Pres. Bush gave a primetime speech tonight on immigration and border security (here’s the full text of the speech, and here’s the fact sheet on it). A lot of the speech covered familiar ground for those who have followed the immigration and border security debate closely; but he did provide some new specifics on his plan for border security, the most newsworthy element of which is the proposal to deploy up to 6,000 members of the National Guard on the southern border as a stopgap measure.
Bush discussed this plan in the context of a proposal to increase the number of Border Patrol agents to 18,000 by the end of 2008, from a current level of 12,000. In essence, this proposal is simply fulfilling existing law in the Intelligence Reform and Terrorist Prevention Act of 2004 which mandated a doubling of the size of the Border Patrol over five years. As a stopgap measure leading up to 2008, Bush would deploy a rotation of 6,000 National Guard troops as a temporary measure, commenting in his speech:
One way to help during this transition is to use the National Guard. So in coordination with governors, up to 6,000 guard members will be deployed to our southern border. The Border Patrol will remain in the lead. The guard will assist the Border Patrol by operating surveillance systems, analyzing intelligence, installing fences and vehicle barriers, building patrol roads, and providing training. Guard units will not be involved in direct law enforcement activities — that duty will be done by the Border Patrol.
This initial commitment of guard members would last for a period of one year. After that, the number of guard forces will be reduced as new Border Patrol agents and new technologies come online. It is important for Americans to know that we have enough guard forces to win the war on terror, to respond to natural disasters, and to help secure our border.
To paraphrase Bruce Schneier, this idea is “border security theater” — a political proposal designed to grease the legislative skids in Congress, but one that will have little impact on border security, and even worse, is operationally flawed and quite likely to be a costly diversion from other border security priorities. Consider the following questions:
1. How are these Guardsmen going to be trained? Guarding and patrolling the border requires many types of specialized training: language skills, driving skills, legal knowledge, cultural training, etc. The Border Patrol currently spends about $160 million per year on training to develop and maintain its skilled workforce. Members of the National Guard have not been trained in many of these areas, nor will they immediately possess the skills needed to conduct the activities outlined in the speech — intelligence, surveillance — in a domestic context. Does it really make sense to train them, and then throw away all of this knowledge after a year?
2. Where are they going to live? Unlike with Border Patrol agents, the federal government will be responsibility for providing temporary housing for members of the National Guard deployed at the border. How much is this going to cost? (Although on the other hand, perhaps we’ve just found a use for the 11,000 FEMA trailers that are sitting in Hope, Arkansas).
3. Can they communicate with each other? Do the National Guard units and the Border Patrol have the same types of radios and other communications devices? If not, does that mean that this decision requires a massive new investment in equipment that will have short-term value?
4. How do the Border Patrol and National Guard work together? Can two very different organizations be integrated? What is going to be done to prevent organizational clashes between the National Guard and the Border Patrol? How will questions of decision-making and resource allocation be handled?
Overall, this proposal has all the marks of being costly and ineffective. And this analysis doesn’t even cover the issue of the National Guard already being overstretched as a result of the war in Iraq and the Guard’s disaster management responsibilities, which is also a concern. If border states want to spend their own money sending their National Guard forces to the border, fine. But the federal government shouldn’t pay for it. Instead of wasting money on stopgap measures, we should accelerate the increase in Border Patrol agents, technology investment, or what is probably the best bet strictly from a cost standpoint (although detestable for symbolic reasons), building a complete border fence.
UPDATE 05/16/06 12:45 AM: Below are remarks by Sec. Chertoff last December from an interview with Bill O’Reilly on the idea of sending the National Guard to the border:
Chertoff: Well, the National Guard is really, first of all, not trained for that mission. I mean, the fact of the matter is the border is a special place. There are special challenges that are faced there.…
Chertoff: I think it would be a horribly over-expensive and very difficult way to manage this problem.
He was exactly right, and still is.
– Christian Beckner (crossposted from Homeland Security Watch).
UPDATE 05/17/06 9:52 AM: Here’s a handy stat, courtesy of the National Security Round Table: 6,000 guardsmen “comes out to one soldier for every mile of border broken down into three 8 hour shifts.”
hello? do we have any borders OTHER than “southern”?
what a crock, bush leaque
Where’s the tech angle on this story? I don’t get it.
Oh my god, Murc. You were born 40 years too late. You should have been an East German border guard. It is standard policy in totalitarian states to enforce borders with lethal methods. Of course, here in the US in 2006 it doesn’t make any sense to KILL the people who want to come pick your vegetables for you. Unthinking violent creeps like you are the subtle undercurrent that drive democracies toward collapse.
I’m amazed that there hasn’t been more press about Joint Task Force Six which has been working with Border Patrol and Tribal police for years now.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/dod/jtf-6.htm
Back when I was in the Army, my unit was assigned to JTF 6. We had very strict rules of engagement and yes, we did carry live ammo.
I would imagine that the <6k troops might be assigned to this JTF, or a new one would be developed based upon the idea behind JTF 6.
my 2 cents
Good Morning Folks,
Lets see from President Bush last night, 6K National Guardsmen/women pulling a two week tour on the Mexican Border. Methinks a good investment tip would be a liquor store near the border.
