A June 18 AP story reports that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) plans to launch a Taepodong-2 ballistic missile toward Hawaii in early July — possible on July 4.
The missile has a maximum range of 4,000 miles, and so will land at least 500 miles short of Hawaii. Coming so soon after Kim Jong Il’s second-ever nuclear test on May 25, one wonders what the isolated and eccentric Communist dictator is really up to.
Some analysts have said that the nuclear test, in defiance of international pressures, was intended mainly for its effect on domestic DPRK politics. Kim recently annointed his younger son, little-known Kim Jong Un, as his successor, in what pundits describe as a peculiar North Korean-style Communist dynasty. If founding father of the North Korean state, Kim Il Sung, can be labeled Kim I (“Kim the First”), that makes Kim Jong Il become Kim II. His second son, now elevated to crown prince, would then become Kim III when ailing Kim II dies, which might be soon. As one sign of the raising of Kim Jong Un within North Korean politics and society (the two are closely related), he was recently granted a special name, “Brilliant Comrade,” similar in tone to his father’s “Dear Leader.”
In understanding Kim II’s real motives behind these dramatic weapon tests, we need to remember that he wants what he wants, not what we think he wants or ought to want. To fail to focus on the infamously enigmatic Kim solely from his own perspective is to commit “mirroring” — always a mistake in modern geopolitics.
Much of the time, a dictator’s top priority is to maintain his/her own power. In the case of an actual or de facto monarch, there is also a powerful drive to keep the throne within the family, for a dynasty that goes on for many generations. If Kim Jong Il is acting now like King Kim II, which he has been for years to some degree, he may be thinking now as King Kim II as well. The self-imposed isolation of his well defended country would be one element of the throne’s self-perpetuation. Establishing a clear heir to the throne would be another.
A very important third would be the need for foreign exchange monies with which to feed and clothe his people — and with which to keep his military happy enough to maintain him and his offspring in power forever. A big international concern is that Kim II might sell a working, weaponized nuke to terrorists, perhaps for the “black market going rate” of $100 million. In these monarchical terms, his goal in doing so would be to refill the royal coffers for a while.
If the second underground nuke test was a weird form of fireworks celebration for Brilliant Comrade’s annointment, the impending ICBM test might be a gesture demanding international respect for this Kim Dynasty, combined with what could well be a gesture intended as a ransom note in a case of global nuclear blackmail — more properly, of grandiose extortion.
Why wouldn’t China offer to buy out any nukes that Kim II might move close to selling, perhaps at a price of two or ten times the going rate for the ilk of al Qaeda? Beijing could simply provide to Kim Jong Il, as “foreign aid,” a few briefcases full of a tiny fraction of the U.S. Treasury bonds they own. This would be a bargain, compared to the benefits to ultra-ambitious and autocratic China of maintaining peace and stability in Asia and preventing the global destabilization that a terrorist nuke blast would surely create. After all, China continues to show some disregard for human rights, so why should it care overly much for the welfare of Kim II’s subjects? Foreign aid like this would actually or at least potentially improve the welfare of those subjects.
It’s possible, at least as a hypothetical case study worth a little thinking about, that Kim II would be perfectly happy for his North Korea to continue on forever as some sort of Magical Kingdom, lost in a hidden valley of his own creation like a latter-day Red Shangri La. If so, then the multinational carrot-and-stick strategy combining diplomacy with sanctions needs enough flexibility to give Dear Leader and Brilliant Comrade what they desire. If the U.S. wants to continue a leadership role in applying “talk therapy” to solve the problem of the Kims, then the Obama Administration might do well to view North Korea as some sort of evil but negotiable Camelot.
– Joe Buff
{ 38 comments… read them below or add one }
Mad The guy has survived this long not by being mad but playing a great game of brinksmanship. He knows how far to push and what is too far. Creating crisises keeps the attention (which they crave) on N Korea and keeps them on the world stage.
No way will he target Hawaii…he’s not stupid.
What would our wimp in chief do anyways.
Have a smoke? Work in the garden common this guy is weak.
Spend how much trailing a ship, just putting along behind, either do something or don’t but stop looking like such a dam WIMP!
No disreespect to the armed forces or navy etc your all great just the boss much of a rock.
