There are still a whole heap of unknowns, in the wake of North Korea’s nuclear test. But here’s something you can take to the bank: every admiral, every Air Force general, and every Congresscritter with a big, hulking, weapon system is going to crow about how his gazillion-dollar machine is the key to fixing the Korean problem.
Even before Kim’s October surprise, Air Force officials like Maj. Gen. Charles Dunlap Jr. were railing against “boots-on-the-ground zealots” and “neo-Luddites” who “quot[e] counterinsurgency manuals from the horse cavalry era.” Instead, Dunlap insisted, we should be pouring money into “air power our most effective national security component.“
With the Army lobbying for a bigger chunk of the Pentagon budget, expect the volume on these Air Force and Navy-first screams to be turned up several notches in the months to come. Wanna shell the Norks’ nuke facilities from way out in the sea? Then you need a big ol’ DD(X) destroyer to do the shelling. Attacking from the air? For that, you just have to have a next-generation, long-range bomber. Oh, and a whole bunch of conventionally-armed Trident ballistic missiles, too. And so on…
Of course, “American air units in South Korea, Japan, and the United States, plus the US Third and Seventh Fleets, are available to blockade North Korea and strike at targets of opportunity” today, Arms and Influence notes.
However, it remains to be seen what opportunities for punitive and disarming strikes exist, or what the North Korean response would be… The facilities are too dispersed, often in the worst kind of geography for precision bombing, mountainous terrain. Even if the US were able to hit every North Korean nuclear and production facility, the obvious question would be, What’s next?
We can predict at least one immediate consequence: a North Korean attack on South Korea. Whether the North Korean army tries to seize control of the South, or merely retaliate with conventional and chemical artillery attacks on Seoul and other population centers, the US would need ground forces to take the next step: eliminate the North Korean government. Even with its nuclear fangs removed, the North Korean government would remain a menace to the South, and perhaps would have reasons to try for one last gamble to end the decades-long stalemate on the Korean peninsula…
The United States has an impressive array of carrier battle groups, attack submarines, tactical air assets, and strategic bombers that it can hurl at North Korea. However, the last several years have taught Americans an important lesson about warfare: your own strength matters far less than what you actually do with it.
UPDATE 4:39 PM: The Herald-Tribune has a good rundown of just how piss-poor the Norks’ conventional forces really are.
The military in North Korea is by far the largest consumer of the countrys scarce resources. But even so, its combat jet pilots get only about two hours of flying time a month, its soldiers sometimes have to grow their own food, and much of its equipment is old and outclassed by that of its neighbors. According to South Korean and Western experts, if a conventional war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, the best the North Korean military could manage would be to fight to a bloody stalemate.
It is the deep insecurity born of these shortcomings, the experts say, and not any desire to grab attention or gain leverage, that drove President Kim Jong-ils decision to defy international warnings and declare this week that his country had tested a nuclear weapon.
Damn… great insightful write up. I read your posts everyday and this one really kept my attention from the first word to the last. Thanks…
If it wasn’t for the thousands of artillery pieces lobbing shells into Seoul at the first sign of an Allied attack, NK would have been history, and finally reunited with the South. We could destroy most targets by air. Unfortunately it would be the mother of all humanitarian and peacekeeping operations after the war, and we have proven clueless and impotent in that particular mission.
It is anyone looking forward to another 50 years of that nut job Kim in power? Why does the world tolerate this BS?
BT captured the two key reasons why an air power/naval bombardment campaign wouldn’t work:
1) The Norks have hundreds of artillery pieces scattered just beyond the DMZ that could easily reach Seoul.
2) An attack on the Norks will spark an enormous humanitarian crisis within the DPRK, causing thousands of refugees to flood towards the Yalu and the DMZ.
Any attack on the DPRK will result in the leveling of Seoul by conventional muntions. It could be even worse if the Norks actually use their antiquate chemical weapons or manage to piece together a functioning nuke. Scale and unconventional weapons are the poor man’s answer to a technological superior force armed with PGMs.
Furthermore, a large number of troops will be needed to stablize North Korean society and take out the remnants of the Kim regime. Even though the humantarian situation in the DPRK is more dire than it was in Iraq circa 2003, we shouldn’t underestimate popular resistance to the U.S. and ROK.
The Kim regime has cultivated a nationalistic ideology (Juche) that emphasizes suspicion towards foreigners and the U.S. and South Koreans in particular.
My biggest concern is that the current debate over air power/naval bombardment doesn’t consider the role of third parties. What if the People’s Liberation Army crosses the border to stabilize the situation in the DPRK when the dust settles? They definitely have the manpower and the relatively good image to successfully occupy North Korea if it appears that the Dear Leader and his allies will crumble.
Although the Chinese wouldn’t annex the DPRK outright, I wouldn’t put it past them to install a puppet regime in Pyongyang. They would claim the north isn’t ready to be integrated into a democratic, captialist society and needs to be managed by a revisionist Communist party. That would really muck things up, wouldn’t it?
The United States should not undertake any unilateral action against the North Koreans. Whatever we would do, the greatest pain which would be the consequence of such action would be borne by the South Koreans first, and by the Japanese second. We have so little at risk, compared to what is at stake for these two countries; but what we have at risk is not insignificant: about 30,000 servicemen and an equal number of American civilians in South Korea; and there are even more stationed in and around bases in Japan.
