Iran Missile a Big Deal

sajjil2

Our boy John Noonan has a good post over at the Weekly Standard that dissects the threat from the reported Iranian missile test yesterday.

First, the Sajjil-2 is a solid fuel rocket. That’s the type of power source that we use in our own Minuteman III rockets, as solid fuel is stable in flight and requires no preparation time ahead of a launch. Liquid fuel, which powers the Iranian Shahab-3 fleet, is highly corrosive and sloshes around in a rocket’s downstage, destabilizing flight and degrading accuracy. It’s so toxic that the fuel eats away at a missile’s internal tanks, and thus needs to be inserted right before launch. That prep time is important, as it gives us a little extra warning prior to a hostile missile launch, which could be used to kill Iranian birds before they fly. With this new Sajjil-2 system, Iran has the ability to keep their missiles hot and ready for execution, killing any chance of an advanced warning or neutralization actions prior to a launch.

Second concern is that this missile is staged. Our Minuteman III ICBMs are a three stage, solid fuel system that have impressive range and accuracy (particularly impressive considering the fact that the fleet is approaching its 40th anniversary). Iran now has a two stage, solid fuel rocket. When they figure out how to add that third stage to the Sajill-2, they’ll have a delivery system with the legs to reach the east coast of the United States.

I tend to just poo poo these tests as grandstanding with souped up bottle rockets, but Noonan knows the threats better than anyone. Design is one thing, and if the Iranians have solid fueled rockets with multiple stages, that’s pretty advanced. But guidence is clearly another technical hurdle entirely and I’m not sure they’re there yet.

But when you’re not targeting specific silos or point detonations and just an air blast over a city, your control systems don’t need to be that refined, do they?

And Noonan goes on to say that the Sajjil 2 design is specific to a weapon system and doesn’t have the characteristics of a space launch vehicle.

Do I see Israeli F-15s being loaded at Ramat David for a Hanukka strike?

— Christian

26 Comments on "Iran Missile a Big Deal"

  1. Cocnur with whaty Moose said….it's not a simple matter to wave the 'extra stage' wand and bingo you can lob ICBMs across the globe.

    Having said that, they Iranians seem to be pressing to acquire an intercontinental capability, and if they keep on track to acquire nuclear capability then it changes the equation in the gulf. The Iranians seem hell bent on going nuclear no matter what the consequences and this will be their undoing. The Israelis and most likely the US will not allow the Iranians to go nuclear so it seems an airstrike (or several) is in the cards.

    You'd think the Iranians would have learned from the Iraqi's experience…..

  2. pooh pooh.

  3. Troubling news, indeed. I'm sure Venezuela's Chavez would love to lob a few of these missiles at the –cough, cough–"imperialistic northern devils."

    Imagine what fifteen of these missiles could accomplish if fired from a barge off the east or west coast of the USA and equipped with high-altitude EMP capability.

    I'm sure Obama stays up at nite pondering the possibilities…

  4. It really worries me when the naysayers always find excuses not to be a little concerned about Iranian intentions and weapons development. Neutron initiators, meh, solid fuel missiles, no biggie.

    When we see a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv what's the response? "It was less powerful than Hiroshima, the Iranians are so primitive"

    Time to park a couple of Trident subs in the Indian Ocean (probably already there) and say to Iran " you so much as twitch and say good-night Gracie"

  5. Israel started this arms race over there. Now other countries are just trying to get what Israel has had for decades.

  6. I hate to say it, but I think they are beginning to bother me. They at first say they have no nukes, then when they were discovered they have urinium, they say they are going to use it for electricity, now they were found with two sites where they keep thier uranium and was keep on saying its for electricity, now they admitted they going to use it for peacefull means and in some cases they say they are going to use it to protect their country? Foe me I think they are one big liers and a dangerous future foe. If they build thousands of nuclear weapon/ measilles, I guess that is something to worry about.

  7. We've watched for most part of this decade as the United Nothings (UN)dramatically failed to resolve this Iranian nuclear program issue.

    Conclusion, the Iranians will not stop their program. The Iranian leadership is fanatical and it's only a matter of time before they attack Israel, nukes included!

    2nd Conclusion, Israel cannot trust anyone on this life or death matter. If the United Nothings keep failing (and they will) then I hope Israel will to do the deed. Let her hammer Iran's nuclear sites, including missiles.

    There will never be peace over there, ever! We might as well accept that fact!

    JMN

  8. Well, I can tell you this much. Solid prop rocket motors have been around longer than you think. Almost all, if not all, of US armament has had solid fuel since the start of the Cold War. We still have some of the old stuff to prove it. It is definitely a big deal though. Liquid fuel is a pain, and whoever said that it doesn’t move around because of the speed of the rocket is incorrect. Take a smaller example, say the AIM9-M. Even the earliest models of these used solid fuel, because it causes an even burn from back to front. Liquid fuel tends to not burn evenly, the properies of which make it impossible when in motion. Therefore, in any kind of turn, the liquid fuel, concentrated in the back, would cause a considerable inertia gain in the tail, throwing the missle offcourse, or at the very least, causing it to overcorrect, and expend more fuel. Solid is obviously an improvement, and improvements to ballistic missles in a country bent on developing nuclear warheads and possibly using them is a bad thing. It’s bad enough that US and other “powers” have them, we don’t need MORE countries trying to get them.

  9. The internet is great, everyone can be a rocket scientist!

    Quick point – Solid fuel is optimal. That’s why we use it and the Russians prefer it. Yes Ivan(and Chinese, for that matter) use some liquid fuel and yes you can use storable liquid fuel in alerted sorties, but switching to SF is a jump up for Iran, period.

