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Home » The Defense Biz » ‘Next-​​War-​​itis’ Rampant in US Military

‘Next-​​War-​​itis’ Rampant in US Military

gates.jpg

Oh guys, you’re gonna love this one.

From today’s front page of Military​.com:

Gates Cautions Against ‘Next-​​war-​​itis’

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. — The Pentagon must focus on cur­rent war demands, even if it means strain­ing the U.S. armed forces and devot­ing less time and money on future threats, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Tuesday.

Meeting the war-​​fighting needs of the troops now and tak­ing care of them prop­erly when they get home must be the pri­or­ity, Gates said in a speech to a jour­nal­ists at a sem­i­nar here spon­sored by the Heritage Foundation, a con­ser­v­a­tive think tank.

“I have noticed too much of a ten­dency towards what might be called Next-​​War-​​itis — the propen­sity of much of the defense estab­lish­ment to be in favor of what might be needed in a future con­flict,” Gates said.

But in a world of lim­ited resources, he said, the Pentagon must con­cen­trate on build­ing a mil­i­tary that can defeat the cur­rent ene­mies: smaller, ter­ror­ist groups and mili­tias wag­ing irreg­u­lar warfare.

If it means putting off more expen­sive weapons for the future or adding to the stress on the Army — that is a risk worth tak­ing, he said. 

All this com­ing dur­ing 09 bud­get markup sea­son, sup­ple­men­tal fund­ing fights and the Air Force UAV smack­down. Now I’m begin­ning to thing Gates really has some Rumsfeldian guts to chal­lenge con­ven­tion and ser­vice momentum…

He also issued a warn­ing to the mil­i­tary ser­vices, which have long set their sights on pricey, sophis­ti­cated weapons sys­tems that take decades to develop and get onto the battlefield.

The Army has its $200 bil­lion Future Combat System, the Air Force has its F-​​22 jet fighter. Both pro­grams have been plagued by delays and esca­lat­ing costs, as well as crit­i­cism from Congress.

Going for­ward, such weapons pro­grams will have show they can be use­ful now against ter­ror groups and insur­gents, he said.

In a recent visit to Red River Army Depot in Texas, Gates saw some pieces of the FCS that can be sent to the war front now — and he said that must con­tinue in order for the pro­gram to con­tinue to be viable. Gates, how­ever, will be leav­ing office long before the FCS or F-​​22 pro­grams are fully fielded. In his speech Monday night at the 50th anniver­sary of the launch of NORAD — the North American Aerospace Defense Command — Gates reminded the crowd that his stint as Pentagon chief will end in exactly 254 days. 

…and I’m sure there aren’t too many Air Force and Army PMs that are cry­ing about that…

– Christian

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May 13th, 2008 | The Defense Biz | 284146 Comments »http://defensetech.org/2008/05/13/next-war-itis-rampant-in-us-military/%27Next-War-itis%27+Rampant+in+US+Military2008-05-13+20%3A33%3A48Ward You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

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  1. pfcem says:
    May 13, 2008 at 4:04 pm

    I don’t think there is any more proof needed as to how incom­pe­tent Robert Gates is as a Defense Secretary.

    Reply
  2. Brian says:
    May 13, 2008 at 4:50 pm

    What an idiot.
    It’s not equip­ment that is ham­per­ing the war on ter­ror. No advanced sys­tem is going to make it any eas­ier to catch a sui­cide bomber.
    “The F-​​22 must be use­ful against insur­gents for it to be viable”??? Damn, that’s stu­pid. I guess the Navy can kiss their air­craft car­ri­ers good­bye. I guess bal­lis­tic mis­sile defense is use­less, as is our entire nuclear arsenal.

    Reply
  3. Cole says:
    May 13, 2008 at 5:03 pm

    I read numer­ous arti­cles about Secretary Gates speech sev­eral hours ago. You are leav­ing out some key parts of the speech.
    Speaking about over­stressed ground forces, Gates said the ground com­po­nent “would be hard-​​pressed to launch a major con­ven­tional ground oper­a­tion else­where in the world at this time” but that those sce­nar­ios were unlikely and that U.S. air and seapower could “defeat any-​​repeat any-​​adversary who com­mit­ted an act of aggression-​​whether in the Persian Gulf, on the Korean Peninsula, or in the Straits of Taiwan.“
    He also praised the MRAP say­ing that of 150 attacks on them so far, all but 6 Soldiers survived.…which is less than a third of the 22% casu­alty rate for troops attacked in HMMWVs.
    An Army LTC spokesman later in the day said, “We hear him loud and clear and we’re doing what he wants.” That no doubt refers to the accel­er­ated pro­grams and spin-​​outs that FCS is work­ing on as we speak. These will help the cur­rent Soldiers equipped with cur­rent Bradley’s, HMMWVs, and Abrams.
    LTG Vane also said in a Pentagon inter­view: “Tomorrow’s readi­ness is influ­enced by today’s capa­bil­i­ties. The Future Combat System is rel­e­vant in today’s bat­tles as well as for tomorrow’s.”

