On Saturday, 5 December, my wife and I attended the christening at General Dynamics Electric Boat, in Groton, CT, of the U.S. Navy’s seventh and newest Virginia-class fast attack submarine, PCU (and soon to be USS) Missouri, SSN 780. Listening to the speeches, and watching from the partial comfort of an open tent as her crew stood tall in the drenching, freezing rain on her hull, I was moved to reflect that the chill in the air could also be metaphorical. Last month, DOD stated that in order to balance the fiscal year 2011 budget, the annual construction rate of Virginia-class boats – only just raised at last by Congress to two per year – might be slashed to one per year for some while longer.
This makes absolutely no sense at all.
For much of this decade, the U.S. Submarine Force has faced a steady rise in demand for service coupled with a steady decline in total in-commission numbers. In 2008, the nation’s overworked fast-attack subs were able to take on barely half of the multifaceted missions requested of them. America is getting locked in to having fewer than the 48 fast-attack subs we’ll need during a critical 12-year stretch straddling 2030 – a near-future era when the whole world will surely be facing critical stressors to peace. These include persistent terrorism and failing-state lawlessness on land and at sea, unresolved dangers of nuclear and other WMD proliferation, escalating drug wars, and rising nationalism among armed sub-national ethnic groups and political factions. Military conflict will also arise from the economic catharses, population disruptions, and regime volatilities caused by globalized natural resource shortfalls and rivalries, unpredictable climate changes, resulting floods and droughts and famines, desperate mass human migrations, continued emerging pandemics, plus other interconnected disasters we can’t even name yet.
China is building both diesel and nuclear subs at an aggressive rate, and shows no signs of stopping. Russia, although her navy and arms industry are currently in disarray, is doing what she can to field a modest sized but up-to-date submarine fleet. She cannot be counted out as a worthy peer competitor 20 years from now. Other nations, such as India and Brazil, are working actively to acquire nuclear subs for the first time, while still others, such as Iran, are seeking to strengthen their forces of modern diesels. Increasingly, diesel submarines come equipped with long-submerged-endurance air independent propulsion systems. The immediate post-Cold War peace dividend is definitely a thing of the past. What we have been dragged into now is a relentless, destabilizing arms race which will neither be stopped nor won based on altruistic rhetoric and de facto unilateral disarmament alone.
At a time when so many weapons procurement programs have faced serious delays and cost overruns, the Virginia-class building program continues to surpass contract performance hurdle after hurdle and delivers outstanding operational results underway. While he was Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Mike Mullen set the Sub Force and submarine industrial base the joint challenge to get the cost of one Virginia down from $2.5 billion to $2 billion in constant 2005 dollars. Only when that happened, he said, could the construction rate of these very fine capital warships be raised to two per year. Since then, I was privileged to visit the GDEB facilities at Groton, CT, and Quonset Point, RI, as well as Northrop Grumman’s Newport News Shipbuilding yard in Virginia. Everybody, from rank-and-file submarine fabricators to top executives, worked with Navy people, from plank owner sub crews to flag officers, to find numerous ways to speed processes and cut costs.
Admiral Mullen’s price benchmark has been met. The Missouri is on target for a record low unit cost, $92 million under budget, with a record fast delivery time, only 5 years and 2 months. This is 9 months sooner than originally expected, and an amazing 38 months faster than first-in-class USS Virginia herself.
Now, DOD and Congress need to keep their end of the bargain made with, and met by, the contractor employees and Sub Force personnel alike. They must continue funding the Virginia class build rate at two per year. The Lexington Institute, a pro-defense think tank in Arlington, VA, stated recently that reducing the acquisition rate to one annually would be “a catastrophic mistake.” I think doing so would also be a gross personal insult to all the Submarine Sailors and submarine shipbuilders – and their families – who braved that wind-driven downpour in the low 40s on Saturday to hear SECNAV Mabus, Senator McCaskill (D-MO), Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT), Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO), and the other distinguished speakers who praised their superb efforts on behalf of America’s national security.
– Joe Buff
{ 44 comments… read them below or add one }
Great article! Right on! The Virginia program is one of the few MDAPs on budget and one of the most vital ones.
The program has been a success and it's a great platform. The problem comes down to price, they are extrordinarily expensive and not well suited to todays fight.
