Okay, I’m going to use this edition of The Sunday Paper to make two predictions:
1. Robert Gates will not stay on as SecDef and will be replaced by Richard Danzig a few weeks into the Obama administration, if not immediately.
2. Once the new administration gets into office, F-22 will be the first major program to be cut significantly or cancelled altogether followed shortly by Presidential Helo (VH-71). (JSF is also a target, especially if any more foreign partners balk.)
So what do you think, dear erudite-in-DoD-matters-type DT readers? Who’s going to be SecDef? What programs are toast?
– Ward
{ 43 comments… read them below or add one }
We are all “toast”!
He has already written – in his book – that in any conflict involving muslims, he will side with the muslims. So, what if it is U.S. vs. the Muslims, then what?!
I have not decided whether he is another bumbling Carter, or the “devil incarnate.”
In either case, we are ALL TOAST!
p.s. He is also very big on infanticide (abortion), and all gun bans.
p.p.s. He is also doing a fine job of assigning Cabinet positions to the other democratic presidential hopefuls. This is called “keeping your enemies closer,” and subordinate.
“He has already written – in his book – that in any conflict involving muslims, he will side with the muslims. So, what if it is U.S. vs. the Muslims, then what?!”
No, he hasn’t. No, he won’t.
—-
Returning to the actual real world (rather than loony-world, above).
F-22 is probably in trouble. FCS, too. Who knows with the Navy; *all* of their shipbuilding programs are having big issues (except the Virginia-class)
I expect missile defense is toast. Existing programs will continue for a while with dwindling funds and political sabotage. I think Obama has too much invested in this technology being impossible or undesirable to admit the progress which has been made and the ever increasing need in an ever more dangerous world.
Military R&D dollars will be shifted much more into politically correct and not really militarily applicable research. Expect lots more defense money working on alternative energy, both militarily practical and projects that would never be used by the military. Also research into medical and climate issues will be funded via defense appropriations. This serves the purpose of being able to claim a smaller reduction in defense spending while funding politically correct projects and defunding projects not supported by the left.
I think you can give up on a replacement nuclear warhead for the next four years and funds to maintain current stocks will be largely lacking. Further decay of the nuclear infrastructure and loss of expertise will make the needed rebuild and maintenance of a nuclear deterrent much more expensive.
I think there is likely to be an overall reduction in military forces and a likely creation of a large civilian force based in the US similar to that done by FDR. This force will be funded via Homeland Security but used to shift resources from defense to environmental and jobs projects. Expect lots of
“more into politically correct and not really militarily applicable research”
Woops. Back to looney-world.
Total, Just a realistic assessment of what an Obama administration and a Democrat congress is likely to do. Politicians of both parties have agendas, which shape priorities.
Defense spending is used to fund a lot of pork and non-defense spending which would be otherwise difficult to justify. If you ever read through a defense bill you will find a lot of spending which has much more to do with the political desires of individual politicians then the defense needs of the country. While some in congress are calling for a 25% reduction in defense spending and a huge increase in domestic spending, I believe that congress will find it more politically expedient to shift military spending to non-defense uses while still calling it defense spending. This spending shell game occurs in every budget under every administration. With both congress and the executive both of the same party and ideology, the spending priorities will be very different. The two parties have very different ideas of how to best defend American interests with crossover between parties over defense issues. There are still some hawks in the Democratic party and Doves in the Republican party but the far left (which is largely in control of the Democratic party this time) takes its anti-war dove status to what I feel are dangerous levels.
“Just a realistic assessment…”
A realistic assessment…in looney-world.
(The quickest way for a Democratic President to lose their reelection bid would be to do as you described.)
It’s still to early to make predictions about the Secretary of Defense. Obama knows this is a touchy issue and is going to play it close to the chest, but it’s safe to assume that Bill Gates won’t be staying on long.
