The Pentagons top weapons analysts are reportedly arguing that the Navy does not face a fighter gap, something Boeing and various lawmakers have argued is a pressing problem the country must fix.
A congressional source tells us that apparently PA&E is convinced that there isnt actually a strike fighter shortfall, while the Navy is convinced theyll be 240-plus planes short of Naval strike fighters Were trying to figure out how PA&E can possibly come to this conclusion, but were not getting many answers.
Several senior OSD sources told me that PA&E is making this argument, based on a range of capabilities offered by the Air Force.
PA&Es contention is that we have excess Air Force strike fighter capacity, so the Navy shortfall doesnt affect us strategically But I dont think the Air Force can land their fighters on a carrier, our congressional source said wryly.
The fighter numbers were summarized recently in a study by the Congressional Research Services naval analyst, Ron ORourke. The Navy projects that a current strike-fighter shortfall of about 15 aircraft will grow to about 30 aircraft in FY2009, to more than 50 aircraft in FY2016, and to more than 90 aircraft in FY2017-FY2020, before declining to more than 50 aircraft in FY2021 and to roughly zero aircraft by FY2025. At its peak in FY2017, the Navy states, the Dept. of Navy projected strike-fighter shortfall will be 125 aircraft, of which 69 will be Navy strike-fighters, ORourke wrote.
[Since writing the above, I received the newest CRS analysis. It doubles the estimated shortfall. This is what the report, by Christopher Bolckum, says: “The Navy projects that if no additional action is taken, a DON strike-fighter shortfall of about 15 aircraft in FY2009, to 50 aircraft in FY2010, and to a peak of 243 aircraft in FY2018. The projected strike-fighter shortfall is hoped to decrease after FY2018, but the DON will still have a gap of over 50 strike fighters in 2025. At its peak in FY2018, the projected DON strike-fighter shortfall will be 129 Navy strike-fighters and 114 Marine Corps strike-fighters.
“This projected strike-fighter shortfall is twice as big as the Navys earlier projected shortfall of 125 aircraft. 9 (See Figure 1, below) The earlier estimate was the Navys, most optimistic projection because it assumed, among other things, that the service lives of Hornets could be extended from the current planning figure of 8,000 flight hours to 10,000 flight hours.” You can read it here.]
Were trying to get more information from Boeing here at the Navy League conference.
Boeing has been making a valiant effort to convince the Pentagon and the public that the Navys fighter gap should be closed using F-18 E/Fs. These planes are cheaper than F-35s, are already available in production models and they meet the services current operational requirements, the company has argued.
{ 18 comments… read them below or add one }
Or we could finaly make the move to a heavy attack drone that can operate from carriers and back up the pilots and most importantly go into places its considered suicide for manned aircraft.
Epic fail alert.
Grobal warming enthusist get rescued…by oil tanker.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/8034027.stm
Its gonna be a good day tater
Christopher Bolkcom passed away suddenly just last Friday — the least you could do is spell his name right.
Valcan, that is too funny. The oil tanker captain should have killed his tanker’s dirty, polluting engines and made the eco-snobs row them to port.
Good Morning Folks,
Valcan’s smart a** response, regardless of it’s lack of elegance is about right on tis issue. The future in Naval aviation is in the X-47 and the Predator Avenger. The F-35 will be the end on the line for manned combat aircraft.
One thing that is not cited here by Colin and I know he knows this, is the excess stress and demands the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have put on the F/A-18 of the Marines and Navy. Flying 24/7 when on station with many missions going over 12 hours and a half dozen in air refuelings is taking years off the life span of the air frame of the F/A-18. I did some calculation a few weeks back on this in a post and for anyone interested they can look it up.
In short the loss of F/A-18′s due to the demands of the wars is not being replaced on a one for one basis. The gamble here by the Navy of course is that the X-47 will come along faster then expected, and it just might. The predator Avenger should be ready for the fleet this coming Fall. When operational the Predator Avenger should be able to take up a lot of the slack form the F/A-18′s in it’s combat missions, especially over Afghanistan.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
I don’t understand how they can spend billions on a a mouse habitat project in San Fran and then cancel a project like the f-22 that employs so many people.
I’m lost on that one!
@ Byron Skinner
so X-47 is the A-6/a-12 replacemand?
Cause thats what the Navy needs besides a real tanker and a ASW-plane
The X-47 or a derivative thereof is supposed to come on line around 2025 as currently projected. The F-35C is supposed to get going around 2015. We are already overhauling F-18C/Ds to get more life out of the airframes until the F-35C can replace them. Problem is the C/Ds will be taken out of service quicker than the F-35C can replace them. More X-47s in 2025 will not help the upcoming shortfall.
