HA HA HA HA.
I — Jeffrey Lewis, crossposting from Arms Control Wonk — love the US Geological Survey.
They’ve published lat/long (41.294 N, 129.134 E) and Mb estimates (4.2) for the North Korean test.
There is lots of data floating around: The CTBTO called it 4.0; The South Koreans report 3.58–3.7.
You’re thinking, 3.6, 4.2, in that neighborhood. Seismic scales, like the Richter, are logarithmic, so that neighborhood can be pretty big.
But even at 4.2, the test was probablya dud.
Estimating the yield is tricky business, because it depends on the geology of the test site. The South Koreans called the yield half a kiloton (550 tons), which is more or less — a factor of two — consistent with the relationship for tests in that yield range at the Soviet Shagan test site:
Mb = 4.262 + .973LogW
Where Mb is the magnitude of the body wave, and W is the yield.
3.58–3.7 gives you a couple hundred tons (not kilotons), which is pretty close in this business unless you’re really math positive. The same equation, given the US estimate of 4.2, yields (pun intended) around a kiloton.
A plutonium device should produce a yield in the range of the 20 kilotons, like the one we dropped on Nagasaki. No one has ever dudded their first test of a simple fission device. North Korean nuclear scientists are now officially the worst ever.
Of course, I want to see what the US IC says. If/when the test vents, we could have some radionuclide data — maybe in the next 72 hours or so.
But, from the initial data, I’d say someone with no workable nuclear weapons (Kim Jong Il, I am looking at you) should be crapping his pants right now.
First the missile, then the bomb. Got anything else you wanna try out there, chief?
– Jeffrey Lewis, cross-posted at Arms Control Wonk.com
UPDATE 10/10/06 1:14 AM: Noah here. Looks like the LA and NY Times have both picked up (sorta) on what the good Wonk was sayin’.
Throughout history, the first detonations of aspiring nuclear powers have tended to pack the destructive power of 10,000 to 60,000 tons 10 to 60 kilotons of conventional high explosives.
But the strength of the North Korean test appears to have been a small fraction of that: around a kiloton or less, according to scientists monitoring the global arrays of seismometers that detect faint trembles in the earth from distant blasts…
Philip E. Coyle III, a former director of weapons testing at the Pentagon and former director of nuclear testing for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, a weapons design center in California, said the small size of the test signaled the possibility of what might be described as a partial success or a partial failure.
As first tests go, this is smaller and less successful than those of the other nuclear powers, he said.
Perhaps the North Koreans wanted to keep it small, he added. But if it turns out to be a kiloton or less, Dr. Coyle said, that would suggest that they hoped for more than that and didnt get it.
UPDATE 10/10/06 8:45 AM: Rumor alert! Stratfor is pretty sure that the Nork nuke — “about one-fortieth of the Nagasaki blast” — was a dud, too. But, just to be on the safe side, the intel service offers up “three possible explanations for the apparently small yield: the North Koreans deliberately detonated a very small device, they tested a larger device but it failed to execute properly, or the explosion was not caused by an atomic device.”
Possibly the North Koreans wanted to show that they had the technology but did not want to appear too threatening, so they minimized the size. Or they could be demonstrating the ability to use lower-yield nuclear mines or artillery shells that would protect North Korea by blocking strategic passes into the country, and would possibly threaten Seoul but would not pose a significant threat elsewhere. Also, the water table is high in the area of the blast; maybe they were being careful not to break into the aquifer.
These are all good reasons, but the counterargument is that if you are going to go nuclear, go nuclear. North Korea does not have a pressing need — or history — of being subtle, so a small blast doesn’t fit in with its plan…
What if the North Koreans didn’t go nuclear, but detonated a large chemical explosive in an underground chamber? It would take a lot of explosive to yield that result, but it is not impossible. A chemical explosion would have a different seismic signature than a nuclear one, and therefore geologists should have already discounted this theory; but the analysis is going to take up to two days, according to the White House. It is certainly not beyond the North Koreans to fake a nuclear explosion, and there have been some big explosions in North Korea that have been mistaken, for a short period of time, for something nuclear. But there is no evidence, beyond our speculation, for this theory.
UPDATE 10/10/06 8:51 AM: Interesting counter-argument from Trent Telenko in the comments. Since North Korea has “had the complete design specifications for a Chinese missile-ready nuclear warhead of the plutonium implosion type for years,” thanks to the A.Q. Khan network, this dud may be more dangerous than it seems.