To deal with China and other emerging naval powers I'd say it's time to look to the next generation of attack subs or other platform (UUV?). Lets leap ahead a generation and field a new, revolutionary platform that can rule the seas.
Or perhaps lets ask the question, is there another way to assure command of the seas without subs? Who knows…..
Zandor thanks much for your combat service to America killing enemies to defend our Freedom when I was a wee lad of 15! During the Viet Nam War era U.S. Navy nuclear subs really were totally busy taking some dangerous risks during the undersea Cold War against the USSR which did eventually help bring down the "Evil Empire" of the USSR & Iron Curtain. They did some incredible espionage things and also our subs tracked Soviet subs to hold the Sov nuclear threat itself under threat. Some good books about this stuff are Sontag's and Drew's BLIND MAN'S BLUFF and Craven's THE SILENT WAR. And there are also many megatons of capabilities and achievements by the Silent Service during that period that are still totally top secret.
Chrisram, the Virginia class really is extremely well suited to today's conflicts, which among other things requires heavy amounts of stealthy and long-endurance access into denied littoral (sea coast) areas all over the world.. The intelligence and surveillance "product" being delivered constantly by our overworked Submariners is vital — and it also is totally top secret. The Special Ops being achieved by Submariners and SEALs aboard the 4 modified Ohio-class SSGNs is fantastically awesome and no other platforms can come close to even a fraction of what the SSGNs and their off-board vehicles can do.
The next generation SSNs won't be commissioned until some time in the 2020s. Right now major R&D and design/build capabilities are devoted on the SSN side of things to Flight II of the Virginia class. (Also to perfecting better and better UUVs and also sub-launched UAVs.) The Flight II Virginias will have significant improvements beyond the first 10 or so Virginias. This includes replacement of the vertical launching system with two of the 8-foot wide multi-mission lockout and launch tubes of the Ohio-class SSGNs, and an Improved Sail with better sensors and big hangar space for off-board minivehicles. Also the Submarine Industrial Base is beginning work on the next generation strategic deterrent SSBN design, as the Ohio's are getting old but the need for the strategic deterrent continues. The Obama Administration recently affirmed that these "boomers" as they used to be called are essential to national security in the 21st century.
Dear Joe Buff';
Question:
How many people, other than innocent fishermen, has the US Navy Submarine fleet killed in the last 50 years?
Answer:
ZERO.
End of subject.
Zandor a different but good way to look at it is how many people (including Americas) has the Sub Force PREVENTED from being killed, or doomed to live under horrible tyranny. This of course and alas is impossible to measure or know. But it is probably a big positive number. :-o
Joe Bluff, you forget that Zandor believes the world would be better off without the United States. This leaves Zandors post as useless. From a U.S. standpoint, the Sub has been a world shapeing, policy making, MAD assuring tool that is invaluable and necessary for my country. From a Zandor standpoint, it was something that surfaced and killed a few fisherman, and a great oppurtinity to point out something so unavailing.
Yall, Why do you respond to Zandor….its silly he's a troll.
If Zandor was in the military im kim jong ill.
Zandor is probably in his late teens to mid 30's. Is probably at his mom's house in the basment listening to Emo music and cutting himself while he tells his emo friends about how he fights the man. Dont respnd to him…Ignore him.
——————————————————————————————————
The virginias are excellent boats. There made for todays enviroment. Most diesal subs are operating near to the coast where a virginia will accell. They are fast silent and efficent killing machines.
The navy in its infinate wisdom has decided at a time when every other nation is going sub crazy (specialy the asian nations) to get ride of practicaly all our anti sub platforms.
In there place we get what…900 million dollar tin can that can hunt subs….if it has the right pods fitted. Which are in its home port….Mean while there arent enough of them to make a difference anyways.
Subs are like special forces. There doing there job best when you never hear about them.
As new technology becomes more available we can incorperate that into a new sub class. But at the moment the virginia is probably the best sub in the world.
Its not the aircraft carriers, the destroyers, the subs, tanks, fighters bombers, countless infantry, marines, or any others of that that wins wars but all of them together.
After all what does it matter if you have the largest most technologicaly advanced army in the world if it gets shot down or sunk before it gets to fi
Expand SSN class?
Reuse LA class via SLEP.
Hire ex Vets for Sub Service?
IE over 40?
Automate subs to Reduce crew size?
More can be done.
Expand SSGNs?
The Mighty Mo rides (sails) again!!!
