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Home » Catch the "Buzz" » It Takes More than Photos to get a ‘Smoking Gun’

It Takes More than Photos to get a ‘Smoking Gun’

cuban-missile-crisis.jpg

If you’re old enough, the pic­tures of Soviet ICBM mis­siles pre­sented to the United Nations dur­ing the Cuban mis­sile cri­sis left an indeli­ble mark in your cortex.

US Ambassador to the United Nations, Adlai Stevenson, placed a series of pho­tos on an easel to answer Soviet charges that the US had no proof that the Soviets had placed mis­siles in the island state and that the Soviets were just help­ing Cuba develop.

Stevenson told the Soviets that, “we do have the evi­dence. We have it, and it is clear and it is incon­tro­vert­ible.” And it was. The first pic­tures were of an area north of the vil­lage of Candelaria, south­west of Havana. The first pho­to­graph was taken in late August 1962 and it sim­ply showed unde­vel­oped coun­try­side. The next pic­ture showed a few tents and vehi­cles and sev­eral new roads. The next pic­ture, taken 24 hours later, revealed tents for up to 500 men and seven ICBM mis­sile trail­ers. But the jack­pot wasn’t hit until mid-​​October when a U-​​2 air­craft pho­tographed the area of San Cristobal.

“In only six min­utes, US Air Force Maj. Richard Heyser snapped 928 pho­tographs that yielded the first con­fir­ma­tion of offen­sive mis­siles in Cuba,” accord­ing to “Soviet Deception in the Cuban Missile Crisis,” an April 2007 arti­cle by James Hansen, who served in both CIA and DIA.

The Soviets had lied about the pres­ence of mis­siles just 90 miles from the US main­land and they had been caught at it. This was prob­a­bly the first time that Americans were exposed pub­licly to the art and sci­ence of what intel­li­gence types call change detec­tion. But it turns out that what has become one of the touch­stones of the fab­u­lous capa­bil­i­ties of spies in the skies — also known as high-​​flying planes such as the U-​​2 and satel­lites — was not quite as sem­i­nal as it seemed at the time.

Many argued that the pic­tures were proof of the supe­ri­or­ity of what became known dur­ing the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) as “national tech­ni­cal means.”

But, at an April 28 con­fer­ence held at Georgetown University to cel­e­brate the dona­tion to the uni­ver­sity of a lot of per­sonal papers and recently declas­si­fied files from for­mer CIA Director Richard Helms, that con­ven­tional wis­dom was dealt a death blow.

Bud Wheelon, the CIA’s first deputy direc­tor for sci­ence and tech­nol­ogy, said that the agency knew about the mis­siles from other, more pro­saic sources before­hand. In fact, human sources in Cuba had obtained detailed infor­ma­tion about the Cuban bombers and mis­siles, Wheelon told me this week.

The first solid infor­ma­tion was obtained Sept. 17, he said, from agents on the ground. Using that and other infor­ma­tion, the US flew the U-​​2 and other planes over Cuba to get con­fir­ma­tion and to pro­vide the world with unde­ni­able proof that did not com­pro­mise intel­li­gence sources and meth­ods. After all, the Cubans and Soviets knew about the U-​​2s and other planes because they shot at them. We under­stand that at least one senior intel­li­gence offi­cial — long since retired — was secretly awarded one of the CIA’s high­est hon­ors for the spy­ing done on the ground in Cuba. Senior intel­li­gence offi­cials, includ­ing Wheelon and CIA Director John McCone, knew about the intel­li­gence from the agent and believed it. But the intel­li­gence com­mu­nity did not.

A National Intelligence Estimate dated Sept. 19, 1962 con­cluded the Soviets were unlikely to try and install mis­siles in Cuba.

“The USSR could derive con­sid­er­able mil­i­tary advan­tage from the estab­lish­ment of Soviet medium and inter­me­di­ate range bal­lis­tic mis­siles in Cuba, or from the estab­lish­ment of a Soviet sub­ma­rine base there. As between these two, the estab­lish­ment of a sub­ma­rine base would be the more likely. Either devel­op­ment, how­ever, would be incom­pat­i­ble with Soviet prac­tice to date and with Soviet pol­icy as we presently esti­mate it,” the esti­mate concluded.

Not the first time they goofed. And it won’t be the last. But that is the nature of intel­li­gence. It is the analy­sis of uncer­tain infor­ma­tion and yields insights that are often wrong. But remem­ber that the U-​​2 was built. Remember that agent work­ing in Cuba.

And remem­ber those 928 pho­tographs. The process wasn’t per­fect. But war was averted.

– Colin Clark

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May 7th, 2008 | Catch the "Buzz" | 282946 Comments »http://defensetech.org/2008/05/07/it-takes-more-than-photos-to-get-a-smoking-gun/It+Takes+More+than+Photos+to+get+a+%27Smoking+Gun%272008-05-07+15%3A50%3A40Ward You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

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  1. Penta says:
    May 7, 2008 at 12:46 pm

    This brings up an irrel­e­vant yet related ques­tion I’ve had for a while:
    Need one have –two– work­ing eyes these days to do IMINT inter­pre­ta­tion?
    Or can visually-​​impaired folks like me get in on the action?

    Reply
  2. coolhand77 says:
    May 7, 2008 at 1:22 pm

    YOu know, that has always been one of my gripes with the military..they fill jobs like mess chief and anylist jobs with able bod­ied troops that could be out on the ground. Instead of ter­mi­nat­ing the ser­vice of indi­vid­u­als that are too injured for front line duty, give them the option (with proper secu­rity clear­ance lev­els of course) for those jobs that DON’T require you to be a young buck (like the guy that got let go because he turned 60…and his job was run­ning the chow hall).

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  3. Richard E. Herbon says:
    May 8, 2008 at 9:51 am

    This was a good story. I was one of many who served dur­ing this time period aboard the U.S.S.Shangri-La CVA-​​38. We were in a 40 ship con­voy patrol­ing the Cuban waters, and it was clear that the Cubans were seri­ous about their nuclear weapons.We cir­cled the Island for 27 days and were glad things turned out as they did. It was a very try­ing sit­u­a­tion and all hell could have broke loose.But the Armed forces of the United States of America were on the job!God Bless America.

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    May 8, 2008 at 5:06 pm

    I was one of many that par­tic­i­pated in this. I remem­ber the Cuban mis­sile cri­sis well. I was assigned to A Btry, 3/​6th FA, 3rd Corps. Back then we were part of a STRAC force and kept our bags packed 24/​7 so we could move fast. We loaded on rail cars back then and went to Ft Stewart, GA and from there, we went to Port Everglades, Fl and loaded our equip­ment on a LST. We were stayiny at the Gulfstream Race Track not far from the Port. I can’t remem­ber what day, but we left the Race Track and boarded the LST and left. I spent a lot of years in the Army after that, but the Cuban Missile Crisis always sticks out in my mind. We were very close to a nuclear war, but when you are so young, war is war and I never gave a thought as to what type it was going to be. All I knew, I had a job to do and was pre­pared to do it to the very best of my abil­ity. If there are any of you guys out there, it sure would be nice to hear from you.

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    The only gen­eral awards for the ships (I was on the Independence CVA62) was the Navy Expeditionary Medal. There may have been other unit commendations

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