What to make of the news that North Korea’s “115-foot Taepodong-2 missile stands ready to take off from Musudan-Ri, a remote village on the northeast coast of North Korea, after engineers apparently completed loading liquid fuel into its rocket boosters”?
The International Herald-Tribune says that “a successful test would provide the strongest indication yet that North Korea was developing the capacity to deliver chemical, biological or perhaps nuclear warheads to targets as far away as the continental United States.” The Times notes that it “could also ignite a political chain reaction in Japan, the United States and China, which have been trying to re-engage North Korea in stalled talks about its nuclear weapons program. The Bush administration might step up financing for missile defense; Japan might increase its missile defense efforts as well, while militant Japanese politicians might push to reconsider the nation’s nuclear weapons options.“
Center for Defense Information missile guru Victoria Samson takes the threat seriously, too. But she cautions us not to get too caught up in the hype.
This [move to test] probably is a combination of several factors: NK trying to press the United States into sitting down in one-on-one talks, which NK would love but the United States is unwilling to concede and instead obstinately sticks to the six-party talks formula, which clearly is doing so well; NK trying its old stand-by of ratcheting up pressure in order to get concessions (it’s backed off in the past after having done so); and NK wanting to test new missile engines. I think that the whole hullabaloo about this now showing that NK can strike all of the United States is just that — a hullabaloo. (emphasis mine)
Arms Control Wonk Jeffrey Lewis reminds us that this “Taepodong-2″ isn’t North Korea’s name for its missile; it’s an American designation for a system we really don’t know much about. How many stages the missile has, how it gets from point A to point B — all of that remains a mystery. So these Drudge headlines about “A MISSILE THAT CAN REACH AMERICA” are a bit on the misleading side. The Wonk pulls this quote from General Burwell B. Bell, commander of U.S. Forces Korea:
Ive looked at this in some detail. The Taepo Dong II and III missiles, as we call them, are of the kind that, at least in theory, could produce intercontinental capability. Up through the late 90s, there was a fairly active program in North Korea to develop that missile technology and potentially to test it. In the years since the late 90s, the last six, seven years, we have seen very little activity by the North Koreans to actively continue to develop and test long-range missile systems. Theres no doubt in my mind that they have the capability to begin more technological investigation and to begin a regiment to lead to testing and potentially to lead to fielding. But theres no evidence of it right now.
There’s a bunch more imagery and analysis at GlobalSecurity.org.
UPDATE 01:38 PM: Interesting take on the situation from Stratfor:
North Korea’s perspective, another missile launch may not be a bad tactic. Washington and Tokyo are both suggesting they will issue strongly worded statements, enact further economic restrictions against the North (not that there is much more they can cut off) and maybe even take Pyongyang before the U.N. Security Council, where North Korean allies Russia and China sit waiting with a veto. In fact, if history is a guide, North Korea — rather than being ostracized by the 1998 launch over Japan — found itself just a few years later normalizing relations with Italy, Australia, the Philippines, Britain, Belgium, The Netherlands, Canada, Spain, Germany, New Zealand and Luxembourg. And in the midst of this diplomatic offensive, Pyongyang hosted the South Korean president in the first inter-Korean summit.
There is, however, another angle to the current posturing. China has been conspicuously quiet about all the hype of an imminent North Korean missile test.… Chinese officials, particularly those in the military, see a clear renewal of U.S. attention and pressure on the Chinese military.
Beijing’s silence as its neighbor is posing for satellite flybys suggests a certain sense of complicity on China’s part. North Korea remains a valuable asset for China in its dealings with the United States: So long as Washington is unwilling to strike militarily at North Korea, Beijing remains the central point of contact with the North Koreans and wields the most influence in Pyongyang. A North Korean missile test, or even a stand-down from a near-test, would give Beijing additional cards to play in Washington…
Beijing can subtly remind Washington that, should the United States wish to refrain from bringing too much pressure to bear on China, it in turn can “reason” with the North Koreans. But if Washington keeps the pressure up, the message would go, there is no telling what those crazy North Koreans are capable of.
UPDATE 06/20/06 7:58 AM: “Three senior U.S. officials” told the Washington Post “that reports that North Korea appeared to have completed fueling the missile are based on incomplete intelligence.”
U.S. satellites have observed liquid fuel canisters being placed near the missile, but officials said there was no confirmation that fueling took place. “We can’t say anything for sure,” said one top official with access to the intelligence.
Loading fuel into the rocket boosters for the Taepodong-2 missile would almost certainly suggest a launch will take place, because it is difficult to siphon out the fuel. But North Korea has a long history of doing things simply for the benefit of American satellites — and to bring the world’s attention back to the Stalinist state.