    Reply
  4. HumanPestControl says:
    May 13, 2008 at 5:10 pm

    Gates is great­est Sec Def ever. He is right. Could have used him instead of Rummy’s RMA BS.
    Limited resources is the key. Imagine, actu­ally hav­ing to be strate­gic and make hard choices about what is needed and what is a fan­tasy, like WW3 with China or the infi­nite apoc­a­lyp­tic ‘what if’ sce­nar­ios peo­ple dream up. Mainly the AF, and Navy sub com­mu­nity whom have not come to grips with real­ity.
    It is not really a ‘here and now’ vs the unknown all or noth­ing sce­nario. There will be a del­i­cate bal­ance. But, the needs of the here and now, and most likely future do take prece­dent over the unknown, which by its very nature can­not be planned for. Whatever hap­pens in the future, the Pentagon would have bought and trained the wrong things any­way, as has hap­pened every con­flict.
    Although if the rest of the US Gov was not so incom­pe­tent and risk averse, they could relieve the DoD of many of their cur­rent non-​​kinetic duties, which are more impor­tant in 4GW, than killing peo­ple.
    It feels like Gen McCaffrey vs Col HR McMaster. I am with the Col McMaster myself.

    Reply
  5. C4Casey says:
    May 13, 2008 at 5:20 pm

    The next-​​war-​​itis do have a valid point. If we focus all our energy on counter-​​insurgency, then our con­ven­tional forces lose their deter­ent capa­blity and the lik­ly­hood of a future con­ven­tional con­flict increases. If we don’t mod­ern­ize our con­ven­tional forces, it is a real pos­si­bil­ity that we could be dealt an embar­rass­ing mil­i­tary defeat. Not that this is all Gate’s fault, how­ever. It’s obsurd that we are spend­ing less than 4% GDP on mil­i­tary when we’ve been at war for seven years. Congress should increase fund­ing to at least 4.5% so we can focus on both needs.

    Reply
  6. C4Casey says:
    May 13, 2008 at 5:20 pm

    The next-​​war-​​itis do have a valid point. If we focus all our energy on counter-​​insurgency, then our con­ven­tional forces lose their deter­ent capa­blity and the lik­ly­hood of a future con­ven­tional con­flict increases. If we don’t mod­ern­ize our con­ven­tional forces, it is a real pos­si­bil­ity that we could be dealt an embar­rass­ing mil­i­tary defeat. Not that this is all Gate’s fault, how­ever. It’s obsurd that we are spend­ing less than 4% GDP on mil­i­tary when we’ve been at war for seven years. Congress should increase fund­ing to at least 4.5% so we can focus on both needs.

    Reply
  7. knight109 says:
    May 13, 2008 at 5:21 pm

    The next-​​war-​​itis do have a valid point. If we focus all our energy on counter-​​insurgency, then our con­ven­tional forces lose their deter­ent capa­blity and the lik­ly­hood of a future con­ven­tional con­flict increases. If we don’t mod­ern­ize our con­ven­tional forces, it is a real pos­si­bil­ity that we could be dealt an embar­rass­ing mil­i­tary defeat. Not that this is all Gate’s fault, how­ever. It’s obsurd that we are spend­ing less than 4% GDP on mil­i­tary when we’ve been at war for seven years. Congress should increase fund­ing to at least 4.5% so we can focus on both needs.

    Reply
  8. knight109 says:
    May 13, 2008 at 5:22 pm

    The next-​​war-​​itis do have a valid point. If we focus all our energy on counter-​​insurgency, then our con­ven­tional forces lose their deter­ent capa­blity and the lik­ly­hood of a future con­ven­tional con­flict increases. If we don’t mod­ern­ize our con­ven­tional forces, it is a real pos­si­bil­ity that we could be dealt an embar­rass­ing mil­i­tary defeat. Not that this is all Gate’s fault, how­ever. It’s obsurd that we are spend­ing less than 4% GDP on mil­i­tary when we’ve been at war for seven years. Congress should increase fund­ing to at least 4.5% so we can focus on both needs.

    Reply
  9. TB says:
    May 13, 2008 at 5:24 pm

    Just some con­jec­ture, but the first thing I thought of when I read his speech was maybe he’s read­ing some bud­getary tea leaves and try­ing to soften a few blows about new weapons.

