The IDF is operating to a well thought out war plan on the ground as well as in the air. This is a description of IDF ground operations from strategypage.com:
For the last two years, the Israeli Army has been developing new tactics and equipment for fighting Hamas and Hezbollah-type gunmen in urban areas. The Israelis have built training areas, with dense urban construction, and run many of its ground troops through special exercises. How well the new tactics and training are will be seen in the next week or so. The new tactics are meant to minimize civilian casualties, while enabling Israeli troops to quickly move through the area and kill or capture enemy personnel and equipment. Reservist units that have not gone through the special training are being sent to the new training centers for at least a few days of instruction on the new tactics. These new methods, while officially secret, apparently involve some new fighting tactics, and lots of electronic warfare. Hamas has had to operate with both cell phones and landline communications down. In addition, their walkie-talkies are sometimes jammed, and apparently listened to carefully by Israeli electronic warfare troops. This is causing command and coordination problems for Hamas fighters.
What we are seeing here is an IDF version of the British Army urban tactics used in the 2003 Iraqi invasion at Basra, with IDF special forces reprising the role of the SAS.
It has added to it a truly extensive human intelligence and electronic/information warfare system. This is a partial description of that system from an IT industry pro-Israeli blogger:
Well, in my professional life I deal with complex IT systems, and I’ve given a bit of thought to this issue seen from that perspective:
First, Israel clearly has created a sophisticated GIS (geographic information system). A system that records tens of thousands of buildings, their location, and their distance from each other. Then there’s a database with the names of the tens of thousands of families who live in the buildings, and the phone number of each family. The system has the ability to identify all the families and phone numbers that could be affected by an attack on any given building. Finally, given the numbers involved, there must be a system that automatically makes concurrent phone calls to dozens of families, since everybody has to have the same ten-minute warning.
Ah, and someone put tens of thousands of piece of information into that database. Such a system costs real money, takes time to set up, and since it is obviously operating close to flawlessly, it was tested, fiddled with, tested, fiddled with, and tested again. The purpose, I remind you, is to save the lives of thousands of Palestinians who happen to have murderous neighbors.
Since the relational software we used to map the Sunni and Shia tribes of Iraq, and destroy Al-Qaeda in Iraq, came from the Israelis, you can imagine the kind of intelligence that software combined with the GIS (geographic information system) mentioned above can generate in real time.
The battle reports I have seen thus far indicate that the IDF has cut up and isolated Hamas in various urban islands in Gaza, this allows:
- IDF Arabic speaking Sayeret undercover teams to conduct “body snatches” of Hamas leadership or to obtain intelligence from Palestinian snitches under the cover of night.
- IDF conventional forces to go in at night with good intelligence to conduct ground operations that are seizing/flattening key urban terrain or supply points to flush Hamas into the open.
- IDF sniper teams to set up at night at vantage point to engage/control the movement of visibly armed Hamas gunmen.
- IDF to take far more biometric information from military aged male Palestinians in their custody for it’s intelligence data bases and.
- IDF to conduct air and artillery strikes during the day, using information from the above night operations, to minimize Palestinian casualties.
Hamas is going to be well thrashed and the majority of it’s leaders, military supplies and infrastructure will be killed or destroyed. The longer Operation Cast Lead lasts, the more Hamas will be thrashed and broken up into family/clan based factions.
I don’t expect the Olmert government to finish the job — AKA destroy enough of Hamas to allow Fatah to take over straight away. The “post-Operation Cast Iron” Gaza will see a power struggle between surviving factions of Hamas, the local family based unaffiliated criminal gangs and Fatah supported criminal gangs/clans (like 150 strong Pro-Fatah Helles clan) reinserted into the rubble of Gaza.
The key to the “rubble phase” will be if Israel occupies the border between Egypt and Gaza for an extended period after the main military operations are completed. This will prevent the covert intervention of Iran into Gaza — through the utterly corrupt Egyptian border guards — for the duration of Israeli “mini-occupation” of the Gaza-Egyptian border.
