“North Korea test-fired at least six missiles over the Sea of Japan on Wednesday morning, including an intercontinental ballistic missile that apparently failed or was aborted 42 seconds after it was launched,” the Times is reporting.
Of the launchings, intelligence officials focused most of their attention on the intercontinental missile, called the Taepodong 2, which American spy satellites have been watching on a remote launching pad for more than a month.
It is designed to be capable of reaching Alaska, and perhaps the West Coast of the United States, but American officials who tracked its launching said it fell into the Sea of Japan before its first stage burned out.
“The Taepodong obviously was a failure that tells you something about capabilities,” Stephen Hadley, President Bush’s national security adviser, told reporters in a phone call on Tuesday evening in Washington…
The other missiles that the North fired appeared to be a mix of short-range Scud-C missiles and intermediate-range Rodong missiles, of the kind that the North has sold to Iran, Pakistan and other nations. Those missiles also landed in the Sea of Japan…
Intelligence from American satellite photographs indicated in mid-June that the North was proceeding with the test-firing of the Taepodong 2 at a launching pad on North Korea’s remote east coast. Satellite photographs showed that the North Koreans had taken steps to put fuel into the missile, but the missile sat there until Wednesday morning, leading to speculation [especially on this site — ed.] that the North was simply staging the event in order to gain attention from the United States…
But the North contradicted expert opinion by launching its long-range missile in predawn darkness today.
The surprise launch is bad news for Pyongyang, Joe Cirincione says over at Arms Control Wonk HQ.
The North Koreans have now blown it by actually testing a system that was always worth much more as a bargaining chip than as a military capability. Continued attempts to hype the threat (by either the DPRK or the Missile Defense Agency) will now be much harder to make with a straight face… [And] all those reporters and analysts who have been talking about both the North Korean missiles and the US anti-missiles as if both were proven capabilities should slap themselves in the face and snap out of it.
UPDATE 07/05/06 12:26 AM: David here. Missile defense expert Philip Coyle from the Center for Defense Information just emailed me with this:
I’m sure you noticed that the press has been confused about how many missiles North Korea actually fired. At first it was three, then four or five, then six. But the Yonhap news agency in South Korea says North Korea fired 10 missiles, not six. At the time of Tony Snow’s press briefing with National Security Advisor Steve Hadley, the White House thought only three had been fired.
And at this writing Northern Command will only confirm six. So maybe our military has been confused too.
This displays one of the vulnerabilities of missile defense. If you don’t see all of the missiles an enemy fires, or if they fire too many, even the most futuristic missile defenses we can imagine will be overwhelmed.
And by coordinating its missile launches with the U.S. shuttle launch, North Korea showed that any country can aspire to have the capability to conduct peaceful space launches.
David again. Just to clarify on Phil’s behalf, that last comment about “peaceful space launches” was intended as sarcasm.
UPDATE 08:03 AM: The Norks just fired off another one.
UPDATE 09:12 AM: For a completely different view, check out what Stratfor has to say: “A failed launch may ultimately offer North Korea greater choices than other scenarios might have.”
Had Pyongyang succeeded, even Seoul might have thought twice about continued economic contacts with the North. And had the United States or Japan shot the missile down, Pyongyang would very quickly have been forced to decide whether to consider the move an act of war and launch a counterstrike, or just complain loudly and demonstrate its own impotence. A failed test, if a test was to be carried out, provides renewed avenues for negotiation.
China will be the first to offer its services in figuring out what next for North Korea. Pyongyang will be more beholden to Beijing following the test, as North Korea tries to gauge its options and how best to play down the failure. It has lost its missile leverage now, and will need its northern neighbor even more. For its part, China will take this added leverage with the North for its own negotiations with the United States.
The failed launch may bring Washington back into the six-party talks or to the informal six-party talks Beijing recently suggested as U.S. officials breathe a collective sigh of relief at not having been forced to decide whether to try to shoot down the North Korean missile. Thus, Washington can say it was ready for the launch without having had to prove its anti-missile system in a real-life situation. And the United States also enjoys the advantage of a North Korea weakened for now by the failed test.