Let us all hope that she does as well as her namesake BB-63 and that the expedited delivery schedule does not impact on her performance and readiness.
Now, if the U.S. Navy (hypothetically) expanded or maintained an SSN fleet size of approximately 55-60, would there be enough sailors to man all of them? 45 does seem like the minimum cutoff fleet size to me.
Personally, I wish Seawolf class had been continued, and modified, instead of the Virginia.
Have to say as far as the missouri name goes i to hope she has all the luck and service records here last name sake did.
Thought i wonder if it would have been better to name a replacment for the ssbn with it. At least keep the name in the heavy hitter league.
Of course who knows maybe in 5 to 10 years well get a replacment for the Battleship like a supped up arsenal ship.
And yes i liked the sea wolf to but they where to expensive in areas we couldnt support. Plus they would be at a disadvantage in shallow waters where the diesal subs operate.
Val Can gets my vote;
He can't even spell Kim Jong Il, half assed correctly.
Poor Val Can probably doesn't know where he comes from.
I am referring of course to Kim Dong Il the communist shit eating lunatic ding bat, and not his retarded clone cousin Val Can.
During the year of 1971 I killed infinitely more more NVA communists than did the entire fleet of US Navy Submarines.
I was one efficient little son of a bitch, wasn't I?
Meanwhile the US Navy Submarine fleet was busy starching its uniforms and doing what it normally does when it isn't changing its uniforms into other uniforms.
They were busy taking pictures of their heroic comrades dressed up in spiffy uniforms.
Hmm, holding the reigns of the entire cold war chrises seems to ring a bell. I'm sure you know nothing of that. I sub was worth its weight in cold in World policy durring that time.
Yes Zandor, we all know of you facination of camo and pictures of American soldiers.
and about the Navy is getting rideof practicaly all our anti sub platforms.
/blog.usni.org/2009/12/07/shipbuilding-is-asw-eating-missile-defenses-lunch/
Yes they are equivalent in some ways. However they are smaller and more manuverable. Plus i think just a little more quiet.
Everything ive read or heard says they are better for the littorals. Where as the seawolf is better at open ocean.
BTW that link doesnt work for me is that all of it?
you can't read it?It is about ASW.
No it just shows up blank when i try to access it
Good Evening Joe,
I’m some what disappointed that you had to use the now standard neo-conservative rational of China and Russia are becoming competitive with the US in submarines.
The Russians are in the process of building maybe six SSBN’s of the Bony Class, there four or five Typhoons that have been in storage for now going on twenty years are most like unable to be returned to service and should be scrapped, and a hand full maybe a dozen Akula II attack boats will most likely be build along with the three for lease to India. The Russians are clearly not going to challenge the US under the seas as they once did as the Soviet Union.
The Chinese Type 093 attack submarine and the Type 094 Ballistic Missile are still very much in the experimental stages of development. The single Type 094 is sitting in a sea cave at Hainan Island waiting for a missile to be developed, an interesting point is that its first trip south for “storage” the submarine made the voyage on the surface, why?
The single Type 093 longest deployment so far has been seven days. From Japanese sources the rumors of how quiet is is seem to be highly exaggerated. The Japanese have had no trouble tracking/following the Type 093 in the Yellow sea.
The Virginia Class seem to be a good serviceable boat that can be configured to several missions but the next generation of US SSN’s are in the design stage and most like the Virginias will be stopped at about thirty boats. The SSGN’s appear to be gaining fans in the silent service and are serving as a test bed for the future class of SSN’s.
I would suggest the major cosmetic change in the next generation of SSN’s will be moving from the bow and adding tubes, up to 96 quick change out missile canisters like the Army’s M-270 MLRS, to the vertical launch tubes to the rear of the sail, this will give a single SSN the capacity to launch a ballistic missile strike of short to long range accurate weapons, a wet well that will launch and retrieve UUV’s that will be wirelessly controlled by the mother sub while submerged, doing long range scouting, cruising littoral waters to kill diesel subs, plant mines, gather signal intel or things we haven’t yet though about. Perhaps using some control system based on the UK’s and Lockheed Martin’s CSD system.
The Russians and especially the Chinese are generations of boats behind what the US is doing now, let alone what will be routine in the near future for US subs.
