Well, the story of the Israeli incursion into Syria is beginning to get some granularity. It now appears that Israeli commandos may have been involved as well. What a totally gutsy move. And, if true, it also shows that Israel took the target seriously enough to send in ground forces.
Our friends at Stratfor passed this along to us synthesizing the latest information threads:
Another leak appeared via the Sunday Times, this time with enough granularity to consider it a genuine leak. According to that report, the operation was carried out by Israeli commandos supported by Israeli aircraft, under the direct management of Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak. It had been planned since June, just after Barak took office, and had been approved by the United States after some hesitation. The target was in fact nuclear “material” provided by North Korea, according to that leak.
All of this makes perfect sense, save one thing. Why the secrecy? If the Syrians have nuclear facilities, the Israelis should be delighted to make it public. Frankly, so should the United States, since the Bush administration has always argued that nuclear proliferation to rogue states, including Syria, is one of the key problems in the world. The Syrians should be spinning the story like crazy as well, denying the nuclear program but screaming about unprovoked Israeli-U.S. aggression. The silence from one or two parties makes sense. The silence from all parties makes little sense.
Looked at differently, Israel and the United States both have gone out of their way to draw attention to the fact that a highly significant military operation took place in Northern Syria, and compounded the attention by making no attempt to provide a plausible cover story. They have done everything possible to draw attention to the affair without revealing what the affair was about. Israel and the United States have a lot of ways to minimize the importance of the operation. By the way they have handled it, however, each has chosen to maximize its importance.
Whoever they are keeping the secret from, it is not the Syrians. They know precisely what was attacked and why. The secret is not being kept from the Iranians either. The Syrians talk to them all the time. It is hard to imagine any government of importance and involvement that has not been briefed by someone. And by now, the public perception has been shaped as well. So, why the dramatic secrecy designed to draw everyone’s attention to the secret and the leaks that seem to explain it?
Let us assume that the Sunday Times report is correct. According to the Times, Barak focused on the material as soon as he became defense minister in June. That would mean the material had reached Syria prior to that date. Obviously, the material was not a bomb, or Israel would not have waited until September to act. So it was, at most, some precursor nuclear material or equipment.
However, an intervening event occurred this summer that should be factored in here. North Korea publicly shifted its position on its nuclear program, agreeing to abandon it and allow inspections of its facilities. It also was asked to provide information on the countries it sold any nuclear technology to, though North Korea has publicly denied any proliferation. This was, in the context of the six-party negotiations surrounding North Korea, a major breakthrough.
Any agreement with North Korea is, by definition, unstable. North Korea many times has backed off of agreements that seemed cast in stone. In particular, North Korea wants to be seen as a significant power and treated with all due respect. It does not intend to be treated as an outlaw nation subject to interrogation and accusations. Its self-image is an important part of its domestic strategy and, internally, it can position its shift in its nuclear stance as North Korea making a strategic deal with other major powers. If North Korea is pressed publicly, its willingness to implement its agreements can very quickly erode. That is not something the United States and other powers want to see happen.
Whether the Israelis found out about the material through their own intelligence sources or North Korea provided a list of recipients of nuclear technology to the United States is unclear. The Israelis have made every effort to make it appear that they knew about this independently. They also have tried to make it appear that they notified the United States, rather than the other way around. But whether the intelligence came from North Korea or was obtained independently, Washington wants to be very careful in its handling of Pyongyang right now.
– Christian
This is still all speculation based on uncheckable leaks, with no confirmed facts. It’s way, way weaker even than the allegations about WMD in Iraq.
And the claims about a Syrian nuclear program have been trashed elsewhere.
Anyone else smell a PR job?
The thing I don’t understand is, why aren’t the Syrians screaming and gnashing their teeth to anyone who will listen? That’s usually what happens whenever one party steps on the other’s toes.
The US/Israeli secrecy may be geared towards increasing Israel’s deterrence in the region. Just like everyone ‘knows’ Israel has nuclear weapons, everyone ‘knows’ what occurred in Syria, and it was baddass. It makes Israel seem more mysterious, all-knowing, and powerful. The rumors that are being fueled may be more fantastic than the real operation, but that plays into the deterrence factor. Syria’s silence makes perfect sense, as they are complicit in illegal and quite provocative actions. If they would go whining to the UN (like usual), they would have to provide details of what was attacked and why, and it appears they can not come up with a plausible lie (yet — give them time).