The question now is what happens inside Pyongyang. A failure of a major economic, political and military expenditure could quickly lead to infighting as blame is assigned and passed and next steps are debated. While North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has shown himself quite adept at managing his place in power, the loss of a key political lever is sure to create at least a brief internal political crisis. While the North may have already thought through the implications of failure, thinking and facing reality are rather different. If Pyongyang makes quick, clear steps in the coming days, it will suggest it was either well-prepared for failure or aborted the launch itself. If not, expect to see the North close in on itself, and perhaps turn to neighbor China for advice and protection.
Either way, a major shift in North Korean behavior can be expected in the coming months.
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i honestly think that north korea is just trying to scare many americans by pulling this stunt on July 4th. they need to be put away now!!! the longer we wait the bigger the war will be!
kolin Koehl
I bet you feel silly about those posts claiming hoax now :>
lol…yeah they should of just let it keep collecting dust on the pad…Now everyone knows how far behind there missile tech really is.
Clearly they launched it at an hour that they hoped no one would be watching, if it was a success…they would no doubt be bragging that they shot there first missile capable of hitting the US, On our nations birthday.
BTW, defensetech…I did notice how you managed to still bash the US ABM program, even when these test had nothing to do with it. “rolls eyes”
I’m at a loss trying to understand the “peaceful space program” spin I’m seeing on this site. The NORKs are threatening to “annihilate” us and yet you’re trying to put a “peaceful purposes” cast to their activities.
Who is paying your bills these days that you’re trying to twist reality so hard?
There’s always the possibility that the taepodong was self-destructed…it doesn’t seem to be in NK’s current persona, but perhaps they were attempting to mask their true capabilities.
The taepodong’s initial stage oxidizes a gasoline/kerosene mix, which seems to typically be a more stable platform than other fuels, as that mix is in liquid state at room temperature. Liquid oxygen (or the standard russian ak-27I, in this case), is of course quite corrosive, and highly volatile.
If globalsec is accurate, this thing does seem to have more than enough thrust to send a payload to US shores: http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/td-2-specs.htm
Evan:
Sure do!
nms
I think Noah’s being ironic about the “peaceful space program,” bro. Remember these clowns were claiming they were trying to launch a satellite back in 1998 instead of failing to have a ballistic missile test.
I mean, yeah, they’d probably love to put a satellite up but that would be even further out of their league…
Washington DC–Yesterday, a large number of Korean missiles were fired into the air. Reports indicate most of them exploded above US population centers.
John Smith, of New York City, said “My God, I couldn’t believe it. There were these huge explosions, and fire rained down from the sky. My dog hid under the couch, and my 2 year old son began crying. I just didn’t know what to do.“
Some casualties have been reported. Lee Roy Johnson, of Jackson Hole, Mississippi, was critically injured by one of the missiles. “He saw one of them miss-iles come down to the ground. It hadn’t blown up, and he said ‘I’ll be derned if I let good money go to waste,’” said his wife, Jolene. “He walked over to it, kicked it, and said it was a dud. Then he bent down with his cigarette lighter and tried to get it goin’. The blame thing blowed up right in his face. He was a screamin’ and a hootin’ and hollerin’. I looked at my boy Jethro and said ‘Look at yer pappy. Them Koreans did this to him.’”
Fortunately, injuries appear to be light. Most of the missiles appear to have exploded in mid-air, sparing the country from any serious damage, though grassfires were reported over drier states.
“We thought the Russians were dangerous,” said General “Thunderbolt” Ross. “Yeah, they had nukes, but we never imagined how many missiles those funny little people in Korea could manufacture. They’ve made millions of them. MILLIONS. And, they’ve demonstrated the capabilities to get these weapons to American soil.“
Known defense blogger Noah Schactman notes “This is another indication of wasted defense dollars. We’ve spent billions on an anti-ballistic missile program, and yet Korea was able to get literally millions of these rockets into our airspace. These things never showed up on radar, and our waste of money program never got to fire even a single shot. We are defenseless, and this “Star Wars” program has been a failure from the start. Obviously, they were just toying with us yesterday. I’m told some of the missiles even exploded into the shape of a giant American flag. They’re mocking our 4th of July holiday, showing that our so-called ‘free’ nation is defenseless before their military might.”