Flying Fart: Well we do have info on things Kim has done and is doing, plus some info on the things he wants or needs. I assure you in the most friendly imaginable terms that I have all my fingers on my laptop keyboard and none in any of my own or someone else’s bodily orifices! By “traing” do you mean “trying”? But that is exactly the point. Sanctions haven’t worked yet so why should “even more sanctions now” do any good? And blockades/quarantines can never be depended on to be 100% leakproof — every blockade in history has had its successful blockade runners. Besides, blockades that don’t aim to starve out a people altogether, such as quarantines against nuclear weapons, just delay the problem, they don’t solve anything. Remember, the Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved by back-channel negotiations about a quid pro quo between removing USSR’s missiles on Cuba and our own missiles in Turkey.
There is nothing that says he is going to target Hawaii…launching a missile in the direction of Hawaii != targeting.
But I agree with the author – first and foremost a dictator’s priority is to stay in power. The problem, however, is what happens when that power is on the brink of collapse and they have nothing to lose. What would the NK regime do if it had nuclear weapons and in some future conflict, they were about to lose power?
when youre going for a high altitude EMP pulse 500 miles is enough to black out hawaii and maybe parts of CA. could you imagine all the looting/mayhem from the illegals, black seperatists,muslims, and klansmen all at once.Osam i mean obama would focus on the social aspects of this and leave korea and our troopers there to their own fates.
Creating a perpetual state of conflict is an excellent way of keeping your populations gaze focused on an external threat and not focused on the fact that your country is sliding into poverty, third world status and irrelevance.
What needs to happen is to have some bombs with either cyrillic or mandarin characters come raining down on Pyongyang. If it was their neighbors to the north that decided enough was enough, we could end this regime once and for all time. We won’t do it for one main reason, and that being lots of artillery that could rain shells onto the Korean Peninsula, especially on a major metropolitan area which is Seoul.
We could easily wipe North Korea off the map but know this, unless the South agrees to what we do, we won’t start a war that they will be paying the heavier price for.
I have to agree with the author, this is about nothing more than establishing a permanent monarchy. I feel sorry for the people of NK, they will be slaves for the next 1000 years because with nukes there is nothing anybody can do about it. Not that anybody would try. The U.S. and U.N. always talk about human rights, but never do anything to back up the talk. If we truly believed in human rights, we would launch a pre-emptive strike immediately. Short term would be pure hell (politically, economically, death toll, etc.), but it would save millions of humans from 1000 years of slavery. There is no other option. Once NK has a viable nuclear arsenal, they have the ultimate blackmail, and the rest of the world can never do anything.
“All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing” – nothing is exactly what we have done, and all we will ever do as long as we continue to elect chilren instead of real men.
North Korea actually was liberated by Gen. MacArthur,but China entered the war & pushed our army back & Truman fired MacArthur before he could regain the ground lost to China. So you can blame Harry S Truman for the present situation that North Korea is presently in as far as the suffering & famine of her citizens.
Kim Jong Il is nothing more than a puppet of China AND Russia. You can be sure that those are Chinese AND Russian missiles being launched by North Korea. North Korea is no better off than Zimbabwe under Robert Mugabe. If Mugabe started shooting missiles everywhere & tested nuclear weapons,NOBODY would believe that he was able to do it independently,but that he had foreign help(like China). North Korea is the same. North Korea is China’s “Cuba.” I believe a missile will be launched from North Korea & it will reach Hawaii &/or the continental U.S.(maybe even New York City). The question should be,”who does the missile actually belong to?”"Does it belong to China or Russia?”
Something is going to happen to make us realize that our government has been lying to us all along about what North Korea can & cannot do.
“THE SCRIPT HAS NOW BEEN WRITTEN”
“A hair-raising confrontation in Korea may, towards the end of the period, threaten man’s very survival.”
[Peter Lemesurier, "The Armageddon Script", p. 223]
Um, General MacArthur was fired because he wanted to bomb mainland China, and when the President said he couldn’t he tried to take the matter public to force the President to let him. Firing him did two things: it stopped a nuclear (China was deeply allied with Russia at the time) war, and it preserved the existence of a military run by civilians. Overall I’d say we can thank Truman for that one.