In “Cobra II” Gordon and Tanner say President Bush can’t be held accountable for Iraq because he was only doing what Cheney and Rumsfeld told him to do. He didn’t and still doesn’t have a clue.
Last night we heard Carl Rove speaking. See end of last paragraph.
To change topice, Kudo’s to Noah and David, PS June 06, maybe the best and most honest article on Iraq yet. David I can now understand why you were 86ed. Keep it up guys.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
Not sure what speech you listened to maybe it was the CNN accidental airing of the rehearsal who knows at least it wasnt a big black X, besides I remember all those same mistakes during Clinton era right, right?
But back on point from what I heard it sounded like Bush met half way yes he deployed 6k NG but those ARE NOT going to be chasing down border jumpers. I think he made that clear. What they will be doing is basically sounding like what the minutemen have been doing on steroids military style. Exploiting observation, surveillance resources then with existing signals group telling the Border Patrol were to pick up infiltrators. Another aspect mentioned was NG building barriers, installing those techy sensors monitors, patrol roads, and fences in urban corridors to slow infiltration and speed identification/interception. This all sounds pretty easily within what the NG is capable of.
The housing aspect is a good point thou although I would imagine when not deployed they would be based at the existing bases in the States requesting the deployments.
But if you could put your partisan Bush hatred aside a minute Noah I would love to see a write up on some of that techy equipment Bush mentioned in his speech we were going to exploit. I would guess some spider sensor like networks (short the lethal aspect), security towers like Murc mentioned (short the lethal aspect), of course the now famous UAVs, and also like Murc mentioned some balloon tethered sensors (like the ones we got over every FOB in the sand box over there).
My two cents for the Democrats, until they become a party of ideas and not just the con to whatever Bush proposes they will never be anything more than the bitchy old lady aunt that only sees the gloomy side to everything. Nothing is perfect.
Actually, C-Low, I pitched that story to a big magazine on Friday. So I guess I’m able to put aside that legendary “partisan hartred,” after all!
nms
Just my $.02 worth. But doesn’t the Army Corps of Enginners have Guard Units? From what I read into the speach the Guard will mainly be helping to improve roads, build barriers, install monitoring networks, and operating UAVs (something they are already skilled in)[Not to mention this could provide an intresting training environment where trainees accomplish a real world task as a apart of their training. This way they can get some what operation experiance doing their jobs under combat-like (harsh)conditions, safely in the US) They would do these things until done (i.e. all roads are completed) or untill such time as the Boarder Patrol has enough people to accomplish the mission. As the technology and systems are built we’ll probably see a draw down of the Guard troops and an increase in Boarder Patrol Agents. The remaining Guard will proabbly serve a similure role as the Coast Guard does with the DEA in the counter narc missions.
“currently spends about $160 million per year on training“
waaaaiiiit…
That’s over $10,000 per agent per year.
Nobody’s commented on that?
Dont get your hair up on your back now.
I’m glad to hear that Noah I look forward to it, you do good tech stories. Is that going to be part of the article you have been talking about in the upcoming Popsci? Are you going to cross post that same here after its release by the magazine or a link?
Not knocking your politics its a free country and I understand 06 is fast approaching and all I just miss the defense tech part of defensetech.org. You could of got some good hooks in and at the same time brought some interesting stuff to the table.
I think the guard deployment was merely for show it really wont change much at all on the immigration issue. The meat of that speech was the tech deployment (if it comes to be) and the guest worker program with the no mass deportation talk. Those last two items if implemented will have a possibly powerful impact good/bad depends on your perspective.
It’s just a pitch, right now. The PopSci thing is different, focusing just on Iraq.
And seriously. I wouldn’t spend a whole lot of time trying to divine my supposed ’06 agenda. Or, on second thought, please do. And then tell me what it is!
nms
Give the guy a break for a change. 6000 troops won’t solve the problem but it will buffer the BP folks a bit and there is plenty of slack to take up. The Guard is quiet capable of any Border mission assigned to it. Remember, the primary mission will not be enforcement, but reinforcement. I am curious as to how the Mexican Army patrols that have crossed into Texas will react to this new policy. I will bet they do NOT cross the river again. One thing not mentioned is the fact that adding 8000 more BP still does not get that number of boots on the ground as there are a significant number of BP retiring, out on medicals/stress, etc every year. Where are they penciled in? It is a start folks. Now let’s watch our elected rep’s trash it anyway!
The irony: using the NG as cheap labor in lieu of more Border Patrol officers to guard against the influx of… cheap labor.
Rudderless, Man, you oughta be the local humanitarian services rep. for the imported labor. You must never have been to the Euro-union, the cheap labor now owns them. And the welfare bill in NM for no compensation for health services, DWI’s and the whole concept of Alteca/Aztlan, you gotta be doing some of the good stuff dude. You should come to downtown Baghdad for more training dude, they’ll luv and welcome drivel like yours. I do Not.