“What a totally gutsy move.”? Interesting double standard, Israel sends in commandos to Syria and its “gutsy”–Iran sends in commandos to Iraq and its a war crime.
As far the NK regime, a better understanding of the regime, its mindset, and the back-and-forth WMD negotiations can be found here:
http://www.afsa.org/fsj/julaug07/turnabout.pdf
There are confirmed facts in the case. Israel mounted a Raid deep into Syria. This is not questioned. Another fact in this case, never in the past has an Arab country not seized an opportunity to turn something like this into a PR job for themselves. However, this time something is different.
If this speculation about the details of the raid was false then Syria and every Arab country would be shouting about Israeli aggression from the roof tops. The fact is, they aren’t. The only think that makes sense is that the Syrians got caught red handed doing something they didn’t want public knowledge.
If it were a PR job then where is the press release, the news conference. One doesn’t hush up a PR job. PR jobs maximize attention and nobody is doing this. The question is not whether this is a PR job but why is there no PR job at all? I think there is a good explanation.
THe US is trying to get peace talks underway in the middle east. That is the reason why they don’t make a big deal of this publically. They are privately blackmailing Syria into the peace deal or threathening to go public with the details of what they were doing before the raid. The raid’s timing was done for maximum effect in these talks.
This US administration would love to publically show WMD evidence by these rougue governments but that doesn’t solve anything in the middle east. It is only an “I told you so.” However, the truth will eventually come out sometime in the future and the administration will be shown to not be lying about WMDs. They may even release this evidence right before the election to take the wind out of the Democrats sails. Meanwhile I bet the US is showing the evidence behind closed doors to other governments.
I believe the US and Israelis want something better out of the situation. The real problem in the middle east is Jerusalem and the whole West Bank issue. Everything else is a smaller side issue. Force Syria to the table now, make good deals by keeping the raid details private, and then in a year, make the details public.
It is not a PR job but a bargaining chip — politics by other means.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1144268820070911
That is a reuters story about Syria protesting to the UN about Israel invading air space and dropping munitions that didn’t hurt a person or a facility. So I don’t see the “no one is talking about it,” stance being accurate. Then that English Times Report also said that there was lots of “chatter” between China and NK about dead NKs citizens in the raid. The article also claimed nuclear material was stolen from Syria and that it had NK markers in it. So is it a threat to get something from syria? Avoid war and get peace and non proliferation? Didn’t it take photos of Russian missiles in Cuba to get the Russians to back off? I just don’t know or think I would even know if behind doors threats work so well on the national scene. If everyone already thinks it is only worse for everyone to see proof of it I guess.
Good of Israel to be practical about this. The message seems to be, “No nukes for you, but next time we will humiliate you.” No point in grandstanding, as this was clearly too serious for mere political hay-making. Certain allies could learn from this example.
great article i think that the US is keeping secret to allow the North Koreans to save face with the Syrians because they did hand over the info. Why did NK express outrage at the violation of syrian airspace. what interest do they really have in the middle east. the west provides most of their oil
Odds are the Israelis have prisoners from the raid of either North Korean and / or Iranian origin and some proof positive of something really bad. Syrians don’t want to make a big deal about it, ’cause the evidence must be completely da–ing, and the Israelis won’t make big deal out of it until some useful intelligence is developed.
The Syrians aren’t saying much only because they loose out big if they do.
you have to go waaaaay back.….to “axis of evil”. That was a slip, later caught and never really built upon, though it relates exactly to this subject.
North Korea, Iran, Syria.…all working, quietly, together. Missiles sold, tech exchanged, personnel transfered, intel shared. It’s a shell game.…NK can invite inspectors, cause the nasty stuff has been sent to Syria. Iran can deny, cause the stuff is in Syria. NK gets a promise of oil from Iran (later Iran-Iraq)…Syria gets tech it cannot develop on its’ own, plus a shot at putting down that pesky neighbor to the south, Iran gets to dominate the Gulf.
That’s the real show. the magicians in the White House have been distracting everyone with a hand in Iraq, while the greater, more important show goes on in the hand that no one’ paying much attention to.
But, “Axis of Evil” should never have left the public eye as it has.….