– Military Curmudgeon
...
Nathan Hodge at the Wired “Danger Room” blog is coming to similar conclusions WRT IDF tactics:
Gaza Ground Campaign Mirrors Battle of Sadr City?
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2009/01/gaza-ground-cam.html#more
Oh god 124 comments in 1 day nothing like a israeli story to bring out the crazies thou i realy liked the guy who said israel couldnt defeat hamas nor could anyone because of some devine prophet crap.…god helps those who help themselves he wont do your job for you.
And yes israel can win if they keep strong and fight to the knife. Heck i bet israel got as much info on our battles in iraq as we have
Interesting. An Israeli reset button.
I hope they dont win.
After the destruction brought on our country because of these minions of Iran, the world needs to wake up to the Shia corruption and megalomaniac delusions. Why can’t the Hamas learn from their brothers in the West Bank? What the Sunni’s have learned is that if we want peace, Israel is a more than willing partner. To Hamas, from the Sunni world, stop shooting rockets at Israel and you will find these so-called “apes and pigs” are more than happy to sit down and talk peace.
–Muhammad Dief, Beirut Lebanon
Well, the Hamas fighters in Gaza Strip would need to be absolutely worthless cowards or idiots if they couldn’t inflict at least 200 casualties once the IDF begins searches in urban areas.
A couple days of TTP update are no immortality magic.
Of course Israel will win. How could they lose? Israel is ruthless when it comes to fighting because they are fighting for their survival. They don’t have anywhere else to go.
I just can’t see how Hamas thinks they are benefiting from launching rockets other than to “cleanse the world of Jews”. All they are doing is causing violence, kind of lame.
Lets just hope that no one in the Middle East has nukes. That would not be good for obvious reasons. Does Israel have nukes? I would assume some American Ohio’s are placed in the Med and would probably lob a few if it ever got that far.
I hope his doesn’t cause a WWIII. That obviously would not be good. Its like the Cold War all over again but without the Commies. The world is really heading to hell. Start building those Fallout/Zombie Invasion/Alien Attack/Armageddon bunkers again. Like those Vaults in Fallout 3.
How much do you want to bet me that Israel “wins”? I will bet you money, when the IDF pulls out, there will be Hamas rockets flying over their heads towards Israel, if not at that very moment, within 24 hours.
Because, when this ends like the operations in Jenin and Lebanon, and we start the slide into the next round of BS, I guess everyone will ignore the fact it went nowhere, and achieved nothing.
And if Hamas snatches a couple of IDF soldiers and holds them? What will be the opinion then?
A complete and utter waste of time.
To Israel a soldier held captive is a soldier already dead. They have held a strong policy of not negotiating with terrorists like that.
But really, this does go no where. In the end its the same. People dead and they still hate each other. Humph.
After the destruction brought on our country because of these minions of Iran, the world needs to wake up to the Shia corruption and megalomaniac delusions. Why can’t the Hamas learn from their brothers in the West Bank? What the Sunni’s have learned is that if we want peace, Israel is a more than willing partner. To Hamas, from the Sunni world, stop shooting rockets at Israel and you will find these so-called “apes and pigs” are more than happy to sit down and talk peace.
–Muhammad Dief, Beirut Lebanon
Posted by: Muhammad Dief at January 6, 2009 05:33 PM
—————
amen one of the best post ive heard on this topic
any soldier that hammas gets its hands on is dead
Israel is fighting for redemption. Hamas’ agenda is not Palestinian statehood but death of Jews. Regime change (Fatah) would be great but several partners, UN, Egypt, and the EU will have to commit resources to see this through because a temporary Israeli occupation will lead to more chaos. Obviously there has to be an end game but Israel needed to do this operation to assure its citizens in the South that they are as cherished as those who live in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Haifa.
Hamas’ ideology can’t be killed but hopefully Gazan’s will seek moderates to lead them to a peaceful existence.
