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Home » Axe in Iraq (and Elsewhere) » Iranian invasion? Probably not

Iranian invasion? Probably not

Shi’ite mili­ti­a­men have seized con­trol of Al Amarah, the largest city in the south­ern province of Maysan, accord­ing to The L.A. Times:

Police bar­ri­caded them­selves inside their sta­tions and fought off the attack­ers, but even­tu­ally fled after run­ning out of ammu­ni­tion. The mili­ti­a­men, affil­i­ated with Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr, then stormed the sta­tions. At least 15 peo­ple were killed in fight­ing today and 90 peo­ple were injured. Another seven were killed the pre­vi­ous day.

272545580_631b40e465.jpgHere’s why you shouldn’t worry. The police in Al Amarah are some of the most thug­gish and cor­rupt in all of Iraq — and that’s say­ing a lot. For most Al Amarah res­i­dents, mili­tia con­trol might be an improve­ment.
But it’s not those poor Iraqis most pun­dits and politi­cians are wor­ried about. It’s Iran. And to those who paint Iraq in broad brush strokes, Shi’ite Iraqis and their mili­tias are just fronts for Tehran, which slips agents and weapons over the porous bor­der in the bot­toms of Marsh Arab fish­ing boats.
It’s a lit­tle more com­pli­cated than that, as I explain over at World Politics Watch:

For 4,000 years the [Shi’ite] Marsh Arabs have inhab­ited what is now south­ern Iraq. For much of that his­tory they were ignored by the var­i­ous gov­ern­ments that rose and fell in the region. The result is a xeno­pho­bic, deeply tra­di­tional soci­ety where tribal lead­ers are the high­est author­ity — and where polit­i­cal bor­ders are largely irrel­e­vant.
Not that those polit­i­cal bor­ders are always clear. Maysan’s marshes are a shift­ing land­scape devoid of per­ma­nent fea­tures. [British com­man­der Lieutenant Colonel David] Labouchere says it’s dif­fi­cult to mark a bor­der in such a place. “The divi­sion between Iran and Iraq is, at places, fuzzy,” he says. So fuzzy that, two years ago, eight British ser­vice­men were briefly detained by the Iranian mil­i­tary after acci­den­tally cross­ing into Iranian waters while deliv­er­ing boats to the Iraqi Navy.
If British troops can’t tell where Iraq ends and Iran begins, how can any­one expect illit­er­ate Marsh Arab fish­er­man to know and care — espe­cially when, from their shared point of view, bor­ders are mat­ters of tribe and mar­riage, not pol­i­tics and inter­na­tional agreement?

Bottom line: mili­tia seizure of Al Amarah doesn’t entail an Iranian inva­sion of Iraq any more than Marsh Arab fish­er­men are Iranian agents.
–David Axe

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October 20th, 2006 | Axe in Iraq (and Elsewhere) | 217526 Comments »http://defensetech.org/2006/10/20/iranian-invasion-probably-not/Iranian+invasion%3F+Probably+not2006-10-20+20%3A42%3A32wonk You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

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  1. Noah (the other one) says:
    October 20, 2006 at 6:27 pm

    One “inva­sion” is sim­ply jus­ti­fi­ca­tion for another.
    Subtle dis­tinc­tions (as well as the bla­tantly obvi­ous) have no effect on the war-​​crazed US gov­ern­ment. Simply put, Iran is the next phase of the global oil con­quest, and no amount of logic, dire fore­casts of eco­nomic ruin, mil­i­tary exhaus­tion, etc., can do any­thing to derail the vora­cious con­gres­sional — mil­i­tary — indus­trial — com­plex that really runs this coun­try.
    Peace is great, but the pay is peanuts …

