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Home » Raptor Watch » Raptor … or Turkey? (Final Part)

Raptor … or Turkey? (Final Part)

“If the United States is to main­tain air dom­i­nance, it needs the [Lockheed Martin] F-​​22 [Raptor],” 1st Fighter Wing Captain Elizabeth Kreft said point-​​blank at the end of our Aug. 10 meet­ing.
The threat, Raptor advo­cates con­tend, is a dual one: the lat­est Sukhoi Su-​​27 Flanker derivate fight­ers and “double-​​digit” surface-​​to-​​air mis­sile sys­tems such as the S-​​300.
Su-27-Flanker.jpgUsers include:

S-​​300: Armenia, Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Cyprus, Hungary, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, Slovakia, Syria, Ukraine and Vietnam
Su-​​27/​30/​33: Angola, Armenia, Belarus, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, Syria, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuala (rumored) and Vietnam

Critics includ­ing fighter designer Pierre Sprey say the ear­lier gen­er­a­tion of U.S. fight­ers such as the Lockheed Martin F-​​16 Viper and Boeing F-​​15 Eagle are ade­quate to defeat Flankers. Raptor friends point to exer­cises such as the infa­mous (and per­haps rigged) Cope India as evi­dence that the Viper and Eagle can be bested.
My own take: Sure, the F-​​15 and F-​​16 might be equal or even slightly supe­rior (when pilot train­ing, weapons and joint and indus­try sup­port are con­sid­ered). But for how long, in light of con­tin­ued Flanker devel­op­ment? And since when is par­ity enough? Don’t our pilots deserve bet­ter?
As for those S-​​300s … The U.S. mil­i­tary has per­haps become accus­tomed to oper­at­ing in per­mis­sive air defense envi­ron­ment such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Granted, heli­copter pilots might not agree that these places are all that per­mis­sive. But there cer­tainly is no real threat to the fast-​​movers and high-​​fliers that haul the cargo, spot tar­gets and come to the res­cue of pinned-​​down Marines. In this con­text, the Air Force has spent a decade mostly run­ning down its Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses force; the Raptor promises to revi­tal­ize the capa­bil­ity and ensure global access for legacy air­craft and the future Lockheed Martin F-​​35 Lightning.
Speaking of which, some crit­ics ask, why can’t we cut the expen­sive Raptor in favor of the cheaper Lightning? While a fine bomb-​​hauler and (one hopes) a good multi-​​service air­frame, the F-​​35 is a mediocre per­former. Said 1st Fighter Wing com­man­der Brigadier General Burton Field, “The prob­lem with the F-​​35 … is speed. It doesn’t have the capa­bil­ity to super­cruise. Speed lets us get inside the deci­sion cycle of the bad guy.“
For the most dan­ger­ous air bat­tles and attack mis­sions, F-​​35 squadrons will rely on F-​​22s for sup­port. That’s an unavoid­able state of affairs when you design an air­frame to replace slow– and low-​​flying Lockheed Martin A-​​10 Warthogs and Boeing AV-​​8B Harriers as well as light and flex­i­ble F-​​16s and Boeing F/​A-​​18 Hornets. The F-​​35 is a com­pro­mise. Potentially a very suc­cess­ful com­pro­mise, but still …
We’ve already sunk $25 bil­lion into Raptor devel­op­ment. That money is irrecov­er­able. Further jets cost only around $115 mil­lion (per­haps twice as much as a new F-​​16) and will get even cheaper. We should get a good return on our invest­ment. A good return, in my esti­ma­tion, means a full fleet of at least 381 Raptors in 10 or more full-​​strength squadrons. That should guar­an­tee air dom­i­nance for another 30 years or more.
–David Axe

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August 17th, 2006 | Raptor Watch | 481068 Comments »http://defensetech.org/2006/08/17/raptor-or-turkey-final-part/Raptor+...+or+Turkey%3F+%28Final+Part%292006-08-17+21%3A14%3A57noahmax You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

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  1. Sven Ortmann says:
    August 17, 2006 at 6:00 pm

    There’s no such thing like a guar­an­tee, espe­cially not for decades.
    Every tech­nol­ogy can be coun­tered and in mil­i­tary affairs, it will be coun­tered if it’s impor­tant to you and if you are impor­tant at all.
    There are so many things that can deny air supe­ri­or­ity.
    Surface-​​to-​​air lasers (yes, sounds Sci-​​Fi but is pos­si­ble), high attri­tion rates through radar-​​independent SAM sys­tems, quan­tity pro­duc­tion for cheap air com­bat drones, infil­tra­tion com­man­does against air­fields, anti-​​airfield bal­lis­tic mis­siles cheaper than ABM’s…
    And last but not least — mod­ern fight­ers might become com­pletely irrel­e­vant in air com­bat if thou­sands of swarm­ing small drones became the means of air attack. How would you hunt them down with Raptors? Sens an AMRAAM worth mroe than five attack drones after them? Use the Vulcan at 150ft alti­tude on tar­gets as small as 2m span width?
    Basically, 40mm AAA might become pri­mary means of anti-​​air war­fare in this extreme sce­nario.
    No guar­an­tee for Raptors…

    Reply
  2. Noah says:
    August 17, 2006 at 6:37 pm

    … and as recent events in Lebanon and Iraq have so clearly pointed out, air supe­ri­or­ity has lit­tle effect on next gen­er­a­tion war­fare. We absolutely rule the skies over Iraq and Afghanistan to no effect. The same applied to the IDF in Lebanon. How would some even more expen­sive hard­ware help?
    This is a fools errand, sub­si­dized by tax­pay­ers to sup­port end­less war for profit.

