The massive Russian air, ground, and naval assault against the country of Georgia is certainly reminiscent of the earlier Soviet assaults against East Germany and Hungry, and, to some degree, the Russian campaign in Chechnya. But there are major differences in the cause of the current conflict and in the world political-military situation from those earlier military operations.
At this writing there were strong indications that the odd situation in the Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia could have only led to conflict. The border provinces appear to have had Russian peacekeepers in them to protect the interests of the local populations that include many Russian citizens and sympathizers. According to Russian sources, Georgian troops attacked those Russian troops, although the exact circumstances of the initial exchange are unknown.
In response, after a brief delay, Russian forces invaded the two provinces, taking control after inflicting heavy civilian casualties — some press reports cited approximately 2,000 deaths. But the Russian troops, carried in armored personnel carriers and supported by aircraft and helicopters, continued into Georgia, reportedly coming within 12 miles of the Georgian capital of Tbilisi.
In addition to civilian (and military casualties), Georgia has suffered perhaps 100,000 people being uprooted, and severe damage to towns and cities.
Georgian troops — trained and partially equipped by the United States — were unable to withstand the Russian onslaught. As this blog was written it appears that the Russian government has accepted the truce, brokered in part by the French government.
Why did the Kremlin order the land-air-sea assault on its weaker neighbor? Obviously, the Russian regime is concerned about South Ossetia and Abkhazia and their large Russian populations. There were certainly other factors. American influence in Georgia has been increasing over the past few years; when the Russian assault began there were 35 U.S. civilian contractors and almost 100 military personnel in Georgia to help train the army. More than 1,000 U.S. troops — including reservists and national guardsmen — were recently in Georgia for a joint exercise.
Further, Georgia has been seeking full membership in NATO. The continued expansion of NATO since the end of the Cold War, especially including Eastern European states, has particularly been a concern of the Russian government. This situation has been exacerbated by recent U.S. proposals to build advanced X-band ballistic missile detection radar in the Czech Republic and base ten interceptor missiles in Poland. The stated rationale for these installations is to protect Western European countries from long-range missiles launched by rogue states, including Iran. The perspective from the Kremlin, however, is that these defenses — and other U.S.-sponsored military activities — as well as the missile defenses are part of an American campaign to encircle the Russian state.
Thus, some Western officials and analysts see the Russian action in Georgia, beyond the obvious intent of protecting Russian citizens and sympathizers in the border provinces, as a clear message to the United States that further expansion American political-military influence in Eastern Europe will not be tolerated.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government is attempting to gain support for political actions by Western European countries and the United Nations, hopefully to censor Russia. There is no possibility that the United States will take military action against Russia, or immediately rush to the support of the shattered Georgian army.
thanks for reporting everything that is already known. albeit after the entire conflict. keeping out all details but general death counts helps my small mind understand it easier too. *sarcasm*
I can’t help thinking that the reporting of this tragic affair has been grossly one-sided (certainly here in the UK) and, just in case anyone had missed it, Georgia was the aggressor. President Mikheil Saakashvili made a very grave error in underestimating the Russians — relying heavily on his belief that Georgia was already in some sort of safe haven of Western support. If anything, the uncompromising reaction by the Russians was entirely predictable (and characteristically savage).
The waters have become muddied by the excesses of the S. Ossetian militia elements and pro-Russian civilians. This, combined with the larger global political aims of the Russian leadership (that is, building the Federation into a regenerated superpower) and their wish to stamp out any thoughts of similar actions by other former Soviet states, has blurred that original fact. The fact that Georgia took it upon itself to enrage the bear, in the full knowledge of the retaliation it could expect, calculating that the end result would be a strengthening of ties with the West. And in this, they might well have succeeded. But at what cost?
I think that Russia,rather than build up her weapons systems,would rather be a joker in the mix concerning separatist movements.
Just like China,she’ll try to find proxies to fight her wars for her.
