I’ve been trolling around trying to find some inside dope and analysis on the comparison of how Georgia’s troops have handled the Russian invasion and how Russian troops have stacked up against Georgia’s U.S.-trained forces.
So far, the best one I can find is a blog entry from the New York Times authored by an experienced Russian expert who speaks a lot more Russian than me and delved into two separate Russian blogs that have some unique analysis.
In an interview posted on the Kreml.org Web site yesterday, Anatoly Tsyganok, a retired officer who heads the center for military forecasting at the Moscow Institute of Political and Military Analysis, argued that Russian forces had performed impressively quickly and extraordinarily well.
But in an article carried on the anti-Kremlin Web site Forum.msk.ru, Maksim Kalashnikov, who writes frequently on military affairs, suggests that the Russian militarys performance in this first war between former Soviet republics and in the first Russian conflict with a regular army since 1969 was not impressive.
For his part, Tsyganok points to three things to justify his conclusion that the Russian military prepared well. First, he says, the Georgians had a good plan, one based on Pentagon plans for operations in Serbia in the 1990s, and thus presented a challenge to Russian forces out of proportion to their numbers.
Second, he notes, the Russian military responded quickly. No one expected that Russia would so quickly become involved in an armed conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia and thereby undercut Georgian plans for a lightning-fast war. But political Moscow made the decision and the Russian military responded incredibly fast…
…And third, again despite expectations in Tbilisi and elsewhere, Russian forces in the Northern Caucasus were ready to move. They left their bases less than five hours after the order was given, and they did not suffer the kind of losses many in Georgia had thought they would. They achieved their objectives promptly.
One reason for this success, Tsyganok says, is that the 58th Army had just completed a few days earlier the Caucasus 2008 exercises and thus was ready to take the field especially against an opponent so much smaller and more poorly equipped than itself.
There are more than 100,000 Russian troops in the North Caucasus military district, with some 620 tanks, 200 armored personal carriers, and 875 pieces of artillery. While not all of the men or materiel were available for the operation in Georgia, he notes, enough were to overwhelm the 35,000-man Georgian army with its 160 tanks.
It’s a typical Russian/Soviet version of “shock and awe,” but I read some quotes from another article with Russian troops wondering aloud if what they were doing was “right.” Aside from the morale issues in the Russian army, it seems there’s been some weakness in its tactical acumen. While they pulled out the big guns by streaming reactive armor-laden tanks through Georgian streets, their air forces couldn’t seem to pinpoint certain strategic targets. Remember they tried to bomb the pipeline at a Georgian Black Sea port and missed.
Kalashnikov [the anti-Kremlin blogger] does not so much challenge the points Tsyganok makes as advances other considerations that he believes suggest that the Russian militarys performance in Georgia, while victorious so far, is far from the level that Moscow propagandists and many observers have been claiming.
According to Kalashnikov, Moscow has had six years to prepare for a response to or an intervention against Georgia but did practically nothing to get ready for either eventuality. Nowhere is that failure more obvious, he says, than in the failure of Russian forces to use air power to knock out key Georgian institutions and especially Georgian artillery.
The Russian forces did not fly a sufficient number of sorties to do either, he continues, and they lacked the pilotless drones that could have allowed Russian artillery to attack Georgian targets more effectively. And that meant that Russian forces suffered more delay and losses from Georgian artillery than was necessary.
Instead of relying on airport to deal a knockout blow to the enemy, Kalashnikov says, Russian commanders relied on the notion that if Moscow introduces tanks in sufficient number, the opposition will simply raise its hands in surrender even though that did not work in Afghanistan in the 1980s or in Chechnya in 1995.
We’ll see if the current “cease fire” is for real. Seems like the West is in a bind on this one and it might turn out to be a political setback for former Soviet states who want to join NATO. What would NATO do? Nothing, I bet.
– Christian
Love how everyone is talking about the “russian” invasion.
How would the US react if Cuba tried to take back gitmo? Would there be a measured response? Or would we use strategic bombers?
Independence for Kosovo, not for Ostetia.
>What would NATO do? Nothing, I bet.