Here’s a hypothetical that has me a little concerned. Imagine NK firing the ICBM as some sort of nuclear dirty bomb. Even if it can’t reach mainland Hawaii wouldn’t the cloud of radioactive material moving east wipe all living things from the islands and possibly harming the US if for some reason it did not rain? (Wasn’t this the way Russia avoided destroying Moscow after Chernobyl, by cloud seeding over less populated areas in-between?)
To Anon at June 23, 2009 09:46 PM:
Short answer: The fallout from a single nuclear weapon is not that much to worry about. The effects are way overrated by the general public.
I agree with Ed.
But one of my biggest worries is that China or Russia will use north korea to wage a proxy war on the us/europe. And by that I mean faciliate selling nuclear material and knowledge to extremists through north korea. One of the two countries has already sold conventional weapons through them in the Iran-Iraq conflict.
As a regime it is too isolated, ecentric and unpredictable. It has already proven impenetrable to spying or manipulation. It does this by keeping its millions of citizens in the complete dark about the outside world.
I blame the chickenshit shallow south koreans. I think we are screwed.
In my opinion Barrack is just the man to create a war plan that actually works, the problem is executing it.
In my opinion Barrack is just the man to create a war plan that actually works, the problem is executing it.
Posted by: Subby at June 24, 2009 05:22 AM
No, Barrack is just the man to make sure to create a peace plan!! Fuzzy bunnies.
Barrack Obama after all said he was against war so it will be a peace plan. He will then be ignored by anyone with a ounce of balls.
Anyways this is all to do about nothing. Kimmy isnt mad…hes sad hes just so ronery oh so ronery!!
North Korea shows that if you play hardball with the US they always have to talk in the end. China knows that as does Iran. The mistakes that Saddam made in trying to appease the US just made his regime appear weak.
American delegations are not viewed the same way anymore. It’s a hell of a legacy that Bush has left behind.
If you’ve got any evidence that there is such a thing as a black market in nuclear weapons where a warhead can be sold for $100m (or any other amount), it would be interesting to see it. As far as I am aware there has never been any suggestiong that such a market exists outside the minds of thriller-writers and the fantasy of wannabe terrorists.
Of course there is a trade in nuclear technology -thanks to AQ Khan & Co – but selling warheads to terrorists is pure Tom Clancy.
Wembley: Your point is very well taken, but rest assured I haven’t read any Clancy since he had Jack Ryan become POTUS! The info comes from things I’ve seen scattered in the non-fiction press the past few years, mostly regarding potentially for-sale “loose nukes” from poorly secured former-Soviet stocks. The experts quoted were anonymous “informed U.S. government sources.” Presumably any actual “Tango A-Bomb” sale by DPRK would involve a process of negotiation, with the starting point bid/asked prices fluctuating dependent on things like inflation, global economic conditions, foreign currency exchange rates, and so on.
To the poster “Roy Smith”:
————————————————————————————————————————
You wrote: “The question should be,’who does the missile actually belong to?’ ‘Does it belong to China or Russia?’ ”
1) Why bother with the missile’s exact origins: Is any missile really so dangerous? Why not checking the warhead design?
2) You can always find out “afterwards”.
3) Speaking of nuclear proliferators: Did you ever blame and defend some punishment for the British and the French (the U.S. Americans?) for supplying all sorts of nuke tech to psychopath nation “Israel” since the ’50s, including nuclear-capable attack planes? Or do you believe that the Jews invented it all by themselves by smashing their heads against the Wailing Wall?
Is “Israel” maybe untouchable for you…?
————————————————————————————————————————
You wrote: “I believe a missile will be launched from North Korea & it will reach Hawaii &/or the continental U.S.(maybe even New York City).”
1) So what? The test missile will most probably be fired bearing no warhead at all. Even crashing civilian Russian satellites have more radioactive mat
If North Koreas has nukes or not is really irrelevant.
If they were mad they just have to fire some shells into Seoul to cause a mass panic. Just to make their point at the bargaining table.
Fact they did not done that by now is beacuse they like their regime to survive.
North Korea doesnt need Nukes to inplict mass casulties.
They prolly have nuclear weapons and that puts them in a long line if crazy countries.
i name a few: Israel, Pakistan, India, South Africa, Brazil some former Soviet States etc.
For more then 50 years theres been an armed truth. Only way i see this to change is some situation like USA for example lost its cool after 9/11 and went after the so called Weapons of Mass Distruction in Iraq.