Come on Joe, you know better then to spread the China myths of the nero-antebellum conservative think tanks.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
Zandor, though I never served in the "boats" I am smart enough to know and understand that the majority of what our fleet of subs do and have done go un heralded. This means that not many people know what they have done. Through the few submariners that I know, I have heard some of the stories. Rest assured that these brave men do a hell of alot more than take pictures of each oither dressed up in spiffy uniforms! Think of Thresher and of Scorpion………stand down soilder.
Of course their core mission involves shadowing other nations boomers,
But second to that is probably stealthily following just about anything any nation puts in the water, in order to gain sigint and intel. Anytime anyone comes up with a new Stealth frigate or hot new weapon, I bet bet dollars to donuts the subs are stuck chasing the thing, collectings its IR, sigint, and acoustic sigs. probably even scoping the crew to see if they know what thier doing when their handling the lines and running the drills.
Most of the fast attacks' jobs nowadays are to serve as an invisible radio antennae, and occasionally as the worlds snoopiest cable repair man.
After that comes hanging around other countries live fire training, just to see how many duds the Russians can launch in under ten minutes.
And last but not least, riding shotgun forward of the CVGs' to ensure nobodies parking thier sub in front of the taskforce.
Submarines in general, and the nuclear boats in particular, are one place where you definitely don't want to skimp on expenses. Ask the crew of the Kursk, or at least thier next of kin.
And one final note, I really really really wish the navy would go back to having naming conventions. I think the boomers should have state names, and the fast attacks should either be fish or important cities.
How many ships have nuclear submarines sunk?
The Answer…two. The General Balgrano, and a jap tuna boat.
Not a bad investment for a few trillion dollars.
Fight the war you ave, not the war you wish you had.
Belgrano, my mistake.
Nuclear submarines go to the bottom more often than do their foes.
If the USA had 15 to 20 thousand more nuclear attack submarines than it does right now, the US citizens would all be able to feel safer at night?
The Taliban's, ( those nasty rascals ) navy is growing larger each and every day, and therefore the US Navy needs to respond in like kind.to does it not?
Just ask your nearest Admiral, and it will agree.
The best solution would be to have 50 new Battleships, so as no state is left off the list, a few hundred extra aircraft carriers, and everything else that it takes.
The sad fact is that USA is being flushed down the toilet of history, but yet it is still prancing around like a freshly finger diddled high school girl.
When the USA's end comes it won't be a nice experience, however it will be something to look at.
The world's largest train wreak.
Valcan,are not the new Virginia equivalent to at Sea Wolf?
The Virginia-class was a ‘budget’ alternative to the Seawolf when the latter was cancelled.
How much of the capability has crept back in anyway is something you’d have to compare…
Sigh people never learn…dont talk to trolls.
" .would suggest the major cosmetic change in the next generation of SSN's will be moving from the bow and adding tubes, up to 96 quick change out missile canisters like the Army's M-270 MLRS, to the vertical launch tubes to the rear of the sail, this will give a single SSN the capacity to launch a ballistic missile strike of short to long range accurate weapons, a wet well that will launch and retrieve UUV's that will be wirelessly controlled by the mother sub while submerged, doing long range scouting, cruising littoral waters to kill diesel subs, plant mines, gather signal intel or things we haven't yet though about. Perhaps using some control system based on the UK's and Lockheed Martin's CSD system."
Dang good idea. Now will they do it?
Joe makes an excellent case for canceling the remaining build.
An easy $2b savings for something that has no use in the modern world.
For those readers who think that modern SSNs are not useful in current national defense, I suggest you do some reading on facts and reasons to the contrary that you can find free of charge on-line in at least 3 places: "Undersea Warfare Magazine" (put out by the USN) has a great website w. color pics re things the subs are doing now and new things they are being developed/enhanced to do. Also over the past decade yours truly has written a number of items which can be seen in the Joe Buff Archive of Military.com and in the archive of DefenseTech here. Also other articles as well are in the Non-Fiction Archive of joebuff.com, such as things from The Submarine Review, the New London Day, and 1 piece from the USNI Proceedings.
Our submarine fleet is a key aspect to our nuclear deterrence, and the defense of the United States. If they keep a war from breaking out, they have done their job.
The brainwashed liberals will bitch and whine anytime we produce such marvels of technology, but it is key to continue development of our submarine fleet. Since the end of the Cold War, submarines have become the greatest threat posed to our carrier battle groups and naval forces.
Good Morning Folks,
The SSN is very useful for nation defense and the fact that in the future fewer will be build reflects this. There is a lack of bad guys out there.
China although they can build nuclear submarines have build a about ten in the last thirty years two missile subs, China has had only one successful underwater launch of a Jl-1 missile in 1988. Since then their boomers have been tieed up to the pier. Chinas second generation of missile submarine the Type-094 (Russian Delta III) doesn’t have a missile until the Jl-2 is developed, which could be a decade or MORE away, the only Type 094 sub sits in a sea cave on Hainan Island in the South China Sea. Attack boats the current class is the Han Class of which two has been built, but only one ever put to sea, are nothing more then a coursity. Both boats are bases in the North Sea Fleet.
China has about 80+ conventional powered boats, 4 Soviet Kilos with two more on order and about 62 relic Soviet Romeos and there home grown Song Class of which China is turning out 2-4 hauls a year. The Kilos are considered the most capable of all of China submarines. The USN consider none of China’s conventional boats to be a threat to US interests.
The Russian have for all practical purposes at this time any combat submarines in the water. They have eight Delta IV’s four each in the Northern fleet and the Pacific Fleet but the haven’t been to sea in over a decade and it is doubtful they are even crewed. Attack boats, the Russian have a few Kilos and Akula’s, less then a dozen total that could maybe put to sea.
The Russian future Plans are to build four to as many as eight Bony Class missile subs, the first was due last year but is still in the yard. Like China they are currently with out a SLBM, they are developing the SS-N-20 which is a SS-27 Topol-M (Stalin) designed for ballistic missile submarines. Both missiles have had major testing problems, the Russian are still trying to field it’s first two Regiments, out of seven planned, of the SS-27′s. The SS-N-20′s are still years away from being operational.
Neither China or Russia have plans for a blue water submarine force. The protection of costal waters and economic zones are the limits of either countries future plans for submarines. neither county has plans, ne can’t afford to have a 24/7/365 submarine force at sea.
With in the USN the ASW mission has slipped down and out of most likely the top twenty five submarine tasks. The era of the troublesome torpedo is coming to and end, the USN would prefer to engage other submarines at more comfortable distances of say 500Km.
Non nuclear submarines are nothing more then a novelty. The Swedish API boats have gained a lot of media attention the past few years but sale have been few as have the German U-212 and now the U-214 hydrogen fuel cell powered submarines. Two critical flaws speed and the having to come to snorkel every few days to a couple of weeks. When that happens the submarine becomes a target for any number of US and allies ASW platforms.
The US Nuclear Submarine is alive and well, but alas though, there will be fewer of them in the future. The yapping of the neo-antebellum conservative think tanks for more submarines and a larger sub fleet are completely unsupported by the situations in China and Russia or any other country for that matter.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
Byron,
What is a "neo-antebellum conservative" just wondering is it like a neocon?
(which should be banned from politics and conversations involving politics, along with change, hope, yes we can. Why because im tired of hearing them thats why)
And as for the ASW heres one of the things that gets me. Remember when we had that chinese sub surface among one of our carrier battlegroups?
Yea im sure none of those subs is a threat.
Zandor, the Nuclear Submarine force has done a helluva lot more then what you give them credit for.
Also, agree with the folks in the Lexington Institute it would be a disaster if more Virginia-class boats were not put into service. They'll play a vital role in Special Operations, recon, and other missions. As well as establishing itself in this arms race Joe Buff is going on about, whether if it goes to a cold war, or a hot one (godwilling it won't) these subs are the next generation, and will (hopefully) be manned by the next generation. Let's all hope the USS Missouri lives up to it's predessors.
Strummer
The readers who are knocking the 774's aren't familiar with the current state of the submarine force. It's mediocre. Really, friends, the LA boats are VERY.. OLD. Have you toured one? Enjoy the wood paneling, naugahyde-upholstered chairs and vector-graphics CRTs displaying warbled data from water-cooled minicomputers programmed in ADA. The same goes for the Tridents. Before you stop me and explain that there have been a few useful mods pushing HP-UX boxes on (cough) VME hardware with "ruggedized" [cough $22,500] LCD BNC-input 17" monitors… well, let me tell you that I already know. By the way, the Seawolf and the Connecticut are….. wait for it…. abortions.