    Reply
  2. campbell says:
    October 20, 2006 at 7:02 pm

    Iran next? we learned some time ago that Navy minesweep­ers were being sent to Gulf, by Oct 1. Likely prep for even­tual, inevitable US, or Israeli pre-​​emptive action against Iran.
    They also watched.….and then opened up nuclear sites to “tourists”.…..as human shields.
    recent actions of “Axis of Evil” part­ner North Korea,likely, resulted in post­pone­ment of next step in oil secure­ment.…
    still, inevitable as you say, The Other One.….note todays’ dia­tribe from Iran threat­en­ing European sup­port­ers of Isreal.……

    Reply
  3. worker says:
    October 23, 2006 at 5:22 pm

    most peo­ple in the world pay lots of money (and if they do not have the money, cheat, sneak, marry into) to just immi­grate and live in the US.
    most peo­ple in the world espe­cially Russia, China, India, most africa and the non-​​rich middle-​​easterns would love to live in the USA.
    Why, because it is great econ­omy, excel­lent
    health­care and sta­ble polit­i­cal sys­tem.
    Why is that: that’s because US eco­nomic sys­tem is built on top of mer­i­toc­racy: you get paid not based on your last name, or where you par­ents from but what you can do, who you can work with, what you can cre­ate.
    Why polit­i­cal sys­tem is so sta­ble: because it is not nearly is cor­rupt as in those nations, and there is self-​​regulating democ­racy.
    Why there is a self-​​regulating democ­racy? that’s because there is one fun­da­men­tal thread in US that does not exist any­where else in the world (includ­ing devel­oped European coun­tries). The thread is: there is large enough major­ity of peo­ple in US who believe that Government is to serve peo­ple and not the other way around. that’s why 2nd amend­ment is impor­tant, free speech is important/​etc.
    So as far as I am con­cerned, I belive that I rep­re­sent the major­ity of those peo­ple who
    want to come and live in US ( I was lucky enough
    that this became a pos­si­bil­ity for my and my fam­ily 14 years ago). And there is noth­ing wrong
    with US and US cor­po­ra­tion col­o­niz­ing those places.
    Western European coun­tries, with­out US econ­omy are
    not sus­tain­able, so they would not mind that either. And over­all, I believe the US pol­icy is
    to cre­ate fair and use­ful long-​​term trad­ing part­ners whose eco­nom­ics are based on the same prin­ci­ples as US (mer­i­toc­racy)… and that is a great goal to have.
    I the mean time, there are ene­mies who do not want this to hap­pen, because they know they can­not
    trade fairly… instead they want to have a grip on the nat­ural resources and peo­ple, so they use reli­gion and jeal­ousy of US’s eco­nomic suc­cess to insight resis­tance, but even­tu­ally they will loose
    .
    So yes, Iran will be just the next step,
    then Syria, then we will wait till Saudies reform, and if not we will help, and then after the Saudies the money sup­ply to the enemy will stop, and the rest will be easier.

    Reply
  4. Tibia money says:
    August 9, 2008 at 12:53 am

    If you died you were reset to level 1. As there were only few mon­sters around and Tibia money had a very tough lev­el­ing sys­tem, play­ers felt lik­ing high lev­els when they had gained level 8 or 9.

    Reply
  5. kamas says:
    August 18, 2008 at 2:27 am

    Speak our story now, per­haps our story was very com­mon, I met her in the last year, at that time we only said a few words, at that time she was buy the kamas now, we changed our tele­phone each other, from then on

    Reply
  6. buy dofus kamas says:
    August 18, 2008 at 2:32 am

    I thought that if I love her I could like her all things, so in order let her in the game felt happy, I spend many money to buy dofus kamas for her.

    Reply
  7. Andrew Ramsey says:
    April 23, 2009 at 2:43 pm

    Good morn­ing. This coun­try has come to feel the same when Congress is in ses­sion as when the baby gets hold of a ham­mer.
    I am from Bosnia and know bad English, tell me right I wrote the fol­low­ing sen­tence: pay­day “The air­line flight infor­ma­tion pro­vided by.“
    Best regards :P , Maxwell.

    Reply

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