A year ago, the world was on edge after reports that North Korea might test a nuclear weapon — and one report even suggested the evidence showed that viewing stands had been built. No test took place.
(Big ups: TP)
UPDATE 06/20/06 10:43 AM: “I have a suspicion, a fairly strong one, that whatever’s on the pad at Musudan-ri is considerably smaller than the canonical TD-2 [Taepodong-2] that people have been talking about, maybe just an improved version of the 1998 TD-1,” sage reader AT writes. “It would be nice to know if the US or Japan actually have imagery that shows the dimensions of the present rocket.“
AT points us to this report from South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo:
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service says North Korea is unlikely to have injected fuel into a missile it may be about to launch, according to a member of the National Assemblys Intelligence Committee. Unnamed U.S. officials claimed Sunday the North had already fueled what they allege is an inter-continental ballistic missile at a launch pad in North Hamgyeong Province.
“At the National Assembly Intelligence Committee meeting, we were told the judgment of the NIS that it is difficult to determine whether the fuel has been loaded,” Chung Hyung-keun, a Grand National Party member of the committee told reporters.
“In the area of the launch platform, there are 40 fuel containers, an amount insufficient, it would seem, to provide the 15 tons of kerosene and 45 tons of oxidizing agent needed to fill the missile up.“
The lawmaker said the NIS pointed out that the North had on a prior occasion set up a missile and left it for 50 days without fueling it, only to clear it off the platform later. The NIS did not specify when that incident took place.
Good Morning Folks,
I see it about time for the Summer Solstice, the Druids are getting ready to dance at Stone Hinge, the Dodgers are tanking and the North Koreans are bein bad boys again.
This annual event, that just by coincidence happens every year just as the U.S. Congress is in the process of comming up with next years DoD budget. Do I smell another $10 Billion for the “Boondoggle” called the Missile Defence(less) System”.
Like the trained dogs the are, the North Koreans are taking there cue and comming onto the world stage and being the boggyman. When will the American people wise up to this annual summer rerun.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
bah…it’s just one stupid missile. send a couple of F-22’s out and blow it up. done deal. how’s that for ‘harsh response’.
i sincerely believe peace is d right sorting in dis case.nk should be summon b4 d security council for discuss on d termination of dis crazy facility or structures so call missiles.storing as a pride to their technology is alright but is that really d case.as d saying goes,it can go as far to d northern continent,then a rat is around d corner.i wont say a disciplinary action should be taken against them but the world should keep talking to them,its not d american,s government affairs alone.we don’t want another war be whatever class its classified.all forms of budget should pend for now and with time,peace will prevail.nk should be kept under a closer[tighter] watch still.
NORTH KOREA:MISSILE THREAT,OR MISSILE HYPE?—-i sincerely believe peace is d right sorting in dis case.nk should be summon b4 d security council for discuss on d termination of dis crazy facility or structures so call missiles.storing as a pride to their technology is alright but is that really d case.as d saying goes,it can go as far to d northern continent,then a rat is around d corner.i wont say a disciplinary action should be taken against them but the world should keep talking to them,its not d american,s government affairs alone.we don’t want another war be whatever class its classified.all forms of budget should pend for now and with time,peace will prevail.nk should be kept under a closer[tighter] watch still.
Another angle: What a treasure of data for the US and Japanese BMD efforts if they do light this one off. The last test was pretty much a surprise. Now, with Aegis ships in the Sea of Japan, a new X-band radar in Japan, probably a few airborne platforms forward (anybody seen HALO 2 lately?), and lots of new command and control arrangements to test between the US and Japan, a real live missile shot could be a treat.
Well, assuming it doesn’t fall on anything.
Which makes for an interesting decision for the President: If they launch, do we try an intercept?
I’ve been thinking along the same lines as AirSix…
a) Is whatever KJI might stand to gain from this test worth the price he’d pay? Not diplomatically, but strategically — he’d lose the psychological effect of having a mystery weapon (especially if it underperforms in testing), and we’d acquire a lot of data from his test. b) If you’re GWB and the test takes place, do you order the Navy to intercept it? Seems like there are a lot of reasons to do it, but on the other hand, if the intercept fails (and remember, even Aegis has never had an operationally realistic test), that’s pretty embarassing. c) If the test happens, which direction will the sucker be aimed at? Does KJI fire in the general direction of the US and let it fall short? Or does he pick a bearing that lets him demonstrate full range for hitting the US (assuming he’s capable of that) but without, of course, actually being aimed directly at the US?