    Reply
  3. skrip00 says:
    August 17, 2006 at 7:44 pm

    Wanna take some­thing on? The real crooks in defense indus­tries are the US Gov’t.
    Mainly because they ges­tate devel­op­ment.
    The F-​​22A in no way shouldve costed $28bil to develop. But it did.
    Its quite evi­dent: LockMart and Boeing make more money from devel­op­ment than actu­ally pro­duc­ing the air­craft.
    In fact, in their ideal world, pro­duc­tion is to be avoided at all costs, and devel­op­ment is to take as long as pos­si­ble.
    Its sick and pervasive.

    Reply
  4. C-Low says:
    August 17, 2006 at 7:45 pm
    Reply
  5. Brian says:
    August 17, 2006 at 9:06 pm

    I owe you an apol­ogy, Mr. Axe.
    I was skep­ti­cal of your report­ing on this par­tic­u­lar sub­ject. You have come across as a vocal critic of the Raptor, and I doubted your abil­ity to report with a lack of bias on this sub­ject. I have enjoyed each part of your report on the Raptor and feel you have given it a fair shake. Good job.

    Reply
  6. Brian says:
    August 17, 2006 at 9:09 pm

    Nah, it’s not Noah of this site. I thought so at first, too. It’s just some kook.

    Reply
  7. Moose says:
    August 18, 2006 at 12:10 am

    Noah from this site would have a link in his name.
    Where are the swarms of drones? Where are the sen­sors and wepons small enough to fit on these but still sophis­ti­cated enough to brong down a Raptor? Where are the ground troops vol­un­teer­ing to waltz into land under a Sukhoi-​​filled air­space?
    No, the F-​​22 can’t win the war on its own. No, it can’t deal with every threat we can pos­si­bly imag­ine. No, it’s not cheap. But for the next 30 years or so the world’s air-​​to-​​air threat’s going to advance, and we need a plane that stands head and shoul­ders above the pack. 108–0? Sounds like a good start.

    Reply
  8. Andrej says:
    August 18, 2006 at 2:08 am

    I would check your list of S-​​300 users… Several coun­tries are mere spec­u­la­tion (and in other cases such spec­u­la­tion has been proven false). Furthermore, some of thee coun­tries posses older ver­sions of S-​​300 (which is not that dan­ger­ous) and not S-​​300PMU1 and above. Furthermore, effec­tiv­ness of any air defense sys­tem is as good as its user. Probably most would even run out of its mis­siles shoot­ing at decoys.

    Reply
  9. David Hambling says:
    August 18, 2006 at 2:11 am

    The whole Raptor project shows very back­ward think­ing: it is very much an exten­sion of exist­ing air com­bat sys­tems. The idea that if just just make it a bit faster, stealth­ier and more manueu­vrable then you have a win­ner.
    But at root it’s just more of the same, a very big, expen­sive and hence very rare and valu­able manned plane.
    This is sim­ply not going to cut it in a world where new par­a­digms are going to be com­ing out the wood­work. Network-​​centric sys­tems, drone swarms, laser and other directed energy weapons, hyper­sonic sys­tems, ultra-​​agile UCAVs and all the other good stuff we read about in DefenseTech makes this look very old indeed.
    [This sud­den insis­tence on super­cruise is quite amus­ing — we’ve been doing pretty well with­out it for the last 50 years, and now sud­denly it’s become essen­tial? Gimme a break…]

    Reply
  10. Brian says:
    August 18, 2006 at 8:50 am

    David,
    You want to talk about the Raptor being expen­sive, and you list off hyper­sonic network-​​centric scram­jet drones with laser weapons? Get real.
    The Raptor works, ladies and gen­tle­men. It’s not a piece of the­o­ret­i­cal crap. It ACTUALLY flies, as opposed to scram­jets that have stayed in the air a grand total of about 30 sec­onds. It can actu­ally evade radar, as opposed to drones that must main­tain a con­stant, easy to fol­low com­mu­ni­ca­tions link with a ground unit. And it has weapons that actu­ally work, as opposed to laser beams that shoot twice and can barely fit on a 747.
    Yeah, I’m sure the Raptor looks like crap when you com­pare it to an X-​​Wing. But we can actu­ally build a Raptor. Get back to the comic con­ven­tion, geeks.