    Reply
  10. KragCulloden says:
    May 13, 2008 at 5:30 pm

    Its sad when com­mon sense becomes news­wor­thy, but after Rummy com­mon sense is refresh­ing.
    You fight and win the war you in, before you start buy­ing for the next *pos­si­ble* war. Simple stuff. I’m glad he said it.
    The Air Force and Navy need to take it to heart and actu­ally com­pre­hend what it means. Focus on today doo­fus, not on next year. Once the shoot­ing stops and *this* war is over, then you can go back to dream­ing up rea­sons for the shiny gad­get in the cat­a­log you are sure you need.
    How about we get all the bro­ken gear fixed or replaced, get the Guard, Reserves, Active forces and MPS/​prepositioned caches restocked to pre-​​war lev­els, and actu­ally fin­ish fight­ing the cur­rent war(s) before we start any new pro­cure­ment pro­gram that requires bil­lions and bil­lions of R&D work up front? You know, pay the cur­rent bills before tak­ing on a whole new money-​​sucking invest­ment?
    Good for Gates. I like him more and more.

    Reply
  11. ohwilleke says:
    May 13, 2008 at 5:42 pm

    Gates is spot on. The notion that the Department of Defense spend­ing, and our national tax/​non-​​defense spend­ing so con­tinue on a busi­ness as usual basis when we are fight­ing two regional wars is absurd.

    Reply
  12. lenn says:
    May 13, 2008 at 5:43 pm

    Finally some­one with com­mon sense in the pen­ta­gon! Are brave guys are dying over there and we should do EVERYTHING to sup­port them!
    Spending bil­lions on devel­ope­ing phaser rifles and quan­tum tor­pe­dos for a future war with aliens doesn’t make much sense today.
    lenn

    Reply
  13. Brad says:
    May 13, 2008 at 6:00 pm

    Gates is the only SecDef to make Rumsfeld look like a hero.
    I guess we should be remak­ing the DOD into a 2 mil­lion man police force to arrest vil­lagers with pitch­forks.
    “Going for­ward, such weapons pro­grams will have show they can be use­ful now against ter­ror groups and insur­gents, he said.“
    Really? We don’t need no subs then, and ELINT is garbage, prob­a­bly can drop the soap with the V-​​22, good bye F-​​22, good bye EFV.
    You know what was a good army? Vietnam, baby. Let’s go back to F-​​4s and Hueys, bring­ing back the oldies! And Shermans too. Let’s tri­fecta this jagoff.

    Reply
  14. gergyrrab says:
    May 13, 2008 at 8:06 pm

    This line of dis­cus­sion is silly. Where are the real­i­ties of the bud­get and the real threat. Why do we need a fleet of F-22’s, except to pro­vide the next gen­er­a­tion of AF gen­er­als their cav­alry to get slaugh­tered by the next gen­er­a­tion of machine guns.
    We don’t have the money to give them their dream mounts any­more. At least in the quan­tity that they feel are needed. As Stalin said, ‘quan­tity has a qual­ity of its own’.

    Reply
  15. pfcem says:
    May 13, 2008 at 11:16 pm

    There are two rea­sons why these state­ments by Gates are idiocy rather than “com­mon sense”.
    1) Our cur­rent “ene­mies” CAN NOT defeat us (they can hardly even hurt us) mil­i­tar­ily. Yes we need to fight our cur­rent “ene­mies” dif­fer­ently than “con­ven­tional” ene­mies (although one of the biggest prob­lems we have had is fight­ing our cur­rent “ene­mies” half-​​assed) but their mil­i­tary capa­bil­i­ties DO NOT jus­tify sac­ri­fic­ing our future abil­ity to fight a more “con­ven­tional” enemy.
    The MRAP vehi­cles are a prime exam­ple of this. FINALLY more & more poe­ple are begin­ning to real­ize that despite how good they are against one spe­cific type of threat (IEDs), they have their lim­i­ta­tions & are actu­ally NOT the right vehi­cles for many sit­u­a­tions (to the point that they are more of a lia­bil­ity than an asset).
    2) Due to the “peace div­i­dend” from the end of the cold war the VAST major­ity of our cur­rent weapons sys­tems were pro­cured in the 1980’s! While you can upgrade weapons sys­tems with newer tech­nol­ogy there is a limit to how much you can do so & still keep pace. PLUS weapons sys­tems, no mat­ter how much you upgrade them, can only remain viable (eco­nom­i­cally &/​or phys­i­cally) to a point before they HAVE to be replaced.
    ***
    ger­gyrrab,
    We NEED the F-​​22 because our exist­ing F-​​15s will not be able to fly for­ever & are over­due for replace­ment (the YOUNGEST F-​​15C/​Ds are over 20 years old & quickly approach­ing DOUBLE their orig­i­nally intended air­frame flight hour lives). Despite what some may want you to think, air supe­ri­or­ity (air dom­i­nace) is still & will con­tinue to be VERY impor­tant.
    Actually we have MORE than enough money to gibve our armed force all they want & more, it is just that those who con­trol the purse strings won’t give them the money & instead spend it on pork. Case in point: the $30 bil­lion used to bailout Bear Stearns could pro­cure 200 F-​​22s! Do you not real­ize that US defense spend­ing as a % of GDP has been at his­toric lows?
    http://​www​.truthand​pol​i​tics​.org/​m​i​l​i​t​a​r​y​-​r​e​l​a​t​i​v​e​-​s​i​z​e​.​php
    It only goes to 2003 but does give a good idea of how COMPARATIVELY lit­tle we have been spend­ing of defense.
    http://​lib​er​tatemamo​.files​.word​press​.com/​2​0​0​8​/​0​3​/​p​i​c​t​u​r​e​-​3​.​jpg
    http://​www​.truthand​pol​i​tics​.org/​m​i​l​i​t​a​r​y​-​r​e​l​a​t​i​v​e​-​s​i​z​e​.​php
    Small but goes to 2007.

