DT editor emeritus Noah Shachtman send us a heads up on a cool post at his current gig, The Danger Room. Here’s an excerpt:
For years, the American armed forces have worried about an attack on US satellites; this could be how it begins. The United States military has become increasingly dependent on space. It uses photo-reconnaissance satellites to observe potential adversaries, GPS satellites to guide munitions with pin-point accuracy, communications satellites to handle the flow of information into and out of a theater of operations, and early warning satellites to detect and track enemy missile launches to name just a few of the better known applications. Because of this increasing dependence, many analysts have worried that the US is most vulnerable to asymmetric attacks against its space assets; in their view US satellites are sitting ducks without any sort of defense and their destruction would cripple the US military. Chinas test of a sophisticated anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon a year ago, Friday — 11 January 2007, when it shot down its own obsolete weather satellite — has only increased these concerns. But is this true? Could a countryeven a powerful country like China that has demonstrated a very sophisticated, if nascent, ability to shoot down satellites at all altitudesinflict anything close to a knock-out blow against the US in space? And if it was anything less than a knock-out, how seriously would it affect US war fighting capabilities?
So is China a valid space threat or not? Read Noah’s three part series, starting with Part I here.
– Ward
{ 13 comments… read them below or add one }
There is no doubt in my mind and significant intelligence to support just how substantial China’s anti satellite program has grown to become. Our study suggests that over a dozen countries have active space weapons programs currently underway. With a significant amount of communications suing space based assets and our space based surveillance and command and control system, the United States should see this as a serious threat.
Much a do about nothing. China won’t being doing that again. There are only 2-4 other countries other than the US who may be capable of ASAT. All of those countries have a vested interest in space, so it is unlikely they want to go down that road. In the case of China, they want to be as capable as the US. That said, I have never quite figured out how capability equals intent.
If they knock out some satellites and we go partially blind. I would bet there is a very good chance we may over retaliate, posibbly with nukes to insure our survival. We need to have a backup program with more local information via radars and closer range communication equipment.
“Much a do about nothing.”
The only thing worse than Chicken Littles are Lotus Eaters. Yes, yes, go back to sleepy poo. Don’t worry, nothing bad will ever happen again. I mean, can you think of how bad it would be if something bad DID happen? Therefore, nothing ever will.
Let me guess, you’re an insurance adjuster, right? Maybe in Quality Assurance, somewhere? Hey, don’t worry guys, I mean, think of how rational the Chinese are, with their poison-based toys and their strong, deep commitment to democracy.
I feel if pushed China can act again, I wont poo poo this.
It can happen & China now Knows it can.
Just rearm missiles with ASat killers & Bye bye US Intelligence assets in one day or one week.
Dont push China.
We need stealth satellites to act as emergency backup. They don’t necessarily need to be “stealth” like the F-22, they just need to sit there quietly, not broadcasting, emitting as little energy as possible, ready to act as a backup.
That, and it should be the policy of the United States that any attack on a US satellite is considered a declaration of war. An attack on certain US satellites (anything related to missile launch early warning) is considered prima facie evidence of a nuclear attack. Nobody will risk nuclear war to shoot down a few satellites.
Good Morning Folks,
Here we go again, satellite killers from China. The real story we should be watching out of China but is not on anyones radar is what they are quietly doing in the South China Sea. Military build up are taking place on Hainan Island’s Ledong Naval Base and Yulin Naval Bases, Rocky Island in the Paracel Group and on Woody Island in the Spartty Group, an excellent over head of Woody Island is on google, take a look and then ask why?
A look at the overall Geography of the are would strongly suggest somethingmoer then just a presence in the Straights of Malacca. It must nbe noted that the U.S. has no land base any longer in thes region of the Pacific.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
It’s not the ASAT missiles that worry me, it is the satellite hackers. Satellites can be (re-)programmed to manuever or execute a certain mission. Meaning the satellite has a comms receiver, which means access to the satellite.
A hacked command that manuevers the satellite off-course (and thus burning precious limited fuel) would result in an effective soft kill; no need for expensive, complicated ASAT weapons, just a really big radio and some really good intel would make US satellites looking the wrong way and taking them effectively out of the game.
It all comes down to “how bat s*#t crazy” are the Chinese? How far are they willing to go to get Taiwan and push us out of their sphere of influence?
On one hand our economies are heavily linked now. So you would think it will not happen.
On the other side of it, the Communist Government is not truly responsive to the people, who would be against a major war.
No senior politicians are worried about the next elections…..Look at Tienimen Square.
Finally there is the character of the Chinese Communist leadership.
I do not know enough about this to comment, except they have the will to run unarmed students over with tanks to keep power.
It worries me that few people saw WW1 coming, or for that matter WW2.
Who would have thought that cutting off oil and steel would cause the Japaneese to attack the US?
Unfortunately not the commander of Pearl….
We all make the mistake of thinking other people are like us when making major decisions. They are not; especially the Chinese.
Does anyone here have some insight on the leadership of China? I would be interested.
I’m no tech wizard but I’ve always wondered why they didn’t build satellites with outward facing directional attenas? That way no direct signal from earth could effect them. Only a deeper orbiting satellite could address those units due to the angle required of the signal receiver.
I would hope our guys in that funny 5 sided building have replacement satellites either in deerper orbit or ready to launch ASAP to move into replace those damaged by our future enemies.
I DO NOT trust either China or Russia. After Communism fell, you never saw any of those guys lined up and shot. They just faded into the woods and are busy reformatting the old Soviet Union. Reagen Was right!
FXXK China!
Don’t fool yourselves. Something is brewing in China. I was only partially right in a comment I made in May 07 regarding China/US relations. I believe the people of China want to improve US relations, but the government does not. As demonstrated Nov 07 when China prevented the US Navy Kitty Hawk task force from docking in Hong Kong to celebrate Thanksgiving with their families and then the pursuit and showdown by the Chinese Navy in the Taiwan Strait of the same Naval Fleet. This action demonstrates China’s government is not a friend of the US nor do they have any plans to be. With military Generals in civilian government leadership positions, there is no civilian oversight of the Chinese military or China’s international affairs. This puts them out of touch with the people of China and their will for peace. This is a very dangerous situation. Is space our next “Pearl Harbor”. A premptive strike on US intelligence/communication/navigation assets? Based on current information, I believe that the Chinese are positioning themselves for just this situation. The question is when.
we are China`s best customer —– they will not
upset thair best customer . China is now accustom to capitalism.————
The USA WINS!
usa