That doesn’t take into account the fact the Navy currently uses the USMC aviation squadrons as part of Carrier Air Wings. The USMC is going all STOVL with the F-35B. How does that work on a carrier? If it did we would already have AV-8s flying off the flat tops.
If you buy more E/Fs to close the gap we will either need fewer F-35s as a result or scrap airplanes with life still left in them.
We might as well drop the number of carriers we have, doesn’t work too well if they don’t have any aircraft flying off the deck. (sarcasm btw)
DC2
Legacy Hornets were never designed for a long refurb life. Barrel replacement for example is a fluke in the program and doesn’t address all wear. The original Hornet was designed in an era of the Cold War and want of a low cost light fighter. It was designed to fly x amount of hours and be thrown in the trash.
The other option to replacing old Hornets is increasing the number of helicopters in the air wing to where the boat looks like a helicopter carrier with half the number of fixed wings.
Yeah the old Hornets need to be replaced. Smash, bang, on the carrier deck in the salt air isn’t easy on an airframe. Even the first Super Hornets delivered to the fleet 10 years ago are starting to show some good wear.
If you have to ask the price of carrier aviation, you probably can’t afford it.
This has less to do with an “aircraft gap” or “missile gap” than a flying pork gap.
Haven’t we been told drones are the future of military aviation?
Once upon a time everyone knew all air combat would be high speed and fought with missiles at BVR. didn’t happen.
I don’t see any evidence just yet that AI can fly an aircraft effectively in close combat, either. It’s a huge step going from something easier than a Cessna to maneuvering.
As a sim enthusiast I can routinely defeat AI pilots in disadvantaged situations, even when I allow them to sustain g’s above 10 or 11.
Making AI that can beat people is not necessarily possible. Remote control involves too much latency and wouldn’t work either.
I’ll believe in robot fighters when I see them.
Ahhhh….. if only the movie “Stealth” were real.
Navalise the Raptor
Build more Super Hornets
Buy some surrender-monkey Rafales
If you think about it, do the drones have to outfight their manned adversaries? I mean, it’d be nice but not totally necessary. We can mix drone fighters with piloted vehicles, allowing for things such as sending in drones as bait, hiding manned fighters in groups of drones to kill OPFOR thinking they are in for an easy kill, etc.
Pelosi’s mouse project is thirty million. I’m not sure how much F-22 you can buy for 30 million. Spare parts?
Navalizing the Raptor won’t help. It just makes the raptors more expensive in a time where the raptor is fighting for it’s life.
Maybe we should just continue building the airplanes we have. Keep a few squadrons of F-22 around. JSF is clearly not meeting the challenges asked of it…roll some heads and try to fix JSF.
If you think about it, do the drones have to outfight their manned adversaries? I mean, it’d be nice but not totally necessary. We can mix drone fighters with piloted vehicles, allowing for things such as sending in drones as bait, hiding manned fighters in groups of drones to kill OPFOR thinking they are in for an easy kill, etc.
Thats about what i always figured. Have a expensive tier 5 fighter that though amazing you can only feild in small numbers (aka a raptor be it a naval version or the current raptor). Then have a number of robust mass producable and semi autonomus strike UCAV. That can assist the pilot. They deliver the bombs on target the pilots defend the airspace. Eventually just augment the fighters with UCAV fighters for support.
JSF isnt even out yet in the Navalized version. Plus naval versions are different from normal airforce aircraft in many ways. There tougher for one.
Charles,
Actually the F-35 is EXCEEDING expectations.
Good Morning Vulcan,
Not some bad ideas, but dated. Reports fro Nellis AFB where unmanned fighters, in simulations, have gone against manned fighters (F-22?), the unmanned had no problems besting the manned fighter with (9+G) turns in close combat, it was a the jocks say, ring around the rosy, and in the stand off, well it wasn’t even close.
Their are several (like 187) reasons why the AF canned the X45 early, it was to good. The Navy hopefully is looking to the future when the chores of the fighter plane will be left to software.
Now I guess I will hear about the Su.35. The Russian Generation 4.5 fighter. I’m waiting for someone to defend it’s 51 minute career as a justification for the F-22 or the F-35. As for the Mig 35, it will be made in India, ’nuff said, the Chinese J12/13, well the Chinese still have to field the J-10 (Mig 29 1960′s technology).
Navy vs. AF,.for control of the skies, It would be an interesting pi**ing contest to watch.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner