We at DefenseTech recognize that the conflict in Iraq is, to say the least, a controversial subject for our readers and we’re not endorsing the following view other than to say that it comes from a very reliable source and is at least a small window into the current situation from someone other than a Pentagon appointed spokesman.
No matter how skeptical you are on Americas struggle in Iraq, its at least worth a read to see an under-reported aspect of the ongoing surge and its effect on the insurgency (no matter whos doing the shooting)…
I must apologize for the tardiness of my update. As you may know I have been kept pretty busy since my return from R&R. I was one of the early birds so now most of the team is on R&R along with some who are away on TDY; so the few of us back here have to cover down on multiple areas.
Over the past month we have seen and experienced a lot. As military professionals we are seeing the benefits of the President’s surge, our tactical and operational progress over the month has been really impressive. Between U.S. ground forces and the Iraqi Security Forces (Army and National Police) we have been uncovering hundreds of insurgent (Al Qaeda and Jaish al Mahdi — aka JAM) caches and detecting far more IEDs before they explode. Caches so far this year are over 3,800. I think that is triple last year’s.
Al Qaeda has totally lost the support of Iraq’s Sunni Arabs. The fanatics over-played their hand when they started murdering popular sheiks, kidnapping tribal women for forced marriages, and even tried outlawing smoking. The locals in Al Anbar Province are taking their communities back and going after the terrorists themselves. Attacks on Coalition Forces out in what once used to be the Wild Wild West are down dramatically; we used to see 50 to 60 attacks a day but now they’re down to less than one a day. To the point that the Marine commander out west has asked for permission to lighten his soldiers’ and Marines’ load by having them only wear the flack jacket/vest without the side plates and upper arm Kevlar.
Up in Diyala the provincial capital is completely different than it was over a month ago. The soldiers of the two Brigade Combat Teams (1st CAV and 2nd ID) have secured the city. The insurgents are now wandering around the countryside — easier to pick up with infrared/heat sensors on our UAVs and air weapons teams (attack helos). They try to plant IEDs at night thinking they are safe and sound, then out of nowhere they are taken out by a Hellfire missile and it’s all caught on tape too. It’s our own reality TV show call “IED Planters;” its a great show when one has night duty; dial in the UAV lead, cook some popcorn, grab a soda, sit back, relax and watch the fun — all live!
The insurgents are still out there, but they are finding it harder and harder to find support. We are no longer playing “whack-a-mole.” Since we have a larger number of troops over here we are now able to clear out the insurgents and then hold on to our gains; then turn it over to the Iraqi Security Forces, Army, National Police and local Police.
That is what we did in Baqubah (an Al Qaeda and JAM infested town). Once it was cleared we put a tank, Bradley or Striker on just about every corner and told the people to stay inside after dark. If they were out and about at night — where they shouldn’t be — they were ‘lit up.’ The people appreciated it because the insurgent rats’ nest was cleared out.
As if that is not enough to demonstrate that we are making serious inroads and a turn for the better, winning the counterinsurgency (COIN) war, we are taking out the insurgents’ leaders faster than they can replace them. All over Iraq our Special Forces and Iraqi Special Operation Forces are taking out insurgent cell leaders in surgical strikes and raids (most effective), as are the conventional American and Iraqi units — killing or capturing ringleaders. How are we doing it? We’re doing it the old fashion way, through human intelligence (HUMINT). The Iraqi people are turning them in to us and not allowing them any sanctuary — they are denying them the ability to “swim through the sea of the people.” (Mao’s old Communist saying). And because our soldiers are out there interacting with the local populace. The people are not afraid to come up to our troops and tell them what is going on in their neighborhood. It’s still bad out there, but it is definitely improving.
The first few weeks of July we saw a heavy increase in rocket and mortar attacks. They were up to their same old tricks of firing off a few rounds then scooting — running off. They also fire from built up housing areas, next to schools and mosques too, because they know that we will not shoot counter battery fire against them for the sake of injuring innocent civilians and causing undue collateral damage. All the while they could care less.
They have been lucky at times and we have suffered some casualties.
