One of the stories thats been intriguing the heck out of me over the past couple of weeks is that Israeli air strike into Syria.
Just today, the most solid facts of the strike have leaked out, but Bush administration officials are still publicly mum on the aerial attack that reportedly took out a nascent nuke capability deep in northern Syria.
The reports show that a North Korean ship docked at a Syrian port just a few days before the strike loaded with a shipment of cement (ya, right…). Heres what the reports are saying:
Unlike its destruction of an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981, Israel made no announcement of the recent raid and imposed strict censorship on reporting by the Israeli media. Syria made only muted protests, and Arab leaders have remained silent. As a result, a daring and apparently successful attack to eliminate a potential nuclear threat has been shrouded in mystery.
“There is no question it was a major raid. It was an extremely important target,” said Bruce Riedel, a former intelligence officer at Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy. “It came at a time the Israelis were very concerned about war with Syria and wanted to dampen down the prospects of war. The decision was taken despite their concerns it could produce a war. That decision reflects how important this target was to Israeli military planners.”
Israel has long known about Syria’s interest in chemical and even biological weapons, but “if Syria decided to go beyond that, Israel would think that was a real red line,” Riedel said.
And something else…
Some current and former American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because information about the raid remained classified, said they believed that the site was involved in Syrias missile program. They said that Israeli intelligence officials believed that they had evidence that the activity at the site involved North Korean engineers believed to work in the nuclear program.
So far, several current and former American officials who have been involved in evaluating the Israeli claims say they are not yet convinced of a nuclear connection. Yet the enormous secrecy around the findings, both here and in Israel, suggests that the activity that prompted the Israeli attack involved more than a run-of-the-mill missile transaction, one official said, noting that the Israelis took considerable risks in carrying out the attack.
Actually, I also wonder whether the Syrians would take such a huge risk, though pressure from their Iranian task masters could have outweighed the suicidal nature of this potential program.
But whats most intriguing about the strike is what it says about Syrias air defense system. Some claim that the Syrians have one of the most advanced SAM and radar-tracking architectures manufactured in Russia the same one used to protect Tehran called the Pantsyr. Apparently the unstealthy F-15I Israeli aircraft were able to make it into Syria without being shot out of the sky, and some reports indicate that they snuck their way out through Turkey either with permission or without.
Ive heard that the jamming of the Syrian air defenses was so severe that it shut down civilian comms inside Lebanon for the better part of a day. Pretty impressive; and that could be why Iran has been largely silent on the matter it would tip their hand that they are as vulnerable as the Syrians.
From our partners over at Stratfor:
Likely spooked by the IAF’s intentions behind the overflight and with only a feeble diplomatic defense against Israel, the Syrians are being extremely cautious not to provoke a military confrontation with the Jewish state. Syria has even refrained thus far from massing troops along the border in response to Israel’s military buildup in the Golan Heights, revealing that Damascus lacks the confidence and capability to risk a fight at this stage.
Debka has a good analysis of the air defense angle.
Western intelligence circles stress that information on Russian missile consignments to Syria or Iran is vital to any US calculation of whether to attack Iran over its nuclear program. They assume that the absolute jamming immunity which the Russian manufactures promised for the improved Pantsyr missiles was immobilized by superior electronic capabilities exercised by the jets before they were forced to leave.
Syria took delivery in mid-August of 10 batteries of sophisticated Russian Pantsyr-S1E Air Defense Missile fire control systems with advanced radar, those sources report. They have just been installed in Syria.
Understanding that the Pantsyr-S1E had failed in its mission to bring down trespassing aircraft, Moscow hastened Thursday, Sept 6, to officially deny selling these systems to Syria or Iran and called on Israel to respect international law. This was diplomatic-speak for a warning against attacking the Russian-made missiles batteries stations where Russian instructors are working alongside Syrian teams.
Western intelligence circles maintain that it is vital for the US and Israel to establish the location and gauge the effectiveness of Pantsyr-S1E air defenses in Syrian and Iranian hands, as well as discovering how many each received…
…The courage, daring and operational skills of the air crews must have been exceptional. They would have needed to spend enough time in hostile Syrian air space to execute several passes at varying altitudes under fire in order to test the Pantsyr-S1E responses. Their success demonstrated to Damascus and Tehran that their expensive new Russian anti-air system leaves them vulnerable.
Weve clearly not heard the last of this story. As more details trickle out and as Iran possibly ramps up its condemnation of the attack when its president arrives at the U.N. next week, Defense Tech will continue to report the more intriguing angles of what could be the beginning of a much wider confrontation.
Arms Control Wonk has a good history of proliferation coverage and some different angles on this topic (calling BS on it being a nuke issue basically):
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1646/ah-they-were-scuds
Does anyone else want to see a Battle Royale of world leaders???? Just imagine Bush and Cheney (with shotgun) against Azhebajan (or however you spell his freaking name)and company. My money is on Cheney with the 12 guage, obviously Russian weapons aren’t that great!
Camels have shat.
congrats to Israel, I like how they handle the nuke situations.
Pantsyr-S1 is a truck-mounted defence system with a heritage derived from the Tunguska-M1 — it’s inteded for engaging low-flying aircraft, cruise missiles, PGMs, etc. It’s got nothing to do with some sort of over-arching air defence architecture, and indeed, AFAIK, hasn’t even been delivered to them yet.