{ 142 comments… read them below or add one }
Also, significantly, a few hundred tons to about 1kT, unlike, say 20kT, is within the ranger where it’s at least remotely conceivable that some huge amount of conventional explosives (even ANFO) could have been used to simulate/fake a nuke explosion. I say remotely conceivable not because it’s unheard of logistically (hello, Divine Strake) but because I imagine that our intelligence community would be able to tell the difference between someone installing a nuclear device and someone installing two million pounds of cow pie and diesel. (Of course, some people were speculating the Norks would try to fake a test in the 20kT range, but I don’t even want to think about how much ANFO that would be – ridonculous).
bleh…i wouldn’t be surprised if this was a successful test, but i don’t think the Norks produced it. i suspect it was a small ex-Soviet device…perhaps an atomic shell from way-back-when (US equivalent was ‘Atomic Annie’). i find it interesting that Russia is the only one besides DPRK so far to come out and say 100% that it was an atomic device.
I wonder if this old story has anything to do with the situation? North Korea Train Explosion
From what I know of DPRK’s weapons scientist community, they generally come off as relatively unimaginative. What are the chances that the Norks just packed a ball of plutonium in a large wad of semtex, instead of using a shell of explosive lenses? Could that explain the weak yield?
Also, Japanese papers are calling the yield at about 800 tons of TNT, which lines up with Dr. Lewis’s guess.
(Of course, some people were speculating the Norks would try to fake a test in the 20kT range, but I don’t even want to think about how much ANFO that would be – ridonculous)
Um, about 25,000 tons to 12,500 tons, depending on mix and fuel? But thats effieicnecy to TNT, not nessecarily to the assigned energy to TNT.
I’m with everyone else on this. It’s a dud, or just high explosives. Less than 1kT, please. Not a nuclear power yet. Not that anyone in the UN cares enough to do anything other than put out press statements, and threaten sanctions.
“Jeffrey Lewis” from the Maryland School of Public Affairs (now MPP)?
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Poor Foley, if he only knew this. But I also wonder Why Nancy Polosi likes Michael Jackson so much and yet she hates Foley. I think they are both wrong. Perhaps Nancy has a double standard.
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I don’t know which are more disturbing, the paranoid types who think this test means the start of WWIII, or the complacent ones who think this is a ‘dud’.
Do you have any idea what even a nuke this size would do to an American city? Less nuclear material burned means more in the fallout.
Not to mention spooking the already twitchy Japanese into building nukes. They REALLY didn’t like those ballistic missiles going over thier island.
China has to be getting the eqivalent of a migrane right now
Japan won’t do anything with nukes…the US is partnered closely with Japan, and still has air bases there. Japan will simply echo the requests by the US to the UN Security Council. It’s China that the Norks have to worry about. China is emerging onto the global scene in a big way, and they are seeking alot of economic interaction with alot of allied countries. China may just decide that Kim Jong II has spit in their face (the warning 20 min. in advance is a joke)and they may decide to support actions more severe than just sanctions. I think the real opposition here to any reaction, as usual, will be Russia.
Robot Economist posted:
“What are the chances that the Norks just packed a ball of plutonium in a large wad of semtex…”
The chances are very small. I am not an expert (just an engineer with some physics classes), but it is very difficult to get the stuff to go nuclear (at least with a fast enough reaction). Chances are he did not use the shell method at all I believe the gun type of assembly is supposed to be much easier to do. Also the guy probably got a reaction, but the weapon blew it self to pieces before all of the fuel was consumed, therefore dropping the yield (thus it was a dud).
I’d be interested to read your re-rebuttal to Donald Sensing’s rebuttal…
http://tinyurl.com/kzn3v
Ron Moses
Dud or not, a 500 ton explosion in any city would be devastating…that’s the equivalent of 250 MOABs, no?
It suits the pupose it is intended for, though obviously I’ll be a lot more concerned if/when they get a Hydrogen reaction going.
Everyone who knows anything about nukes (or can be bothered to spend more than a few minutes googling) knows that a gun type device cannot be used with Pu-239. it tends to pre-ignite and fizzle. a gun type only works with U-235. an implosion type is mandatory for use with Pu-239.
I suppose that an imminent “retirement”, via quiet violence of NK leader might be the most do-able and satisfactory response; giving a bit of breathing room, sending a message to his follow-on wannabes; even perhaps sparking a bit of change in NK…
military response would be lengthy, hazardous, costly, and largly ineffectual. Sanctions are empty threats.