    Reply
  11. sglover says:
    August 18, 2006 at 8:52 am

    Well, it’s nice to see that the Air Force still knows how to fight the kind of war that it grooms its gen­er­als for — the end­less cam­paign for its hefty chunk of the fed­eral bud­get. We can expect the dubi­ous sunk cost argu­ment advanced by this last ‘Raptor Watch’ install­ment to be a cen­ter­piece of the pro­pa­ganda for the pro­gram.
    Once again, we see the two clas­sic pil­lars of “suc­cess­ful” weapons sys­tems devel­op­ment: 1) Generously spread the sub­con­tract­ing money among lots of Congressional dis­tricts, and 2) piss as much appro­pri­ated money away as pos­si­ble up front, early on. It’s impor­tant to have a pha­lanx of polit­i­cal “lead­ers” who are skilled at look­ing sin­cere when they fret about what a shame it would be to waste all the money that’s been “invested” in the pro­gram to date.
    Do all this in the name of “free­dom”, of course. And avoid unpleas­ant, impo­lite ref­er­ences to things like, oh, the deja vu qual­ity of weapons pro­cure­ment. Because we all know that the ONLY threats to our democ­racy are exter­nal. Broken fed­eral bud­gets, lux­ury weapons, and crony cap­i­tal­ism — these are pos­i­tive bless­ings for a healthy democ­racy! This is just what Madison and Jefferson dreamed of!

    Reply
  12. LEP says:
    August 18, 2006 at 10:24 am

    The Cyprus Republic is not a user of the Russian-​​made S-​​300 PMU1 surface-​​to-​​air mis­sile sys­tem. Thanks to the polit­i­cal pres­sure of the U.S. Clinton Administration that was always eager to serve Turkish national secu­rity inter­ests, the S-​​300 mis­sile bat­ter­ies that were pur­chased by the Cyprus Republic were never installed on the island of Cyprus. These mis­sile bat­ter­ies are cur­rently part of the Hellenic Air Force (Greece)air-defense sys­tem and were part of the pro­tec­tive umbrella over the 2004 Summer Olympic Games. Greece is both a NATO and an EU mem­ber, and a major buyer of defense equip­ment from the U.S.

    Reply
  13. C-Low says:
    August 18, 2006 at 10:25 am

    Thanks for clear­ing that up guys. Apologies to Noah for the accu­sa­tion.
    I think the F-​​22 will be a very use­ful tool in the tool box for the future.
    For you guys claim­ing the F-​​22 is for a yes­ter­day fight and cant fight ter­ror­ist with an IED and AK blah blah blah. I would just like to remind you guys you don

    Reply
  14. David Dickerson says:
    August 18, 2006 at 12:47 pm

    Our fighter pilots do deserve “the best” — and to go into com­bat know­ing the odds of com­ing home are much higher than the odds of dying.
    The point of the naysay­ers is.…our sol­diers deserve “the best” too. And at this expense what are we los­ing?
    How many unar­mored or lightly armored vehi­cles are still out there?
    How many heli­copters are get­ting shot down?
    Soliders per­sonal armor?
    Comm gear?
    Unmanned scout vehi­cles?
    Networks of sen­sors to detect ground ene­mies?
    The mil­i­tary should look at the big pic­ture — China to Grenada — and make sure they can do the job.
    But they should develop a fac­tor of expected deaths and where $$ could reduce deaths based on a mix of his­tor­i­cal info and pro­jec­tions from regional wars to the big one. If they spent $135M doing R&D on Humvee sur­viv­abil­ity and another $135M on per­sonel armor pro­tec­tion and another $135M on new first aid gear to stop the bleed­ing (the new super­ban­dages still aren’t out). We would lose 3 planes and save how many lives?
    My dad was Air Force, I grew up in pilot com­mu­ni­ties, but even in the bad days of Korea/​Vietnam/​Gulf War I and II the pilots believed they were com­ing home while the grunts were flinch­ing when a branch broke. The last time our pilots went out there with fatal­is­tic thoughts (on a day in day out basis) we were doing low level bomb­ing of oil fac­to­ries over Ploesti.
    So go buy the weapons for the war that most likely won’t be fought.

    Reply
  15. sglover says:
    August 18, 2006 at 12:57 pm

    “But they should develop a fac­tor of expected deaths and where $$ could reduce deaths based on a mix of his­tor­i­cal info and pro­jec­tions from regional wars to the big one. If they spent $135M doing R&D on Humvee sur­viv­abil­ity and another $135M on per­sonel armor pro­tec­tion and another $135M on new first aid gear to stop the bleed­ing (the new super­ban­dages still aren’t out). We would lose 3 planes and save how many lives?“
    There ya go again, inject­ing real­ity and a wider per­spec­tive into the dis­cus­sion. When I go to the local air show, is your new first aid gear gonna trail red, white and blue smoke? I doubt it. Dammit, the F-​​22 is just, you know, cool! And as C-​​Low points out, it may have even cooler mys­ti­cal super­pow­ers that only the Elect know about.

