First of all Happy New Year from Defense Tech. I hope you all had a wonderful holiday season and are ready to get back to work helping us decipher the strategic and technological dilemmas facing the world’s militaries.
I heard today that a friend and colleague of mine Tom Ricks of the Washington Post has started a new gig blogging with Foreign Policy online — relaunched by the Washingtonpost/Newsweek/Slate publishing group after it purchased the magazine from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in September.
Let’s just say the so-called “Best Defense” blog is off to an OK start. But that’s fine, Tom will hit his stride and learn that he needs to shed some of that journalistic punch pulling he’s been trained to do for his entire career. And there have been a bunch of updates since I first checked the blog this morning that are damned good and we’re looking forward to more.
Anyway, he summed up for me a thought I’d had since this whole Gaza goat rope started. Seems to me Israel can’t possibly “win” with Operation Cast Lead as it stands. I just don’t understand the goals here and can’t put together the logic that must have led them to this decision — unless of course it’s PURELY politics (don’t forget, FM Livni and DM Barak are both running for PM in February against Likud hawk Netanyahu).
Here’s what Ricks pulled from his sources:
Terry Daly, one of the smartest people I know on counterinsurgency issues, doesn’t see much hope for Israel’s crackdown in Gaza. “Don’t ask me what the solution is to Israel’s strategic problem,” he comments in a note. “Thomas Henriksen’s excellent 2007 Joint Special Operations University monograph, ‘The Israeli Approach to Irregular Warfare and Implications for the United States,’ clearly relates how the Israelis have tried most of the usual solutions. For 60 years, though, Israel through the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), basically has relied on ‘the utility of force.’ The IDF became and remains a shining example of conventional military excellence, but it also seems to be heading for defeat in ‘war amongst the people,’ where the objective is to win peoples’ support not to kill them and break all their toys.… Meanwhile the Muslim nihilists must be salivating at the thought of getting the IDF on the ground in the Gaza Strip.“
Exactly…and how in a million years did Israel think it would get anything but international condemnation for its invasion — despite the moral justification for responding to repeated rocket attacks from a newly independent state free of the excuse of “occupation.” Humanitarian crisis, proportionality, civilian casualties…all the vocabulary of the news leads describing Israel’s strike. And where does it end? What’s the goal?
Ricks suggests reading this analysis from the Guardian newspaper…
“Islamic Jihad — the extremist group behind many of the rocket attacks on Israeli towns — has got the war it wished for at least.“
Some food for thought and I’d like to hear your thoughts on this too…
And, again, a hearty welcome to the new medium, Tom. We’ll be keeping close tabs on your stuff and cribbing like a third grader who forgot his homework.
– Christian
I know a lot of Persians and Arabs and I can tell you they are a very moderate people who have been unfortunately left to devices of the Mullahs and Sheiks by the actions of Britain and the USA throughout from the 20th century . We killed various leaders through the CIA , MI5 and MI6 all for the the oil concessions . Would you trust us ?
–I too know the persians quite well and indeed there are moderate people among them, however the religous lunatics at power currently are not people we can negotiate or make deals with, its bad enough we are dealing with the saudis a far greater threat to our civilization, we have no need to walk into another pit of deceit with the Iranian regime.
Re the Mullahs , they have only one interest and that is to be the number one hydro carbon superpower . We have already gifted them Iraq and its oil as well as leaving them the only real military threat in the Gulf .
–The mullahs have only one objective and that is the domination of islam in this world, the powergame is just another means of achieving this objective.
We should try and bring Iran over to the West , there bark is far worse than there bite , it makes no sense for them to engage the West in a military engagement as they know it would set them back twenty years . Over time the moderates will win out in Iran if we them give a guiding and and helping hand .
–You talking about them like their rational people when they are not, rationality is a scarse commodity in the muslim world and scarser more within the iranian regime.