North Korea has been preparing for a confrontation with American and South Korean forces for decades. Everyone is free to speculate how the North would try to gain a quick military advantage against the US/ROK joint forces. But it is entirely feasible that the North could take 25–50 miles of South Korean territory, capturing or killing most of the U.S. military and civilians in and near Seoul. Given our small and exhausted military, the U.S. can’t be sure of preventing this catastrophe from occurring without resort to immediate and first use of tactical nuclear weapons against the North on our part.
We have no options but to defer to the political wills of South Korea and Japan on this matter.
Don’t forget the CG(X), which is now being touted as a missile defense cruiser, repurposed a year or two ago from previous missions to fit the latest hot threat and the Navy’s success relative to the Air Force in missile defense program tests.
A comment on the “lets use the old WWII Battleships ” posting .
This battleships were magnificent and pretty much invincible –in the 1940s.As you say they could sail up and down the coast of the two Koreas and shell the hell out of something .And nothing could stop them –unless you count a nuclear device as a threat ? Hello! Massive ground or sea operations against a quirky nuclear power — no there is a plan with a few big IFs in it..
Rolf
The Navy Admirals/Defense Contractors strike again. Betting on the DDX Destroyers with their paper thin plating, 5 inch guns, slow speeed. I believe the cost of one round is $1,000,000 each. Their stealth capabilities are useless now since China, Austraila, France, etc. have bought the next generation of radar. These ships cannot be reloaded from the sea they have to go back to a base to be reloaded. In addition, the first ship will not be ready until 2010.
The Battleships not just two of them but all four of them need to be recommissioned. Yes, these ships are 60 years old but what about the B-52 Bombers. Aren’t they over 50 years old? They are still in service and keep on getting upgraded. Why not the Battleships? The Battleships were designed to go toe to toe with the Japanese 18″ guns and survive. During WWII, the Battleship USS Carolina (smaller battleship than the Iowa Class) took a torpedo hit from a Japanese sub. The Carolina was not damaged and continued the fight. This torpedo was load with 2,000 pounds of TNT, almost the same amount used on the USS Cole. The Cole almost sunk. Currently, there is nothing out their as far as the anti ship missles that would put a scratch in the Iowa Class Battleships. In 1968, the military already had tested rounds fired from the 16″ guns that had a range of 100 miles. These ships are fast. They can do up to 35 knots. They can refuel other ships. They have the facilities to serve as a hospital. They have served as an additional air traffic controllers. These ships can hold a ton of supplies. They could sustain shore bombardment for a week/s where the DDX (approximately 20 DDXs would be needed to equal the firepower of one Battleship) and in two to three days would have to leave to get resupplied. The history of the ships prove how valuable they have been in the US war efforts. These ships can save many lives (There is no dollar amount that you can assign to a life)and aircrafts. Plus if there is bad weather, where are you going to get your air support if needed. It would take numerous flights (aircraft at appx $350 million each)to deliver the same amount of firepower from one shell from a Battleship.
Finally, please see the Commentary dated 6/18/06, the “Iranian Threat Defined” by William L. Stearman.
In August 2002, the Pentagon Joint Forces war game, Millennium Challenge 2002 (Persian Gulf Area), the Red(Iranian) Team headed by ace war gamer Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper USMC (Ret.), launched a salvo of cruise missles, including Sunburns, from aircraft, small ships, and shore batteries which overwhelmed the Aegis cruiser defense and sank 16 Blue Team (US)ships including an aircraft carrier, Aegis cruisers, and six amphibious ships. (Gen. Van Riper’s far to realistic scenario was disallowed and remains closely-held by the Pentagon).
Anyone want to explain why, more than 53 years after a cease fire was signed between North Korea and the U.S., there is still no peace treaty between the two? Or why the U.S. fails to answer the DPRK’s calls for a peace treaty?
Enemies are good. They justify a whole bunch of stuff that you couldn’t otherwise do … what would a hot war in Asia accomplish, aside of course from further global destablization, more indirect economic attrition of American citizens, higher profits for military industrialists, etc.?
Boy, the retards are out in force today. Must be field trip day.
The reasons we don’t use old battleships are numerous. For one, they’re expensive as all hell, not only to build, but to maintain, as well. Not to mention those things are too antiquated, and don’t have the power systems to operate a modern radar system. You overestimate their durability as well. Battleships weren’t invulnerable in WWII, and they aren’t today either. The difference is, when a battleship sinks, you lose 1000+ sailors, instead of the hundred or so on a DDX. One mine is all it takes, and those things will sink like a stone.
People here are thinking too small. An old army Sgt. told me he was stationed on the DMZ for a while way back in the day. The Norks poured across the border and killed some American soliders. We fought them back to their side, then the CO ordered nuclear rounds from howitzer’s lobbed at them. So they were. Another nuclear exchange that you never knew about. They are just waiting to fire up those guns again.
Colleen, thanks for the rant. Wonderful punctuation btw. Now, take another deep hit off that crack pipe you are smoking, and stop your off-topic whining.
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