Interesting (and somewhat frightening, though not earth-shattering) situation, with lots of questions whose answers might reveal a lot about the players. Assuming this doesn’t all fizzle quietly.
Maybe you’re right. The North Koreans are just having a bake sale. If we would just be nice to them, I’m sure they’ll be our friends. They’re not mean, they’r just misunderstood. We need to be more sensitive.
Well guys.… they launched them.… now what? Recover them.… see if they’re nukes?
The long range missile ‘failed’.…
who can blame NK for tooling up in light of being classed as part of Bush’s axes of Evil. Iraq one of the other countries included is now pretty much in civil war– over 3 years on.
Plus NK have had to rebuild their country once before from scratch.
The country is poor. Arable land is less than 20%. Who can blame them for protecting what they do have left?
north korea.just look at them now that’s like a little boy wont someone too see him again. hes about too get more thin kim needs usa on hes ass.**==
Let’s Be Honest about Missile Defense, North Korea, China and Russia
By John E. Carey
We have to be completely honest with ourselves and with each other on the subjects of Missile Defense, North Korea, China and Russia.
When North Korea elected to launch several medium and long range ballistic missiles on America
my opinion about dis-armament-is the us could over-ride the salt-abm-inf-treaties by building defense industries in japan camaflargue-build up bigger atomic warheads missiles minatized by japanese for us defense to be redeplored back into your silos complete overnight up to 100,000– or more mx missiles minuteman111-pershing and moved back into europe just as fast by camaflague them there after they come off the production line in japan-without any open treaty or paper trail or involvement with japan government or regonition of such treaty as to upset the status quo-russia/china/cuba/nicaragua/mexico-with soviets on your border by us surrender to russia on december,1987-:
http://victorian.fortunecity.com/manet/404/rg/mx.htm
http://victorian.fortunecity.com/manet/404/rg/ns.htm
http://www.fatimacrusader.com/cr24/cr24pg17.asp
http://www.fatimacrusader.com/cr23/cr23pg05.asp
dont blame for the fatima crusader taking of list on their web page-FORCE THEM TO PUT IT BACK ON AGAIN-THEN YOU KNOW WHY I WRITE TO YOU-YOU WILL BLOW YOUR STACK-BLOW UP BILLISTIC-ANY WONDER THEY TOOK IT OFF THEY DONT WANT YOU TO SEE THE TRUTH WHILE THEY DISPACH YOUR TROOP LEVEL TO MIDDLE EAST SO YOU DONT COME BACK TO RESCUE USA-YOUR A HAS BEEN-SOLD OUT BY TRAITOR GENERALS-SENATOR MCCATHY-GENERAL DOUGLAS MCARTHUR WARN YOU-THERE NO SUBSTATUTE FOR VICTORY-OLD SOLDIERS NEVER DIE-THEY JUST-FADE AWAY?
MCCATHY-ALL I AM SAYING IS IF WE DO NOT STOP COMMUNIST SUBVERSION WITHIN OUR GOVERNMENT MILITARY THIS COMMITTEE WILL SEE IF THIS NATION LIVES OR DIES-THAT IS SIR-SURRENDER TO COMMUNIST RUSSIA-1954
lets see russia has aclua class submarines-better than your lot has electromagnetic weapons david rockefeller gave them plus collins family
http://www.thewatcherfiles.com/bloodlines/collins.htm
http://www.thewatcherfiles.com/bloodlines/rockefeller.htm
http://www.freemasonrywatch.org/LATimes.html
to do away with JFK so we can now disarm the usa into vietnam and allow comet hit with ww3 by building russia up for mi6 that control the kremlin for soviet queen of england that finace russia/china/cuba/nicaragua-from bank of england
http://www.illuminati-news.com/black-nobility.htm
http://www.tldm.org
go under search for russia/china/latin america
nicaragua-electro-magnetic weapons against the usa
your had it!finished-sold out!
My father fought against the North Koreans in 1954–54. I would hate to see his military efforts were in vain.
This is a game of dominoes. Eventually it will pit the U.S. against China, Russia, Iran, France, and all the other nations other than Great Britain that would have interests in seeing the Empire of the USA fall.
DEAR RESPECTFUL,
Permit me to inform you of my desire of going into business relationship with you. I got your name and contact from classified . I prayed over it and selected your contact among other contacts I got from there. I am Anthony koli(JR) the only son of late DR,Anthony koli my father was a very wealthy Cocoa merchant in Abidjan the economic capital of Ivory coast, my father was poisoned to death by his business associates on one of their outings on a business trip. My mother died when I was a baby and since then my
father took me so special. Before the death of my father on JULY 2004 in a private hospital here in Abidjan he secretly called me on his bed side and told me that he has the sum of
TWELVE MILLION UNITED STATE DOLLARS USD. ($12,000 000) left in fixed / suspense
account in one of the prime bank here in Abidjan ‚that he used my name as his only son for the next of Kin in depositing of the fund. He also explained to me that it was because of this wealth that he was poisoned by his business associates.