As for Israel they are trying to entice Hezbollah into action who as we know are controlled by Iran . Israel then
wants the middle east in flames and USA and UK jets hitting Iranian targets .
–Nice conspiracy theory.
Israel is terrified of the West bringing Iran in from the cold . Well we have done it with China and Russia who killed and murdered in the millions throughout the last century and if we don‘t bring Iran over to the west the Chinese and Russians will take the oportunity .
–The west has no need of playing the games of the Iranian regime, we must continue to support Israel a nation that shares our ideals and values. As for china and Russia we may have brought them in from the cold, but their very much in process of putting us back out into it.
Remember once Iran has upgraded its oil and gas structure it becomes the worlds number one energy power , also it is at the crossroads of energy supply to the west !!
–Well Im sure your willing to sell your soul for energy, Im not so willing however alternate energy sources renewed use of nuclear power are far better alternatives then becoming further entangled in the middle east.
We should be firm and strong but willing to talk .
–The only options to deal with islamic regimes is isolation and covertly supporting moderate opposition within.
I would still like an answer as to whether Israel will ever rush to the aid of the USA and Great Britain ? I think not
Thats a ridiculous requirement, Israel has no great expeditionary force, its like asking would norway would denmark and the answer is no, not out of lack of will but lack of ability, they are however contributing greatly to the defense of the west by their wits science/technology and shared intelligence, in cooperation with the US. And most importantly they are in the forefront of the battle of our time against islamic fundamentalism, which does not have its roots in our treatment of the muslim world or our actions or lack of action in the middle east. Its roots are in the islamic teachings but the current jihad was sparked by the collapse of the ottoman empire, the war between islam and the world however has been ongoing since the robber baron mohammed first set out from the arabian desert.
I’ve been reading military.com and citing it with pride. And confidence that it could be relied on for accurate and worthy information.
And then I read this piece of old, done over and over again propaganda. It’s disgusting.
I can’t exaggerate how disappointed I am that I must now research anything I read from military.com before I cite it’s use. Just like most every other news source. I feel so let down.
Lambert , Israel is just as much a rogue nation as Iran .It manipulates the media and political elite in the USA for its own ends and has betrayed the US by repeatedly spying on US national interests .
It is well know that the US military hierarchy is exasperated by the neocons bellicosity towards Iran and friendship with the Jewish political lobby . They know that Israel is trying to stir up a hornets nest and that a longer strategy of containment and diplomacy is needed .
The only reason that the violence in Iraq has decreased so much is due to behind the scene deals between American and Iranian players . Also Iran abandoned the whole suicide bomber tactics along time ago and you won‘t see the mullahs play that card unless they are bombedAs for the roots of Islamic extremism , the fuel for that fire was the USA and UK not telling the Shah of Iran to lay off with his political killings . The result of which opposition in Iran could only be voiced through the mullahs who still had some protection . Prior to this the mullahs were secular and did not get involved in politics and radical islam was pretty much unheard of .
Also Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are the breeding grounds for the current brand of islamic nihilistic extremism . The so called war between the West and Islam is a construct of the Israeli lobby .
Re the military action in Gaza , it will only work if Israel can wipe Hamas out and then do the same to Hezbollah . Then Israel must pull out all the stops and make peace with Fatah . Unfortunately the Israeli military is not strong enough to do both so Iran will still have leverage through Hezbollah .
The priority of the West meanwhile should be energy and avoidance of a potential future conflict with russia and china over access to the gulf regions hydro carbons . If the West can bring it self to deal with Iran and the shia‘s then we will be in a much stronger position .
I want the west as the major force in the Gulf in terms of military power and political influence , currently Israel is preventing this .
Israel has used up the goodwill from the West and deserves no more special treatment .
Good Morning Folks,
For anyone really interested in seeing how all the siuation with Israel and the Palestinians started after WWII I would recommend a reissued book called “The Nazi Dictatorship and the Deutsche Bank by Harold James.