    Reply
  16. WarNerd says:
    August 18, 2006 at 1:53 pm

    How about some per­spec­tive? Maybe I missed all the great air to air bat­tles (only a hand­ful) the US Air force and the rest of the world’s air forces have been involved in since the end of the Vietnam con­flict. So why exactly are wast­ing bil­lions of dol­lars on a small num­ber of Cold War derived air to air fight­ers that will never shoot down any­thing because there are no tech­no­log­i­cal (2-​​3GW) enemy forces to fight?(China-too inter­con­nected. Iran, Syria? Sorry “big war” crowd, never going to hap­pen! North Korea? Unlikely, but F15’s will do just in case.)
    We need hun­dreds of net­worked real-​​time UCAV’s, and a few heavy bombers for killing Jihadists, and then some close air sup­port air­craft for the troops on the ground. Iraq, Afghanistan, New Orleans, COTW, which is the present/​future (4GW, Post-​​conflict sta­bil­ity). The F22 Raptor is use­less for all of this.

    Reply
  17. Brian says:
    August 18, 2006 at 2:51 pm

    Hey, WarNerd,
    No, there haven’t been too many great air-​​to-​​air bat­tles. The clos­est we had (to my knowl­edge) was when we absolutely blew Saddam’s air force out of the sky in Gulf War I.
    That does not mean, how­ever, that those weapons are use­less. Read your Sun Tsu. If you frighten an enemy so that he does not attack you, then you have won. I’ve got a buddy who is 6’5″ and weighs about 350 lbs. He’s been in a grand total of one fight in his entire life. Is his size wasted? No, because no one dares anger him.
    I’m glad you’re com­pletely cer­tain that we’ll never fight Iran, China, or Syria. Really, I am. It makes me feel good inside, hon­estly. Like with sun­shine and but­ter­flies and rain­bows in my soul. I wish I could be so certain.

    Reply
  18. WarNerd says:
    August 18, 2006 at 8:54 pm

    Thanks Brian for read­ing my com­ments. Yes, I am opti­mistic, mainly because I am an inter­na­tional busi­ness­man, so I am quite sure we will never engage in nation-​​state war with any mod­ern, inter­con­nected coun­try, espe­cially if they have nuclear weapons; no politi­cian is that stu­pid. There are a few dic­ta­tors that need to go, but as we see over and over again, the war doesn’t end after you remove the gov­ern­ment. We can eas­ily remove any gov­ern­ment in mat­ter of weeks, that’s easy, and then what do you do? Unfortunately, that is why we will not risk any­more exper­i­ments in the Middle East. It should be about use­ful and rel­e­vant weapon sys­tems, not pork projects, which is why I say the F22 is a waste.
    Anyway, to your Sun Tzu ref­er­ence. I think you made my point. Why would any­one take on the USA mil­i­tary straight up? That

    Reply
  19. C-Low says:
    August 19, 2006 at 1:16 am

    I under­stand you guys want to pour more money into fight­ing gorilla resis­tance war but in real­ity there is no tech­nol­ogy fix to that type war­fare. The only thing that really makes a dif­fer­ence in gorilla war is Heart (moral will to see a long bloody dirty ugly strug­gle through with­out shame) and num­bers with some old school bru­tal­ity weapons. There is no amount of money that will make WAR espe­cially a Gorilla War clean, civ­i­lized, pretty, and nice, with no inno­cence lost, no civil­ians killed, no casu­al­ties on our side. The expec­ta­tions of some are just impos­si­ble to achieve. Utopia will never exist on earth as long as Human Nature sur­vives.
    What the hell it

    Reply
  20. David hambling says:
    August 19, 2006 at 6:17 am

    No amount of tech­nol­ogy is going to stop wars. As events in the Lebanon show, a guerilla force can take on the most sophis­ti­cated armies in exis­tence.
    UCAVs are the future, there is no doubt about that. I’ll be post­ing some items on recent devel­op­ments in the near future. They’re not on the front line just yet (well, some of them are), but in the very near future they will be present in large num­bers, and thet are a big chal­lenge to peo­ple who like macho manned fight­ers.
    As for future threats:
    * S-​​300/​400 = use­less against num­bers of UCAVs
    * SU-​​30 fam­ily = like­wise
    * The thrust vec­tor­ing and canards = manned air­craft can’t com­pete in sharp turns — if it’s an issue.
    * Medium range air-​​air mis­siles = again, imprac­ti­cal against large num­bers of UCAVs
    * Conclusion: AWACS-​​killers required = the sort of thing that num­ber of stealthy UCAVs are good for.
    * Proliferation of bal­lis­tic mis­siles with short-​​medium ranges = the tar­get set for per­sis­tent UCAVs
    More sig­nif­i­cantly, UCAVs can be extremely use­ful in insur­gen­cies, while the F-​​22 is just an expen­sive way of deliv­er­ing bombs.