“Whoever they are keeping the secret from, it is not the Syrians.“
Which is about as close as Christian, or the majority of commentors in this thread, ever gets to grokking what’s *really* going on. Cranky Observer’s seeing through the bullshit vapors. And anybody who’s actually taking the “Axis of Evil” throwaway line is inhaling the vapors way, way too deeply.
The “Sunday Times — London Times” reporting of Sept. 23–24, 2007 on the Israeli air strike is inconsistent and self-contradictory with earlier reporting on this matter by the same newspaper. On Sept. 16, 2007, the “Sunday Times” reported that the air strike involved a Syrian “nuclear program facility” in Northern Syria (other accounts suggested that this facility was located very near the Syrian-Turkish border — why the Syrians would locate such a sensitive facility so close to the Syrian-Turkish frontier is “another story”). On Sept. 23–24, 2007 the “Sunday Times — London Times” reported that the location of the facility was at a city that is located in the Southwestern quadrant of Syria and closer to the Syrian-Iraqi borders. On top of that we have the “James Bond” reporting that allegedly: (1) Israeli commandos first penetrated this facility obtaining nuclear material samples which were “confirmed” as being of “N. Korean origin;” and, (2) the Israeli commandos “stuck around” until the Israeli Heyl Ha’ Avir bombed the same facility. This does not explain how empty fuel tanks were jettisoned by Israeli fighter aircraft and landed in Turkish territory close to the Turkish-Syrian border on Sept. 6, 2007. Furthermore, the Syrians must really have an “open door” policy for their sensitive “nuclear program” facilities. In all likelihood, the Israeli fighter aircraft struck a “suspicious load target” that was transiting through Syrian territory from the port of Latakia or Tartus with or without the assistance of Israeli ground forces.
If the US acknowledged — in any way — that the Syrians were in possession of WMD, given current doctrine, wouldn’t they have to do something about it?
It’s a depot for Scud type missiles. There was an explosion there some weeks back, with indications that it might have been caused by an attempt to fit a chem warhead to a missile, and the Israelis hit it.
Raw Story has the details, and the nuclear bit is completely not credible. Syria has one tiny research reactor, under close IAEA supervision, and all it does is generate some medical isotopes.
Giving Syria nuclear technology would be like giving an iPod to a caveman.
The nuclear stuff is clearly disinformation, the description of the source strongly implies John Bolton, and is a part of the Iran disinformation campaign that’s coming out of the VP’s office.
Suppose that the Israeli commandos actually picked up the nuclear material (with Syrian labels still attached)? Syria doesn’t want to admit to having had nuclear weapons material — but denials being met with clear evidence would be bad. If Israel refrains from announcing that they got nuclear weapons materials, they can add to their weapons supply. Motive to keep quiet all around. Pure speculation, of course, but one possible way to make sense of the facts so far in evidence.
Matthew,
The Military relationship between Syria and North Korea is decades old, and Janes Defence Weekly reported of a NK nerve gas warhead accident at a Syrian weapon compound last week.
Throw away lines about VP Cheney are less credible than a North Korean press release.
The critical issue to look at is evidence of NK nuclear technology transfers to other states.
The Bush Administration has made clear this is a line that, if it is crossed, will result in an American Military enforced “Death Penalty” for the regimes involved.
This, more than any other reason, is why the Bush Administration and Israel are playing this close to the vest.
A rattled saber makes a great deal of noise.
A drawn saber is very quiet.
The nuclear strategy texts of the Cold War make clear the only way to deal with an emergent nuclear armed regime with irrational leadership is a preemptive and overwhelming military first strike.
The difference between then and now is the precision guided conventional weapons revolution which give US and Israeli military strategists the non-nuclear option.
jesus… “Sunday Times” = crap journalism… anyone remember the single anon source Iranian sniper rifle story for God’s sake enough of the heavy breathing until you get a better source.
Byron Skinner,
Please learn how to spell.
I don’t really have an opinion on the story one way or another, too little real info and too much speculation. I will comment on people who dismiss the concept of Syria developing nuclear weapons. I have one word in reply to that: Pakistan.
Prior to their tests, nobody and I mean NOBODY would have thought that Pakistan had nuclear capability. And yet, through unconventional means, they managed to build themselves a nuclear arsenal. After that, I would think long and hard before dismissing anyone’s ability to acquire Nukes. Whether they actually DO have actual nukes or ARE acquiring them is the salient point, but given the opportunity I don’t doubt that Syria CAN start a nuke program.