Prof. James examines the relationship between the Nazis and German banking and commercial interest starting the the 1920’s, and the integration of looted Jewish assets into the banking system, to the end of the war. One of the more interesting things that developed was a conduit for gold and silver through Turkey and Egypt.
Control of these funds after the war were taken over by unreconstructed Nazis, mainly the SS and upper level bureaucrats of the Nazi era. These funds worked there way into countries like Iran, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan etc. and came back as oil credits that have been redistributed into the Palestinian cause. A quick look at directors of the european banking networks of the middle east will find a lot of the same names that appeared on post WWII most wanted list.
This is the dark underside of this problem that nobody wants to deal with. Anyone who doubts this look back to Adm. Poindexter’s idea for DARPA to disrupt these corrupted economic activities and not the reactions of the U.S. Senate and Wall Street. Not even 9/11 could could bring Wall Street into looking into it’s own cellar.
Any window for a peaceable solution of the right for Israel’s existence in the are was very brief and most likely died in the 1950’s. The nuclear card always follows this argument, forget it. It makes no difference how many weapons Israel might or has, there are to many Palestinians spread to far out, it would only be a black eye not a knock out blow to the Palestinians and would turn the word against Israel.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
Of course Israel can’t “win” in Gaza. They tried for 40 years to win and Sharon — not exactly a pinko softy — deliberately abandoned the place, because it just wasn’t worth it.
Clearly the rocket fire cannot be stopped by any military means, unless Israel physically occupied the whole strip (which exposes the IDF constant attack). Assuming that Israel’s leaders realize this, and it’s inconceivable that they don’t, then those leaders are just engaged in electioneering and a little “terrorism” of their own.
People and countries will always do what they have to do (which goes for both Israel and the Palestinians), but I don’t like when the U.S. is forced to spend money and political/diplomatic capital to take sides when both sides are equally guilty.
Can anything be sillier than trying to make peace with a group that is totally dedicated to wipe you off the face of the earth?
It is the Militant Islamist’s goal to remove Israel from the face of the Earth. They are not just fighting Hamas… Heck, even Iran has a bunch of volunteers that want to fight in Gaza.
It comes down to religious beliefs. Militant Islamists want complete control of the “Holy Land”. There will never be peace by continuously forcing Israel to give up it’s land to other nations. It will never be enough for them, they want all the land of Israel not just chunks.
THESE ARE THE THINGS THAT OCCUR,WAR AND RUMORS OF WAR.ONCE AGAIN HOPE IS NOT A PLAN BUT PRAYER AND IMMEDIATE FAMILIARITY WITH THE WAR PLANS IN THIS AREA SHOULD GENERALLY RANK AS OP PLAN B FOR NAVAL AND MILITARY COMMANDERS ANY WHERE NEAR THIS PART OF THE WORLD OR WITH ANY POSSIBLE TANGENTCY FOR MILITARY OPERATIONS NEAR THIS GLOBAL HOT SPOT.
ALL OF THE ABOVE
I have never seen so many comments to a post on this site. Mention Israel and the Palestinians and everyone goes nuts.
Christian wrote”..despite the moral justification for responding to repeated rocket attacks from a newly independent state free of the excuse of “occupation.”“
Christian are you suggesting that Gaza is not still illegally occupied by Israel? You are aware that Israel still controls Gaza’s borders, airspace and territorial waters, aren’t you? That meets the definition of occupation. You are aware that Israel has been trying to starve the Palestinians of Gaza into submission as well. That meets the definition of an act of war and a war crime.
Is anybody here confused as to who is right and who is wrong here? It is true that Hamas has targeted civilians and I wish they wouldn’t. The Israeli army targets civilians as well, and uses them as human shields. Can anybody tell me which side has caused more death and destruction? I can. Has anyone heard of the UN school just bombed by Israel? The UN gave the Israelis the location so they wouldn’t be bombed. Big mistake.