    Reply
  21. Brian says:
    August 19, 2006 at 10:18 am

    You’re dra­mat­i­cally over-​​estimating the abil­ity of UAVs to engage in com­bat roles. Period. Sure, they make a nice sup­ple­ment. They’re handy to have.
    But there are mul­ti­ple tech­no­log­i­cal prob­lems that you can’t over­come.
    UAVs will never out­ma­neu­ver manned fight­ers, for the same rea­son I can’t play Street Fighter II with X-​​Box Live. There’s lag time any­time you have to go through a net­work or trans­mit sig­nals over great dis­tances. Anything that requires pre­cise tim­ing and instant reac­tions is going to be affected severely by lag time. Now, for fly­ing a UAV around, and mov­ing a cam­era about, and then fir­ing a Hellfire mis­sile at a car, a UAV’s com­mu­ni­ca­tion sys­tem does a fine job. But if a ded­i­cated hard-​​wired cable sys­tem can’t trans­mit the but­ton com­bi­na­tion and tim­ing needed to per­form a dragon-​​punch when I’m play­ing some asian kid in Minnesota, what makes you think you can radio the sig­nals for effec­tive air com­bat in real time to a UAV oper­at­ing in hos­tile ter­ri­tory against active jam­ming sys­tems while an enemy pilot who does not have to worry about lag time fires a mis­sile at you? How can you dog­fight when every maneu­ver you make is 10 sec­onds behind?
    You can’t.
    How will UAVs defend you when an SU-​​30 comes scream­ing over your head­quar­ters and bombs the hell out of your com­mand struc­ture? Yes, I know that you can pilot UAVs from your par­ents’ base­ment in Sandusky, Ohio, if you feel like it. But you still need boots on the ground wher­ever you’re fight­ing, and you still need some­one to pro­vide air supe­ri­or­ity.
    What do you do when your enemy man­ages to jam your com­mu­ni­ca­tions? “Oh, crap. All our UAVs just fell out of the sky. I guess we’re com­pletely F***ED!!!!“
    Finally, a word on gueril­las. Yes, they can take on mod­ern armies. As long as the mod­ern armies play nice. As long as Israel is con­cerned with civil­ian casu­al­ties, as long as they sin­cerely try to avoid hit­ting the hos­pi­tals, churches, and schools where gueril­las stay.
    Israel could wipe out Hezbollah today, if they were will­ing to engage in total war. It’s not a mat­ter of tech­nol­ogy. Whatever your mir­a­cle tech­nol­ogy, fight­ing a guerilla war is sim­ple. You’ve just got to be will­ing to kill a whole lot of peo­ple. We can do that. A few B-​​1s could level all of south­ern Lebanon. Iraq? We could end the insur­gency nearly imme­di­ately, if we were will­ing to slaugh­ter a few hun­dred thou­sand peo­ple. Insurgents in Tikrit? No more Tikrit, no more insur­gency.
    None of your UAVs, none of your pro­posed sil­ver bul­lets will do any more than the stuff we have right now. You’ve got to break a people’s will to fight. That is the only way. And a shiny new unmanned drone with a bet­ter cam­era won’t do that. Only raw bru­tal­ity will.

    Reply
  22. WarNerd says:
    August 19, 2006 at 1:07 pm

    It’s good to see I have at least one per­son who agrees with me. Great dis­cus­sion!
    I have read all the com­ments, and am still wait­ing for some­one to tell me how the F22 is worth all the money, either now, or in the future, and there­fore resources should be real­lo­cated to tackle un-​​conventional threats that we are engaged in for the next 30 years.
    F22 used to kill ter­ror­ists, or insur­gents, please. The F22 is not use­ful in Iraq and Afghanistan. Large num­bers (or any num­bers for that mat­ter) of high tech fight­ers going at it in air-​​air com­bat, NEVER GOING HAPPEN! I admit UCAVS are not ready for air-​​air com­bat, but for stalk­ing and assas­si­nat­ing a sin­gle per­son or small group, they work well now, and are only going to get bet­ter. Killing the cor­rect tar­get and min­i­miz­ing col­lat­eral dam­age is a must for 4GW.
    Like I stated ear­lier, our cur­rent capa­bil­ity can eas­ily destroy any con­ven­tional bat­tle­field threats we find (still look­ing). I am more inter­ested find­ing ways to sus­tain our­selves for 4GW. WW2 mass bomb­ings, mass occu­pa­tion forces, is not polit­i­cally accept­able any­more, so we have to find other ways to win (which is defined by long-​​term pos­i­tive out­comes, not body counts). It

    Reply
  23. Knightraptor says:
    August 19, 2006 at 10:30 pm

    The F-​​22 is an awe­some machine. Built for com­plete air-​​surpemecy against an enemy force with fight­ers com­pa­ra­ble to US legacy fight­ers. This sce­nario, while improb­a­ble, is NOT impos­si­ble. But as it is improb­a­ble, it should be pro­cured in a fash­ion that reflects that. While it would/​will be a great tool to the US Air Force’s tool­box it should not be the only tool or the main tool. It would be fool­ish not to have ANY of these fight­ers, but it would also be fool­ish to gam­ble every­thing on it. One fea­ture of the F-​​22 that is often over­looked by both sides is the abil­ity for a sin­gle F-​​22 to increase the effec­tive­ness of other US legacy fight­ers oper­at­ing with it, as seen in the recent wargames in Alaska. Ya dig?