We were naive to think that we could just get Georgia & the Ukraine to join NATO & Russia would just let it happen.The Ukraine & Moldova both have separatist movements that Russia can & will exploit. Russia used Armenia to destabilise Azerbaijan in the breakaway Nogorno-Karabakh region. Russia is using ethnic Russians to destabilise & keep in turmoil the former Soviet Central Asian States(most of whom are already in the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation with Russia & China).
Russia could very well exploit the silly ass groups in our nation,like I said in my earlier post,who are spouting separation of one sort or the other. Domestic groups that we wouldn’t naturally take seriously but laugh at,Russia could make “serious” threats. Russia is already trying to put her bombers in Cuba(joining China as a potential threat there) & is sending a Russian Naval Fleet to Venezuela. While we “scoff” at all of this,we should also be vigilant & “protecting” of our back yard as Russia is of hers.We need to remind Russia of the Monroe Doctrine(that is if we still believe in it).
Nah, It was pretty clear that Russians were completely prepared and antagonised the Georgians. There is no way that they would have been able to move that much armor and troops in such a short time without pre-planning.
And if it were just a “Police action” they would have just pushed the Georgians out of Ossetia and stopped. Instead they attacked Georgian villages and port cities (Poti, an oil shipping port)way away from Ossetia and for what?
Russia has lied all along the way, and they continue to do so. They are supposed to be pulling out and they are still in Poti, nowhere near the conflict, “arresting” Georgian soldiers. Also, there are many reports of them digging in.
No, they had this planned all along. If they do pull out, they will have destroyed so much of Georgi’s infrastructure that it will take a long time to recover.
Russia just wants to be the burr in our saddles,the pebble in our shoes,the wedgie in our underwear.
I have to agree with PJC on this one. But one important “minor” detail was left out. The Georgian offensive was orchestrated by Israeli advisors. Not only did Russia reprise the Georgians for their aggression, but it will soon do so to the Israelis. Possible ways they may do this are by: 1)selling advanced air defense systems to Iran, 2)placing cruise missles at their naval base in Lebanon, 3)covertly assassinating various Israeli spys or all of the above. This really could not have come at a worse time for the mideast.
Great,
Talk about moral equivalence, that is the comparison of Kosovo independence from an indicted genocidal regime, Serbia, to the so-called “Russian minorities” in Georgian Ossetia. Just for clarrification, how many ethnic Russians died in Georgian concentration camps?
In terms of US comparisons, that does not wash either because when Russia brutally put down the Chechnyan revolt, the US did not say a word.
I guess history, even recent history is hard to get straight.
The way your article was written makes it seem like the Russians were responsible, during the counterattack, for the claimed 2,000 casualties in South Ossetia. Actually (and this has recently been confirmed by Human Rights Watch), most Ossetian casualties occured during the initial Georgian attack, when those brave Georgian sons of liberty launched a massive indiscriminate artillery bombardment on a population centre.
Also, Camp, that NY Post article is wrong — “Scorched Earth” was the the codename for the Georgian military’s initial assault. But you are correct, the Vostok battalion (Chechens fighting for the Russians) are noted a bunch of looters, murderers, rapists, and thugs.
Johnny the Bull,
I’ve been wondering about the destruction reported in South Ossetia. Old Soviet (and now Russian) doctrine is to use overwhelming Artillery & Air Support, to “clear” the areas ahead of maneuver (ground) elements.
With that in mind, and just a theory. When the Georgians had taken the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali. The Russians immediate response for a counter attack, would have been with preparatory artillery fire & CAS. The civilians would most likely have associated the indirect fire & destruction with the Georgians, because the Russians weren’t anywhere in sight at the time.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7558619.stm
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Regarding the Human Rights Watch & Ossetian casualties, I found this:
“Anna Neistat of Human Rights Watch (HRW), who is leading a team investigating the humanitarian damage in South Ossetia, told the Guardian that Russian estimates of 2,000 dead in the conflict were “suspicious”.