Many of you seem to agree that Israel has a “right to defend itself.” Israel has no such right. When a state chooses to take the freedom of a nation and hold its people hostage, steal land, and commit acts of war and terror on a daily basis against its population then it has absolutely no right to defend itself against acts of resistance. Unfortunately, instead of targeting armed Israeli soldiers and settler terrorists, the Palestinian resistance launches unguided rockets in the direction of Israeli cities, an act that only helps the enemy to justify their vicious campaign of terror.
If anyone here can explain why they would support Israel over a people who have been struggling for freedom, security and justice for 60 years then please be my guest. If it’s just old fashioned anti-Muslim and anti-Christian bigotry then write to your friends in the KKK or Kahane Khai instead and don’t waste my time.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/834937.html
Sam, thanks for your contribution. It says it all.
Isreal also claims that Hamas uses civilians as human shields. It is not uncomon for Isreal to move into a Palestinian home inhabited, seize all communication equipement from the occupants, take strategic positions in the houses and lunch their attacks on Hamas. Are’t the Palestinians being used as human shields by the Isreali army against their will? certainly they are.
The Isreali/zionist army are terrorists of the highest order. They deserve to suffer the same fate Areil Sharon had any God willing, they will all go bananas.
Thanks to President Chavez of Venezuela for ejecting the Isreal ambasador and Mosad spies from his countri. Good riddance. How I wish other countries follow suit.
The blood of the Palestinian children is not being spill in vain. For those in Isreal army who are committing these heinous crimes, I say to you, look at your own children and put them in Palestine.
The action of the government of Isreal and its army is pushing me to generate a total hatred for Jews and all Isrealis even though I know there are many peace loving, caring people like myself there. I will direct my anger and hatred only to the wicked such ad Olmert, Sharon, Levni, Benjamin, Peres, Barak etc who feed on blood of Palestinians.
They are modern day zombiesssssssssssss
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Just because the UN made a decision in 1947 does NOT not make that decision correct or just. Israel was formed in post WWII leading into cold-war mentality. It was illconceived from the outset. It should be repealed and both sides given an opportunity to negotiate terms. Certainly the Palestinians were not represented at the bargaining table the first go-round.
Jay, the Palistinians and the rest of the Arab world want the Jews to be driven into the sea…what is there to negotiate?
““America and the EU shamelessly joined Israel in ostracising and demonising the Hamas government and in trying to bring it down by withholding tax revenues and foreign aid. A surreal situation thus developed with a significant part of the international community imposing economic sanctions not against the occupier but against the occupied, not against the oppressor but against the oppressed. ““‘
–That really is the worst pile of crap Ive read in a while, the hamas government is demonizing itself, its a fascist mass murdering entity, who preaches not just the removal of Israel but the death of every jew on the planet. Hamas represents unfreedom in its purest form, they are not freedomfighers and can never be freedomfighters because what their fighting for has nothing to do with freedom or justice.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lsvqcp4aWF8
–The “palestinians” are a very convienient way for the surrounding arab states to hold focus away from their own internal problems.
”“As always, mighty Israel claims to be the victim of Palestinian aggression but the sheer asymmetry of power between the two sides leaves little room for doubt as to who is the real
victim.”“
War is not a mathematical equation, being the seemingly weaker party does not make you right or a victim especially not in the case of the religous facsists in Hamas. Israels blessing is their talents, if the arabs surrounding Israel had half the ability of the Israelis, Israel would have been overrun and destroyed already.
As for the civilian casualities their not even close to the deadly cost of the bombing of serbia by Nato, but with hamas using schools and hospitals for ammo dumps and firing positions Im sure they will rise, all on the head of the Hamas government.
This “professor” just demonstrates how worthless that title has become over the years, hes just another leftist talking head, his apparent jewish name does not give him any more weight.
Lament, you now call yourself Armadillo.
Well, you can call yourself any name. Maybe a Pighead should be the next.
You are such a coward. A narrow minded psycopath paid for by the zionist extermination machine.