    Reply
  24. skrip00 says:
    August 20, 2006 at 6:46 pm

    ———————————-
    “and am still wait­ing for some­one to tell me how the F22 is worth all the money, either now, or in the future“
    ———————————-
    Because the money is already spent. Buying it now makes it cheaper to oper­ate than the F-​​15C since it is already more advanced than the F-​​15C and has more growth space and pro­cess­ing capac­ity avail­able for future upgrades.
    Everyone here makes the same mis­take assum­ing that the only war we will fight is against a bunch of ter­ror­ists in Iraq and Afghanistan. Assumptions like that will leave the US ill-​​prepared when deal­ing with a nation with a bit more… organization?

    Reply
  25. WarNerd says:
    August 20, 2006 at 10:28 pm

    I’ll accept your finan­cial logic; but if we have to buy Air-​​Superiority fight­ers to make Congress, and the para­noid anti-​​China crowd happy, then the JSF has to go (at least domes­ti­cally), because we def­i­nitely don’t need both of these obso­lete, expen­sive, and irrel­e­vant projects.
    Anyway, my strate­gic ratio­nale stands, because unless you are a reli­gious zealot or and envi­ron­men­tal­ists nut-​​job and think the world is going to hell and a hand bas­ket, nation-​​state war­fare is his­tory. India/​Pakistan, and Eritrea/​Ethiopia are the last of the nation-​​states to either threaten or fight each other, but they

    Reply
  26. David Hambling says:
    August 21, 2006 at 8:00 am

    Brian,
    You are seri­ously under­es­ti­matng UCAVs. You seem to be assum­ing that they have to be piloted remotely, and that sim­ply is not the case. With some­thing like Air Dominator, all it needs a human for it to con­firm the kill decision…cruise mis­siles don’t even need that. And if you think that other nations will be squea­mish about allow­ing machines to decided who they kill, you are hor­ri­bly wrong.
    UCAVs will be at least as capa­ble as human pilots of oper­at­ing in an envi­ron­ment where com­mu­ni­ca­tions have gone down. As you will have seen from my piece on Swarms, they are actu­ally much, much bet­ter than humans at deal­ing with issues like col­li­sion avoid­ance and co-​​operation with­out overt com­mu­ni­ca­tion.
    When you smash the enemy’s HQ, their unmanned sys­tems will not even blink.
    As for your com­ment “We could end the insur­gency nearly imme­di­ately, if we were will­ing to slaugh­ter a few hun­dred thou­sand peo­ple. “
    – I think you need to get with the 21st cen­tury, not the early 20th.
    The US is sim­ply not going to be in a sit­u­a­tion where that is ever pos­si­ble. This is why we need smaller, smarter, per­sis­tent sys­tems capa­ble of mak­ing a real dif­fer­ence in a guerilla war (as well as other types), not Cold War left­overs opti­mized for dog­fights with non-​​existent MiGs.

    Reply
  27. Brian says:
    August 21, 2006 at 10:11 am

    David,
    Color me uncon­vinced. I have no doubt that other nations would have no prob­lem with allow­ing machines to make deci­sions on who to kill. I do have doubts that UAVs will ever be able to dis­tin­guish a Humvee from a cow. Our servers just crashed this morn­ing at work, so maybe I’m biased at the moment.
    I know you’ve got images in your head of robot drones fly­ing around like that scene in “Terminator”. I don’t buy it.
    I’m not wor­ried about destroy­ing an enemy’s HQ and hav­ing their drones keep on fight­ing. I doubt any for­eign power will muster a large enough or advanced enough force of UAVs to real­is­ti­cally fight the US. I’m wor­ried about us using a force of UAVs and find­ing that they can’t stop enemy fight­ers. Even if our UAVs keep attack­ing, I don’t want our troops bombed from the air.
    The truth is, we’ll need BOTH jet fight­ers and UAVs in the future. The UAV won’t replace manned jets, it will sup­ple­ment them.
    Also, the more capa­ble you make a UAV, the more expen­sive it will be. If it has the abil­i­ties of an F-​​22, it will cost the same as an F-​​22.
    Finally, I know we’re not going to go back to tac­tics like the fire-​​bombing of Dresden. However, my point was, that is the ONLY way to truly break an insur­gency. New giz­mos and wid­gets and toys won’t do it. No mat­ter how many F-​​22s or UAVs we buy, they won’t end an insur­gency. The only way to do it is boots on the ground and a will­ing­ness to shoot a lot of peo­ple. No, the F-​​22 won’t help. But nei­ther will any other tech gadget.

    Reply
  28. Jeff says:
    August 21, 2006 at 2:43 pm

    I believe we stand upon a very sim­i­lar thresh­old that our grand­par­ents did in the 1930’s. They also didn’t want to com­mit to upgrad­ing the Air Force until Pearl Harbor.