“The figure of 2,000 people killed is very doubtful,” she said. “Our findings so far do not in any way confirm the Russian statistics. On the contrary, they suggest the numbers are exaggerated.”“
“Russia exaggerating South Ossetian death toll, says human rights group“
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/13/georgia
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And why hasn’t the ICRC been allowed to gain access South Ossetia? It’s been 10 days.
“Following a positive meeting on 19 August … the organization is hopeful that it will soon be granted access to South Ossetia.“
http://icrc.org/web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/htmlall/georgia-update-190808
Where did you find the info for your statement, “most Ossetian casualties occurred during the initial Georgian attack”?
Regards.
US actions to take:
o Carrier group to Black Sea?
o Recon overflights over from Italy
o ready hospitals in Germany.
o Lobby Russia
o Change treaties since 1917.
o SAC bombers over Russia?
o Beef up Japan defenses.
o Make Public Russian horrors.
o make Putin like a latter day Stalin?
I’m not so sure Russia orchestrated this from the beginning. The composition of Russian forces seems to indicate a “come as you are” war, so although the local military district was probably in a perpetual state of readiness (as would be expected), it wasn’t waiting on a known date to go into action. Also, Georgia’s timing was probably the best time slot they could find for the rest of the year for maximum advantage. I suspect Georgia expected to have absorbed South Ossetia before Russia could respond and therefore present a fait accompli, but got bogged down and Russia’s reflex was much harder and faster than anticipated.
But Russia is handling the situation very well from their side. They have not listened to the U.S. at all but throttle the conflict through France instead. They know that NATO knows that Georgia rolled the dice to begin with and therefore is confident that NATO will have no will to get involved. This shows they are getting more adept at managing diplomacy.
>James: The Georgian offensive was orchestrated by Israeli advisors.
I’m only aware of Israeli weapons being present, which is something they export across the globe. Do you have a source saying how they planned the initial Georgian attack? That’s a much different level of involvement. Russia was mad at Israel because Israeli weapons in Georgian hands took out a surprising amount of Russian armor.
>Roy Smith: We need to remind Russia of the Monroe Doctrine(that is if we still believe in it).
I think that’s a solid “no”. The Monroe doctrine was set forth in 1823, before the Industrial Revolution and when the entire world was agrarian. The world is unrecognizable now.
US actions to take:
o Carrier group to Black Sea?
>Iffy — that would require Turkey to choose a side. And there is not much a CAG could do unless an invitation was extended by Georgia and was accepted by Washington.
o Recon overflights over from Italy
>I’d imagine satellites are doing fine, and they don’t have airspace issues with those.
o Change treaties since 1917.
>After the Russian Civil War, the Allies no longer cared about this area of the world and let whomever wanted it the most have it. Not much has changed.
o SAC bombers over Russia?
>A fast way to start a nuclear war.
o Beef up Japan defenses.
>A better counter for China and North Korea, although the Japanese are mixed on this thought. I agree that they could be more assertive on their own right.
o Make Public Russian horrors.
>Which horrors? Nobody really knows who did what. The media generally hasn’t been smart enough to figure out who was shooting at whom and when. If you show a photograph of an atrocity, it becomes a circle of fingers as to who it was and who did it. And since everybody did something bad there at one point, each side can counter with its own accusations. This confusion favors the Russian side as it confuses western observers.
o make Putin like a latter day Stalin?
>Thank God that Putin is not a Stalin. Putin does have his issues, but as a student of Russian history there is a big difference between the two. And again, it is easy for Putin to counter propoganda with propoganda because the world has a fuzzy lense into this region. You may make some accusations stick in western minds but not enough to spur any action. Putin has left enough space for the western world to wiggle out of any thoughts of intervention.
“Obviously, the Russian regime is concerned about South Ossetia and Abkhazia and their large Russian populations.“
Wrong.
In Abkhazia, ethnic Russians are a small minority, something like 10% of the population, with over twice as many Georgians.