Do you know that Isreal places it army amonsgt civilian in Gaza? they seize their houses and use them as launching spots so stop that crap about Hamas.
You are such a brainwashed little fool that I am not surprised that zionist extermination machine is using you in its propaganda.
You fail in your dubious actions. The true people of the world are not as dumb as you so dont think we buy your crap.
You know, my mother used to call me a Jew when I was younger. She said I was wicked and heartless. I never knew why this should earn me the name “a Jew”. It is only after I started getting information of the Isreal/Palestinain conflict during my late teens that I knew why my dear mother called me a Jew.
I am so happy that the strong will of the Palestinian people will never be broken no matter what force the giant golliath uses to crush them. Isreal can test one of its atomic weapons on the loving and peaceful people of Palestine but they still wontdie.
Their courage even at the end of the barel deserves my praise. No matter how long it takes, how many lives are lost, Vitory will be that of the Palestinians.
Isreal is run by a group of drug taking psycopaths who shal all end in the way of Areil Sharon, God willing.
Amen.
““You are such a coward. A narrow minded psycopath paid for by the zionist extermination machine.”“
–Your just revealing who you are by every little excremental ejection you make, little islamist facsist.
”“Do you know that Isreal places it army amonsgt civilian in Gaza? they seize their houses and use them as launching spots so stop that crap about Hamas.”“
–Its always funny when you try to turn reality around, if not for the death loving hamas terrorists hiding amongst civilians there would be no need for Israel to go in there and clean it up.
”“You are such a brainwashed little fool that I am not surprised that zionist extermination machine is using you in its propaganda.”“
–Hehe more of the hate, Just keep it coming little racist. Being called brainmwashed by an islamist is like being mad by charles manson, its sting is very mild.
”“You fail in your dubious actions. The true people of the world are not as dumb as you so dont think we buy your crap.”“
–Europeans are waking up to the reality of islam every day, your sick and twisted cult will not be allowed to destroy the world.
”“You know, my mother used to call me a Jew when I was younger. She said I was wicked and heartless. I never knew why this should earn me the name “a Jew”. It is only after I started getting information of the Isreal/Palestinain conflict during my late teens that I knew why my dear mother called me a Jew.”“
–That your mother is a racist bitch comes as no surprise, and shes raised a proper little bastard to boost.
”“I am so happy that the strong will of the Palestinian people will never be broken no matter what force the giant golliath uses to crush them. Isreal can test one of its atomic weapons on the loving and peaceful people of Palestine but they still wontdie.”“
–the psychopatic murderers that run “palestine” will be dealth with one way or another, they are about as peace loving as rabid hyenas and must be put down as such.
”“Their courage even at the end of the barel deserves my praise. No matter how long it takes, how many lives are lost, Vitory will be that of the Palestinians.”“
–These cowards that use children as shields and store weapons in schools and hospitals can never win anything, and offer only death to those that follow them and the example of their prophet the massmurdering child molesting pedophilic monster mohammed.
Isreal is run by a group of drug taking psycopaths who shal all end in the way of Areil Sharon, God willing.
–Israel represents the finest in human civilization a people who contributes to our shared evolution like no other group of people.
”“Amen.”“
–Im sure you mean allah ackbar your pretence to be anything but a muslim have failed.
““You are such a coward. A narrow minded psycopath paid for by the zionist extermination machine.”“
–Your just revealing who you are by every little excremental ejection you make, little islamist facsist.
”“Do you know that Isreal places it army amonsgt civilian in Gaza? they seize their houses and use them as launching spots so stop that crap about Hamas.”“
–Its always funny when you try to turn reality around, if not for the death loving hamas terrorists hiding amongst civilians there would be no need for Israel to go in there and clean it up.
”“You are such a brainwashed little fool that I am not surprised that zionist extermination machine is using you in its propaganda.”“
–Hehe more of the hate, Just keep it coming little racist. Being called brainmwashed by an islamist is like being called mad by charles manson, its sting is very mild.
