I thought this was an interesting story in today’s Washington Post. It speaks to the extreme skepticism early on with reports that the Syrians were building an illicit nuke plant that the Israelis blew up a few months ago.
I remember attending a roundtable lunch a few days after the attack where nuclear “experts” cast serious doubt on the contention that the Syrian facility that was bombed actually was used for nuke fuel processing or anything else weapons related.
But the Washington Post story today speaks to the camouflaging capabilities governments are now employing to conceal their intentions. It’s an interesting look at the lengths to which governments will and can conceal their secret efforts from overhead surveillance and also it shows some of the laborious techniques they’ll employ to send out red herrings.
Experience With Syria Exemplifies Challenge That Detection Presents
Syria went to extraordinary lengths to conceal its undeclared construction of a plutonium-producing nuclear reactor from spies in the sky and on the ground in recent years, according to a draft report by independent nuclear experts briefed by Bush administration officials.
The effectiveness of the camouflage effort raises new doubts about the prospects for certain detection of future clandestine nuclear weapons-related activities, the Institute for Science and International Security concluded in its report on the Syrian facility. “This case serves as a sobering reminder of the difficulty of identifying secret nuclear activities,” the report said.
According to the ISIS report to be released this week, the fake roof was just the start. Syrian engineers went to “astonishing lengths” to hide cooling and ventilation systems, power lines and other features that normally are telltale signs of a nuclear reactor, authors David Albright and Paul Brannan wrote.
For example, the main building appears small and shallow from the air, but it was evidently built over large underground chambers — tens of meters in depth — that were large enough to house the nuclear reactor, as well as a reserve water-storage tank and pools for spent fuel rods, the report said.
An extensive network of electrical lines appears to have been buried in trenches. Traditional water-cooling towers were replaced with an elaborate underground system that discharged into the Euphrates River. And, instead of using smokestack-like ventilation towers prominent at many reactor sites, the ventilation system appears to have been built along the walls of the building, with louver openings not visible from the air, the authors contended.
The ISIS report noted that early skepticism that Syria was building a reactor there was based partly on the observable absence of revealing features. “The current domestic and international capabilities to detect nuclear facilities and activities are not adequate to prevent more surprises in the future,” the report warned.
And here’s the ISIS report to pick over for yourself…
– Christian
The only way to catch this stuff is to go in early and track changes over time. With a single snap-shot it’d be difficult to detect trend changes. For instance, you’d get evidence of construction (trucks going in, dirt going out…etc).
Don’t know if spy planes would help any…probably not though. Emphasis will shift back to people on the ground doing the spying…maybe unmanned ground vehicles would conduct better surveillance?
Of course, this only serves to drive things underground, DPRK-style.
I think that the story of the Syrian reactor is a good sign. Persistent surveillance forced the Syrians to build this reactor (if that’s what it was) underground using all of these crazy new techniques. No doubt this greatly escalated the cost. Even at this expense, the reactor was still discovered and destroyed. 2 points for good, 0 for proliferation.
It is unfortunate that the Dimona nuclear reactor was not bombed years ago before it became active.
Syria now has the right to retaliate against Israel.
Now, now, Sam.
Are you still upset about the IAF beating the pants off the Syrian Air Force in 1982? Quoting from GlobalSecurity.org:
“During the Israel’s Operation Peace for Galilee in 1982 Israeli aircraft struck Syrian surface-to-air missiles, resulting in the destruction of nineteen sites and the damaging of four. Israeli aerial mastery was confirmed in the skies over the Biqa Valley. At the conclusion of the first week of the war, after the participation of approximately 100 combat planes on each side, a total of 86 Syrian MiG-21, MiG-23, and Sukhoi-22 aircraft had been shot down with no Israeli losses.“
EIGHTY. SIX. TO. ZERO.
Please… let Syria try… the IAF can use the workout.
(evil Zionist Bwahh-haa-haa!)
Sam said: “Syria now has the right to retaliate against Israel.“
I doubt they will, cause they know the US has Israels back.
Well, one question still remains… was this the only reactor being built? What if the destroyed reactor was merely the decoy, feint, or distraction in a sleight of hand? Sure it could have been productive if it had become operational. But maybe there’s a Syrian super duper double secret spy-satellite resistant underground special reactor that nobody, not even Syria, knows about?… Maybe.
The age old problem of overhead intel versus eyes on the ground. This sort of surprise is what can come when we over emphasize a particular intelligence collection method over everything else
” to conceal its undeclared construction of a plutonium-producing nuclear reactor “
– Er, who says that’s what it was? Let’s not go swallowing the official version again without any questions. Remember those WMD that were absolutely, positively in Iraq according to this type of intelligence?
It now turns out the pictures released of the Syrian site were not exactly untouched — maybe we should be looking at that rather than the misdirection intended here. The key line is ‘briefed by Bush Administration officials…’
I don’t think Syria has a “right” to attack Israel. I would say they have a justification. A “Right” implies that it is protected by law and can be enforced by law. Obviusly, the UN cannot enforce Syria’s “right” to attack Israel. I don’t think you ever have a “right” to retaliate agaionst someone. You simply have varying levels of justification.
If the reactor was camouflaged then maybe the extent of the damaged was camouflaged. Also, maybe it took so long release all the info and the inside photos because it took that long to extract the guy, and his extended family, who took those photos.
“They HAVE found WMD evidence in Iraq“
What — mobile biological warfare labs, an active nuclear program, yellowcake from Niger, long-range rockets?
Or just remains of chemical weapons built long before?
The WMD issue was Causus Belli for the UK, so it has received a lot more attention in the media. When no evidence was found the government admitted they got it wrong. — see http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3054991.stm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2005/apr/08/uk.iraq
Richard Norton-Taylor The Guardian, Friday April 8 2005
“We got it wrong on Iraq WMD, intelligence chiefs finally admit
Intelligence chiefs have admitted for the first time that claims they made about Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction were wrong and have not been substantiated.
The admission is revealed in the annual report of the parliamentary intelligence and security committee which also sharply criticises the lack of communication between ministers and the Secret Intelligence Service, MI6. ”