Its all politics , media and lobbies.
There is no excuse to start a war with North Korea whatsoever.
@freefallingbomb
You said: Speaking of nuclear proliferators: Did you ever blame and defend some punishment for the British and the French (the U.S. Americans?) for supplying all sorts of nuke tech to psychopath nation “Israel” since the ’50s, including nuclear-capable attack planes? Or do you believe that the Jews invented it all by themselves by smashing their heads against the Wailing Wall?
Is “Israel” maybe untouchable for you…?
————————————————-
Please tell me wtf Isreal has to do with North Korea. You are completely off topic and you seem like a wack job to me.
you said: So what? The test missile will most probably be fired bearing no warhead at all. Even crashing civilian Russian satellites have more radioactive mat
This would seem to be a golden opportunity for China to step up diplomatically and show they are a player on the world stage that can use diplomacy to affect current events and defuse crises in their sphere of influence.
Well I did say Barrack would have problems executing his war plan. That he will actually have one that works is not to be doubted. He is foremost a thinker and a pragmatist, if push comes to shove, victory is certain.
I just don’t buy that South Korea can be pushed that far, and North Korea can’t be counted on to escalate, they are shrewed showmen only, they know they don’t stand a chance if there is actually a war.
I think what will happen is everyone, especially South Korea will sit on their hands, until the shit hits the fan, but by then it’ll be too late cause someone already got nuked.
Do our missile defences even work?, if they do then we haven’t reached boiling point anyway.
The most preferred option in my mind is an invasion of North Korea…by China. North Korea might have the benefits of their terrain if the ROKs and the US decided to take unilateral action, but they have no such luxury on the northern border. Their major defense networks are all pointed at their main enemies in the south.
If China were to invade them we could watch and wait for an opening to have the ROKs, and the ROKs only to move north and capture Pyongyang. The US can simply provide logistical support to the ROKS if requested and give assurances to the Chinese that we will let the Government of South Korea move to meet them in the country to hand over the rest.
We should not need to be involved in actual kinetic actions if the south got some help from the largest neighbor in the region. If the North decided to invade the ROK, then we should go full out to defeat the regime in the North. But let it be known now, if that happens, it will be the Koreans that will take the highest cost in bloodhsed. Hopefully China will realize that the true problem is the North and possibly decide to take actions.
To the poster “Greg”:
————————————————————————————————————————
You wrote: “If the missile hit hawaii, i fear that we would vaporize NK. Not that I want to nuke anyone,but hey it is what it is. If Kim wants to stand up and play a mans game he can get smacked down.”
Here, very piecemeal for you:
1) Nobody said that North Korea isn’t going to perform that missile test.
2) Nobody said that North Korea isn’t aiming at Pearl Harbour.
3) Nobody said that North Korea will miss Pearl Harbour, even with its very first missile.
4) Nobody said that the U.S.A. aren’t going to nuke North Korea entirely in return, whether that first missile had any type of warhead screwed on or not.
The (your) problem starts afterwards: Once again, what are you going to do about that last little North Korean nuke that survived the nuclear attack safe and sound? You can impossibly avoid it, no matter who carries it into the U.S.A. and how and when and where (or even the posting of all its detailed construction plans all over the Internet, for that matter). Nuke North Korea and the first military bomb ever to hit the continental U.S.A. will be a nuclear one.
That’s why I also started to reason (with my previous post) precisely where you stopped to think with your answer to me (congratulations).
————————————————————————————————————————
You wrote: “…all of your comments are so biased”
The U.S.A. is no longer a good, peaceful nation, but the new Nazi Empire. If the U.S.A. get nuked, half (?) of the World will feel ecstatic instead of pitying you.
And since even the fanatical North Koreans “may have made” some superficial plans for a nuclear war / retaliation against the U.S.A., just give it a few more days and keep underestimating every enemy’s I.Q. !
Remember, the Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved by back-channel negotiations about a quid pro quo between removing USSR’s missiles on Cuba and our own missiles in Turkey.–
well.. so why are you still trying to understading him? it is also useless like everything what you have counted here..
Backdoor policy will never work with N-Korea.(aside that the whole talking with N-K in 90′ens was “back-channel”) North Korea is not the Soviet Union either will this only support chinese power inside of Korea and Asian Far East.