Fortunately the Iraqi people are getting tired of them and turning on them. We had an Iraqi man show up at one of our local neighborhood security outposts saying that he knew where some ‘terrorists’ were planning to launch some rockets at the ‘CF and IZ’ (Coalition Forces and the International Zone). He volunteered to show our troops where they were located. He took a platoon of infantry over to a school yard where six Katyusha rockets were rigged and ready for firing. By the way, the insurgents were still there guarding the site resulting in a pretty good snatch. We tried to give the man reward money for turning the insurgents in, but he refused to take anything. He told our troops “it is my responsibility, you come here to free us and protect us; it is the least thing I can do.” Incidentally, most of the rockets and mortar rounds that are being shot at us, or that we are capturing, are made in the good ole Peoples Republic of China. Dji vu, remind you of another foreign insurgent war in Southeast Asia a few years back? This begs the Question — Are the Chinese really our friends? They claim they don’t sell arms and equipment to any country that passes them on.
Unfortunately we know they are coming in from Iran and Iran is also training insurgents in their country to use the rockets and mortars. One more reason Joe Lieberman is right on Iran. By the way, old ‘Mookie’ (Muqtada al-Sadr) has fled back to Iran with his tail between his legs (again) trailed by his senior cronies. Things are just getting too hot for them over here.The Iraqi forces are increasingly carrying the fight to the insurgent militias. A National Police unit down in An Nasiriyah came under attack by Jaish al Mahdi (JAM) Army elements who are accustomed to moving about freely and intimidating the police. However, the NP unit there supported by a small U.S. advisory team fought off the insurgents. Instead of a cakewalk, the goons hit a wall and were in turn hammered with some heavy air strikes — Specter (C130 Gunship) laid them to waste. The Iraqi police counter-attacked along with a couple of Iraqi Army battalions and cleared the town of insurgents.
Up north in Mosul, Iraqi Army and National Police units have been sticking it to the enemy through a series of tough combat engagements, and netting som e massive arms caches seized from the insurgents. In Kirkuk a gruesome car bomb went off in town and the Iraqi police reacted quickly and stopped several other car bombs on the outskirts of town from reaching their intended targets.
These recent successes are beginning to show gains on the military aspect of this war. Unfortunately all the military successes are offset by the inaction of the Iraqi Parliament. This is what the press and members of congress who want us out (now) focus on. Creating a stable, functioning and democratic government takes time. Less we forget, it took us eleven years before we had agreed upon and signed the Constitution of the United States. And we had a head start on freedom.
July was a great month for the Iraqi National Soccer team. They played a spectacular game against South Korea in the Semi-finals and defeated them in a penalty kick shoot out. That evening many Iraqis went out and celebrated. Many of the restaurants and shops were open in the market areas. Unfortunately, Al Qaeda terrorists set off two big car bombs near an area where the people were celebrating their team’s victory. Everyone knew that it had to be a non-Iraqi insurgent. No Iraqi would conduct such a heinous act in a time of National pride. Fortunately the players were determined to give there best in the final game against none other than Saudi Arabia — where some of the foreign fighters come from. I watched the final Asian Cup game with the Iraqi officers in their Operations Center and with the interpreters. The Iraqis played their hearts out and dominated the second half, running circles around the Saudis. It was not only clear that they were the better team; they wanted it more than the Saudis. I think winning the Asian Cup gave all Iraqis hope that one day they will all be united and live in peace.
Earlier in the month we lost two more IGFC soldiers to assassinations. One was an intelligence officer, Staff Colonel Jawad, who was one of the original group of officers when the IGFC was established back in 2005. He was killed on his way to work. COL Jawad was very well liked by both the officers and the enlisted. Our nickname for him was Mr. Happy. He spoke pretty good English and always greeted you with a genuine friendly smile and was always in a good mood. The other soldier was a medic with the support battalion, whom I did not know. The reality of their passing was a reminder of the brutality of insurgent warfare and that we all are targets of the insurgents.