    Reply
  16. Brad says:
    May 14, 2008 at 12:40 am

    pfcem to the res­cue of com­mon sense. Our lia­bil­i­ties for Medicare alone are higher than 40 TRILLION dol­lars, but some­how we can­not afford a cou­ple of bil­lion to replace our fighter fleet.
    Let’s cut the garbage out before we cut our own throats. And don’t give me the peace­ful rise of China rou­tine; when they start act­ing like a peace­ful coun­try, I’ll start believ­ing it.

    Reply
  17. Narfburger says:
    May 14, 2008 at 7:30 am

    As long as this some­how results in our guys get­ting 416’s, Dragonskin armor, and Multicam, I really couldn’t care less whether or not Gates is off his rocker in terms of mil­i­tary phi­los­o­phy or not.
    The Rifleman is the heart of this war, just as he’s the heart of every war, and we’ve ignored his needs and plight for too long.

    Reply
  18. vince says:
    May 14, 2008 at 10:08 am

    I agree with the finance argu­ment. There is plenty of money, it just takes some guts to put the money where it needs to be. I fail to see the need to be spend­ing a bil­lion or two a year on UN peace­keep­ing sup­port when most of the mis­sions are over­whelm­ing fail­ures. I don’t think we need to be bail­ing out idiots in upside down mort­gages that were fool­ish with their money, finan­cial nat­ural selec­tion to me. With social secu­rity a mess can­di­dates talk­ing about uni­ver­sal health­care make me fever­ish. We have plenty of money to buy every new (proven/​good) sys­tem we need. We have all the money we need to set our Army and Marines at a good level.

    Reply
  19. slntax says:
    May 14, 2008 at 10:26 am

    i cant believe this. gates is right when will you guys get it thru your head WE ARE IN 2 WARS NOW AND WE ARE NOT WINNING. and every­one wants talk about the next war? what about the wars we have now? all the stuff you need to win 4 gen war already exist. thats the prob­lem for all those gen­er­als that dont want to fight the wars we have now is they cant get kick­backs for some over­priced high tech pos when they retire and work for Lockheed, boe­ing, and gdls. all you guys that believe that gates is wrong i ask you how many days have so spent on the ground in the 2 war zones we have going on?

    Reply
  20. Hooded swan says:
    May 14, 2008 at 12:09 pm

    So what is Gates really talk­ing about here? It’s what you think the future is going to be like.
    The polit­i­cal real­ity is that no mat­ter which party con­trols Congress there will not be a big increase in defense spend­ing beyond the 1 that has already hap­pened. There will not be a draft. So when the econ­omy is good again, you’re going to have a hard time recruit­ing enough peo­ple to main­tain 1,500,000 in all 4 ser­vices, let alone expand.
    So what do YOU think the future will be like? A “big” war against a coun­try whose econ­omy is built around sell­ing con­sumer goods to, well, us? Or a dozen small wars across the globe, all going on simul­ta­ne­ously?
    You have to ready for any­thing that hap­pens, but within the bounds of what you can afford, both in money & in peo­ple, you bet­ter focus on the likely.

    Reply
  21. Tom Fitzpatrick in Seattle says:
    May 14, 2008 at 2:22 pm

    If the military-​​industrial com­plex that’s been run­ning things for the past 50+ yrs had been in charge in the 1930’s we’d have been screwed, blued and tatooed in WW2. They couldn’t have fielded the weapons we needed in time, and we couldn’t have paid for them. I don’t know if Gates is cor­rect or not, but some of the calls here for increased mil­i­tary spend­ing seem a lit­tle sim­plis­tic. Let’s see some smarter spend­ing first.