This only proves that contrary to Hollywood & WWE wrestling,countries who make pre-emptive strikes(otherwise known as sneak attacks) wins.It also proves how well brand spanking new F-16 Sufas(are you listening U.S. Air Force?) work.Of course someone will comment how much better they would have done if they had F-22s & UAVs doing this attack.
Israel showed the world that she is still very lethal, and will do anything to make sure she isn’t nuked. The US could learn a few from this.
Syria should have attacked the Israeli nuke program a long time ago. Good thing the Israeli attack was a failure. Syria IS NOT trying to build a nuke. I am hoping Syria will attack Israel for payback.
“I am hoping Syria will attack Israel for payback.“
I hope so too, because that will be then end of Syria.
“I am hoping Syria will attack Israel for payback.“
I hope so too, because that will be the end of Syria.
Hey frankie,
Why would you want to see “the end of Syria”? Is it a race thing? You just hate those Arabs? Syria has a right to defend itself against Israeli aggression.
Personally i think that Israel did what they should.
Since every Arab nation hates them, it’s better to make sure that they get scared, and blown.
Since personally i would rather have a pissed off Syria without nukes, than a very peaceful one with them (the peaceful thing would have to be a total lie, since if they ever got them, they would surely hit Israel with them).
And i hope that Iran learns something from this, since if they don’t stop their nuclear program, the next target will be them, and i’m pretty sure it wouldn’t be just Israel, nor would they get such little stuff blown off.
Israel FTW.
Roy
Am pretty sure from all I have seen it was F-15I a modified F-15E.
http://www.israeli-weapons.com/weapons/aircraft/f-15i/F-15I.html
And for the comparison to F-22 doesn’t work in this case. You could probably out race most people with a Ford Taurus even those many of the Corvette guys who don’t know how to race. Sure Big deal. But when you get into it with a another racer or run up on some capable drivers with Jacked up cars then you lose. And in the the real world of War that bet is paid in American Blood, Roy.
We don’t ever ever want parity with our enemies, WW2 we learned that lesson hard. Since then we have only accepted OVERMATCH and that is why we rule the skys. I think it a good thing we have not lost a single air/air engagement since what mid 60’s?
I hope the mullahs in Teheran are taking serious notice of the goings on in Syrian Desert. Like it or not, this “event” (or “non-event”) should be be considered as a dress-reheral for bigger things to come (Natanz, et al)
Whoa there, speculation overdrive…
This whole thing is turning into a Tom Clany fantasy.
“Yes, they really did have nukes! And we destroyed them in a single strike! Yay!“
– all in the complete absence of any evidence, while the rest of the world fails to find any credibility in the alleged North Korean/Syrian nukes.
Put this this way: if something like this happened in Iraq, wouldn’t you want just a little more than a claim from an anonymous source? or are your standards of evidence for claims of WMD really that low?
Iran, here we come…
Evidence doesn’t matter to anybody here, just Anti-Arab bigotry.
So if the Israelis or the US show the evidence that Spec Ops took nuclear material with North KOrean Markers in it from syria then that is what you want? Maybe they will, hopefully if they have it they will share it so they take some pressure off themeslves but that means they have to admit to running troops and jets through syria and spying and all that, syria and israel are a state of war but perception matters
super interesting. just speculating here, but the fact that Syria isn’t saying much after they just got BOMBED BY A FOREIGN COUNTRY probably means something… like, for example, they had something more exotic than cement in that nork ship.
oh, and for god’s sake don’t go around quoting the UK Times. that paper literally makes stuff up, probably just to start internet buzz.
At best: the story that was leaked is probably true. Worst: it was a good old fashioned capability check that provided very useful information that one could consider bad PR for future sales to other middle-east customers who may or may not have the TOR M1/Pantsir/S300 or whatever system in place to counter perceived advisary air dominance. You would only want to put good air defense systems around things that have some target value.
Obviously, Syria would have launched a formal diplomatic protest or would have allowed press access if the Israeli action caused damage to facilities or material the Syrians wouldn’t have cared to expose.Intelligence isn’t courtroom evidence, nor will it ever be.
If these were materials that would augment a nuclear capability, Israel had determined Syria crossed a line and destroyed it.Certainly, the US was notified before the strike, or, provided additional intel in support of the raid.
Not sure how that figures into anti-Arab bigotry, mentioned by the previous poster.
Nations have a legitimate right to their self-defense and if Syria is developing a nuclear capability, Israel will act. Why is that suprising? If Syria or the rest of the Arab world had the capability at any time in Israel’s history, they themselves would have stopped Israel from obtaining the thermonuclear advantage.
Does anyone believe the IAEA will investigate what the Syrians and N Koreans were up to?
Some have wondered why the Syrian Air Defense System did not detect the Israeli F15 & F16 aircraft. Occam’s razor says the strike was by American B2 bombers. You heard it here first!
BRAVO! This shows Syria’s and Tehran’s vunerability and the U.S. / Israeli ECM capability.
Molon Labe
Netanyahu’s assistant claims that when the full story leaks out, it will “stun the world”.
1. What would it take to stun you?
2. Define (estimate) the range of possibilities Israel might describe as “stunning”.
The center of my estimated bellcurve sits close to “assembled, untested, high energy device”.
Debka’s full of crap. The UAE was the first customer of the Pantsyr-S1E, and delivery for them hasn’t even taken place, yet we’re expected to believe that Syria and Iran both already have these systems in place? These are basic facts, for god’s sake. *The system hasn’t even finished trials*.
Could the Israeli Air Force similarly avoid detection by the Saudi Arabian air defenses?