There. Are. No. Remotely-modern. Submarines. Except. For. The. Virginias. This *is* the submarine force. The one you actually think we have. Don't knock it.
Keep it up, shipmate Buff.
If the LA's are old does that imply the boomer force is on the way out as well? Do we have a SSBN in the works?
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/systems/ssbn-x….
According to this, there will be a new SSBN in the water by 2029.
Good Evening Folks,
The “neo-antebellum conservatives” are basically the prevailing winger who’s political conscious stopped with the election of 1860. They celebrate the lost cause and wear designer sheets, ie. they put up posts that are at best inaccurate and more often just lies, but won’t use their real names, quite cowardly actually, and quite often are paid by think thanks whos values they share.
Regarding the statement on the 774 boats, the Los Angeles Class I could not have said it better. They are worn out, have given their service and are due for retirement. I especially like you description of their interiors. The interiors are a 50′s cocktail lounge, worn red naugahyde booths, speckled or red and white checkered faux Italian Formica counter tops, but without the piano bar.
The U.S.S. Kitty Hawk inicident, we all remember that one, especially how the Admirals in charge were punished. Admiral Mullens was punished by becoming the CNO and the Intelligence Chief of the Pacific area, Admiral McConnell is now head of of the NRO. War is he** and punishment is swift for those who screw up.
In defense of the Navy though the Hawk was on a pre deployment training exercise in the Yellow Sea. There was no SSN with the group, there was an FFG that was patroling around the Hawk to keep fishing boats and what ever else away and out of sight was a DD51 with it Ages turned on doing ATC to keep civilian and other nations aircraft out of the air space the Hawk was using for it traps and recoveries. No one had their passive or active sonar in use looking for subs, after all this was a training exercise.
One note here on the Song boat that surfaced and took some pot card shots of the Hawk for the crew in Beijing, had been followed by the Japanese Self Defense Force for quite sometime, and reported to the USN. Since Chinese submarines have the rights of transit in the Yellow Sea the same as anybody else, this wasn’t considered any unusual activity.
Since it hasn’t happened again let hope that some folks in the USN wised up and are now turing on the ASW for the GW when it does it’s training exercised in the Yellow Sea.
The Seawolf boats, are as you indicated are a three boat class. I think one thing that most people don’t understand about U.S. naval vessels, seldom will you find two alike. As ships/submarines are build new technology is incorporated into the design and construction. The current Virginia boat that comes off the line will be a state of the art boat that supersedes the one before it as the best in the fleet technologically wise.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
Byron, please keep in mind the amazing rate of growth of the China's GDP and defense budget (if not its share of the GDP). US military accepts as a fact that in the past decade China has been able to transform its military beyond recognition. What makes you think they are going to stop? They are looking to become number one, in terms of gross GDP, within 10-15 years, and, as an authoritarian regime, are able to spend a bigger share of what they have on defense than a democracy. All the polyannish talk of us becoming intertwined economically, and friends, is short-sighted. It is only prudent to assume the worst of them, and not to extrapolate their past/current performance too far out.
It would also be nice if you kept your anti-conservative agenda a little more in check. In matters of security, their outlook has been more clear-sighted, through the Cold War years, and beyond.
Best,
Observer
Thanks, Byron. It's pretty true, on paper and in real life, that the boats can vary from one hull to the next.
Regarding the Seawolfs, the 21 and 22 (I've been aboard both) are, if you will, "super LA" boats that have 8 torpedo tubes, better sonar, a bigger reactor and integrated AFFF firefighting for Class-B fires. There's nothing impressively-modern about them, in appearance or technology. They are the scratchpad of the designers of the Virginias; production was halted, appropriately. When you're aboard one, it reminds you of an LA.
The Trident SSBNs are about as modern as a 688. I'm talking mechanical-relay-based-logic-computer-modern. Some systems have been updated, and these upgrades have extended their useful lives, given their mission.
Friends, the Virginia class is an absolute necessity if you care about the United States submarine force existing. I'm okay with it if you think we don't need a big fleet. The fleet we have is older than you can even understand. It is older than anything that exists in your life, today.
Good Morning Joe,
First to respond to Best Observer:
You pose some interesting questions. I will address China’s economy. While China has experienced what in economic terms only as phenomenal it is showing signs of coming to a crushing halt.