–I have to agree with the author, this is about nothing more than establishing a permanent monarchy.–
permanen monarchy? you mean to instaly a dynasty?
@freefallingbomb
Once again you aren’t writing clearly. I am having trouble trying to understand what you are saying. Are you saying that we are going to Nuke NK? Why in the world would we do that? Are you saying if we attack North Korea, they have or will sneak a nuclear bomb into the country. So Its perfectly fine and moral for NK to threaten their neighbors, we are the bad guys for trying to stop the threat? I really don’t follow your logic. You mentioned that we are the new Nazis. Is that the case, or does some of the world want us to look like that while they do their evil deeds.
Well though i do think free falling bomb and fart are pretty crazy they have a point israel and north korea are connected.
North korea and syria have been found to have colaberated on there nuke projects with iran. So in a way yes they are connected.
Also that whole israel has had nukes for years but hasent threatened to wipe jordan, syria, iran egypt etc. off the map even though they were kinda invaded a few times.
Basicaly we have proff we can trust the israelies with nukes. Judging from the actions of rogue states like north korea syria iran what makes you think you can trust them?
whatever you say japanese are ready to oppose the korean rockets!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nl-Si9M9sYY
Also that whole israel has had nukes for years but hasent threatened to wipe jordan, syria, iran egypt etc.———–
WHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.. someone needs here to take the history lessons. i bet it is you.
FlyingFart: Back-channel diplomacy means things that are done entirely in secret, allowing both parties to save face and negotiate frankly in ways not possible otherwise. The attempts by the Clinton Administration to reign in DPRK nuclear development were not back channel, they were regular meetings with press awareness and with many aides on both sides present. An example of back channel diplomacy is Henry Kissinger’s secret first trip to China. Also, for clarity I am interested in understanding Kim II better in order to consider how best to resolve the conflict that DPRK keeps provoking and stoking. Sanctions don’t work well at all. Military chest-thumping can just paint everyone into a corner.
Why wouldn’t China offer to buy out any nukes that Kim II might move close to selling, perhaps at a price of two or ten times the going rate for the ilk of al Qaeda?
Because the extortion would never cease! And then, Beijing would have fewer T-bills and Pyongyang would have even more leverage over Washington.
Firstly, noone cares about North Koreans. The whole purpose of the discussion is that North Korea will soon have a nuclear arsenal and we can’t let that happen. Some people think they can be bargained with through backchannels others think we should invade. Both are unrealistic, we have absolutely no leverage or spies or sabotage capability in North Korea, so the bargaining option will only buy time and maybe not even that. Invasion is too costly in the one thing we can’t build more of, and thats soldiers lives.
The best we can do is probably seize the capital and install a phony government by bribing some north koreans, this will lure out the vanguard, who will then be bargained with opening up their regime to spies, in this way they can be controlled to some degree. But even this will be a significant military procedure and do we even have the intelligence required to pull it off. I don’t believe so. Like I said we are screwed, someones gonna get nuked either way.
North Korea is China’s lapdog & bitch. I say that because North Korea,by threatening South Korea,Japan,& the U.S.,IS doing China’s will.
I cannot help but roll my eyes in total disgust with all of these people who describe China as our friend. China is going to march into North Korea & disarm them & drive Kim Jong Il from power? You tell me who is being delusional & either smoking pot or some other psychotropic drug?
China does not view the U.S. as their most important trading partner,let’s get that STRONG DELUSION out of the way right now.
China does however view our land,our territory as their “Lebensraum(like Nazi Germany viewed Poland,Russia(USSR),& the rest of the nations east of them.
Why do you think that china has been poisoning our food & medicine that they have been selling us. Remember all of the “made in China” products being recalled for safety reasons? remember our pets being poisoned? Remember all the lead paint in our children’s toys? My brother died in 2007 after being put on a heparin drip(he developed a brain hemorrhage). Now we hear about Heparin produced in China being unsafe & the cause of many patient deaths in the U.S.
Where am I going with this? China is doing with us what we did with the American Indians when we took away their land. Just like we gave Indians smallpox infested blankets to kill them off & take their land,China is doing her best to poison us & kill us will faulty products.”But they need our money!!!!!” You dumbass,they don’t want our money,they want us GONE(dead,extinct) so they can take our land,cities,& houses.
