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Home » Trimble on the Case » Oil Free by 2050

Oil Free by 2050

Hornet-over-oil-wells.jpg

The US mil­i­tary needs oil — about 300,000 bar­rels a day — to fight.

Lots of oil comes from the same places where the mil­i­tary actu­ally is fight­ing today, or may be fight­ing some­time in the not so dis­tant future. (Hello, Iran?)

Oh, the irony!

It should come as no sur­prise then that the Department of Defense is giv­ing very seri­ous thought to oil inde­pen­dence. The notion is that the nation — and par­tic­u­larly the mil­i­tary — must have assured access to energy, and oil isn’t such a safe bet any more.

Champions of this con­cept are known to include John Young, DOD’s direc­tor for Defense Research and Engineering; and Ron Sega, under­sec­re­tary of the Air Force and — on Capitol Hill — New York Republican Representative Steve Israel and Maryland Republican Representative Roscoe Bartlett.

There’s been some press about a highly-​​touted Air Force exper­i­ment using a syn­then­tic base fuel (derived from nat­ural gas pumped in from Oklahoma) to power one of the B-52’s eight engines.

But that’s just kid-​​stuff, really.

It’s very clear that a much broader vision exists within DOD to really go … all .. the … way, and fast.

The vision can be found in this master’s the­sis by Air Force Lt Col Michael J. Hornitschek, who orig­i­nally pub­lished the doc­u­ment for the Air University’s Center for Strategy and Technology. It has since been repub­lished in the Air Force Journal of Logistics. It’s a the­sis, but it often reads like a very good Popular Science arti­cle.

Here’s a quick excerpt that explains the vision:

“A directed-​​energy based, highly-​​automated force, capa­ble of gen­er­at­ing a major­ity of its own power in a dis­trib­uted fash­ion from local and envi­ron­men­tal sources, could the­o­ret­i­cally pro­vide that future. The poten­tial effi­ciency, envi­ron­men­tal ubiq­uity, uni­ver­sal­ity and con­vert­ibil­ity from one form to another of this con­fig­u­ra­tion, make strong argu­ments that the force of 2050 can be pow­ered almost exclu­sively by elec­tric­ity and hydrogen.

“Setting aside con­ven­tional par­a­digms allows one to imag­ine a con­cep­tual 2050 force. All navy ships might employ nuclear-​​powered direct-​​electric dri­ves, light­weight nano­engi­neered hulls, and directed energy arma­ment. All army and marine corps future com­bat sys­tem land vehi­cles (many of which are unmanned) are designed for mod­u­lar upgrades with plug-​​in elec­tric hybrid or fuel-​​cell power, light­weight car­bon nanotube-​​based armor and directed energy weaponry. Today’s vul­ner­a­ble tanker fuel trucks are replaced with smaller hybrid or fuel-​​cell pow­ered trucks car­ry­ing sta­ble, solid hydrate-​​based hydro­gen bat­ter­ies or com­bat safety-​​engineered liq­uid hydro­gen con­tain­ers. Individual sol­diers are out­fit­ted with pocket hydro­gen fuel cells to power 10–15 onboard elec­tric sys­tems. Virtually all com­bat fighter air­craft are small, unmanned or single-​​seat, and pow­ered by liq­uid or even nano-​​engineered solid hydrogen-​​based fuels. Ultra-​​efficient air­craft designs elim­i­nate the need for tanker air­craft. All imagery (sic), sur­veil­lance and recon­nais­sance (ISR) plat­forms are either space-​​based or unmanned vehi­cles, orbit­ing for weeks at a time exclu­sively on solar-​​generated power while peer­ing through weather from above.”

– Stephen Trimble

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February 28th, 2007 | Trimble on the Case | 352042 Comments »http://defensetech.org/2007/02/28/oil-free-by-2050/Oil+Free+by+20502007-02-28+12%3A40%3A43murdoc You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

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  1. Foreign.Boy says:
    February 28, 2007 at 9:34 am

    I hope I’m wrong, but doesn’t this sound a lot like the army’s hope to have armour for the M1A2 that was lighter but as tough so fuel wouldn’t be such an issue?
    Mostly hop­ing on tech­nol­ogy that hasn’t been devel­oped or released yet. Ah well, 40 years is a long way away anyways.

    Reply
  2. Stephen Trimble says:
    February 28, 2007 at 1:39 pm

    Forty years isn’t so long a time in the weapons busi­ness. It means you’re talk­ing about the next gen­er­a­tion of ships, tanks and planes that start appear­ing after 2020. As the author notes, those elec­tric and hydro­gen power are being fac­tored into the plans for many of those designs. It may seem far-​​fetched today to con­ceive of an oil-​​free fleet, but it can hap­pen. Consider when Winston Churchill, as head of the Royal Navy, switched British war­ships from coal to oil in World War I. That may seem quaint today, but it really was a change of com­pa­ra­ble magnitude.

    Reply
  3. Stephen Trimble says:
    February 28, 2007 at 1:40 pm

    In the com­ment below, by “author” I meant Hornitschek, not myself.

    Reply
  4. JB says:
    February 28, 2007 at 1:53 pm

    What’s with “imagery (sic)” in the quote above? I have trou­ble tak­ing a mil­i­tary blog seri­ously if they’re unfa­mil­iar with that word …

    Reply
  5. Mark S. says:
    February 28, 2007 at 2:30 pm

    For JB:
    the (sic) could be nec­es­sary because the “I” of ISR most often stands for intel­li­gence, not imagery.
    cheers,
    Mark S.