”“You fail in your dubious actions. The true people of the world are not as dumb as you so dont think we buy your crap.”“
–Europeans are waking up to the reality of islam every day, your sick and twisted cult will not be allowed to destroy the world or bring it back into the dark ages.
”“You know, my mother used to call me a Jew when I was younger. She said I was wicked and heartless. I never knew why this should earn me the name “a Jew”. It is only after I started getting information of the Isreal/Palestinain conflict during my late teens that I knew why my dear mother called me a Jew.”“
–That your mother is a racist bitch comes as no surprise, and shes raised a proper little bastard to boost.
”“I am so happy that the strong will of the Palestinian people will never be broken no matter what force the giant golliath uses to crush them. Isreal can test one of its atomic weapons on the loving and peaceful people of Palestine but they still wontdie.”“
–the psychopatic murderers that run “palestine” will be dealth with one way or another, they are about as peace loving as rabid hyenas and must be put down as such.
”“Their courage even at the end of the barel deserves my praise. No matter how long it takes, how many lives are lost, Vitory will be that of the Palestinians.”“
–These cowards that use children as shields and store weapons in schools and hospitals can never win anything, and offer only death to those that follow them and the example of their prophet the massmurdering child molesting pedophilic monster mohammed and his sock puppet allah.
Isreal is run by a group of drug taking psycopaths who shal all end in the way of Areil Sharon, God willing.
–Israel represents the finest of human civilization a people who contributes to our shared evolution like no other group of people.
”“Amen.”“
–Im sure you mean allah ackbar your pretence to be anything but a muslim have failed.
Answer to Michael at January 5, 2009 06:51 PM
The Russians and other arms vendors kept the Arabs well stocked. Israel was always outnumbered and out gunned. YET THEY WON.
Arabs need to learn not to mess with Gods people.
Reply to dave m at January 6, 2009 08:48 AM
Big space daddy in the sky!!! AAAAH! Now you are talking.…
Is this not the real issue as to why there is no peace at the Geopolitical center of our world?
But with 3/4 of the worlds population believing in Big Daddy you have a problem. How can you convince us that Big Daddy is all just imagination.
Guys!!!!
Every one is just taking sides and fighting one another. If I were an arms dealer I could make a mint suplying you all with weapons.
Can there be no debate as to how to solve this crisis without weapons.
Reply to: Joe at January 6, 2009 10:25 AM
Actually the problem is more about which God has given the land to which people. Yaweh or Alah / Jew or Arab.
I would look for a suitable cave in a remote area and stock up because it sure looks as though we are going to blow ourselves back to the stone age.
Read Revelations.….Israel will prevail.…It’s in the Bible and God said so. Countries such as Russia, China, Saudi, Lebanon, Syria, Iran will suffer deeply under Israel’s might.
hi all..
many people claim that God is in their side, the statement like..Allah will punish israel and many more statements that made Allah looks BAD, GOD who just love the war…
ask to ourself, is it our trully GOD?
Jew, Palestinians or other nations, all..have the same right to live, to love and to believe.
hi all..
many people claim that God is in their side, the statement like..Allah will punish israel and many more statements that made Allah looks BAD, GOD who just love the war…
ask to ourself, is it our trully GOD?
Jew, Palestinians or other nations, all..have the same right to live, to love and to believe.
You are blind as Gaza is rich!Israel is winning the war…Its plain as day!Anyone who is able to do what they do,is a miracle…America,tries the exact tactics and can’t produce the same…Its a Jewish victory world…Our victory in Iraq started
by:using Israeli tactics.
That is the point:Choose your side/God!And no matter what,it produces wars and fights etc…You
can’t be anything else,therefore,be a man!The Book
James explains wars…But your side won’t listen!
Hey mister name caller,why is he a coward by stating historical facts?You are a Nazi in half,it
shows its morphe!Satan,transforms into an angel of
light.
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