(Gouge: NC)
It is also interesting to note the lack of large scale spectacular attacks at a time when insurgents must know that U.S. politics are near a tipping point. Of course, there was that very large attack against the Yazidi minority a short while ago but that has got to be one of the weakest (politically, economically, militia-wise) in the country. Is that all the insurgents got? We still have a few weeks before the Petraeus report but I would have thought the bad guys would already be giving it all they have. The political progress announced today is also promising. Hopefully it is not all too little, too late.
As someone who has supported this war from the beginning (although not the military incompetence of Rumsfeld, Cheney, and Bush), I am heartened by this report. Thank God, Bush finally accepted Rumsfeld’s resignation; it’s been getting better ever since then.
How in the world could anyone in his right mind now advocate withdrawing troops just when it’s really turning around. There is no comparison to previous utterances of “turning a corner” to now, because the Sunnis have obviously decided that it was time to make deals rather than continue to shoot themselves in the foot.
It frightens me to hear the Left (usually Democrats) saying things like “America just wants to get out now” etc. How irresponsible is that? Just “get out” and let tens of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) of innocent people die, just like the Democrats did in 1975, to appease the irresponsible idiocy of some Americans who only care about themselves and temporary political gain. Self-centered irresponsibility seems to be the watchword for most Democrats today. It wasn’t always that way.
Rah, Rah, Hiss boom bah!
Go guys go!
Petraeus and McMasters are the most!
No success yet? Just move the post!
Let’s roll!
Let’s roll!
Let’s move the goal!
Blame the UN!
Blame Iran!
If you can’t stabilize, no one can!
–I thought I’d just add to the cute little cheerleader piece
So… if China is supplying weapons to the insurgents and China is lending money to the U.S.… then isn’t china doing what the U.S. Did during the Iraq-Iran wars (and others). How ironic.… and by ironic.. I mean.… something not ironic.
What’s is an acceptable US/Iraqi death ratio for commenters here? There’s much talk of “maybe hundreds of thousands of innocent people dying” if the US withdraws from Iraq (BTW, how many innocent Iraqis have already been killed compared to the run rate under Saddam?), but what is an acceptable US casualty level to prevent this hypothetical? Implications from Max appears to be another ~5,000 dead troops (say a 10 year pacification, gradual winding down of casualty rates) is acceptable vs say ~100,000-~200,000 potential dead Iraqi civilians, representing a ratio of ~1:20–40. Of course, this assumes US pacification will permanently remove the prospect of a civil war, which to me appears unlikely. Any other takers?
Who is to say that many of those civilians aren’t just dead insurgents with their rifles/RPGs removed?
my brother is in iraq for the third time with marine 1st recon and he says the same things as this article.
oh brother… what a bunch of malarkey
’Ground Truth’ is right, just like hamburger…
I’ve really just had it. Christian you are really just a paid government hack. rah rah rah, is right. dont you have any integrity? pathetic
hubris, so I guess you have a better source on the current situation in iraq than people actually there? Do you have a little iraqi boy as a pen pal? I have a good friend that’s also in iraq now and has been there twice before (pre– and post-invasion) who also says that the situation is improving. Notice the key word, _improving_. They’re not saying it’s disney world or that weve ‘won’, but that things are significantly improving.
The article was very good. Unfortunately, even here, I am seeing too many
I guess the 500 people killed recently is a lack of spectacular attacks. Local military success doesn’t win the war. We destroyed the VC during Tet and lost the political war in Vietnam. Bush has lost the political war in Iraq after the military won the battle. We have been there too long, the politicians can’t or won’t cross the goal line. In the meantime our military is fast approaching the “Hollow Force” of the late 70’s. I was there for that and I know what one looks like. I also know how hard it was to rebuild. We are in for a long struggle to rebuild the military.
The New York Times
BAGHDAD, Aug. 21
At the end of the day there are still troops there. They were sent there under false pretences. There is no coherent plan for even a partial withdrawl. I have never understood the purpose of going to Iraq when the business in Afghanistan was left unfinished. The poor attempt to say water under the bridge is a disgrace to the men and women who sacrificed life and limb for a lie perpetrated by the military, media, and politicians from the left and right.
My only real regret is that I cannot take the place of someone there. I know that I would only serve as a morale thief in whatever unit I was assigned to. So I can console my regret with the knowledge that I served in a greater capacity than the last two serving american presidents having been an Airborne Infantryman in a peacetime army.
Sorry for the rant, but my conscience was tickling my sense of honor.
OK, I’m sick of ‘the republicans being held up as if they are some great “war gods” who are trying make all right, while the democrats are trying to surrender and hurt America’ bullshit. Need I remind anyone here of the disgraceful treatment of wounded soldiers at Walter Reed? Who was in charge during that fiasco? Yup, the republicans.
And Vietnam? We left because we LOST. The “democrats didn’t make us lose” — Westmoreland was given everything he asked for — even things he didn’t ask for — and we LOST. For the same reason we’re losing now. When you’re fighting the G, if you ain’t winning, you’re losing, and boy are we losing. Who’s to blame? It sure as hell ain’t the grunts on the ground. Their commanders have failed them — all the way up the chain of command.
The death toll, for American soldiers, continues, and what is the strategy? Keep doing what we’re doing, and hope things improve?
It’s clear, from looking at casualty rates, that nothing is changing. We’ve already passed the number killed from last August (74 > 65)! And this is held up as improvement. We’ve lost 640 soldiers this year since February. Meanwhile over the same time last year (Feb — Aug) we lost “only” 400. Where’s the improvement?
And as for the self-centered irresponsibility? Sending more men out to die, while you sit fat and happy on vacation doesn’t strike me as being a responsible leader.
“Ground Truth” indeed. AP reports war-related deaths in Iraq have doubled from last year. If things keep improving at this rate we’ll run out of Iraqis to bring freedom and democracy to in about ten years.
That’d be… awkward.
Of course by then we’ll be having so much fun tussling with the Iranians people will look back on Iraq and wonder what all the fuss was about.
BTW, Sentinel, you should watch this video all the way through. It’ll give you some background on what *really* happened in Yezidiville.
Viewer Discretion Advised. Don’t say I didn’t warn you…
http://youtube.com/watch?v=BeWbZOl0Wyw&mode=related&search=
It is a truism of human character that those who believe they cannot win are in fact losers themselves. These losers bemoaning our efforts to save Iraq from Al-Quaeda remind me of the ten spies sent to survey the land of Canaan ahead of the army of Israel. They came back completely convinced that they could not win and therefore must return to Egypt. The Bible puts it like this: “And there we saw the giants, the sons of Anak, which come of the giants: and we were in our own sight as grasshoppers, and so we were in their sight” (Numbers 13:33). Take note of the wording: “we were in our own sight as grasshoppers and so we were in their sight.” In other words, they believed themselves to be losers, and so their enemies were also convinced of the same. These losers crying “Get out now” are losers in their own sight, and so Al-Quaeda is heartened, knowing that all they have to do is wait until America’s losers win the day, just like in 1975.
Jeff — You hit the nail on the head.
AQOne — You
I get the strong impression that the US military is currently overextended in Iraq, and will have no choice but to draw down to pre-surge levels by early 2008.
murc at August 28, 2007 12:31 AM
There’s no point is looking at the freedoms, or quality of life, or new police stations, or schools, or power plants, or water treatment facilities, or anything else…because nothing else can grab those headlines on CNN like that beautiful US death toll.
WTF!?! Don’t look at all those police stations and markets being blown up, cause that just distracts from the this new coat of paint we put on this building.
As for your “beautiful death toll” — yeah, I can see how you get a thrill in your pants writing that — brothers of mine ain’t coming back, and you spew about “beautiful death tolls“
And as for “fixing” Walter Reed — it was under the republicans that the world class Army flagship hospital broke, and it wasn’t until the voters held the government to the fire — again, a whitehouse, senate, and house controlled by the republicans — that it got fixed.
But don’t let that disturb your thoughts. It’s easy to rah-rah over here about all the “wonderful” things that aren’t being reported by the “left-dominated media”.