    Reply
  6. Andres says:
    February 28, 2007 at 3:08 pm

    It is all very well to wish for a non-​​dependency on oil by 2050, but lets face it, we prob­a­bly will be just as depen­dent on oil then as we are now. One of the options we have is bat­ter­ies, but to develop bet­ter ones will take a long time. Li-​​on bat­ter­ies are only 3–4 times more pow­er­ful than they were 20 years ago, and if you want to power a tank, even if you have light­weight nano-​​materials for armour, you will need some­thing a lot bet­ter. Fuel cells are another choice, but where will you get the hydro­gen based fuel for them? Electrolysis, then your back on oil-​​dependency. Ethanol pro­duc­tion from crops and you will see food prices go up out­ra­geously, coz of the amount needed to sup­port the US mil­i­tary alone. Nuclear power is all well for the big stuff, but even then, you make enough big ships with such a pow­er­plant and you are bound to have a few errors, and with nuclear tech, you do NOT want errors.
    It will take some­thing directly out of star trek to draw the depen­dency away from oil to sup­port an estab­lish­ment as big the US military.

    Reply
  7. moonbiter says:
    February 28, 2007 at 4:14 pm

    This “vision” sounds an awful lot like wish­ful think­ing. Why didn’t he just give the Marines Starship Troopers-​​style bat­tle suits and per­sonal nuke launch­ers to as well?
    Plus a lot of it doesn’t make sense. Directed-​​energy arma­ment on Navy ships? What, they aren’t going to be attack­ing any­thing over the hori­zon any more?

    Reply
  8. Erick Smith says:
    February 28, 2007 at 5:20 pm

    By energy weapons, keep in mind this could include rail guns, etc, which could still be fired “over the hori­zon” and yet rely only on elec­tric­ity for propul­sion.
    Also, most “over the hori­zon” engage­ments are han­dled by air­craft or mis­siles these days, so weapons sys­tems on ships which fire con­ven­tional pro­jec­tiles are mostly defen­sive and don’t need over the hori­zon capa­bil­ity. The age of direct bom­bard­ment by big guns is long over.

    Reply
  9. Macaca says:
    February 28, 2007 at 6:13 pm

    Notice this “Today’s vul­ner­a­ble tanker fuel trucks are replaced with smaller hybrid or fuel-​​cell pow­ered trucks car­ry­ing sta­ble, solid hydrate-​​based hydro­gen bat­ter­ies or com­bat safety-​​engineered liq­uid hydro­gen con­tain­ers. “
    Uhm, the fuel cells look okay, but im not sure about liq­uid hydro­gen tankers. Isnt that high-​​pressure stuff and very volatile, even worse then ordi­nary fuel? (eg: vir­tu­aly a big red sign that says ‘machine-​​gun this’)
    Nice idea any­way, but 2050? It’s offi­cial science-​​fiction :)

    Reply
  10. compton says:
    March 1, 2007 at 9:08 am

    http://​www​.weirdasianews​.com/​2​0​0​7​/​0​2​/​2​4​/​p​e​e​-​p​o​w​e​r​e​d​-​b​a​t​t​e​ry/
    I can see it already. A camel­bak on you back and a trick­lepack on you thigh. Unstoppable.

    Reply
  11. Beuvih says:
    March 1, 2007 at 9:31 am

    Wouldn’t it be bet­ter to work toward not to have have a Military instead of this ? Should be able to do that before 2050 ?

    Reply
  12. AirSix says:
    March 1, 2007 at 9:55 am

    …by the way, would that be Roscoe Bartlett from Maryland, the congressman/​physicist (and EMP mono­ma­niac)? ‘Cause Dan Bartlett, we don’t know who is, nuless it’s the guy who used to work in the White House.

    Reply
  13. Stephen Trimble says:
    March 1, 2007 at 10:46 am

    It’s Roscoe, not Dan. My (embarass­ing) bad.

    Reply
  14. - says:
    March 2, 2007 at 3:35 am

    Perhaps the develp­ment and deploy­ment of fusion based tech­nolo­gies, or tech­nolo­gies that access energy directly from the active vac­uum will become a reality.

    Reply
  15. Brian says:
    March 2, 2007 at 1:39 pm

    Would it be bet­ter to not have a mil­i­tary by 2050? That’s a great idea!!! You go first. Disband your mil­i­tary. Then I’ll dis­band mine. Trust me.

    Reply
  16. Gerard Panza says:
    August 3, 2008 at 8:48 pm

    The Truth About Crude Oil
    First Crude Oil is NOT from Dino the Dinosaur or his broth­ers. Logically speak­ing if the earth was cov­ered with a dense primeval for­est and there was a Dinosaur liv­ing in every five square mile area on the face of the earth, and all this was com­pressed into a sub sur­face space for tens of thou­sands of years, and pro­duced a pool of Crude Oil, it WOULD ONLY FEED the needs of this world for the PAST twenty years, so WHAT FUELED the Industrial Age for the first EIGHTY YEARS???????????????????????????
    Think about what is stated above! Science states that oil is the by prod­uct of the earths ENGINE as it rotates cre­at­ing GRAVITY and super heat­ing rock for­ma­tions, that through this process release oil and this oil flows into cav­i­ties within the earth.
    Now with this said, what is the rea­son for the exces­sive spike in Crude and Natural Gas prices? GREED.
    In the 60

    Reply
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