In South Ossetia, ethnic Russians are only a couple percent, as opposed to tens of thousands of georgians.
Meanwhile, there are far more ethnic Russians in Georgia itself than in Abkhazia and South Ossetia combined.
Please, get your facts straight. I expect a higher level of discourse on this blog. Claiming that Russia invaded to protect ethnic Russians is just silly.
And don’t insult our intelligence by saying you meant that people with Russian issued passports were “Russian”. Russia did that on purpose to manufacture its claim to the area. Those people are not really Russian. It is a fraud.
Why are they trying to censor Russia, exactly? That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
Perhaps he means “censure”?
so any more about the alledged 2000 dead south ossetians? Last i heard HRW said that they only found 45 dead and none of the ‘flooding basements’ bull that the Russians had been peddling. Be nice if DT could do an article cutting through the propaganda (from both sides) and find out some genuine facts about this upset.
@Camp
In regards to the majority of damage to Tskinvali being done by the Georgians: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7562611.stm
The two thousand casualties is probably inflated but even if it was one hundred the point is the same. In morality, intent is what matters. And the Georgians at the very least showed a murderous disregard in using their Grad MLRS against a city.
And for the Russians to have been responsible for the intial bombardment, they would have been lobbing shells from North Ossetia clear across the Caucusus mountains, something clearly impossible. And while Soviet doctrine did generally call for mass firepower superiority, I think the Russians have learned the lesson from Grozny that it isn’t effective in urban environments, notwithstanding that they would have been lobbing shells onto the heads of their own peacekeepers and allied Ossetian militias.
You may not have a high opinion of the Russian people but they take as dim a view of shooting their own comrades as any other people. Unless they are trying to surrender to the enemy, of course.
Oh and here’s a good roundup of some of the bull:
http://geimint.blogspot.com/2008/08/russia-georgia-disinformation.html
The georgians are more sinned against than sinning but they are still sinners. Which is why they shouldn’t be let into nato. It’s not that they don’t deserve to be protected against the Bear, but that the US shouldn’t be writing blank cheques to small backwards nations who still have a couple of intractable blood feuds needing settlement. Because I think the Balkans showed us how they end up being settled. Come to think of it, the Russian/Soviet Empire was only European empire that didn’t have its ethnicities nicely sorted out into homogenous countries in the wake of WWII, which is why it’s been such a bumpy ride since the 90’s.
Oh, and give us our damn Humvees back! they aren’t trophies.
Oh, and give us our damn Humvees back! they aren’t trophies.
“Oh and here’s a good roundup of some of the bull:
http://geimint.blogspot.com/2008/08/russia-georgia-disinformation.htmlPosted by: Johnny the Bull at August 20, 2008 03:16 AM“
Yeah good if your a Russian propaganda officer, the guy knows his mil stuff but is a clear Russia apolagist and fanboy, notice how he forgot to mention any Russian propaganda/bullshit such as the 2000 deaths that turned out to be 46 deaths according to HRW.
@ Duncan Kinder,
yeah i’d say theres masses of scope for unconventional warfare by Georgian troops. As long as they stay legal: as in wearing uniforms, only targeting military etc etc i’d be more then happy to see them use mines, EFP roadside devices, sniping etc. Who gives a sht if we (NATO) supply them, Russian weapons are always somehow finding there way into the forces we oppose so its fair game. Those shitty Russian troops would be easy pickings for a determined well armed force as long as the attackers shoot and scoot pretty damn quick .
You hear about Russia stealing the windows from the military base in Senaki?
That is pretty sad. Maybe they saw “Made in the USA” on the window panes or something. Maybe the Russian military thinks that windows have a definite strategic importance on a military base, so they had to remove them.
Maybe the Russians thought if they stole the windows, the Georgians wouldn’t be able to see them coming if they attack again… lol..