    Reply
  22. pfcem says:
    May 14, 2008 at 2:30 pm

    slntax,
    Gates is WRONG when you get it thru your head the actual sit­u­a­tion, aka the cur­rent enemy/​conflict IS NOT a major mil­i­tary threat! And that the changes that would do the most to improve the cur­rent sit­u­a­tion are MUCH more in the realm of policy/​procedure/​tactics than equip­ment.
    Actually we are fight­ing ONE war on many fronts & we ARE win­ning on the two most active/​visible fronts (Afghanistan & Iraq).
    NOBODY is say­ing that we do not need to con­cen­trate on the cur­rent con­flict &/​or that we do not need to fight the cur­rent con­flict dif­fer­ently than “con­ven­tional” con­flict. But WE DO NOT need to weaken/​sacrifice our abil­ity to fight a major “con­ven­tional” con­flict to bet­ter fight the cur­rent one.
    And don’t for­get that one of the pri­mary rea­sons why we are cur­rently fight­ing a “low inten­sity” con­flict in Iraq now is because we WON the “high inten­sity” con­flict in 2003. Or that one of the rea­sons why we so hand­ily won that “high inten­sity” con­flict was because of the supe­ri­or­ity of our “con­ven­tional” forces (due in no small part to hav­ing defeated the Iraq forces in 1991).
    In fact THE biggest prob­lem we have had in the cur­rent con­flict is that in rec­og­niz­ing that we need to fight it dif­fer­ently we (the politi­cians, not the sol­diers) have been reluctant/​unwilling to actu­ally FIGHT. If we had done what we SHOULD have in 2003/​2004, we could have been where we are today in 2004/​2005. Instead we half-​​assed it for 4 years before we (the politi­cians, not the sol­diers) finally got the will to do what we SHOULD have been doing.
    While we do cur­rently have “all the stuff you need to win 4 gen war”, the major­ity of it is now more than 20 years old & WILL be (if not already) in need of replace­ment. And not hav­ing the stuff you need to win 4 gen war will be MANY TIMES more costly in a pos­si­ble (or as his­tory tells us LIKELY) future 4 gen war then not hav­ing the “right” stuff for the cur­rent con­flict.
    Note that much of the “right stuff” that would improve the cur­rent con­flict would do so for a future 4 gen war as well but SOME would not. Things like a more effec­tive rifle/​carbine car­tridge, an actual armored fighting/​security vehi­cle instead of using HMMWVs for what they were not built for, a com­par­a­tively inex­pen­sive littoral-​​oriented com­bat ves­sel, more empha­sis on CAS, NFS…

    Reply
  23. Brad says:
    May 14, 2008 at 2:45 pm

    “And don’t for­get that one of the pri­mary rea­sons why we are cur­rently fight­ing a “low inten­sity” con­flict in Iraq now is because we WON the “high inten­sity” con­flict in 2003.“
    About spells it out in black and white, good luck con­vinc­ing the Ron Paul Revolutionaries.

    Reply
  24. GI Zhou says:
    May 14, 2008 at 4:56 pm

    From an Aussien per­spec­tive the role of defence is pro­tec­tion of your national inter­ests with the count­try first. The U.S can deploy any­where because it has the biggest goril­las to do the job. Gates is just try­ing to cut the bud­get. With F-​​22s you OWN the sky, so can pur­sue the ground bat­tle with the need for only lim­ited ground based air defense assets. That saves a squil­lion — ask the Russians how much they invested in ground based air defence dur­ing the Cold War and the oppor­tu­nity cost of those DEFENSIVE sys­tems.
    Keep those Ford class air­craft car­ri­ers and DDG51s com­ing. Why is China invest­ing so much in defen­sive anti-​​carrier sys­tems? Because it fears what those bad boys can do. Problem is for China all the sup­port sys­tems on board its escort­ing ships and on the car­rier eg the E2D Hawkeye. Did did I men­tion the pos­si­bil­ity of a SDB equipped B-​​2 or F-​​22 fly­ing nearby or the Ohio class SSN with all those Tomahawk cruise mis­iles lurk­ing off the coast. Any way you look at it, its the big­ger and bet­ter sys­tem sys­tems that allow the US to pur­sue its inter­ests. Cutting them down is a false econ­omy.
    There is a need a smaller lit­toral ves­sel but you just OWN the sea with the cur­rent sytems. Look at the updated ANZAC frigates as a guide to a lit­toral sys­tem with excel­lent sen­sors and fire­power on a smaller hull.
    Cheers,
    GI Zhou

    Reply
  25. Roy Smith says:
    May 14, 2008 at 6:31 pm

    I just fin­ished watch­ing the movie “Cloverfield.” With the cur­rent state of our military,if a “mon­ster” actu­ally came out of the ocean & threat­ened New York City,would our mil­i­tary even be able to piss it off,much less “slightly” irri­tate it(come on,I under­stand that the plot of these movies is that con­ven­tional weapons can­not seem to hurt these monsters,but I’m just say­ing that our mil­i­tary would have prob­lems with Barney.“I love you,you love me.….”)?