Mr Skinner’s remarks would be more relevant if he bothered to check his facts. According to the UN Population database, Israel’s population is growing and although the median age will increase, it will continue to have a fairly youthful society. In fact, although shrinking as a percentage of population, the 15–24 group will still increase for at least the next 25 years.
As far as Israel’s military, whatever its problems with its ground forces, its air force is still considered one of the finest in the world. It is far stronger than Syria’s air force (Israel is the largest operator of F-16s after the US). Also, fighting a guerilla force is very different from fighting a conventional war and afaik the consensus is that Israel would handily beat Syria in an conventional war. And how does peace decrease Israel’s sovereignty?
Mr Skinner also overlooks the difference in economic development. Using PPP (Purchasing Power parity), according to the World Bank, for 2006 Israel had a per capita gross national income of $25,480 (international dollars). By comparison, Syria had a per capita GNI of $3,930. Using the World Bank Atlas method which incorporates such things as factor flows, in US dollars Israel had a per capita GNI of $18,580 and Syria had a per capita GNI of $1,570. According to the IMF, in 2006 Israel’s Real GDP increased 5.1% and Syria’s Real GDP increased 3%. Also, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development, in 2005 Israel had $5.6 billion of inward FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) and outward FDI of $2.5 billion while Syria had inward FDI flow of $500 million and no appreciable outward FDI flow.
In summary, Israel is not the fading country that Mr. Skinner describes.
Awesome job Israel. I wish America had the guts to go after nukes with such vigor. My 2 cents is that it even if it wasnt a nuke its a huge hit to Syrias pride. I dont think they will try anything for a while.
All the money issues aside, what of Syria being a storage depot for things that NK would have to dismantle or destroy to get off the terror watch list and get some foreign aid to their starved natural disaster recovering people? A trade for something unknown or a gift for future consideration, or they might even think they could get it back when the inspectors leave… the chance of getting it back is probably good enough considering they will have to destroy it otherwise.
@Moose — I have one word in reply to that: Pakistan.
Prior to their tests, nobody and I mean NOBODY would have thought that Pakistan had nuclear capability.
Complete utter bullshit:
1979 — The United States cut off aid to Pakistan under section 669 of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 FAA) after it was learned that Pakistan had secretly begun construction of a uranium enrichment facility.
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/pakistan/nuke/chron.htm
Pakistan Nuclear Weapons — A Chronology
—
Syria is under IAEA control (the guys that were right on Iraq) while Pakistan was not. Still everybody did know what they were doing.
Certainly Syria has other problems, 1.2 million Iraqi refugees come to mind, than to start a 20 year nuclear project.
“The Times” is one of the great examples of the media never letting facts interfere in a good story. The usual anti-semitism of the British press and electronic media will find a way to make this successful military operation look bad if they can.
The Israeli’s do not have to release details of the operation to anyone, the US should have a long memory of it’s failed attempt to rescue it’s hostages from the Iranian’s. For the US that lesson appears to have been learned. Nobody in their right mind, discuss’s or publicises special operations that succeed or fail. You may need to do the job again at another time, in another place. As for the statement about low morale, and poor leadership in the Israeli Army, who was it that pulled off this successful operation? Certainly not units lacking morale or suffering bad leadership.
Regards
Popeye
Viet Nam Vet
Australian Army (Rifleman)
I like Isreal. They are the only winning ally we have. I hope they keep kicking ass!
okay!! i admit the u.s army is the best in the world unstoppable the airforce is pretty good high tech and its capabilities are awesome we won the war in iraq.. united states military can never be beat
NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
russia military the best
GO SOVIETS!!!!!!
Russia military the best? What drugs are you taking. Bunch of drug addicts and drunks. If you can not see straight,how are you going to shoot straight.Old people,old weapons,old aircraft,old ships,yes we are really scared??Bring in all the oil money you want but everything can not be rebuilt overnight and it will be years anyway!!
What wrong with IRAN? Iran Government is Very Bad Role and Bad Religious of their own Role. Killing innocent people… That mean their Religious is not fit or match to God’s wills. I think Mahmound Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei leaves their Hearts to somewhere in drawer at their bedroom… They forget to get their heart back in their body to understand what LOVE IS for all MANKINDS!
The US won in Iraq? Israel a winning ally?