Consider history…..an Axis of Japan and Germany? who woulda thought that they would have any common interests at all?
I give you: Iran and North Korea.
yummy, huh?
Nobody is talking about several pieces of this puzzle:
1: Hu just regained control of chinas shanghigh region by capturing the top people there that have been giving him finger for the last two years. Now that big daddy Hu isnt occupied with his internal prolems he can turn to his unruly dog, lil kim.
2: Kim irritated Hu & company by stealing several trians form them, they came with suppleis, he let hte train personel go home but kept Hu’s trains.
I just HAVE to say this; no one else seems to.
Whether the NK test was successful or not, is immaterial. Whether Iran will gain nuclear threshold soon is immaterial.
Fission is not needed. Missiles are not needed. Container delivery is to pat…
Any potential adversary, WHO HAS ACCESS TO MERE RADIOLOGICAL MATERIALS OF ANY KIND……can fashion a “dirty” bomb.
A firearm going off in a crowded football stadium might kill a person; but the ensuing panic stampede at the exits have the potential to kill many more. so it is with radiocative “dirty” weapons………and anyone can put one in a sailboat and cruise to any major U.S. city. Think NEST would find em? maybe, maybe not….its the uncertainty that is key…
THAT is “terror” And there is no sure defense.
This conversation string is getting pretty hysterical. The readers need to realize a few simple facts:
1) Whether North Korea or Iran develop nuclear weapons does not automatically translate into their usage. Every other nuclear weapons state in the world maintains their arsenal for deterrence purposes. What makes you think the mullahs or the Dear Leader are any different?
2) An implosion device requires some pretty precise kit. If the Norks can’t get it right in a controlled setting, they won’t be able to mount it on a Scu… I mean, No Dong.
Besides dishing out a little well-deserved ribbing to the DPRK’s scientists, I think the thrust of Dr. Lewis’s article was to highlight how things aren’t as bad as they seem. Nonproliferation policies may not stop proliferation completely, but they can bring the process to a crawl. If you’re smart, you will use the time gained to convince the state purusing nuclear weapons to back off or if you’re Bush, prepare for an invasion.
A few points of clarification:
Both South Korea and Taiwan had nuclear weapons programs, but gave them up in their infancy in the 1970s and 1980s. The IAEA even caught Taiwan trying to divert plutonium from a heavy water reactor back in 1988.
Pu-238 isn’t used in gun-type nuclear weapons because it tends to fizzle unless it is 100% pure. Even trance amounts of Pu-240 can stifle the reaction.
In theory, the Norks did not use up their supply of Pu-239 with this test. An implosion device works by forcing a sub-critical mass of Pu to go critical by crushing it with explosive force. If the critical mass of Pu-239 is 10kg, then this test had to have used less than that. I can’t remember what the Intelligence Community has said about the Nork’s potential Pu supply, but I think it is supposed to be between 60-80kg, maybe more.
Could it just have not been a subcritical test? We (the US) do that all the time as part of stockpile stewardship program
Gabe,
I would say it’s definitely a destabilizing factor in the global scene. Now more than ever, countries are allied with other countries who are enemies of other countries and have ‘relations’ with still other countries. A destabilizing action such as this could very well turn out to be the trigger for a ‘domino effect’, resulting in larger conflicts than just North Korea. I truly think that regime change is the only way, but that is pretty much impossible in North Korea.
Can’t we all just get along? Dong or no dong?
4.2 = ~2.5 kilotons, which is all one really needs to jumpstart a teller-ulam device. If the the norte koreanos had sheated the device in radioactive waste products from their nuclear industry it could make a device capable of rendering tokyo and her suburbs uninhabitable for a generation or so.
robot economist asked: 1) What makes you think the mullahs or the Dear Leader are any different? [in their possible use of nukes]
Umm… gee, I wonder if it is their suicidal fanatacism that makes me think this, or their stated goal to destroy Israel, “wipe it off the map” I think they said.
Here now lets go back to those glorious days before TRINITY in our ‘Way-Back’ Machine and see what 100 tons of conventional explosives could do. (With photos!) I guess they had to calibrate various widgets before TRINITY in 1945.