“And don’t insult our intelligence by saying you meant that people with Russian issued passports were “Russian”. Russia did that on purpose to manufacture its claim to the area. Those people are not really Russian. It is a fraud.“
It’s not. Every citizen of the former Soviet Union is entitled to a Russian passport. It’s natural that a lot of South Ossetians would get themselves one in case Georgia comes knocking (which they did).
Similarily there’s quite a lot of “Germans” in Israel because every descendant of victims of the 3rd Reich (i.e. half of Israel) can get a German passport and whenever the Mideast conflict turns hot a lot of them do just as a fallback option.
Duncan Kinder, you’re just too good. I admit, arming , even founding Al-Qaida was a master stroke of genius by the US COIN community. It sure gave the USSR a bloody nose. Now, taking lessons from H’zballato do the same again would be another awe-inspiring action. (But then again…)
Jimbo Jones, thanks for the IMINT link. For the rest, it’s all business as usual, innit?
“taking control after inflicting heavy civilian casualties — some press reports cited approximately 2,000 deaths.“
After this, I begin to wander at this website objectivity. Turning things upsidedown (better call it outrageous lie)is an example of Western values? Georgia has shelled S.Ossetia for about two day, by the time Russian troops arrived S. Ossetia capital was not far from Stalingrad. And by that time there already were that many casualties. Russia came in to protect Ossetians, ever thought about asking civillians Ossetians about this. Are U so dumb to think that Ossetians would ask Russia to protect it further after it “inflicting heavy civilian casualties”. If you consider yourself a normal person, make a correction, otherwise go to hell all of you.
Theyv got our pasports.
2000 people dead. See these Russian burning tanks. everybody knows that when a tank colony is shelled few dozen civlian will die caus tanks will seek shelter in grovds and use human shield. But cause 2000 died it means they hit A LOT of other civilian pasports.
Those poor old women with blood whiped out all over their face SAID that they supported Russian and as you saw their houses were full of holes and partially collapsed. Try to see now –we got attacked. — No you didnt EVER get attacked hahaha. DAMN
Hello,
Being Russian just couldn’t miss out the opportunity to comment on this. First of all, let me assure you, that I believe the war is dirty business and no way I support the fueling of war and just hope it will be finally muted down and no more fighting erupts.
Abkhazia and Osettiya separatism has its long roots even from the Soviet times and before that and both were made into Georgian SSR (sub-state inside USSR) at Stalin’s time. Stalin, being Georgian, was very fond of bringing new territories into his homeland republic. Georgians were very happy to dominate over the two and there were tensions between them even in Soviet times. Can you imagine what it meant in Soviet times to have tensions between regions? It meant they were desperate.
Now getting back to the latest events, I do think it was very clear that these two provinces do not want to be inside Georgia. Hell, just basically like Georgia didn’t want to be part of USSR at the Soviet collapse.
Georgia tried to ‘pacify’ both provinces with force in post-Soviet time and failed. Russia certainly didn’t want another war to boil on its southern border and having seen that Georgia is going to try forceful resolution once again has stated just number of times that we will not let this happen. Not because of any territorial interest (we have plenty of land, you know), but because war always bring in terrorists of all sort and this is not what we would like to see on Caucasus.
However, Georgia played its move, and my country has shown that it is going to defend its interests even with force if necessary. All in all, USA is doing it quite fine in Kosovo and Iraq, and this is just the statement that if US thinks it’s ok to do it, then we think the same — we will ALSO defend our interests with force. Or USA denies us the right it has for itself?
Well, this is it. I know there are accusations that ‘Russians were prepared’. Huh, and you thought our intel sucks? Obviously Russia knew that Georgia is gathering forces and prepared.
Regards,
euge.
I’d like to toss my 2 cents on this issue for just one reason. I’m a south american from Brasil watching left wingers control many presidencies and governments all over the place, our president founding an organization pro URSS — south american version. It’s going on just now. Leftist agenda always will be about domination, centralism, and death. Lets not forguet their inspiring leaders (Stalin, Lenin, Mao Ts