    Reply
  26. KZ says:
    May 14, 2008 at 6:52 pm

    Gates is my hero. Finally, some com­mon sense. We don’t need Buck Rogers. We need reli­able tech­nol­ogy that works. Now.

    Reply
  27. CTR1(SW) says:
    May 14, 2008 at 7:19 pm

    For all of you folks who want to sac­ri­fice the future at the expense of today I have a ques­tion. Would you drive a 30 year old car on which you are con­stantly spend­ing thou­sands in repairs when you could pur­chase a brand new one?
    THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT YOU ARE ASKING THE AF TO DO WITH THE F-​​15 AND F-​​16!
    Imagine being an AF pilot in a plane older than you are.
    p.s. I am cur­rently dri­ving a vin­tage 1990 car with 170k miles. Some prob­lems are not worth fix­ing and some can­not be fixed. I would by newer in a minute, if I could.

    Reply
  28. Lanning says:
    May 14, 2008 at 8:38 pm

    The bot­tom line is not ade­quately fund­ing it’s mil­i­tary. We have to be able to fight both con­ven­tional war and a uncon­ven­tional war simu­ta­neously . As for peo­ple who scoff about a poten­tial war with China. Well there were peo­ple who thought a war with japan would not hap­pen either. Do you think that the Chinese are invest­ing huge amounts of money and resources in sys­tems to deny us the sea, for no rea­son? Think People. Special Operations are not going to win that one. We need both capa­bil­i­ties. It boils down to hav­ing the polit­i­cal courage to cul­ti­vate the nec­es­sary resources. Gee, i seem to remem­ber in 1985 we were about 6.5% of GDP on defense. The time is now.

    Reply
  29. Cole says:
    May 15, 2008 at 3:38 pm

    Lanning,
    How is China going to deny us the sea with 5 knot sub­marines? How will a coun­try that size sur­vive with­out oil should they become the aggres­sor and WE deny them sea-​​shipped oil. How could China invade any dis­tant pow­er­ful neighbor…whereas in the days of 6.5% GDP spend­ing, the far-​​more pow­er­ful Soviets could sim­ply motor across their bor­ders and be in the heart of Europe.
    Near as I can tell, we can fight two wars right now…cuz we are doing it. Is the new stan­dard to fight 3 wars?
    I scoff at war with China because they want our money…and want to mimic our might and stand­ing in the world. It’s a keep­ing face thing.

    Reply
  30. Cole says:
    May 15, 2008 at 3:43 pm

    pfcem,
    Our cur­rent foe CAN hurt us because they are the type of ter­ror­ists who would put a blow a small nuke in a coastal U.S. city in a heartbeat…killing mil­lions to double/​quadruple the WWII death total in one strike.
    No nation-​​state would ever do that because they know what the response would be.

    Reply
  31. Cole says:
    May 15, 2008 at 3:53 pm

    BTW pfcem, you do not need F-​​22s to fight 4th gen­er­a­tion warfare…that’s for 3rd gen­er­a­tion war.
    It cracked me up to watch History chan­nel the other day where authors of a “future” war­fare book had 3 sce­nar­ios in the next 20 years where hordes of enemy planes sud­denly attacked for no appar­ent rea­son with no expla­na­tion of goals or intent.
    One of the sce­nar­ios had F-​​22s fir­ing mul­ti­ple AMRAAM with 2 “B-​​1R” fir­ing salvoes of addi­tional AMRRAM missiles…kind of like cur­rent F-​​15s/​F-​​16s/​F-​​18s could do from well behind the F-​​22/​F-​​35s when fed tar­gets.
    Needless to say we won.…against the entire top– of-​​the-​​line fighter fleets of 95% of our poten­tial adversaries.…about 30–50 good aircraft.…cuz that’s all they can afford/​train/​maintain. The rest is junk.

    Reply
  32. Cole says:
    May 15, 2008 at 7:00 pm

    “While we do cur­rently have “all the stuff you need to win 4 gen war”, the major­ity of it is now more than 20 years old & WILL be (if not already) in need of replace­ment. And not hav­ing the stuff you need to win 4 gen war will be MANY TIMES more costly in a pos­si­ble (or as his­tory tells us LIKELY) future 4 gen war then not hav­ing the “right” stuff for the cur­rent con­flict.”\
    —————————
    Sorry if I mis­in­ter­preted the above. I’m all for the F-​​22 and F-35…just not too many of them. If you own fewer, you can add more bells and whis­tles to them at less cost.…and still have money left over for other committments.