Ooops here is the url on conventional explosion 100 tons before TRINITY
http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Tests/Trinity.html
Azrael, are you suggesting the “norte koreanos” will go from not having a proven fission device to a fully functional hydrogen weapon, without testing the intermediate steps?
before making fun of North Korea, remember that Teller’s first independent nuke test from Lawrence Livermore was a fizzle. the Nevada Test Site was annoyed because they had to disassemble the stub of its test tower, using workers in full protective suits. usually tests are thorough and competent enough to erase all residuals and self-declassify the site.
now, sure, if this was a pure plutonium or comparable fission device, a fizzle could be embarrassing. but given that the only art in such a weapon is the mechanical trigger, well what else would you have fail? on the other hand, if indeed this is just the booster element for a bigger Teller-Ulam or something else, which i very much doubt, by the way, why would anyone expect it to work the first time?
finally, in all the hubbub about North Korea and Iran, it’s important to note that all present nuclear powers, including the United States and Russia, are in stark violation of the terms of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. why should any country observe certain aspects when signatories choose to ignore parts at their discretion? the last time i checked, international treaties weren’t subject to “presidential signing statements”. the Military Commissions Act was a good try at that, but then that’s a unilateral move. i don’t think we got much respect with that.
a clear distinction needs to be made between the effects of a “dirty bomb” and nuclear devices.
the only reason a “dirty bomb” would have appreciable effect in the United States is principally because of the ignorance of the population regarding science in general and nuclear physics in particular. guidance says most people in the vicinity could be protected by wearing coats, long sleeve shirts and pants, and going home and showering. obviously the unlucky ones in the immediate vicinity of the explosion would have bigger problems. but that’s true with a conventional explosive.
the loss of the area to commerce and living is psychological. cleanup would not be that bad. in my opinion, exaggerating the effects of a “dirty bomb” is helping terrorists win.
on the other hand, a nuclear weapon would kill and do damage to infrastructure that would be significant, depending upon size. it’s not like we can’t do anything about that either. we’re not willing to, because of stupid risk assessments and ideology. in particular, the government should prod (using incentives if they want) industry to diversity the geographic positioning of infrastructure so we wouldn’t lose so much if a sensitive point were attacked, e.g., Philadelphia’s port. but, of course, there’s a group of folks who consider that excessive interference by government “in the marketplace”. they feel the same way about protecting national assets against hurricanes and earthquakes.
and we keep electing them because, according to everyone’s opinion, they are the ones who know how to do national security right.
Azr@el,
well the latter is a fission device.
and, yes, then we’re talkin’ serious shit.
What is this paranoia about radiological weapons and crazy Kim? You all have been watching too much “24″. Over hyped! It can terrorize the ignorant masses, but won’t kill anybody. Not the same from the detonation of a low grade, low yield (<20kT) fission device, which could only be delivered affectively by terrorists; and even that is not as easy as everyone fears.
I am amazed the world allows issues to fester for decades, 1953 for crying out loud. If China, South Korea, Japan, and Russian aren’t willing drop the anvil on Kim’s sorry ass, then we should ignore this so called nuclear test, fait accompli. The world bitches about unilateralism, well it is time for others to step up. China dreams of being an Asian superpower, well here is their chance to be a hero. They need to shine their light onto that
this just in….guess who was on the board of the company that sold the Norks their two reactors? RUMMY.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/korea/article/0,2763,952289,00.html
If the true purpose was to create a Nuclear bomb it was a dud or a suitcase nuke.
But if the true plan was to create a Radiation bomb i wouldn’t call it a dud. The one basic fact that is working against Korea is amount of land they have to waste. The US had vast swaths of land they contaminated and destroyed in the process of making nuclear material for the first three bombs.
Of these places i doubt there is a single one of them that we can safely use today with out getting cancers related to radiation poisoning.
Congratulations Korea you just poisoned much needed land to support your people. Welcome to the nuclear club. Now clean up your mess!
D~W
Who knew Kim Jong-il had a website? Please email him…
http://www.devildwarf.com
I like his domain name…
Re: livng in test zones, detecting underground tests, and sub kiloton yields, all in one article.
http://www.journalnow.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=WSJ%2FMGArticle%2FWSJ_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031783753122
Uh, those were light water reactors, specifically, so that they could not produce plutonium, and they were sold the NK at the behest of Clinton and Carter, who had extracted the promise from “My Ronrey”, that he would not build nuclear weapons in exchange. A promise that Kim was found to have welched on sometime around 2000 or 2001.