Don’t you guys read the news? After some early success, the US has become bogged down in a pathetic disaster in Iraq. It’s almost beyond doubt that Iraq was BETTER OFF under Saddam Hussein (even with all of the harsh, unending sanctions). Back in 1990 we should have just let Iraq have Kuwait — many of the reasons for the attack on Kuwait by Iraq were quite valid (certainly more so than our “reasons” for attacking Iraq!), and anyway who cares about Kuwait? It wasn’t (isn’t) a real democracy, and it has no real culture or history (while Iraq has both). Kuwait is a mean-spirited oil corporation dressed-up like a country.
As for Israel, even with all the military advantages they looked sort of mediocre against those rag-tag militias in southern Lebannon. It’s hard to argue that Israel “won”. In fact, they lost their image of invincibility.
RE: The nuclear bah-humbugs: I don’t have any knowledge beyond what’s reported. However, I do think you all need to recognize the difference between developing a nuke program independently vice receiving nuclear tech/components from someone else. That is what I understand was going on.
That is not something the UN inspectors would even see — nor would Syria’s technical prowess or lack of have any bearing on it — they were receiving something, not constructing it themselves.
So I see no big “gotchas” in the reports so far. North Korea shipped “something”, most likely related to nuclear weapons, to Syria. It arrived in Syria and the Israelis hit it.
What about that is so absurd that it requires conspiracy theories about magical VPs, neocons, or whatever other boogeyman the leftists like to invoke?
THE ZIONISTS EXEC 911
AND WILL START WW 3 IF WE LET THEM.
AMERICA WAKE UP AND SEE THE EVID. AT
TERROR STORM AND LOOSE CHANGE 2ND EDIT
BOTH FREE ON YOU TUBE VIDEOS.
ALSO GOOGLE ZIONSTS CRIMES
THEN SCROLL DOWN TO
CRIME OF THE CENTURY 911.
THEN YOULL KNOW OUR ENEMY NEVER
CAME FROM A GANG IN A CAVE.
REOPEN911.ORG
THE ZIONISTS EXEC 911
AND WILL START WW 3 IF WE LET THEM.
AMERICA WAKE UP AND SEE THE EVID. AT
TERROR STORM AND LOOSE CHANGE 2ND EDIT
BOTH FREE ON YOU TUBE VIDEOS.
ALSO GOOGLE ZIONSTS CRIMES
THEN SCROLL DOWN TO
CRIME OF THE CENTURY 911.
THEN YOULL KNOW OUR ENEMY NEVER
CAME FROM A GANG IN A CAVE.
REOPEN911.ORG
I like how conquoring the capital and capturing saddaam and killing his sons is called “some early success.” Oh well maybe they should have just left after saddaam was executed. Played it like, that is all we wanted we love iraqis and hated saddaam, if you need help invite us. Bye
But something about the hague conventions making a conquoring country responsible for the infrastructure and security of the people in the conquered land probably prevented that.
Iran once again manages to con one or more of their proxies in the Axis of Evil to distract the world from their nuke program; last year they used Hizbullah to pick a fight with Israel, this year they have Syria/ NK get an apparent dirty bomb on Scud program underway using NK nuke technology and Syrian Scuds and oh yes Iran’s latest distraction the Achminadjad stand-up show brought to you by Columbia U.
As to the IDF’s abilities and morale, there is a rennaissance in the IDF vis a vis training, doctrine and morale at every level. The truth is that during the Lebanon war more IDF soldiers complained about not being let loose to obliterate Hizbullah than any other complaint. I was there and I am proud to serve as an IDF infantry reservist and we now have a Chief of Staff who is an experienced warrior.
Oh yes, the photo … Israeli Border Police not IDF regulars or even a SF unit of any description.
no wonder germany roasted the zionists
myth is they never killed 6 mil. only 2 mil. maybe
shalom sharon you fat slob
w & dick & gouliani all your stooges.
see terrorstorm free on you tube.
Very intersting story , that added another twist to this .
Ok so was Syria still considered a roque state by the US? , Didn’t Syria just gain a temporary seat on the UN council ? What happened with Kadafi ?, is he still in power or is their somebody else running the country .
This is crazy in so many ways , not only all the things I have mentioned above , but that it was from Nkorea is crazy as hell .
North of Syria is Turkey , I wonder if the Turks knew about this ?
the zionists will all burn in hell
for what they did on sept 11 2001
and the first to roast will be
zombie sharon.