I think big ticket defense programs that are running in the red will all be scrutinized in general in this administration, but Obama’s main focus is domestic issues and he may let a lot of this stuff slide to get votes on his domestic initiatives. Plus the Pentagon is already looking to limit the options of the next Secretary of Defense much like it did with Donald Rumsfeld, so even if he wanted to make big changes, he would end up hitting a wall there.
With Bob Gates out of the picture, I’m thinking Obama is going to give in to the Democrats in the Congress on f22 funding so that he can get their help with other policy initiatives he wants.
The JSF will fair better than the F22. Norway just signed on and some other Allies probably will to, to justify keeping the program going. Got to hand it to the F35 boys, they couldn’t have “politically engineered” this one better.
FCS is going to be curtailed to the point of irrelevance in favor of putting money into manpower.
CTR1: “he will side with the Muslims… devil incarnate… He is also very big on infanticide (abortion), and all gun bans.”
WTF is this? Seems like the ramblings of a mentally challenged Taliban wannabe. That’s a significant amount of disrespect for the President elect of the United States.
“Just a realistic assessment…”
A realistic assessment…in looney-world.
(The quickest way for a Democratic President to lose their reelection bid would be to do as you described.)
Posted by: Total at November 23, 2008 03:20 PM
———–
Total seriously stfu
God, the mans right i used to be a dam democrate but the more i look the democratic party is controled by men like soros and well anyone else with the money to buy them. Wont say slot of republicans arent the same many are, but with the democrates when the man at top says jump everyone else says simply how high they will do what is best for the PARTY not necessarily the country.
Though i do agree with you though FCS is top at his cut list hes said so. So are missile defense and a few other systems well need in the future…because say what you will there will always be war until the last man breaths his last breath its our nature.
btw total do you realy have so little to do in life tht you can troll this forum all day?
“Total seriously stfu”
Gee whillikers, that’s some powerful argumentin’, that is.
Next up: Valcan says “Sticks and stones…”
“btw total do you realy have so little to do in life tht you can troll this forum all day?
I have so little to do in my life that I learned how to *spell* and *write*. Try it sometime.
“Total seriously stfu”
Gee whillikers, that’s some powerful argumentin’, that is.
Next up: Valcan says “Sticks and stones…”
“btw total do you realy have so little to do in life tht you can troll this forum all day?
I have so little to do in my life that I learned how to *spell* and *write*. Try it sometime.
Posted by: Total at November 23, 2008 08:50 PM
ROFLMAO!!!!!!
omfg 6 minutes eh?
so you agreed with me?
cause so far mister “sticks and stones” youve yet to realy say ANYTHING about the story just call ppl crazy stupid and whine so again seriously?
“omfg 6 minutes eh?”
Seven minutes, Mr. Twenty Three Minutes In Responding.
“youve yet to realy say ANYTHING about the story”
What part of my first message could you not read? Of course, since your highest achievement in debating was ‘stfu,’ I shouldn’t take the reading for granted.
Total
Excepting the Muslim bit, when you call loony land what others repeat directly from your leaders own mouth, who is loony?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRGru2CPC4E&eurl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zx2PP4pYGno&eurl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bueCxeXZAUU&eurl
My “hope” is that Obama will turn out to be just another lying politician. So far seeing the ole Clinton crew rolling in/taking over my “hope” is looking better. Even so not expecting any forward movement but if in the way of the military he will at least do a Clinton stagnation rather than all out breaking and running like those above videos lean to I would call it a best case scenario. Allot of good men bleed and many gave all to see everything just thrown away on some Utopian dream.
Back on topic. no bets. An idiot picking idiots to run the fun factory. Anything can happen.
Don’t know if he’ll be up for it, but it would be a good thing for the US if Obama’s DNI took on and/or abolished the National Reconnaissance Office. The NRO has been massively overspending and underperforming for more than twenty years now and our intelligence capabilities have suffered both directly and, through budgets, indirectly because of it.
We have some good conversation here and some really stupid conversation here..
My “topic related” comments/opinions…
F-22 = 200 to 300 range with Aus/Japan possibly getting a version bringing unit price down (that whole rebuild our friendships thing.)
