In the October Popular Science, veteran aviation journo Bill Sweetman writes about secret airplanes he believes might be under development at the Air Force’s remote Groom Lake test facility in Nevada, a.k.a. Area 51. Sweetman describes three demonstrators unveiled in recent years — the Northrop Grumman Tacit Blue and Boeing Bird of Prey manned stealth planes and the Lockheed Martin Polecat drone — but insists these are just consolation prizes offered up by a military that is keeping its major black airplane programs under wraps.
Not that he has a ton of proof. “Hint[s]” and guesswork, mostly. The new construction at Groom Lake must mean something, he figures. And then there are those “obvious… significant gaps in the militarys known aviation arsenal — gaps that the Pentagon can reasonably be assumed to be actively, if quietly, trying to fill.“
It’s a strange series of calculations to make. The perceived holes — high-speed, penetrating reconnaissance and long-range, stealthy strike — are fairly well plugged up, at least until 2020. And the proposed gap-fillers are some of aviation history’s more discredited flops and boogeymen.
In his story, Sweetman speculates about “possible all-weather attack vehicles now in testing — ones available sooner than [the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning’s] 2014 [debut] and capable of carrying significant bomb loads.”
A hint about [the plane]… could reside, aerospace historian Peter Merlin pointed out, in a test pilots unclassified biography. Daniel Vanderhorst, who flew Northrops [Tacit Blue] Whale and six other secret aircraft in a 20-year career, evidently tested modified landing gear and conducted initial tests of internal weapons bays and weapon separation tests. Whats unusual about this is that most prototypes are simple aircraft without weapon bays, which suggests that this airplane was closer to an operational type. Specifically, Im guessing, it could be an extension of the heavy-payload, all-weather attack jet A-12 Avenger II, which thenSecretary of Defense Dick Cheney canceled in 1991 because it was overbudget and not meeting its technological goals.
Never mind that the plane only got as far as the mock-up stage — and even the mock-up was a mess, according to insiders. The airplane was an unmitigated disaster from the outset, as the lovable nerds at Globalsecurity.org explain:
The A-12 proved to be the most troubled of the new American stealth aircraft in large part because of problems found in the extensive use of composites in its structure. These composites did not result in anticipated weight savings, and some structural elements had to be replaced with heavier metal components. The weight of each aircraft exceeded 30 tons, variously estimated at between 10% and 30% over design specification, and close to the limits that could be accommodated on aircraft carriers.
The Department of Defense terminated the contract [in 1991] after the contractors failed to deliver a single airplane after receiving more than $2 billion in payments. Instead, the contractors refused to continue with the contract unless they received extraordinary relief in the form of relaxed terms and extra funds. At the same time, they would or could not assure delivery of an aircraft by a time certain, specify the aircraft’s performance capabilities, or commit to a specific price for the aircraft.
For more than a decade, the U.S. government has been trying to get a $2.3-billion refund on the A-12 from the contractors.
Addressing that alleged gap in penetrating reconnaissance, Sweetman dredges up the old Aurora spyplane, the Bigfoot of aviation journalism. When the super-cool Lockheed Martin SR-71 Blackbird was retired in 1991, aviation enthusiasts imagined that something cooler had taken the Blackbird’s place. That something cooler was the triangular, hypersonic, high-flying Aurora, Sweetman writes:
Such a vehicle — a ramjet-powered reconaissance and strike aircraft capable of flying at least five times the speed of sound and deploying anywhere in the world in a matter of hours — has been high on the governments wish list. Aurora is certainly possible. The basic propulsion unit, the ramjet, is no more than a tapered tube with a fuel injector and burner in the middle and a thrust nozzle at the end. Basic ramjet-powered missiles have topped Mach 6. A wealth of aerodynamic data and test flights suggest that a wedge-shaped aircraft would work at these speeds.
I first heard about this kind of program in the mid-1980s, and the first public hint of the project popped up in 1988, when The New York Times reported that the Air Force was developing a spyplane capable of better than Mach 5 — nearly twice as fast as the SR-71, then the worlds fastest airplane.
Unless you count some unexplained sonic booms or the uninformed testimony of one amateur plane spotter (who was probably, unknowingly, looking at a Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit), there is not a shred of evidence of Aurora’s existence. Yes, the basic technology for such an aircraft is there, but it’s not yet advanced enough nor integrated for practical use. The Air Force/Lockheed Martin Falcon program (among others) is just beginning to pull together a useful hypersonic aircraft.
Maybe Sweetman has some treasure trove of corroborating data that he doesn’t share in his article. Otherwise, what’s seems to be happening here is a recycling of some of aviation’s favorite ghost stories … followed by a retroactive identification of the military roles they might fill and claims that urgent needs in these areas proves the secret airplanes’ existences.