To backtrack her a second, the GDP of China in dollars is reported to be between $6-$8 trillion at a 6% annual growth, or third largest economy in the world in the world behind Japan with about a $10 trillion GDP. The US mean while reports a $14 trillion GDP which as last Fall unmasked is a low ball number and a real US GDP is more likely is $22.4 trillion. Using the “old” accounts rule of 72 for the Chinese economy and using the high number it would be about before China’s economy would double to $16 trillion. Theoretically possible, yes, in reality not a chance.
China has two huge problems. The first is the coming change in leadership at the CCP and bridging the gap of the lost generation of the “Great Leap Forward” and Mao’s “Cultural Revolution”. Chairman Hu has tapped the next leadership to be men (so far no women) in their 40′s as his successors. There are many unhappy Party members in their 60′s who feel slighted to say the least.
Second is that China has been taking the returns (profits) from their growth and investing them in foreign bonds in the United States and the EU and not reinvesting in the home front. The image of a peasant stooping in the fields an living on the edge of starvation looks up at the road in from of him/her and sees a “Nouveau Riche” country woman speeding past in a ned Mercedes Benz… Their are about a half trillion of these agrarian peasants, many who had family who served with Mao and are staunch loyalists to his cult, many still have the arms that Mao sent them home with to rise up against Counter Revolutionaries … I’ll let the reader fill in the rest of the story.
But this is about submarines so let get back to the story. As you suggest the SSN 21 are not evolutionary but a branch that goes to a dead end. The Chinese although they can make a nuclear boat are still in most western experts opinion in the pre-thresher stages of development. The Han Class, China’s most recent attack boat, there are two in the water but only one deploys, is several generations behind US Los Angeles Class. The rate of manufacture is about a three cycle and plans call for a max of eight boats more likely it will be six or less.
An upate on Wednesday the Russian had another test firing of the SS-NX-30 “Bulava” SLBM, from the White Sea from the Typhoon (test bed sub only) Class Dimitry Donskol, like 6 out of 11 times it failed which now has 7 out of 12 failures. As we sit right now the Chines has tow boomers one in a sea cave and on that last out to sea in 1988. The old evil empire has in the eight Delta IV’s, four in the North Sea Fleet and Four with the Pacific Fleet. These Delta’s last went to sea a decade or more ago.
Both countries are in developments of SLBM’s China the Jl-2, and Russia the SS-NX-30 “Bulava”. Neither country has either an operational ballistic missile submarine in the water or a SLBM to launch for a submarine. The odds that either Russia or China will have a deployable and armed boomer at sea in the next decade are not real high.
I would think that the mission of trailing either Russian or Chines boomers is rather low on the list of things for the Virginias to do.
The age of the US fleet is of concern but the Virginias as good as the are quickly becoming dated themselves. Fortunately the next generation of both SSN (that may change to SSGN’s) and SSBM’s is on the drawing boards. It is unlikely from what I can determine that the Virginias will ever get to 30 boats before being replaced. The leaps in technology are moving that fast.
An indicator of the Navy’s intent are forward rapid weapons replenishment facilities for submarines that are now out for construction bids for the submarine bases on Guam and at Diego Garcia.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
Good Morning Joe and Christian,
It appears that DT has a fan at Heritage Foundation, Baker Spring, gender not known. He is quoting from my post above. of course with out credit either to DT, Joe Buff or myself. As I sometimes do I, included an incorrect piece of information in my post, Baker Spring doesn’t do fact check. I see.
As usual they make a winger spin out of it, which has nothing to do with the intent of what I wrote.
As I’ve always suspected these neo-antebellum “conservative” think tanks have no intellectual foundations and only rip and read what others are saying. The are the people that have been determining US defense policy since the Reagan era. It’s time to get rid of these public parasites.
Just for the right wing nuts out there who try and defend this intellectual trash. Did you know that this very same Heritage Foundation who is taking money to doubt global warming, a couple of months ago got a $175,000.00 contract from Exxon Corp. to get Exxon contracts for “Green Projects” from President Obama’s economic stimulus package. It appears that the only philosophical position that the Heritage Foundation is take the money not any well grounded Conservatism.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
Byron makes a good point when he addresses the plausibility of the Virginias being replaced before the final hull is delivered. Most of us are aware that the military lags-behind the rest of America when it comes to technology, and right now the Virginias are the best we have. If something better comes our way, I say go for it.