I understand Disney just opened a new theme park just outside Ba’qubah…but you didn’t hear anything about it in the news!!! Why? Because I just made it up — just like your fairytale about the new “…the freedoms, or quality of life, or new police stations, or schools, or power plants, or water treatment facilities…”
This guy wonders whether China is a friend of the US because insurgents are using weapons manufactured by one of the world’s #2 arms manufacturers ?
The last M4 I saw on TV was in the hands of a Hezbollah member in Lebanon. Pretty much every martyr poster I’ve seen out of that region has featured a terrorist posing with an M16.
Who is the US a friend of in that region when so many terrorists there are also using easily obtainable weapons again manufactured by another of the world’s leading manufacturers ?
Really don’t have to work that brain much when writing the fluff pieces do you.
Posted by: murc at August 28, 2007 12:31 AM
“BTW, I think it
Woops. FAS says:
“U.S. weapons sales for 2001 accounted for 45.8% of all registered international arms deliveries. This was roughly than 2.5 times the value of exports by the second (United Kingdom) and third (Russia) largest exporters, 9.7 times the level of exports registered by France, and 19 times the level of exports registered by China. ”
From someone who was there:
“Winston S. Churchill to David Lloyd George (Churchill papers: 17/27) 1 September 1922
I am deeply concerned about Iraq. The task you have given me is becoming really impossible. Our forces are reduced now to very slender proportions. The Turkish menace has got worse; Feisal is playing the fool, if not the knave; his incompetent Arab officials are disturbing some of the provinces and failing to collect the revenue; we overpaid
> Trying to work out the prevelence of Chinese
> weaponary in the world by the dollar value
> of its exports is a red herring,
No, talking about it at all is a red herring.
> how many AK47s do you think you could buy for
> the price of one F-15?
> Posted by: FOARP at August 28, 2007 07:25 AM
Who cares if nobody’s in the market for an F-15 ?
Who cares if China is ranked #2 or #20 in the world in small arms and ordinance production ?
The premise was posed that in a warzone, the non-state-based combatants using arms manufactured by one of the major producers of arms implies that nation is complicit.
This is either BS or it isn’t. It is.
The insurgent groups in Iraq have created a market for weapons and skills. That market will be supplied. Finding Chinese made weapons there is as mysterious as finding Iranian-made garage door openers used in IED triggers.
If the nation of origin of these items concerns anyone then supply them with made-in-the-USA goods. Or encourage another nation to supply superior products at lower prices. Otherwise they’re going to use what’s available and what suits their purpose. As per every economics book ever written.
And this I have to post on a blog where most of the stories are about the arms industry. Awesome.
1. Anecdotes aren’t data. It’s great that this unnamed correspondent is seeing so much success. But he’s only seeing one part of the picture. I’m sure he’s telling the truth, but he’s not telling — because he doesn’t know it — the whole truth. Overall, things aren’t good. (For example, almost none of the Brookings metrics have improved. Civilian deaths, Coalition deaths, infrastructure, etc.)
2. Even if the article were representative of the general picture, it doesn’t prove anything. The surge is temporary. It cannot be maintained indefinitely — probably not much beyond spring 08. It wouldn’t be surprising if a minor increase in troop strength was producing some improvements, but the aim of the surge was not simply to score some short-term successes, but to provide a breathing space in which to achieve a political solution. This has not happened. And without it, when the surge ends — which it will, soon — the situation will not have been improved at all.
Here, for example, is the account of another soldier in Diyala, who has a completely different view of things.
http://armyofdude.blogspot.com/2007/08/i-can-taste-it.html
“If the media got anything right, it was that the surge failed. The idea, as birthed in a bloody, mucous-y blob of counter production by General Petreaus, is quite simple on paper, impossible to execute in a meddling reality…General Petraeus must be given accolades for his selflessness. A weaker man would have trembled at the arduous sight of forms authorizing a surge and extension. Thanks to his steadfast character, I
The surge per se is doing well in many ways. However, the wear on the military limits how long we can keep it up, and the Maliki government is not competent at bringing sects together. We can hope for the best, but those factors must be satisfied somehow.
You’ve got your WH talking points down pat.