The problem is that none of the needs are really all that urgent. Let’s start with long-range stealthy strike. Sweetman writes that the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor’s bombload is too light, the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning is too far from service and the Lockheed Martin F-117 Nighthawk lacks a radar for precision targeting.
The F-22’s bombload is indeed light compared to, say, the Boeing B-52 Stratofortress’. But the Raptor can deliver two 1,000-pound satellite-guided Boeing Joint Direct Attack Munitions at supersonic speed and high altitude, imparting unprecedented energy and range to these very accurate weapons. It’s nothing to sneeze at. The F-117, for its part, was never intended to drop radar-guided munitions. Its main weapons are laser-guided bombs, which don’t require a radar and are still more accurate than even JDAMs.
Sweetman leaves all the Air Force’s strategic bombers off his list. What about the B-2, which is long-ranged, stealthy and can carry an enormous bombload? We have 21 of those. Or the Boeing B-1B Lancer, which in addition to its long legs and huge bombload has a radar cross-section smaller than even most fighters’? We have 70 Lancers. Our 90-strong B-52 fleet can fire stealthy cruise missiles hundreds of miles away from its targets. Sure, the planes are decades old. But they work really well. Why not count them?
Truth be told, we have more than 180 very capable long-range bombers, many of them stealthy, plus 50 F-117s and 60 out of an eventual 180 Raptors. We took down Iraq’s air defenses in 2003 with just a small percentage of the bomber fleet.
Sure, anti-air systems are growing more sophisticated especially as you look out into the 2020s. But in ten years, we’ll have a couple hundred F-35s on the ramps too. Five years after that, we’re supposed to see the product of the Air Force’s new Long-Range Strike study, which is a clean-slate approach to stealthy bombing. A revamped A-12 is an unlikely candidate for the competition.
As for Aurora … it would fill a need now met by a combination of satellites, drones, camera pods and upgraded aircraft including the Lockheed Martin U-2 Dragon Lady. Despite some hand-wringing over the average age of Air Force recce planes, most experts admit that our portfolio of reconnaissance assets is diverse and robust.
You want to talk urgent needs? How about airlift? Or loitering drones? Or Marine Corps fighters? Or tankers? Or rescue helicopters? Or naval patrol planes? The truly urgent needs in military aviation just aren’t sexy … and the solutions aren’t secret.
– David Axe
Give me another tin hat and let this go to X-files LOL. There might be weather conditions that may decrease the ability of the satellites, but with an era of tens of satellites around the orbit, would such another black bird like bird be on the top want list? I rather build up on the XB-70 Valkirie for such purpose instead. However, expensive military aircrafts often get bashed, including the F-22A.
GoodMorning David,
I read the Pop. Sci. article and like anything that has Area 51 in it’s title it must be taken with a grain of salt or a lite Beer. Here is my question though, is there any “manned” combat aircraft in the development stages for any of the services?
Although there are many who will go down and crash and burn with manned aircraft it appears that the F-22 and if it’s ever built will be the LAST manned combat aircraft to be built by the U.S.
Two weeks ago the Air Force canceled 72 F-35, after the Marines dumped 35 of ‘em, which can only mean it will dump about 200 pilots, or about 10% of the Air Force number of pilots total in the upcomming budget. Today in the news the National Guard is looking at taking over the B-2’s. A couple of weeks ago it was announced that the aging A-10’s are to have a service life extension to keep them around another 20 years, this was instead of going with a design for a new ground attack aircraft.
One point the article in Pop. Sci. did mention that can be confirmed is that both the Air Force and the Navy are retiring several airframes with out a manned replacement under development.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
It’s well established that the Black budgets for aircraft R&D and for procurement run into billions each year. Sweetman has been tracking developments for many years and has a more shrewd idea than most about what’s going on.
As you say “Maybe Sweetman has some treasure trove of corroborating data that he doesn’t share in his article. ” — yes, he almost certainly does. One of the most frustrating thing about this business is the things you know but can’t write about…and given the level of his contacts that has to be the case here. (Of course they may feed in some disinformation as well).
But what’s the alternative? If he’s wrong, what are all though black billions going on?
For FY2006, the USAF is spending $13 billion of its $42 billions procurement budget on black items. What’s in their shopping basket if not what Sweeetman says??
Time to do some fact checking. Boeing did not purchase Northrop Grumman’s Military Aircraft Division. Unless I’m missing something, NG’s Integrated Systems sector is heavily involved in producing combat aircraft. Indeed, the “Boeing B-2″ was designed and produced by NG.
YF113G to be specific. Supposedly Vanderhorst testflew this aircraft, but when asked about it said that the chances of the aircraft being declassified any time soon were very slim.