Please,somebody say again how China is our best buddy(“where would Wal-Mart be without China?”) & will help us with North Korea so that I can mock,ridicule,& laugh you to scorn.
FlyingFart: Back-channel diplomacy means things that are done entirely in secret, allowing both parties to save face and negotiate frankly in ways not possible otherwise. The attempts by the Clinton Administration to reign in DPRK nuclear development were not back channel, they were regular meetings with press awareness and with many aides on both sides present.—
I know what Back-channel diplomacy does mean. Those regular meetings were the product of the long and hard back-ddor diplomacy.
—-An example of back channel diplomacy is Henry Kissinger’s secret first trip to China.—-
no, that was selling american and forigners lifes for own political career.
—Also, for clarity I am interested in understanding Kim II better in order to consider how best to resolve the conflict that DPRK keeps provoking and stoking. Sanctions don’t work well at all. Military chest-thumping can just paint everyone into a corner.—
Seriously. Kim II is going to install his son into own position, he is going to have nuclear weapons and he is going to make own political victory. officialy and inofficialy Kim II is over and out with a great smile on his face. You are to late to understand him. Neither can you understand him because you have no personal information (not speculations) about him, wich was not controlled by his will. you lost, he is victoruos and going to left the battle-place already.
To the poster “DBK”:
You wrote: “Perhaps the Korean War will resume to be finally resolved. But it will be very bloody. I would expect much help from the Brits or Canadians orGermans, much less the Japanese (despite their evident fear).”
I would evidently be afraid too if I had to attack a neighbouring, irrational nuclear power with CONVENTIONAL means only, especially one who still harbours rancors against me because of my monstruous World War Two atrocities! And the Japanese also know what it feels like to get nuked. But if the U.S.A. still preferred (or needed…) to fight a nuclear North Korea backed by the Japanese Armed Forces, wouldn’t that be a good opportunity now to finally let them buy those F-22′s, dumbed-down or not? Or should the Japanese surprise the North Koreans on horses, so that you U.S. Americans will always feel safe enough that they will never be able to challenge you again militarily? Come on, admit it, that’s the only true reason behind your refusal: You’re most afraid of the reconstruction of the Japanese Military, because you know exactly that what goes around comes around!
The only way to know for sure is to bomb him and see what happens.
If you only have a few nukes, and your targets are Japan, USA and South Korea, which would you choose? The only country in that list that has ever committed the worst atrocities on the Koreans is Japan.
Patriotic, unapologetic Japs everywhere have every reason to be afraid, very afraid >:)
During the Cold War some prominent U.S. American strategists argued publicly that the U.S.A. shouldn’t imperil their existence over the defense of their European allies (despite big-mouthed pledges of “nuclear umbrellas” and “mutual assistance”, etc. etc.), suggesting instead that the U.S.A. should “first try to sort matters out” with the Soviet Union on a “lower, local, tactical level” before going full broadside, meaning: Turning Europe and Russia into a fluorescent wasteland while at the same time preserving the American continent wonderfully intact. But now an increasing number of posters here in this discussion forum enthusiastically supports the idea of nuking North Korea (and getting nuked in return) “pre-emptively” or for as little as a stray missile falling into a Hawaiian volcano. Not being able to find one or two U.S. American cities one hour later (their own cities?) and / or the prospect of North Korea globalizing nuclear terrorism for decades, until their last unspent nukes run out of shelf life, doesn’t disconcert them considerably (a severe form of “what shall not happen, cannot happen”?).
Either the U.S.A. build big nukes only to aim them at small, weak enemies (cowards, pyromaniacs) or the value of Human lives in the U.S.A. has sunk appreciably (nihilists, suicidals) .
I’m no political or military expert, but shouldn’t the US should persuade Japan to alter its constitution and allow an offense-capable military? The US needs a capable, powerful military ally in the region to counteract an irrational Nork gov’t, especially with overstretched military resources. I don’t think a military draft would sound all that appealing to the American public, no matter how euphamistically the media tries to present it.
Pres. Obama increase defense spending to anticipate a military blowup in the Korean Penninsula and allow for the sustainment of 3 MCOs overseas. Sure, it isn’t cheap or appealing in the midst of a recession, but it could prevent an unnecessarily elongated and bloody war.