F-35 = Will probably stay close to the same if for no other reason than helping the economy and industrial base and terms already agreed on by member countries
The European Missle Defense program is pointless and a giant waste of money in my opinion and I hope it gets cancelled. Keep some Airborne Laser 747s in air near trouble spots if the threat level is up.
FCS = Probably as soonergrunt predicted, parted and filtered out
A surge in unmanned projects
I really don’t know how the replacement tanker program will come down. Could go either way. Obama might insist on domestic production of the airframe. (Northrop /EADS will have to decide whether its worth it to set up a factory here)
Maybe not a new rifle but new ammunition for the M-4/16 —- Maybe the HK version of the firing system as an upgrade.
Regardless of how the specifics fall, I think there will be a complete overhaul on how our acquisition process is conducted for all branches.
Missile defense will take a big hit (30% to 50%)IMO. F22 is at risk about the same as FCS…but F22. F35 is more bread and butter so we’ll keep it and offer to more allies.
MRAP’s cut, but JLTV will be at risk as well–looks like could get bloated so I think it will pair down in requirements or in numbers or stretched out…
As usual, DOE budgets will get cut, but renewable energy budgets will expand…
CTR1(SW) — Your Governor waits for you in Alaska!! Care for a moose meatball?
ps. Keep your eye on Russia while you’re up there.
If Obama was Emperor of America for life (which I’m sure he fantasizes about), he would most likely slash military budgets accross the board, and axe things like the F-22 completely. For the last few decades, Democrats have developed a reputation (some of it deserved, some of it not-so-much) for being soft on defense.
With that said, Obama is not the Emperor of America. He is a politician, and is already looking towards re-election in 4 years. Cutting a project like the F-22 completely would be a foolish move on his part, alienating many within his own party, and reinforcing notions that Dems are soft on defense. We’ll see cuts, and he may even rock the boat a little, but Obama’s not stupid. I don’t expect any radical cuts (other than FCS which is probably a good idea.)
Good Morning Ward,
It would be a good start. Perhaps Obama could also look at FCS, the CV-22, the LCS, and of course the B-3 program too.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
Here’s a thought…
How bout they cut spending on the ridiculous amount of money being dumped into “Homeland Security” such as all the wiretaps, putting cameras are every damn intersection and shadow military’s.
Stop producing the “Bank on wheels” MRAP’s that can’t even go off-road and serve no purpose after Iraq.
Are people going to wake up when the F-22ski rolls out and is 2x cheaper?! China, India and Brazil will be emerging super powers come the near future.
We only spend what? 2-3% of our GDP, every nation has a similar cap. But until we pull out heads out of our rectal cavity and realize WTF is going with our economy who really cares?!
Sure gas is cheaper, but go look at food prices. Might be the same or a bit more, but look closely at the quantity. It’s shirking… Face it Fella, defense spending is just a margin of whats going to happen the next 4 years.
:BIG DEFENSE SPENDING CUT IDEA:
Stop policing the F***ing world!!! We have bases in some 130 countries. How expensive you think that cost us???
I got a big defense spending idea for you CAD. We don’t cut defense spending because it would be bad for this country! You damn liberals failure to recognize the fact that America NEEDS a strong military.
The PAK-FA has proven to be nothing but a paper project so far. I will believe it when I see it. Yet the F-22A Raptor is here and now and we should certainly buy at least 400.
We should keep our military spending at least at 4-5% of the GDP. Yes the economy is facing hard times but every other country is also facing problems in that sector. Eventually the economy will correct itself. Meanwhile there is no reason to cut the equipment the men who defend this country need. You people would have men die because their equipment was outclassed. You would do this because you wanted some more money tossed in the social security and welfare programs at the cost of our NATIONAL DEFENSE.
The bailout money we wasted on businesses who made stupid decisions and fell on their asses could have bought us as many F-22As as we need. If we keep bailing them out they will keep acting stupidly.
“1. People: recruiting, retention, personnel management, unit cohesion, empowerment
and character development.
2. Ideas: military theory, doctrine, education, training and organization.
3. Hardware: weapons, supplies, infrastructure and technology at a sustainable
cost.”
Came across this in “America’s Defense Meltdown” and found it apt for this discussion.
“You damn liberals failure to recognize the fact that America NEEDS a strong military.”
You damn conservatives got us into two wars, almost lost one of them and are in the process of losing another. That’s nothing to brag about. You damn conservatives can’t manage a weapons program to save your life, leading to massive cost-overruns. You damn conservatives keep buying things like F-22s when no one is flying anything near it, while leaving the folks going to Iraq short of body armor, uparmored Hummers, etc.
What exactly makes you think you have ANY credibility in this discussion?
Total, the DailyKos called looking for you. They said they wanted their maladjusted seminar callers back.
Valcan, don’t waste your time on Total. He’s like one of those robots following a prime directive. Unfortunately, his prime directive is liberal lunacy. Anything other than that, things like “the truth” or “common sense”, will not compute.
Total, the DailyKos called looking for you
So, nothing that resembles an actual argument, huh?
ReconTeam… Politics aside, “You damn liberals” (BTW I’m not liberal, democrat, republican, etc… I’m AMERICAN) We already have the worlds strongest military! Our economy blows because our foreign policy blows. We can’t afford to have bases everywhere. Think of what we could build up defense wise if we didn’t have our military spread out every damn corner of the planet. That’s not what our constitution allows.
We cannot police the entire world, that would clear up MASSIVE funds to fuel better equipment. IE; new rifles, F-22s, body armor, etc.
I am 110% in agreement give our soldiers the highest quality, but in all honesty how big of a P.O.S. are you to think anyone in this country or forum “…would have men die because their equipment was outclassed..” and put money towards SS and welfare.
The Su-30MKI and the Su-35 are serious threats to all of our legacy fighters if their pilots had as much training as ours. I want as big of an A$$ kicking military as any other person on here. How ever our Military Industrial Complex has gotten massively out of control and a democratic congress and executive branch are going to severally hurt our Armed forces.
RON PAUL for President 2012!!!
“democratic congress and executive branch are going to severally hurt our Armed forces.”
It was a Democratic Congress and President that won both (*both*) world wars. That’s a much better record than the Republicans can brag about (the Civil War and ?)
Posted by: Total at November 24, 2008 07:19 PM
omfg your still here either your one of those obama is god freaks who must squash anything like disagreement with the one or a sad man who has lost all touch with the real world.
CAD btw…ron paul sucks he is a racist bigot who makes no sence when you realy listen to him so with all do respect..
STEEL 2012
“omfg your still here either your one of those obama is god freaks who must squash anything like disagreement with the one or a sad man who has lost all touch with the real world.”
Or someone who is wondering if it’s possible to have a discussion about defense policy without people using the words “damn liberals” all the time.
Oh, and capital letters. I’d be in favor of those, as well.
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@ SGT Mac:
Shaw didn’t say that. The phrase you’re cribbing has been attributed to a lot of people. For example, Clemenceau. See Brewer’s Famous Quotations, p. 146, or:
http://books.google.com/books?id=uIRi0BOvTi4C&pg=PA146&lpg=PA146&dq=A+man+who+is+not+a+liberal+at+the+age+of+twenty+SHAW&source=web&ots=WwGXfH6xqQ&sig=NjjkZmT2aSZ_V9uTnYLzXd2p3jI&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=7&ct=result
In a passage from his book “Audacity of Hope” Senator Obama says he would “stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction”.
From another of Obama’s books, “Dreams of My Father” a passage reads: “I found a solace in nursing a pervasive sense of grievance and animosity against my mother’s race.”
Mix that in your Kool-aid and drink it, Obamatrons.
RE: Shaw quote.
Guilty. Yeah I know, different and more substantiated attributions are out there. But I first heard it cited as a Shaw quote and have been sentimental about it ever since. I felt it was pretty safe area for sloppy scholarship considering there’s also an axiom out there that eventually all quotes will be attributed to Shaw.
Ummmm…. Everyone here is aware that the modern Liberal is really a turn of the 20th Century Progressive, and that Modern Conservativism is the intellectual heir to classic Liberism, right? Right?
“In a passage from his book “Audacity of Hope” Senator Obama says he would “stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction”.”
What he actually said was the following:
“Of course, not all my conversations in immigrant communities follow this easy pattern. In the wake of 9/11, my meetings with Arab and Pakistani Americans, for example, have a more urgent quality, for the stories of detentions and FBI questioning and hard stares from neighbors have shaken their sense of security and belonging. They have been reminded that the history of immigration in this country has a dark underbelly; they need specific assurances that their citizenship really means something, that America has learned the right lessons from the Japanese internments during WWII, and that I will stand with them should the political winds shift in an ugly direction.”
In other words, he’d stand up for *American citizens* if they got harassed. You have a problem with American citizens, do you?
Good Evening Guys,
To Wes. If I wanted a friend I would get a dog.
To SMSgt. Mac. Thank you I don’t mind at all being compared to the likes of Theodore Roosevelt a CMH winner and leader of the early 20th. Century Progressives.
I noticed no one mentioned any recent Conservative roll models, I can’t either. The only name that comes to mind is Berry Goldwater but since he felt that gay rights, family planning, abortion were on ones “…damn business.”, and he served his country in WW II ole’ Barry wouldn’t be considered a Conservative.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
“Those looking to the past, or holding on to the past are called traditionalists. Although, conservatives are a type of traditionalist. We long for adherance to the CONSTITUTION.”
Strange then that once a conservative administration got into power, they started throwing the Consitution out the window. In fact, four of the last five conservative Presidents have had scandals that damaged the Constitution:
George W. Bush: Oh, brother, too many to mention. Gitmo, torture, etc.
George H.W. Bush: Nothing major
Reagan: Iran-Contra
Ford: Preemptively pardoned Nixon
Nixon: Watergate
Not a record you want to be bragging about.
I would submit that Byron Skinner, with his blanket statement that “In short Conservatives are always looking into the rear view mirror long for what was. Liberals threw away the rearview mirror and can only see ahead.” represents what is wrong with what Americans are becoming… simplistic, petulant and adolescent.
The Death of the Adult. The refusal to respect other points of view. Assigning the worse motives to your ideological enemies.
This is quite common today, especially amongst the Left. We Conservatives think Liberal policies are misguided; Liberals think Conservatives THEMSELVES are evil. Just look at the way they demonize Republicans, and are allowed to get away with it (while if a Conservative criticises them, it becomes HATE SPEECH). This is childish. Irresposnsible. Selfish.
I believe this attitude derives from the total Liberal control of the Media and Academia. Liberals view thier ideas as so obviously correct, questioning them means the questioner is a bad person. So, no learning takes place. Conservatives, on the other hand, have to constantly defend our ideas, so they become honed and refined, while the Liberal mindset stagnates. Liberalism, under the twin gods of Multiculturalism and Moral Relativism, is becoming a race to the lowest common denominator in terms of culture and morality. It is a Death Spiral. Good luck with that, liberals, but you’re not taking the rest of us with you.
The Theodore Roosevelt references are engaging. I was at one time a great admirer of TR, to the point I forced my son to read the Rise of Theodore Roosevelt in junior high for a book report. (He loved it).
Now I am merely a fan of his. He was a man for his time – flawed though he was, for a brief time. I often wonder how ‘progressive’ he would find what passes for modern progressives. You can’t judge a product of the 19th Century to the standards of the 21st Century of course, but I’m pretty certain he would be smart enough to abandon some of his more progressive ideas if he saw where some of them went.
Progressive became a dirty word of course AFTER TR, and you would be hard pressed to find someone who admitted to be one outside of Minnesota past the Woodrow Wilson presidency for good reason.
“Total’s statement about no Progressives”
Read again, Byron. It wasn’t my statement.
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