Where do the supplies to NATO reach Afghanistan from? What do you think would happen if EU’s hope of BTC oil pipeline vanishes and force EU under more pressure for more dependence on Russian oil as a result. Do you want your supplies to fly through an unreliable and unstable country with anti-Americanism that may always shut off supplies like Turkey and Pakistan? What would happen if the supplies that reach Afghanistan could be threaten by an installed pro-Russian regime in Georgia. Do you want to see Europe to depend on more Russian oil, and through a new Georgian regime as a puppet of Russia? Do you want to see Europe surrender to Russia’s blackmail of using energy exports, and force Europe away from US, ISOLATING America much more from international affairs?
Here is the issue as I understand it.
Facts:
–Georgia is the third largest supplier of troops in Iraq.
–Georgia is trying to get into NATO
–After the fall of the USSR and the reformation of Georgia, two areas tried to remain independent.
–Russia wants to show they have military power and are willing to roll in the tanks, i.e. prague spring.
–Russia wants to stop Georgia’s bid to join NATO by causing tension within the Georgian boarders.
–Russia rolled columns of armor well into the country. Outside the separatist regions. I was expecting to see a larger Russia this morning when I woke up but there was a cease fire.
The Gitmo example is flawed, this would be more like Cuba invading Florida to “protect” the Cubans in Miami. South Ossetia is part of the sovereign nation of Georgia not Russia. The Russian’s invaded another country, they did not attack a country that has a base in Russia.
Big differance.
Wondering about the number of downed planes on Russian side. Georgians say its 19, while russians have admitted to only four. Whats the real story ?
Pedestrian,
Many of us know the stakes to Russia taking control of Georgia and having more influence over natural resources and lines of supply/communication to the region. Christian’s just saying NATO won’t start WWIII over it. So far we (NATO) have said “stop it pretty please” in 4 or 5 languages. That’s it. And that’s probably all we’re going to do. Europe won’t endanger trade with Russia over this and unless we’re prepared to shoot down the Russian Air Force, there’s not a whole lot we can leverage.
Jeff is 1000% correct.!!!
Putin sent Russian troops into another country under the guise of “protecting Russian citizens & S. Ossetians” loyal to Russia from the Sovereign government there.
Would Putin have liked NATO troops in Chechnya to protect those loyal to Chechnya instead of Russia.?
This is just another Soviet/KGB move to elimate a democracy on their door step.
All the former Soviet states better commit this tragedy to memory & learn well from it lest they be next, now is the time to arm yourselves & protect your newly won freedom & liberties, dont let these people in Russia gain anymore nations thru further deception,fear & intimidation.
Putin has now showed his true self ( the KGB/Stalin rule with an iron fist side he’s been hiding).
As for NATO I suggest kicking Russia out of any G8
membership/delete Russia from the favorite nation list/ban travel/ start enforcing sanctions of all kinds & seize their assets for starters.
If Nato does not do these things it will only trigger more aggression from Russia.
Getting tough on these clods now will only add strenght to Democracy, doing nothing only gives courage to Russia. Remember Hitler & the phony Sudatenland crisis in 1938 led to invasion of Poland not even a year later, when western democracies turned a blind eye & a deaf ear to aggression. I guess Putin/Russia figures if it worked in 1938 why not now history always repeats itself.
Joe Cottone sr
Russia can do absolutely nothing about Serbia & Kosovo because NATO completely surrounds both nations & could easily throw up a blockade to keep Russia & her troops,or even weapons,out.
Russia is maneuvering her troops in the Caucasus & Central Asia to eventually throw up a blockade of Afghanistan. Tit for tat.
Maybe the cease fire will hold & we can all go back to slumbering. George W. Bush will win the Nobel Peace prize for bring peace & safety to the world.
you know what i find sad? not that russia has revealed itself to still be a communist stalinit country where the only rights ppl have are those the state gives you.