“For FY2006, the USAF is spending $13 billion of its $42 billions procurement budget on black items. What’s in their shopping basket if not what Sweeetman says??“
What’s in their shopping baskets? How about satellites. Big expensive satellites — and programs to be able to find other people’s satellites and blow them up.
Given that it is at least somewhat prohibited by treaty, you’d probably want to keep the weaponization of space on the black side of the budget.
AREA 51 I believe did hold some remnants of alien space craft back in the 50’s or so. Its obvious that the U.S. is benefiting from alien technology that is used in the newer “stealth” planes. Not so much the propulsion system (which was destroyed in the original crash) but the materials used that make up the “composite” skin of these aircraft. It seems they finally figured something out from the debris that was left. Ever wonder why UFO’s are seen on radar, now they cant see us. I wouldn’t be surprise that more citings occur when numerous stealth aircraft are airborn but it will be eyes only.
“For more than a decade, the U.S. government has been trying to get a $2.3-billion refund on the A-12 from Boeing, which now owns Northrop Grumman’s aircraft division.“
As quoted from the link given for the A-12:
” On January 13, 1988 the McDonnell Douglas and General Dynamics team was selected over a Northrop team to develop the ATA.”
You wonder why alien spacecraft are never seen on radar?
BECAUSE THEY DON’T EXIST!!!
It’s the same reason we don’t see Santa Claus or Superman or flying purple dragons on radar.
Ahhh you can’t see some stealth planes on radar? Doesnt mean they done exist?
I guess Brian won’t belive in god ethier
Trust me we test more than just airplanes there. Things like experimental physics and Philiedephia experiment type of stuff. And yes that experiment actually happened.
Also aliens do exist you just arent supposed to know about them. and they arent at Are 51.
David — Tha e black budget money comes form DoD’s budget…Its not specifically targeted at the AF.
Jello — You can weaponize space…The treaty only involves WMD’s in space…A treaty BTW, that the US has never signed. If there are offensive weapons in space…They would still hide them…if nothing else, it would be because of some very bad PR & Rival nations would be pissed…Not because we weaponized it…but that we did it before them.
Kelvin — Your very wrong.
Stealth Aircraft can be tracked back to programs, that involved one thing…scientists…not aliens.
BTW, Alien space craft (yes I believe aliens exist) have been tracked on radar many times.
Ramjets can only reach Mach 3 or 4. Aurora, if real, would most likely be powered by PDEs (Pulse Detonation Engines).
AXEMAN FTW~!
The pro’s and con’s discussed here do not talk about what we know has been built at area 51. Why has the longest runway in history been built at the base? In my experience with our goverment such things do not happen on a whim. Something fast is landing in the desert of Nevada that requires a very long runway.
re: Scott’s comment:
“Something fast is landing in the desert of Nevada that requires a very long runway.“
Sorry, old boy, you have it backwards. Long runways are used to get something very big, and very heavy off the ground.
If one’s aircraft is (still) going ‘very fast’ there is no need to land (yet).
Great article!
If you look at the super long runway at area 51 you will find it has Xs painted on over half of it. This is how they mark a runway that is closed and unsafe to use. You will also see the cracks that have been filled with tar this runway looks like it may have been built for a one time short term project. As that big of cracking means that when it was built they did not dig out and build up a proper under-bed of gravel and crushed rock that you would need on a runway for long term heavy use. If you look at the google maps sat photos of the center taxiway that is being built you will see them doing a lot of grading and packing of the area before they put down the new the new paving. This must be done about 5x deeper then used on a freeway. The old super long runway may have been used for the early U2 test. By the X marking the only part of the old runway that is still being used is south of the center taxiway.
what is the landing speed and runway required for the current space shuttle, maybe those numbers would put to rest the buzz about groom lakes x-out runway mystery.…and further understand what black projects could be operating out of area-51.
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There’s something that indoubtly force anybody to believe in Aurora existence:the sonic boom. It has been targeted by National earthquake sismograph grid, as it decelerated towards its home base. I’ve read the assumptions it was flying higher than Mach 6. In fact, it was published in Jane’s International Defence Review. In addition to that, B-2 is a subsonic bomber, so it could not create the “doghnut shape” conning that has been reported. I would bet something quite important USAF planners have been looking forward to gain the ability to hit anyplace in the world in minutes frame. I think we will discover USAF has this capability sooner than later
The design of the plane is good but the wings are too long, you can make planes even without wings, i have a design as such.
Area 51 is nothing more then bullshit. They put Area 51 out there as a top seceret base. It is nothing more then a de-co cause the american people are so gullible they believe anything. They put Area 51 out there so the people will not look else where. The government does not have to show us top seceret stuff all the time. Look at what happen to the Manhattan Project we told some body now everybody else has the weapon, sometime the american people just needs to keep there nose out of the governments business. People do not think about National Security any more like we did in WWII.
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