any bombs on Iran would have huge geo-political ramifications. I mean HUGE. Russia and China would be pissed, as well as Iran itself, a country that border two of America’s warzones…I mean HUGE…heh.
In other words use one deep penatrator weapon to start a whole, another droped into the same crater to make a deeper hole and finally the biggest one of all to smash thru the remaining concret and destroy the target?
Yeah, all you’d need would be a missile capable of flying into the heart of a nuclear explosion without going off course…
It would take more than you think, davis. Each time you made a hole debris and soil would collapse into it, which would have to be blasted out again. You have to wait for the debris/concussion to settle down after each bomb; which means either loitering over the target or making mutliple passes, neither of which is something any pilot would want to do.
Jeff, share what you’re smoking or get out. We’re never gonna get rid of the Neocons if people like you keep running your mouth off with such nonsense. There is no doubt that the US could ultimately attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and destroy it. The US military capability far exceeds that of Iran, and nothing they have can stand up in a pitched battle. Sure, if we invaded they could bog down nation-building with insurgency Iraq-Style, but their nuclear program would still be gone.
The debate here is not whether we COULD do this, its whether we SHOULD, and HOW.
Jaye,
Since you seem to be against “profiteers” why in the world are you supporting AOL? They are one of the biggest “profiteers” in the world.
Just seems like your activisim stops when you have to make a change in your own life. You like to tell other people how to act, but God forbid you have to change your daily routine.
God forbid, we attack another sovereign nation because I think the Iranians will bring down the Spirits on their Illegal missions with their Russian radar’s, balloons with mines, elephant guns, Tomcats, Phantoms and Mirages. Russian/Chinese satellites and old guys sitting on lawn chairs will notify the Iranians the Spirits are coming and the Revolutionary Guard will do the rest! Stop the Madness before it starts! Lets leave a world our grandkids can enjoy. Will; aol is a joke but I like to laugh! Peace! Jaye
Balloons mines? http://www.worldwideschool.org/library/books/tech/engineering/AeroplanesandDirigiblesofWar/chap16.html . The Army was also looking at a way to use Balloons to stop Helicopters Too. I guess I am just a Zeppelin fan, Peace and Rock on!!! Jaye
Jaye,
You are a complete and utterly ignorant moron. Your posts deserve no other respect or response.
little Skyler; lighten up sweetheart! History will prove me right and by the way Spirits have no radars and could run into a high altitude stationary gas bag weapon just like our choppers ran into power lines in the GW1. Peace!
love Jaye
As much as I would NOT like to see Iran attacked, let alone nuked. I WOULD LIKE NOTHING MORE THAN TO SEE ISRAEL DESTROYED WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS!!!!!!!!The world and the middle east would be a MUCH better place without it. The Jews can damn well go to Antarctica if they want an exclusive enclave!I’m also hoping that CHINA will get involved on Irans behalf if the US attempts an invasion and “regime change” in Iran.
Do we have a micro-nuke to get rid of this stupid neo-nazi Anton ?
Dubya seems to want to nuke other countries to stop them having the bomb, wont be anything to do with all the oil that iran holds in the wells, looks like usa want to get all the oil for themselves instead of devloping alternatives
THESE BUNKERS ARE DEEP UNDERGROUND HARD TO GET INTO. ITS GOT TO BE A LOT HARDER TO GET OUT IF THE FRONT AND BACK DOORS ARE BLASTED SHUT AND COVERED W/ TONS OF ROCK. I SAY LETS SEAL THEM IN, THEN POUND THEM WITH BUSTERS UNLL THEY PENETRATE, TAKE OUT TIME.
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This makes it sound like war plans are a new thing. We have plans to invade, attack, and disrupt nearly every hotspot in the world, they’re just stashed away in a drawer somewhere. No need to reinvent the wheel every time a crisis comes around.
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Will i just hope that Iran is honest to its reason why they are enreaching Uranium, only for their Electrical needs. I hope instead of spending money to make war heads, why not just spend it to the welfare of its people.
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