This was the “successful” diplomacy of the Democrats at work. Why blame Rummy?
The reason so many Lefties are young is that you either have to be so ignorant of history to buy what they are selling.
thank you ninjascience…that’s precisely what i was thinking of.
moptop…i’m not Democrat OR Republican…i don’t give a rat’s ass who has the majority vote or who holds the administrative positions, as long as they do what’s best for the people they are supposed to be serving.
the fact remains that this administration has been motivated primarily by economics, and has underestimated our enemies and overstepped their authority on supposed national security issues.
it doesn’t matter what political side they are on…clearly something must change.
To PL above,
who states the Clinton Carter agreement has turned out to be worthless.
This view overlooks the simple fact that approx 80% of NK plutonium stockpile has been generated since Bush scared the crap out of them in 2002. Prior to that the reactor and rods were locked up and under surveillance for 8 years.
The breach on NK part was centrifuge technology for enriched uranium a slower way to go and less of a threat. We also had not followed through on our part of the deal. The bottom line is it was the Bush admin that convinced them to crank up the nuke program into high gear.
Just sayin.
In addition to the seismic differences, you would think that moving 1000 tons of explosives into a mine shaft would be relatively easy to notice. After all, it’s quite a significant amount of material.
moptop – I am a 24 year-old defense techie, consider myself at least left-friendly and I remember the terms of the 1994 Agreed Framework. The North agreed to shutdown their heavy-water reactor in Pyongyang in exchange for shipments of fuel oil and two light-water reactors.
It is harder to breed Pu-239 – one type of fissile material used in nuclear devices – in light-water reactors because they burn up the LEU fuel before concentrations of Pu-239 can build up.
The leftish media really biffed on their Rumsfeld-nuclear reactor story. A little fact checking would help once in a while.
About Trent’s comments: the Chinese design that went to Pakistan and then to Libya courtesy of AQK is not a plutonium weapon, but an HEU weapon. Assuming the same design is in the possession of NORK (via Beijing or AQK), it would be surprising that the test used it: this would mean that their HEU program is way, way more advanced than generally thought. But then again, we now know (from Musharraf’s memoirs) that AQK sold them not only P1, but also P2 centrifuges…
People should be laughing LOUDLY at KJI’s Nuk I’ve known folks that could Pass gass with more force
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bleh…i wouldn’t be surprised if this was a successful test, but i don’t think the Norks produced it. i suspect it was a small ex-Soviet device…perhaps an atomic shell from way-back-when (US equivalent was ‘Atomic Annie’). i find it interesting that Russia is the only one besides DPRK so far to come out and say 100% that it was an atomic device.
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i find it interesting that Russia is the only one besides DPRK so far to come out and say 100% that it was an atomic device.
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bleh…i wouldn’t be surprised if this was a successful test, but i don’t think the Norks produced it.
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Also, significantly, a few hundred tons to about 1kT, unlike, say 20kT, is within the ranger where it’s at least remotely conceivable that some huge amount of conventional explosives (even ANFO) could have been used to simulate/fake a nuke explosion. I say remotely conceivable not because it’s unheard of logistically (hello, Divine Strake) but because I imagine that our intelligence community would be able to tell the difference between someone installing a nuclear device and someone installing two million pounds of cow pie and diesel. (Of course, some people were speculating the Norks would try to fake a test in the 20kT range, but I don’t even want to think about how much ANFO that would be – ridonculous
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shell from way-back-when (US equivalent was ‘Atomic Annie’). i find it interesting that Russia is the only one besides DPRK so far to come out and say 100% that it was an atomic device.
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I wonder if this old story has anything to do with the situation? North Korea Train Explosion
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Also, significantly, a few hundred tons to about 1kT, unlike, say 20kT, is within the ranger where it’s at least remotely conceivable
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Also, significantly, a few hundred tons to about 1kT, unlike, say 20kT, is within the ranger where it’s at least remotely conceivable that some huge amount of conventional explosives (even ANFO) could have been used to simulate/fake a nuke explosion. I say remotely conceivable not because it’s unheard of logistically (hello, Divine Strake) but because I imagine that our intelligence community would be able to tell the difference between someone installing a nuclear device and someone installing two million pounds of cow pie and diesel. (Of course, some people were speculating the Norks would try to fake a test in the 20kT range, but I don’t even want to think about how much ANFO that would be – ridonculous).
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