    Reply
  33. Cole says:
    May 15, 2008 at 7:15 pm

    I see that in 1980 we bought 112 F-​​15s for 2.676 bil­lion which is 23.8 mil­lion a piece.
    I see from the GDP link that the Jan 2008 GDP was 11.7 Trillion and the Jan 1980 GDP was 5.2 trillion…a dif­fer­ence of a fac­tor of 2.25. So 2.25 times $23.8 mil­lion equals $53.55 mil­lion per airplane.…not 160 million.…

    Reply
  34. pfcem says:
    May 15, 2008 at 10:45 pm

    Cole,
    Try read­ing your sources cor­rectly. We did not pro­dure 112 F-​​15 in 1980 for $2.676 bil­lion.
    As of Jan 1980, SALES of the F-​​15s TO OTHER NATIONS totaled 112 air­craft at a cost of $2.6758 bil­lion (no indi­ca­tion as to if that total is con­stant dol­lars or just adding up the num­bers). In 1980, the US pro­cured 60 F-​​15.
    http://​www​.afa​.org/​E​d​O​p​/​N​a​t​i​o​n​a​l​_​J​o​u​r​n​a​l​_​C​h​a​r​t​s​.​pdf
    You can’t build new F-​​15s for 2.607 infla­tion only adjust­ment from 1980 to 2008 today. And of course if we were procur­ing F-​​22s at the rate we pro­cured F-​​15s, they would cost A LOT less than they do at the rate we have been procur­ing them at.
    Somehow I knew you wouldn’t get what the data from the link I pro­vided is say­ing. Those num­bers are 2000 Constant Dollars adjusted. Take away the adjust­ment & you get…
    $05,221.3 in 2000 dol­lars = $02,498.46 in 1980 dol­lars
    $11,693.1 in 2000 dol­lars = $14,587.38 in 2008 dol­lars
    So while infla­tion alone results in a dif­fer­ence between 1980 & 2008 of a fac­tor of 2.607, GDP rose by a fac­tor of 5.839 (2.24 MORE than infla­tion alone). As I said, income has increased & at a rate GREATER than inflation.

    Reply
  35. sanity says:
    May 16, 2008 at 4:07 am

    You want to spend MORE money? The US spends as much on defense as every other coun­try com­bined, and we need to spend more? Guess what, right now your Chinese dop­pel­ganger is say­ing that China must spend more on defense because they are vastly out­spent by the US. Same with Russia. Same with India. Same with Iran. If you and they both got your way, well then, you would now need to spend even more on the mil­i­tary to counter these new threats. That ends only with every­one spend­ing every dol­lar they make on mil­i­tary items. How much are you will­ing to spend, when the US already spends so much? We spend as much of the GDP on defense as we did in the Cold War, and don’t tell me that we now face com­pa­ra­ble threats now. The threats we face now are triv­ial in com­par­i­son. We don’t need F-​​22s. We don’t need FCS. We don’t need car­ri­ers. We didn’t need to invade Iraq, and yes that was obvi­ous at the time even with­out the resources avail­able to the fed­eral government.

    Reply
  36. Charlie says:
    May 16, 2008 at 4:41 am

    Open the bag and let the worms loose!
    If long range plan­ning and pro­cure­ment is not done, there will be a repeat of past mis­takes all over again. The past and cur­rent sys­tem is too slow to respond prop­erly to “new/​changed require­ments” iden­ti­fied by actual war expe­ri­ence.
    In addi­tion, about a decade ago, the mil­i­tary, for var­i­ous rea­sons, scrapped a lot of “obso­lete” spares. These were needed to sus­tain older weapon sys­tems through the planned and unplanned length of the remain­ing sys­tem life. Usage for plan­ning & dis­posal was based upon peace­time usage rates. (Idiotic, don’t you think?) So, when the cur­rent deba­cles stretched out to mul­ti­ple years, the spares are, nat­u­rally, inad­e­quate. The mil­i­tary now faces the dual require­ments for old sys­tem spares, and, at the same time, pro­vid­ing new sys­tems and spares, since many of the old sys­tems are past “end of life” by decades.
    And, there is never enough fund­ing to go around.

    Reply
  37. Cole says:
    May 16, 2008 at 9:09 am

    pfcem:“Try read­ing your sources cor­rectly. We did not pro­dure 112 F-​​15 in 1980 for $2.676 bil­lion.
    As of Jan 1980, SALES of the F-​​15s TO OTHER NATIONS totaled 112 air­craft at a cost of $2.6758 bil­lion (no indi­ca­tion as to if that total is con­stant dol­lars or just adding up the num­bers). In 1980, the US pro­cured 60 F-​​15.“
    ———————————–
    I was get­ting hur­ried out the door and did not read the global secu­rity link cor­rectly.
    Nevertheless, do we not typ­i­cally sell fight­ers to for­eign nations for the same or more than what we pay for them? So were the 60 pur­chased in 1980 not run­ning at about that price?
    Unlike you, I’m not a comptroller/​economist/​engineer, but do have sev­eral suc­cess­ful semes­ters of cal­cu­lus under my belt. Common sense math would tell you that GDP includes con­sumer spend­ing for rent and invest­ment spend­ing includes monies spent on new housing…both of which have risen much much faster than infla­tion since 1980. The same is true for med­ical expen­di­tures. Government spend­ing is another part of GDP…so you are effec­tively giv­ing credit to the econ­omy when the gov­ern­ment goes on a spend­ing spree as it tends to do as of late.
    The true mea­sure is infla­tion related to con­sumer prices for typical…not atyp­i­cal items. True, if we pro­duced F-​​22s at the same rate that we did F-​​15s the prices would come down. Suspect it would only mean we are pay­ing twice as much for a fighter in 2008 that we did in 1980 in con­stant dol­lars. Even the F-​​35 will cost more than a F-​​15 in con­stant dol­lars.
    There is noth­ing wrong with these air­craft cost­ing so much more if you are get­ting a much bet­ter prod­uct. But know­ing you are get­ting that bet­ter prod­uct means you must acknowl­edge that you need far fewer to accom­plish the same job.
    750 F-​​15s were ade­quate for the Soviet threat. 250 or so F-​​22 would be ade­quate for the Soviet threat if it still existed given the aircraft’s superb capa­bil­i­ties. But we don’t face any­thing like a Soviet threat for the next 20 years dur­ing which time we will also pro­duce huge num­bers of F-​​35s to back up the F-​​22s.

    Reply
  38. pfcem says:
    May 16, 2008 at 3:59 pm

    san­ity,
    Get your facts cor­rect.
    http://​www​.truthand​pol​i​tics​.org/​m​i​l​i​t​a​r​y​-​r​e​l​a​t​i​v​e​-​s​i​z​e​.​p​h​p​#​r​e​f-1

    Reply
  39. pfcem says:
    May 16, 2008 at 4:44 pm

    Cole,
    Yes defense spend­ing is part of the GDP but defense spend­ing as a % of the GDP is DOWN. Even if you INCLUDE the sup­pli­men­tary spend­ing on the “wars” in Iraq & Afghanistan. Defense spend­ing as a % of the GDP was 4.9% in 1980. For the FY2009 bud­get a mear 3.43% exclud­ing addi­tional war fund­ing & 4.73% includ­ing all war/​homeland secu­rity fund­ing. If we were spend­ing the same % on defense as we did in 1980 the defense bud­get would be $736 bil­lion instead of $515 bil­lion (or $711 bil­lion includ­ing all addi­tional war/​homeland secu­rity. fund­ing). Just as another exam­ple, the 8.1% of 1970 would be $1216 bil­lion!
    No, know­ing you are get­ting that bet­ter prod­uct DOES NOT mean you must acknowl­edge that you need far fewer to accom­plish the same job. Not when the “job” is defense against a threat which itself has got­ten & is get­ting bet­ter prod­ucts…
    True we don’t need 750 F-​​22s (we only NEED about half that many) BUT I love how you point out that our F-​​22s will be backed up by F-​​35s but con­ve­niently neglect that our F-​​15s have been backed up by F-16s…OR that what peo­ple like you who bring up the F-​​35 when mak­ing some BS claim about how few F-​​22s we need that our F-​​35s will/​would be plenty busy doing their own jobs so if you are going to use F-​​35s to do the F-22’s jobs you will need more F-​​35s (& more F-​​35s than F-​​22s).

    Reply
  40. Skred says:
    May 17, 2008 at 10:54 pm

    Let’s see, F15’s falling out of the sky; F16’s being used up; F22’s and F35’s not ready for com­bat and we are involved in two ground wars where we need air-​​to-​​ground sup­port.
    Where are the new A-10’s?

    Reply
  41. stoka says:
    April 4, 2009 at 4:10 am

    It should be remem­bered that the US does not entirely have to go it alone with respect to poten­tial future con­fronta­tions. Allies like Australia should also be equipped with the best pos­si­ble air­craft (F22) to extend the sphere of influ­ence of the US, as well as to pro­tect the Pacific region. The USAF and RAAF can and should work co jointly to dis­cour­age regional adven­tur­ism. Australian’s have stood shoul­der to shoul­der with the US through var­i­ous con­flicts and our cul­ture, val­ues and demo­c­ra­tic prin­ci­ples mir­ror your own. The US should deploy large num­bers of the F22 and should also export it to close and trusted allies. Failure to do so is likely to result in future catastrophe.

    Reply

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