I think the Norks blinked and hit the self-destruct button. If they had gone with the missile and BMD took it down it would have instantly ended their missile threat and at the same time sent Japan, S. Korea, the world begging full tilt boogie to get under the US BMD umbrella. A live enemy fired missile intercept would have cemented BMD and if we could hit the long range the mid-ranges would have been proven useless as-well.
This way they save face by not backing down, don
Ohh and by the way on the # of missiles launched confusion. I wouldn
C-Low:
I’m assuming Phil Coyle’s “peaceful” comment is pure sarcasm… I’ll ask Axe, who did the interview.
Re: shoe. It’s yummy. I love it. And I’ve saved a slice for those people who were wailing that the Norks were about to be able to hit us with an ICBM.
Also, maybe I’m being thick, but I don’t get how this is a “win” for BMD.
nms
I watched the various reports as they came in and I have a problem with the narrative.
http://cernigsnewshog.blogspot.com/2006/07/4th-of-july-damb-squib.html
Look. Every single other missile was a shorter range Rodong-1 (a Scud copy). The Pentagon and the Japanese at first seemed confident the failed launch wasn’t a Taepongdo-2. Then some faceless guy from State pops up and says it was — and everyone else scurries to get “on message”. Color me sceptical.
Where’s the proof the only missile that failed is the one that all the fearmongering has been about? Without that hard proof, I will take the Occam’s Razor explanation — it was another Scud copy that just happened to fail on takeoff. The administration then decided to make political hay while the sun shines and the Pentagon and Japanese for a while got caught behind the story curve. It fits not only the events of yesterday but also this administration’s history.
It amazes me that the invertebrate press corps, having been lied to over Iraqi WMD intelligence and so much more, goes on blithely presenting this administration as being trustable when it says anything at all. They should be picking at the gaps in the administration’s storyline and demanding explanations. Instead they will take the administration at its belated word.
Regards, Cernig
Good Morning Folks,
Oh goody the North Koreans did it, still are according to an AP wire story the A.M., and the world didn’t come to an end.
I guess the story that is trying to bury itself here is, how many missiles were launched, 3,6, 7,10 still launching? and how long did Taepongdo-2 stay up, 35, 40, 42 sec. how long?
Since this event was anything but a surprise and every spy in the sky was watching how come we don’t know many were launched and from where?
I guess it’s time for SSN Jimmy Carter to start doing some bottom scratching in the Sea of Japan.
Meanwhile this show just how much respect Sec. of State Mzzz… Condoleezza has around the world. I assume Noah that whie this was happening she was out “Shoe Shopping” over on 5th. Ave.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
I would call it a win because they didn
All word on the Typeofdong-2 is that it failed, not that it was aborted. I’m pretty sure if it were and abort the NORK’s would be screaming that it were so quite loudly, becuase their foreign policy relies on people thinking they have an ICBM, not a pipe-dream.
As for not being able to track all the launches, we detected and tracked a missile launch that lasted under a minute on no warning hundreds of miles away? Sounds like a good job to me.
I’m wonderfully amused that just a few days ago this site claimed that the administration’s claims that N.Korea was preparing to perform missile tests was a world-class hoax. Now that the missile tests have been performed comments focus on the administrations presumed failure to know with certainty how many missiles were fired. I liked the comment from one poster saying that nobody was surprised by the tests — given that you claimed the warnings were a world-class hoax and that the tests weren’t actually going to happen I imagine that this site’s contributors were actually very surprised.
Hey Bob:
I’m more than willing to eat crow (or shoe or whatever) about the “hoax” series of comments. Check out the mea culpas below.
But, just so we’re clear, I never wrote that “the administration’s claims that N.Korea was preparing to perform missile tests was a world-class hoax,” as you say. Instead, I suggested that the hoax was *Pyongyang’s*, not Washington’s. A big difference, no?
Anyway, here are my exact words:
“By the beginning of this week, it became clear that a world-class hoax had gone down. Either Pyongyang had hoodwinked the globe into thinking it was about to launch — or the Times was once again hyping up a national security threat.“
I’m not saying they were spot-on — they weren’t. But they also weren’t the accusations that you imply.
Best,
nms
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