That I should seek for a foreign partner in a country of my choice where I will transfer this money and use it for investment purpose such as real estate management or hotel management. , I am honourably seeking your assistance in the following ways:
(1) To serve as a guardian of this fund since I am only 20years.
(2) To make arrangement for me to come over to your country to further my Education and to secure a resident permit in your country Moreover, I am willing to offer you a good percentage from the total sum as compensation for your effort/input after the
successful transfer of this fund into your nominated account overseas.
Furthermore, you will indicate your option towards assisting me as I believe that this transaction would be concluded within fourteen (14 days you signify interest to assist me). Please indicate interest by writing to my private email address:anthonykoli AT yahoo DOT com
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Anthony koli
My husband sits on the wall in S.Korea waiting to get his orders. All I ask is that when we do what ever is done that god brings all our heros home.
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Virtual net works, virtual role of the game, I did not as him what people. It is only a game; happy is the purpose of the game. I chat with him happy. I have an on line he will not be alone to upgrade and earn GuildWars money, but rather for the first time chat with me, in this way we often sit together.
Later, in January of this year, I have entered into this long hoped for world. Following in their previous game, I have some experience, at first I bought some RF cp to arm my number, so I grew up gradually. Later, I joined the empire of darkness, I recognize some friends. Later matured, I separated from the darkness; to join a trade union has just established a new, expanding trade union began a journey, and I recognized a lot of friends.
Looking back at the past, in those days, we played together; we have no much rappelz money, we have no need equipment and no senior friends too us, but I am still playing very happy. Rappelz left everywhere in our laughter. There is only one reason is that I have her around, I would meet, everything becomes unimportant. One thing I feel very sorry, that is when I married her, mo gorgeous fireworks, mo friends of blessing. Now I have heart, I feel wronged her, I am sorry to her.
I always adhere to and keep a distance from everyone. Until now, I did not have a true friend, although I was a lonely, although I did not like the other players that they have many friends send them cheap zeny, I must be rely on myself, at least I will not hurt anybody, and perhaps this is kind of happiness.
???????- forum– ????- ???????- ??????- car– ???- ?????- ?????- Design– kooora– yasser– ball– kaka– ?????- foot ball– sport– Untitled– ?????? ??? ?????? — ????HomeUser ProfileArchives
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IF YOUR HOMETOWN BECAME A TARGET FOR AN APPROACHING NUCLEAR MISSILE, WOULD YOU HAVE ADVANCED WARNING IF IT’S ARRIVAL? I CAN ALMOST ANSWER THAT QUESTION…NO. YOUR NATION’S GOVERNMENT WILL NOT PANIC THEIR PEOPLE WHO THEY CANNOT SAVE ANYWAY. YOU WILL NOT HEAR ABOUT IT ON A RADIO STATION. THE TELEVISION STATION YOU ARE WATCHING WILL NOT BE INTERUPTED BY A “SPECIAL NEWS BULLETIN”. IN ABOUT A BILLIONTH OF A SECOND, YOU AND EVERYTHING FOR MILES AROUND YOU WILL BE INSTANTLY VAPORIZED. YOU WILL NOT EVEN FEEL THE ONE MILLION DEGREE HEAT FROM THE FLASH AND THE FOLLOWING THURMOSPHERE EXPLOSION. IT WILL HAPPEN TO QUICKLY. IF YOU ARE NOT A BORN AGAIN CHRISTIAN ON THAT DAY, YOU WILL NOT HAVE THE CHANCE TO GET RIGHT WITH GOD BEFORE YOU ARE GONE FROM THIS LIFE. YOU WILL SUDDENLY FEEL THE SCORTCHING HEAT OF HELL, PROBABLY MUCH HOTTER THAN THAT NUCLEAR BLAST CAN EVER BE. IT WILL LEAVE YOU WONDERING HOW YOU GOT THERE. IT WILL BE TO LATE FOR YOU THEN. YOU WILL SUFFER FOR ETERNITY. THERE WILL BE NO TELLING HOW BAD YOU WISHED YOU HAD SALVATION. THERE WILL BE NO TELLING HOW BAD YOU WISHED THAT MISSILE WENT SOMEWHERE ELSE. BECAUSE YOU WILL NOT BE GOING SOMEWHERE ELSE. IT WILL BE TO LATE FOR YOU THEN.