Did you miss it? Im a little out of the loop on the far side of the Pacific, so I did. But yesterday was the annual CHINA IS COMING TO GET US!! day. Im always stumped on an appropriate gift for the special occasion… Flowers? A card? The most expensive weapons system ever?
Thats right folks, it’s time for the Pentagon’s yearly report on Chinas military power. Get ready for the big headlines and what are sure to be some choice quotes from the SecDef and your talking-head of choice.
In the coming weeks and months, the usual China-hawks are sure to mine the report for every quote that might make China look like the next evil empire. From the opposite extreme, habitual critics of the Pentagon will likely dig up the same excerpts to paint a department full of Sino-phobes. This AFP piece makes a good start at finding the choicest of these quotes, although with the good form (or indecision) of allowing you, the reader, to decide whether youre anti-Pentagon or anti-China. But the full study itself is actually much more balanced than these quotes would imply.
The report accurately recounts the undeniable fact that Chinas military is going through tremendous amounts of modernization and improvement. It will undoubtedly become a global force that solidifies the greater influence that China has in world affairs. The study also notes, however, that politically and strategically, China has not been making moves that indicate a nation looking to throw its weight around militarily: showing continually increasing interest in effective international organizations; contributing to UN peacekeeping missions in Africa and the Caribbean; making efforts to resolve border tensions with India and be a moderating force in Indo-Pakistani tensions; playing a pivotal role in seeking a diplomatic solution to the North Korea nuclear issue. All seem to illustrate a China interested in becoming a responsible international stakeholder by taking on a greater share of responsibility for the health and success of the global system.
Taiwan is, of course, the fundamental exception to China not throwing its weight around. The report discusses in detail Chinas continuing efforts to gain the upper-hand in a potential military conflict in the Taiwan Strait, with a particular emphasis on deterring or counteracting foreign intervention (including Chinas likely long-term goal of acquiring or developing a carrier-force in support of broader efforts towards sea-denial). There is little room for doubt or question as to how seriously China considers the Taiwan issue it is the exception to Chinas otherwise very pragmatic foreign and security policy. Even here, though, the DOD study points out that in recent years and in the likely future, China has been interested in pursuing all means that may resolve the Taiwan issue: political, economic, cultural, legal, diplomatic, and military. For example, it draws particular attention to Beijings posture of restraint following President Chen [Shui-bian]s decision to suspend the National Unification Council and National Unification Guidelines.
The best doomsday scenario, of course, is of a China-US confrontation Taiwan is just a possible flashpoint. In this vein, much can be made of the reports repeated mention of Chinas efforts to observe US military forces in action and apply lessons learned. (A recent RAND report made the same observations.) The big thing to notice, though, is that almost every example of this watchfulness has as much to do with China wanting to emulate US military tactics and equipment, as wanting to counter them. A particularly ironic example of these lessons learned can be found in the Pentagons analysis of why China will be deterred from military action against Taiwan in any but the most extreme situations: high monetary costs of war at home, an expensive reconstruction program in Taiwan, political condemnation and repercussions within the international community and the possibility that an insurgency against the occupation could tie up substantial forces for years.
Hmm Its been a long time since I took a psychology classes, but thats called projecting, right?
The report isnt without a few oddities, though. My particular favorite is when it notes a resurgence in the study of ancient Chinese statecraft within the PLA, apparently catching the crucial development of a new edition of Sun Zis Art of War on the PLA’s reading list.
The bottom line of the report is that Chinas military modernization has more do with seeking the trappings of a world-class power than pursuing a particular, military-minded agenda. Ultimately, the primary motivation for these rapid expenditures can be found in the fact that the PLA is transforming from a mass infantry army designed to fight a protracted war of attrition within its territory to a modern, professional force.
The Pentagon actually mentions little, if anything, thats new from last years report. Nonetheless, if the last few years are any indication, were now in for a few months of reciprocal criticisms and no, youre the long-term threat to international peace and security. There had been reasons for hope of improved military relations between China and the US, with recent China visits from National Defense University and the Combat Commander for the Pacific that culminated in an invitation to China to view US exercises near Guam. Now, well have to see what, if anything, comes of these overtures.
If, rather than requiring annual reports on Chinas military, Congress had required reports whenever there were significant developments or changes, it seems unlikely there would have been a report at all this year. This requirement has largely become today what the annual review of Chinas Most Favored Nation status was in the 90s: a yearly exercise in bilateral nipple-twisters that does little but restate trends that havent changed much from the last year and arent likely to change much in the next.
– Matthew Tompkins
{ 7 comments… read them below or add one }
Good Morning Folks,
Mesmells a Red Herring on a string here. Was it not just last years that the Quad. on China dismissed China as a short term or even Med. term threat, not they are going after Japan over energy rights, what gives?
Since China’s Defense spending is estimated in this report betwee $35 and 150 Billion Dollars, it seems no one expert is exactly sure, I’m not sure how the United States know anything regarding China’s future intents.
Logic here say China isn’t going to do anything as long as the are buying U.S. Treasury Bonds, and with inflation showing it head the interest on those puppies is only going up.
This report appears like Iran and “Nukes” something to divert public attention from the Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that have gone from bad to desaster.
Here is a question for all my friend who still support this administration, how did we manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of Victory in Afghanistan?
We are now on our fourth annual Spring Offsenve in the South Eastern part of the country. It also appears that a Marine MEU has been sent to Afghanistan, isn’t this called a troop increase?
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
I for one welcome our new Chinese overlor-…..er….i mean….ah just read the report.
if china attacked tiawan the us would respond. the chinese know that an invasion of tiawan means massive retaliation if not all out war with the US. thats bad news for everyone but espically china because the war would be fought on their doorstep. no country on earth has the ability to project power like the US that is only the us is capable of fighting a full scale war outside their own landmass. that requires at the very least a navy that defend itself in blue water engagements. basically 1 us battle group could take the chinese navy.
You are not Important and Ignorant! The US military cannot handle another war especially with Iran looking close to war. Taiwan keeps edging on the PRC and soon the PRC will attack and invade! The PRC China will say it punished a renegade province and the Anti secession law will make it legal and the US will let it happen because China is a most favored trading partner and it is an internal matter!
We should invade n take over China now while we have the chance. We have the Power to take over the World, we should use it before they take over us.
President Bush is Correcet when he says this current war is a battle for good n evil. Many times in the Past Muslims have destoryed Countries like ourself cause the People lost the will to Fight. Currently we are being invaded by Mexico,it could very well be the Muslims who are the Drug lords in Mexico who wants to destory us from within. We must fight an win this War before Pres Bush has to delcare Martil Law cause someone has destoryed one of our cities
So the PLA will be deterred from war. What about the US.Had China been weak like in Mao’s time the US will have said Taiwan is an independent coutry.
But no China can defend itsef from US attack.
You see the US will only use nuclear weapons against defenceless countries.If these countries can hit back it will think twice.
No sane US president will use nuclear weapons to defend Taiwan if its at the cost of LA,New york etc unless it wants regime change in Beijing.
In that case the US will have to pay ahigher price.
The Pentagon better note it will be fighting a major power and not some miniscule Mid East state.
The casulties suffered by US forces in Vietnam will just be insignificant.US territoery will be subjected to attack for the first time even with missile shield.Of course China will cease to exist
but the US will take generations to recover.
So Teller’s wors may ring true. In ww4 people will fight with stones. Over to the Pentagon.