Not that the MSM collectivly yawned at the invasion of a small country by a large imperialistic superpower which has shown little intrest to civilian deaths.(yes ok i know im not realy shocked either i mean communist have to stick together)
ITS THAT NO HIPPIES FORMED HUMAN SHEILDS TO PROTECT GEORGIAN TROOPS!!!.…oh wait forgot that hippies are pretty much commies anyways oh well…
maybe georgia wants some F22S?
Headshot,
That’s because we don’t trust Russia’s motivations.
Saakashvili was crazy to think he could present Russia with a fait accompli. This would be true even if the Russians didn’t know this was being prepared, which is unlikely; I agree with the post remarking on the probable depth of Russian intelligence penetration of the Georgian government. There might be some good to be had, though, if this can be used to confront European governments’ delusion that war can no longer happen to them. Along the East European borders with Russia, this should significantly enhance the standing of those political groups that see Russian aggression as a real possibility.
“This is just another Soviet/KGB move to elimate a democracy on their door step.“
Except the part where Georgia is a democracy, the other parties where beaten up by the police, all the observers claimed fraud… things like that…
Why you critice russia for having a president that knows how the state, the military, the burecracy and the international relations work (a spy)?
If someone has to be president, better someone with experienced, the US has an OIL MANAGER as president, is that better?
The russians went to war with a 90% support of their population.
The US goes to war with 90% of their population against it! (and with no causa belli, and faking intellince…)
The NATO countries have an aproval of their government below historical margins, the US has never ever in it’s history have less trust and more hatred towards its president, its congress and its military, maybe in the civil War that Lincoln started to protect its businessman.
In russia people are happy with their governments, not all of them of course, but the econmy is going better, no to reccesion like NATO, and people see how EEUU is circling Russia with military bases, how it invades countries, destabilicies international peace, so, they see what you are doing and ask for someone even harder, you are lukcy the moderate Putin is there who didn’t even ordered to capure the Georgian president as it should have and it’s generals and staff and be brought to justice.
I can’t believe Russia is kicking Georgia’s butt. Georgia was picked no. 1 in the coaches pre-season poll.
Hey question your English is pretty good for a Russian
This song is dedicated to you,Georgia!!!!
“UNITED STATES THEME SONG
Mr. trouble never hangs around,
when he hears this Mighty sound,
Here we come to save the day!
That means that the United States are on the way!
Yes sir, when there is a wrong to right,
the United States will join the fight!
On the sea or on the land,
they’ve got the situation well in hand!
We know that when there’s danger, we’ll never dispair;
Because we know that when there’s danger they are there…
On the land on the sea in the air.
We’re not worrying at all
We just listen for their call
“Here we come to save the day!“
That means that the United States are on the way.
When there is a wrong to right,
the United States will joint the fight
“Here we come to save the day!“
That means that the United States are on the way!“
WOO HOO!!!!
Some photos from South Ossetia/Georgia:
http://lsd-25.ru/2008/08/14/voyna-v-yuzhnoy-osetii-89-fotografiy-arkadiya-babchenko/
You know who impresses me, Condi Rice. She has dealt equally well with both European and Arab conflicts as a mediator.
I think she should run for Vice President with McCain. Heck, it may give us a reason to vote for McCain…
I think if I were isreal, or any other former soviot state right now, I WOULD be wondering just how much SUPPORT the US would give us in a time of need. THE NEW U.S.A. MOTTO: “EMPOWER THE ENEMY, SCREW YOUR FRIENDS.” I REALLY DON’T KNOW WHAT WERE FIGHTING WARS FOR TO SET UP DEMACRATIC STATES WHEN WE WON’T HELP THEM IN A TIME OF NEED.
Well david, the US is not supporting democracy, is overthrowing it. Their allies include Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait (remember kuwait, you ‘free’ them while keeping them under a dictatorship) the new ones are taliban-democracies like afganistan and if you think georgia was a democracy you should read history, there was massive fraud, expelled observers and the ‘president’ made himself president with a disputed-corrupted 33% of the so-called vote.
He has been beating the opposition since he took power, the opposition are screaming and the moment basic electricy and infrastrucure are repaired, they are going to throw him to the sea, or even judging him for treason and crimes against humanity, that’s who you are protecting and that’s what you called democracy.