Here is what is really happening in Gaza, for those of you who still have the nerve to support Israel.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ev6ojm62qwA&feature=ytn%3Amptnews
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That youtube video is disturbing — children being killed and injured is never nice. However, I’d hardly say that the video is showing what’s “really happening” -
1. Wouldn’t be half suprised if that apartment building that was bombed had some Hamas fighters right next to the children playing on the roof.
2. Did you notice the amount of “civilians” running around with AKs slung over their shoulders hearding children into the hospital?
3. Of course he’s only seen one “Soldier”. They’re not wearing uniforms, they’re running around in civilian clothing. The only thing that needs to happen to turn a dead Hamas fighter into a dead civilian is for someone to run up and take his rifle away.
Given media reports like the following, Why should be believe that the you tube video isn’t the same thing?
=========================
French TV Shows Gazans Killed By Hamas, Blames Israel
Share Post PrintJanuary 6, 2009 Posted by John at 3:28 PM
Public television network France 2 has admitted that earlier today, it showed photos of dozens of bodies of members of Hamas and civilians who it said were killed in an Israeli bombing raid on January 1.
Only problem: the photos were actually taken in 2005, and the people depicted were killed not by Israel, but when “a truck full of explosives blew up in the Jabaliya Refugee Camp.” The terrorists, in other words, blew themselves up accidentally and took a number of civilians with them.
Thank god we did not have YouTube in 1944.
Dresden, Nagasaki.
Civillians die in war, that is all.
The IDF is doing its best not to kill too many, for obvious reasons. But, this war must be faught.
Acchieving a victory now is harder than ever for Israel.
How can I justify this? Well before this conflict there was a governing organisation in Gaza called Hamas. If Israel could make peace with Hamas then no more missiles. Now however hamas has had its leadership and organisation demolished — leaving in its wake a large number of small heavily armed groups, all of which hate Israel.
The advantage of assinating enemy leadership:
Chaos and demoralisation in enemy rank and file.
The disadvantage:
Noone on the opposing side has control of there forces, making surrender impossible.
There is no victory until both sides agree to stop fighting.
There are two ways to do this. Either both reach a compromise, or they fight until one of them is dead. Those is the only way wars end.
Israel could kill everyone in Gaza, that is within their power. But as much criticism as Israel receives (some of it deserved), they have not reached that point yet. I do not think they will reach that point.
Hamas does not have the power to kill everyone in Israel. All Hamas can do is launch some rockets, kill some civilians, and royally piss everyone off. Thus, in a “total war” scenario, only Israel can win. Hamas does not believe this, however. They believe that Allah will aid them in victory. This irrational belief prevents compromise — when both sides are assured of winning, why give advantage to the enemy?
Where does this irrational belief come from? The leadership? The clerics? The people themselves? Once you discover the way to change their beliefs, then you will end the war.
Sounds like Olmert is getting ready to fall all over himself to make sure that doesn’t happen.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,477244,00.html
We should all be watching and paying attention because Israel’s Olmert days is a window into our next 4+yrs.
An eye for 1000 eyes… Poor Isreal meeting resistance to it’s ever expanding territory. What would you do if some foreing power takes your home away and gives it to someone else, based solely on their faith. Surrender? Tell em no prob, I like the refugee camp life… Id’ lob some rocks or rockets or whatever I had at the occupying force. I’d try to make life miserable for them. So please check out the 1949 Isreal border compared to today… Who do you think they took all that land from (yes Egypt in 67 too) OR ask an Israeli politician to draw Isreal’s land borders today… They won’t because if they do, they may not be able to annex more Palestinian land. I honestly though ordinairy Isreali’s would have more compassion and forsight to realize that they are the new perpetrators of genocide. Stop the violence. Revert to old border /boundries. Without its reason for existance, Hamas/Hizbolah will disapear. 8 yrs of Bush have helped many see through the talking points, and verbal distractions etc… unfortunately it obviously hasn’t helped everyone think critically and obtain empathy. Good luck to you.
