It’s officially time to freak out … or is it? The AP reports the following:
A large U.S. spy satellite has lost power and could hit the Earth in late February or early March, government officials said Saturday.
The satellite, which no longer can be controlled, could contain hazardous materials, and it is unknown where on the planet it might come down, they said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the information is classified as secret. It was not clear how long ago the satellite lost power, or under what circumstances.
“Appropriate government agencies are monitoring the situation,” said Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the National Security Council, when asked about the situation after it was disclosed by other officials. “Numerous satellites over the years have come out of orbit and fallen harmlessly. We are looking at potential options to mitigate any possible damage this satellite may cause.”
He would not comment on whether it is possible for the satellite to perhaps be shot down by a missile. He said it would be inappropriate to discuss any specifics at this time.
A senior government official said that lawmakers and other nations are being kept apprised of the situation.
The spacecraft contains hydrazine — which is rocket fuel — according to a government official who was not authorized to speak publicly but spoke on condition of anonymity. Hydrazine, a colorless liquid with an ammonia-like odor, is a toxic chemical and can cause harm to anyone who contacts it.
Such an uncontrolled re-entry could risk exposure of U.S. secrets, said John Pike, a defense and intelligence expert. Spy satellites typically are disposed of through a controlled re-entry into the ocean so that no one else can access the spacecraft, he said.
Pike also said it’s not likely the threat from the satellite could be eliminated by shooting it down with a missile, because that would create debris that would then re-enter the atmosphere and burn up or hit the ground.
Pike, director of the defense research group GlobalSecurity.org, estimated that the spacecraft weighs about 20,000 pounds and is the size of a small bus. He said the satellite would create 10 times less debris than the Columbia space shuttle crash in 2003. Satellites have natural decay periods, and it’s possible this one died as long as a year ago and is just now getting ready to re-enter the atmosphere, he said.
Jeffrey Richelson, a senior fellow with the National Security Archive, said the spacecraft likely is a photo reconnaissance satellite. Such eyes in the sky are used to gather visual information from space about adversarial governments and terror groups, including construction at suspected nuclear sites or militant training camps. The satellites also can be used to survey damage from hurricanes, fires and other natural disasters.
The largest uncontrolled re-entry by a NASA spacecraft was Skylab, the 78-ton abandoned space station that fell from orbit in 1979. Its debris dropped harmlessly into the Indian Ocean and across a remote section of western Australia.
In 2000, NASA engineers successfully directed a safe de-orbit of the 17-ton Compton Gamma Ray Observatory, using rockets aboard the satellite to bring it down in a remote part of the Pacific Ocean.
In 2002, officials believe debris from a 7,000-pound science satellite smacked into the Earth’s atmosphere and rained down over the Persian Gulf, a few thousand miles from where they first predicted it would plummet.
Here’s how MSNBC is covering our imminent demise:
So what say we? Lottery time? Will it make it through the atmosphere intact? If so, when and where will it hit?
Big prizes await! You must be alive to win, however, so if you are hit and killed by the satellite you are ineligible for your prize. On the plus side, we will definitely honor you with a DT post.
And watch out for that hydrazine creamy filling, too.
(Chicken Little appears courtesy of Disney.)
– Ward
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The satellite is very likely (but not certainly) USA-193, launched in December 2006 and pretty much DOA due to a software fault. It’s been closely tracked by public observers and the latest orbital elements indicate reentry in the second half of March — not quite what the news story says, but close. Decay predictions tend to be iffy.
See
http://mt-milcom.blogspot.com/2007/01/expensive-new-us-spy-satellite.html
http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2008/0178.html
I say it will make it through the atmosphere intact on March 3rd and the chinese will use their new cold fusion-powered tractor beams to to take it and steal our spy satellite secrets.
But will Taco Bell put a raft in the Indian Ocean offering free tacos to everyone if it gets hit? (Remember the Mir reentry?)
not to worry….Rock Hudson, et. al. will retrieve it (at South Pole this time)
Hopefully it hits my car…
It will probably hit the ocean. (75% of earth, remember) And if it doesn’t, then I will got out on a limb and say a city in Europe.
camp – PETA doesn’t care about people, only animals.
BTW, the news is kinda blowing this satellite thing outta proportions. odds are it will hit water, or an unpopulated area.
campbells right, Ice Station Zebra!
Just how dense is a reconnaisance satellite,anyway? The stuff that survives re-entry is usually dense components with some insulation, like the O2 tanks from Skylab that were recovered in Australia. Given that a lot of a recon sat is space for the optics, I wonder if much is really going to survive to hit the surface?
@FoxThree, campbell:
I dunno — the nuclear part of it may come down in Libya, requiring a diversion of Demi Moore, Viggo Mortenson, and the rest of their secret “SEAL Recon” team to help the Rangers carry it out, a la GI JANE.
Or, that DARPA orbital repair/refueler program could just give it a little nudge, so it comes down wherever we want it to.
Or, close enough for gummint work.
Maybe I am dumb, but wouldn’t this be the uber test for our shiny new missile defense kit?
Just wondering.
If this thing hits my house I am going to be pissed.
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