    Reply
  29. WarNerd says:
    August 21, 2006 at 4:15 pm

    This dis­cus­sion just keeps just keeps on going, awe­some.
    We have an approx­i­mately 400 bil­lion dol­lar defense bud­get (exclud­ing sup­ple­men­tal), which as every­one knows is much larger than any­body else, even big bad China. This buys power pro­jec­tion and strate­gic options, not just typ­i­cal self defense. No one is or will ever come close.
    Yet, time and time again, we can’t even wipe out some guerilla/​insurgent force. So I ask, what is the cor­rect bal­ance between our desire for cool, and use­less weapons sys­tems and the things we actu­ally use and need to “win” the wars we have now? We can’t have it all.
    High tech air supe­ri­or­ity fight­ers, big expen­sive Cold War ships (exclud­ing car­ri­ers) and sub­marines, ICBM

    Reply
  30. Brian says:
    August 21, 2006 at 5:04 pm

    The prob­lem with the insur­gency is this. There are a few thou­sand insur­gents. They look just like every­body else in Iraq. They smile and wave at our troops when we drive by. They go to work in the morn­ing, come home at night. They go to the bar to drink beer, and play “kick the sherpa” on Saturdays. Indistinguishable. They also pick up explo­sives from Crazy Ackbar, the local used car dealer. Then they go and blow things up. Then they go right back to wav­ing at our troops and going to work in the morn­ing.
    So how do you catch these guys? Oh, some of the locals have a good idea who they are. When Abdul doesn’t come home on Tuesday nights until after mid­night, they know what he’s doing. But he’s “fight­ing the good fight”. He’s fight­ing the Americans, and some of them respect that. They’re not gonna squeal, even when some fel­low Iraqis get killed.
    That’s going to con­tinue. It’s going to con­tinue until some­one clamps down HARD on it. In Saddam’s day, when some­thing like this hap­pened, he had every­one in the neigh­bor­hood shot. Neighbors become a whole lot less sym­pa­thetic when Abdul gets them all dead.
    “Fear will keep the locals in line. Fear of this bat­tlesta­tion.“
    The US is a warm and fuzzy mil­i­tary. We’re all happy and shiny and we don’t kill inno­cents. Sadly, you can’t describe many of the peo­ple in Iraq as “inno­cents”. They’re silently complicit.

    Reply
  31. David Hambling says:
    August 22, 2006 at 2:30 pm

    Brian,
    “I do have doubts that UAVs will ever be able to dis­tin­guish a Humvee from a cow.“
    I think you’re a few gen­er­a­tions behind in machine vision!
    “Our servers just crashed this morn­ing at work, so maybe I’m biased at the moment.“
    That will hit com­plex sys­tems like the F-​​22 at least as badly as UCAVs.
    “I know you’ve got images in your head of robot drones fly­ing around like that scene in Terminator.“
    Big, awk­ward, vul­ner­a­ble craft with lim­ited sensors…no, noth­ing like that.
    “I doubt any for­eign power will muster a large enough or advanced enough force of UAVs to real­is­ti­cally fight the US.“
    Insurgents could start using them against US forces tomor­row.
    “The UAV won’t replace manned jets, it will sup­ple­ment them.“
    Dream on.
    “Also, the more capa­ble you make a UAV, the more expen­sive it will be. If it has the abil­i­ties of an F-​​22, it will cost the same as an F-​​22.“
    No, for a lot of rea­sons. The sim­plest of which is man-​​rating: UCAVs sim­ply don’t have to be as safe and reli­able as manned craft.
    And when is a human-​​piloted F-​​22 going to be able to fly 72-​​hour mis­sions with­out blink­ing once?
    “Finally, I know we’re not going to go back to tac­tics like the fire-​​bombing of Dresden. However, my point was, that is the ONLY way to truly break an insur­gency“
    Remember, appalling as it was, the fire-​​bombing of Dresden did not break German morale. Against gueril­las, mas­sive force did not work for the Soviets in Afghanistan, and it did not work in Chechnya. It also, most tellingly, did not work for Saddam Hussein: given exter­nal sup­port, insur­gents will go on fight­ing what­ever you throw at them. And the more civil­ians you kill, the more pop­u­lar their cause becomes.

    Reply
  32. VNCCC says:
    April 4, 2007 at 1:32 pm

    Hi David. Fine series of arti­cles. One remark jumped at my eyes: ‘The Lightning is a com­pro­mise” [my para­phrase]. Would you be able to get that into the heads of the Dutch KLu (RNAF) and Parliament? The F-​​35 will cer­tainly need another craft to open the way in con­tested air­space. I gather the Netherlands, like so often before, trusts that oth­ers will do that for them. They are not wont to go it alone. All OK by me, but it makes one won­der: Who will be the guys open­ing the gates and where will they come from? For that mat­ter, where will The Netherlands’ F-35’s come from if they are engaged, as they are, in Afghanistan or Ethiopia?

    Reply
  33. VNCCC-VHJM van Neerven says:
    April 4, 2007 at 1:36 pm

    I see that my com­ment is late in the game. I wish I had known about your writ­ing before. I found you, thanks to Joe Katzman from DID, and you are on my book­marks list now! Next read­ing will be your enovel.

