So here we are, 36 hours later, and everybody is still talking about North Korea’s nuclear test. But despite all the nervous chatter, not much has changed, at least in the short term. (Down the road is a much different story.)
Condemnations of the Norths brazen act aside, China is no more willing now than they were last week to risk a collapsed regime on their border — it almost assures a flood of refugees and a US military ally sharing a border with China. The USs options are similarly limited even if we know where all their nuclear sites are, its unlikely wed be willing to bet that the unpredictable Kim regime wouldnt retaliate against Seoul. That leaves us to do what weve gotten good at with North Korea: issuing a strong condemnation and then hoping that CNN switches back over to coverage of Jon Benet Ramsey.
The only big potential short term implication is if the international community demonstrates that this test was a fake, or a dud. Then the North will be forced to up the ante to compensate for the embarrassment (just as the nuke test was to compensate for the humiliating failure of the July long range missile test).
The real impact of the Kim’s nuclear trial is in the long term. That’s when things have the potential to get extremely scary. Not only do you get the possibility of the Norks throwing a nuclear yard sale for terrorists. But for Japans new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, it energizes his push to strengthen Japans security capacity like nothing else could have. Abe had already appointed a number of fellow conservatives in Foreign Ministry and Defense positions in the cabinet, hes declared his intent to modify the constitutions limitations on Japanese military capacity, and he mooted the possibility for a Japanese pre-emptive strike against North Korea in the aftermath of the July missile tests. The pacifist nature of Japans constitution is reasonably well-ingrained in Japanese political culture, and he would have met a lot of resistance in these moves. That resistance will be drastically weakened by the North Korean test. From there, its a short logical step to the usual scenarios of a Sino-Japanese arms race in East Asia. And there’s only one word for how that scenario plays out: Gulp.
– Matthew Tompkins
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The rise of Japan is something China knows and understands, which is why they’ll agree to some degree of sanctions on NK. However much China fears a US presence in Asia, they’ll take it any day over a newly militaristic Japan.
Something that I don’t see anybody talking about is another reason for such a small yield: economy of scale.
When the US first began its’ nuclear program, the output of Special Nuclear Materials was measured in ounces.
They were so afraid of losing material that for the first test shot, a humongous metal doodad was erected at the site, ostenisbly to contain the material in the case of a dud. They decided not to use it, and the rest is history.
You know Il is cracking the whip to make his technical community produce. Maybe they only had enough material to produce 1 giant weapon, or 2 smaller ones; one to demonstrate capability, and one to threaten and posture with.
Or, maybe they were so afraid of the accuracy of the critical nuclear weapons data they bought/stole, that they didn’t want to risk the entirety of their nuclear stockpile on it.
A final guess is that they, like other nations, were concerned about a runaway device. In the FSSR, they could just abandon a part of the country. Where exactly do you run when you slime your ENTIRE country? And, the ramifications of crapping up a large part of the Chinese border regions?
So, they made their first test slightly above supercriticality, and underground, to minimize the possibility of contaminating their lands.
At any rate, nuclear briefcases are a writers’ fantasy.
Just some thoughts.
–Shawn
A comment on the scale of the North Koreans nuclear test : The yield of the device that was detonated is not yet precisely determined .However ‚considering the strained “economy” and resources of the North Korean regime it is fairly safe to say that scarcity of resources is likely to be a major factor in the somewhat “small” design of said device .It is entirely possible that the regime only had enough weapons grade plutonium for this one detonation, and that they felt their hand was better played if they detonated at this particular time .It is also possible that they have just enough for one or several more devices,and that they are conserving because of this .It is unlikely , however , given North Koreas technological level , that they do in fact have a “bomb” i.e a device readily deployed by missile or bomber .Eventually , given sufficient resource allocation to this project ‚the regime will develop such a weapon .
Rolf larsen
The implications of regime change in North Korea — a comment :
One of the things argued here is that the result of the North Koreans arming themselves with nuclear weapons could be a militaristic Japan , quite possibly armed with nuclear weapons .Considering the obligations Japan has made to non proliferation and its economys dependance on good relations with the West, this seems a highly unlikely scenario even in a perspective of 25 years.However,a strengthening of Japanese military capacity is not unlikely,given the latent unstability of the regions black sheep– North Korea.Both practical considerations such as the possibilty of infractions on Japans territorial integrity,and the domestic Japanese political situation with a large percentage clamoring for the JDF to be expanded in capacity could possibly prompt such a policy by Tokyo. That this should evolve into Japan emerging as regional military power seems highly unlikely however .
Rolf Larsen
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