An eye for 1000 eyes… Poor Isreal meeting resistance to it’s ever expanding territory. What would you do if some foreing power takes your home away and gives it to someone else, based solely on their faith. Surrender? Tell em no prob, I like the refugee camp life… Id’ lob some rocks or rockets or whatever I had at the occupying force. I’d try to make life miserable for them. So please check out the 1949 Isreal border compared to today… Who do you think they took all that land from (yes Egypt in 67 too) OR ask an Israeli politician to draw Isreal’s land borders today… They won’t because if they do, they may not be able to annex more Palestinian land. I honestly though ordinairy Isreali’s would have more compassion and forsight to realize that they are the new perpetrators of genocide. Stop the violence. Revert to old border /boundries. Without its reason for existance, Hamas/Hizbolah will disapear. 8 yrs of Bush have helped many see through the talking points, and verbal distractions etc… unfortunately it obviously hasn’t helped everyone think critically and obtain empathy. Good luck to you.
Ablefable,
Hamas wants to get rid of Isreal, not just kick their settlers out of the occupied territories. The only solution they are willing to accept is one where there is one palestinian state. The delusion that they can achieve this is the principal reason this conflict persists.
I think people are forgetting — war is political, and victory is psychological. Israel may be able to destroy Hamas — but is it really victory if in 10 years, there’s another generation of Palestinians so desperate that they resort to violence?
I think the article needs clarification — Israel can probably win the battle of the Gaza Strip, on a tactical and probably operational level. But winning the war, as Hannibal discovered after Cannae, is a completely different problem.
JGH
Win? Haven’t they already lost by launching the assault?
Something to do with an election, one suspects.
After Mogadishu, the US Armed Forces turned to Israel to learn how to fight and “win” urban operations against terrorists (http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/1386/mike_davis_on_the_pentagon_s_urban_war_planning.) This was despite the fact that 60 years of battering the Palestinians into submission hasn’t brought peace.
Only after a change of SecDef from the Neo-Con Rumsfeldt to the Realist Gates were the Armed Forces allowed to address the political issues — and stand up the Sons of Iraq. One might hope that the US experiences in Iraq would filter back to the IDF .…
JUST IN CASE nobody already has…
Does anyone care to address the amount of civilian casualties in Gaza? Even if the figure of 900 dead quoted by Palestinian organizations is highballing it, I wouldn’t be surprised to find that 2 or 3 Palestinian civilians had been killed for each actual militant.
The techniques quoted in the bulleted list seem pretty effective and humane. Body snatches, snipers, night raids all have a lower potential for civilian death than shells and surgical missile strikes. (The *hell* a missile is ever surgical.) At least one middle-of-the-road Israeli news source, Haaretz, stated that the military was dropping cluster bombs — I hope they were mistaken, but if they aren’t, it indicates an overkill, callous mentality.
I’m speaking from a position of sympathy to Palestinian (or any) civilians — the majority of them are not hurting anyone, but they’re still ending up in the ground. Am I mistaken?
I think I agree with a couple comments in this thread — this incursion isn’t really going to result in a “win.” The rockets won’t stop, and Gazans will get even more desperate.
Not only can Israel NOT win this engagement they have already lost it, tactically and strategically. It is mystifying how they think that the death of nearly 1000 palestinians due to bombings will achieve either the short term objective of reducing rocket attacks or the long term objective of a two-state solution.
Hamas, is not just an organization, it is a mentality or more precisely an ideology. You can no more ‘destroy’ Hamas than you can ‘destroy’ racism. This is what people believe.
Anyone who has ever had even 5 minutes worth of counter insurgecy training knows that Rule 1 is to separate the populous from the insurgents. Indescriminate bombing only allows Gazans to easily side with and support the radicals in Hamas.
Israel has lost the moral highground and their days are numbered in this region. Hamas knows it, Hezbollah knows it, Syria knows it and increasingly I am inclined to believe that Israel if figuring it out. By the year 2047 this little 100-year experiment known as Israel will be one for the history books.
If Israel wants to prevent this eventuality they need to dramatically readjust their strategy, tactics militarily and their behaviour dimplomatically.