    Reply
  34. Leo says:
    May 8, 2007 at 9:34 am

    “I am opti­mistic, mainly because I am an inter­na­tional busi­ness­man, so I am quite sure we will never engage in nation-​​state war with any mod­ern, inter­con­nected coun­try“
    That’s what every­one assumed before World War I: the new shiny mod­ern world of bur­geon­ing inter­na­tional trade would make the eco­nomic dis­rup­tions and costs of war unthink­able, a relic of the bad old days. Oops.
    Von Moltke just made his plans for war and dis­missed such notions by say­ing he was a gen­eral, not an econ­o­mist. A bit­ter irony to the hun­dreds of thou­sands of Germans who starved to death under British block­ade, even after the Armistice (the block­ade con­tin­ued until Versailles in 1919).

    Reply
  35. Bill says:
    July 13, 2007 at 2:50 pm

    Using the F-​​22 and F-​​35 is like bring­ing a machine gun to a knife fight.
    We are the only super­power. Russian doesn’t have the econ­omy to con­tinue pro­duc­ing expen­sive fight­ers, and China will not attack their largest trad­ing part­ner
    Terrorists will not be stopped by an air­craft like the F-​​22 and F-​​35.
    We would have been much bet­ter off spend­ing the money on an A-​​10 replace­ment, F-​​15 upgrades, and improv­ing our intel­li­gence community.

    Reply
  36. Reon says:
    October 17, 2007 at 7:00 am

    This seems like a no brainer to me. Kill the F-​​35, kill it now, kill it dead.
    With all the $$ saved you could afford 500 no-​​compromise F-22’s and 500 new F-16’s just for poops and gig­gles. People never con­sider the time fac­tor when it comes to money and gov­ern­ment projects. By the time the JSF is ready to go, it’ll cost at least as much as the F-​​22 does now.
    As for the F-35’s replac­ing the A-10’s… who the hell came up with that idea, what are they smok­ing, and why won’t they pass it this way?
    The Navy goes with­out a stealth plat­form, so they have to make due with Super Hornets and long range mis­siles. Not a big deal if you ask me.
    As some have already said, the F-​​22 is ready for prime time, right now… I don’t see the point in spend­ing hun­dreds of bil­lions on more devel­op­ment for an infe­rior plane (aside from export pur­poses).
    I realise it’s not very feasable, but another hun­dred B1 bombers would fit the bill nicely in Iraq and Afganistan, and be flex­able enough for unforseen future con­flicts. Monsterous pay­load, lots of time over tar­get, and a bit of pen­e­tra­tion capa­bil­ity goes a long way.… but I digress.

    Reply
  37. Andrew says:
    February 13, 2008 at 2:17 am

    It seems to me that no-​​one, and that is no-​​one (unless they can read the future) can know for sure what con­flicts will arise in the near or not so near future. Isn’t it bet­ter to be pre­pared for all pos­si­bil­i­ties than to only con­cen­trate on the wars being fought right now. Sure China/​Russia or who­ever may not want to start a con­flict, but who can say that with com­plete surity? If the US strays away from pro­duc­ing the sort of weapons needed to stop a larger power, isn’t that a bit of an invi­ta­tion for that larger power to try their hand? I am actu­ally from Australia, so I may not be in such a place to say what the US should or shouldn’t do, but thats just my opin­ion. By the way Indonesia are buy­ing weapons from Russia as fast as they can, SU-30’s and the like, cur­rently RAAF has F/A18’s and F111’s — surely no match for an SU-​​30. We are sup­pos­edly going to get some super hor­nets until we buy some F-35’s (if our new Prime Miniter doesn’t crap the idea) but I for one would like to know we had some Raptors to take on the Indonesians if need be. Again, they may never attack us, but we won’t know that unil it does or doesn’t hap­pen. Prepare for all possibilitys.

    Reply
  38. Andrew says:
    February 13, 2008 at 2:19 am

    I know the Raptor is not for export at this time, but I wish it was.

    Reply
  39. cheap SOF gold says:
    August 2, 2008 at 12:28 am

    He touched me most is that I give up a 93 lev­els, as he went to moun­tain play. We brush mon­sters, chat and earn cheap SOF gold together. Time passed quickly, I gen­tly told him. I am depressed when I not see him; I click on his name send my happy, only he can refresh my loneliness.

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  40. cheap 2moons dil says:
    August 16, 2008 at 12:13 am

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  43. hannah m says:
    January 23, 2009 at 9:29 am

    Bring back and update the F-​​16XL. That thing had range, pay­load, and could super­cruise. Maybe give it a sim­ple up-​​down thrust vec­tor­ing as well. Spend the sav­ings on upgrad­ing cur­rent F-​​16s and F-​​15s and on bet­ter mis­sile tech and more flight hours.

    Reply
  44. Alyssa says:
    April 2, 2009 at 1:45 am

    Good evening. Could you imag­ine how hor­ri­ble things would be if we always told oth­ers how we felt? Life would be intol­er­a­bly bear­able.
    I am from Bahrain and also now teach English, give true I wrote the fol­low­ing sen­tence: “Find best deals on flight tick­ets, hotel book­ings, hon­ey­moon hol­i­day pack­ages, bus and train rail­way busi­ness class air­line night flight.“
    With best wishes 8-​​), Alyssa.

    Reply

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