    I’d show a similar level of concern if they managed to work out some storable liquid fuel and stand up rocket/missile forces to alert, but then there’s always the sloshing issue to consider.

  10. The latest document revealed is possibly the smoking gun, if it is authentic. Neutron initiators are for weapons.

    The Iranians don't need accuracy. They just need the ability to lob a functional warhead. A metropolitan area is pretty easy to hit and even a crude nuke makes any hit devastating.

    This is a question of political will. I have some deep concerns that we and our 'allies' simply do not possess the political will to act.

    If we do decide on a military option I certainly hope we don't limit ourselves to their nuclear facilities or frankly to just air power. I don't think an all out invasion would be smart, but if we could conduct some kind of airmobile or airborne ops and engage large numbers of Revolutionary Guard and annihilate them, that would be worthwhile.

    We don't want to just remove the strategic threat, we want to impede the asymetric threat as well, and the only way to do that is to topple the government. Obviously the people are disillusioned with the theocratic tyrants running their nation.

  11. Matt, and here I thought we were talking about Iranian missiles, where sloshing certainly is a factor, as well as their inability to alert sorties due to the fuel they use.

    I think you’ve got a very impressive resume (I’m not so bold as to post mine online). I would point out, however, that I don’t write for an audience with experience and degrees in rocketry. So I’m comfortable making sweeping generalizations about liquid fuel, as the implications for Iran’s program are still valid.

  12. I think the point is the Iranians don't need a great missile, just a reliable one to be a huge strategic headache. One that can be launched quickly makes the headache worse.

  13. I agree with the poster who said Israel started this arms race. When Israel was obtaining nuke weapons most of the world just ignored it. The self righteous US not only turned a blind eye to Israel but helped Israel obtain nuke material from America's own enriching facilities. So America and the rest of the world has no right to tell Iran, N Korea or anyone else what they can and cannot have.
    Maybe one day Israel will admit to having one of the largest nuke arsenals in thew world…..

  14. ……sd know thatn feeLing your gonna have a bad hangovers……./ ihaz itzs.

  15. That would require a degree of rationality. And the state of israel was not founded on the idea of reason, rather emotion…negative emotion. Guilt and hatred are hardly firm foundations for national survival.

    As for un-inventing a weapon system, it has been tried before. Crossbows and poison gas.

  16. If it wasn't for our indispensable Allie in the Middle East, the USA would be in grave danger.

    As it now is, the USA is safe from harm.

    Thank you Israel.

    P.S.

    By the way, I am sure that the dead US Navy sailors that were on board the USS Liberty say thanks too.

    Israel uber alles!

  17. Israel's started this arms race, and if you don't believe it, then explain why they still officially deny having nukes? Still. i think all nukes need not exist, Israel needs to come clean and join some type of salt with iran and Pakistan needs to do the same with India!

  18. People have a lack of historical perspective. Israel was founded by UN resolution 181. I'm not sure when a nation is founded within 24 hours it is attacked on all four points of the compass by multiple hostile powers and barely survives that first onslaught there should be much surprise the nation in question seeks the strongest of deterrent weapon system. Sounds like a rather obvious consequence. No, if there is blame to be laid for the situation in the middle east it needs to be laid squarely at the feet of the international community. It made the situation and then has stood idly by for decades while it spiraled to the point it is currently at.

  19. Iran is out of control, they recently invade Iraq and take over an oil well. Constantly thumb their nose at the international community. And keep their people pressed under a heavy thumb of oppression.

    Israel said they would take action against Iran if changes were not made by Christmas. Thank goodness that Christmas is almost here. It is just sad that no other country will take a stand against Iran other than slapping their wrists with meaningless sanctions. Why does the world think that America (and in this case little ol Israel) always needs to take the lead in military action. Where are the other countries in this??? Oh wait, Russia is involved, but they are busy arming this tyrant nation…

  20. It's the whole Ezekiel 38 prophecy in the Bible coming to pass. The Bible states that Israel would be reformed, after God had sent the jews to the ends of the Earth. Not many thought this was possible, but it happened in 1948.

    Next it says after they are a nation again, that they would be attack by a coalition of nations, led by Russia. The nations other than Russia listed, including Iran and Egypt, are ALL Muslim nations. The interesting point is that the Bible specificly mentions a part of Russia that today is the Southern Federal District. This is the Muslim section of Russia.

    God aids Israel against this force and they are wiped out. The Bible says that It will take 7 months for Israel to bury the invading army's dead.

  21. Zander, Israel an ally? Hardly. They take billions from the US every year and give the US back what exactly? Israel spies on the US more than any other country now. All Israel has to do is contact almost any "American" jew and they will betray America without even thinking twice. I'm not saying all American jews put Israel above their native America but alot do. Too most Americans that is unforgivable.
    Iran has just as much right to have nuke weapons as any other country. If I was the leader of Iran or any other country in the ME i would get nukes so Israel didn't threaten my country with their own nukes.

  22. ''Oh,my lord ,my god, help us'' Stand by ISRAEL, DO YOU NOT REALISE WHERE WE ALL CAME FROM, The bigger gun wins the -STOP–the bigger gun-keeps us from war. THATS BOSS, SIR. YOU CAN'T WIN WHAT YOUR AFRAID OF……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    THE LORD IS BOSS…………………………………………………………………………………………
    HE GIVES US NOTHING BUT INSTRUCTION………………..TAKE IT FROM THERE.

  23. I'LL PUT IT THIS WAY —-YOU DON'T OWN WHAT YOU CAN'T DEFEND

  24. i read some comments on this page and it seems amost all think Isreal should just bust Irans azz and i agree but Isreal best know that our musilum islamic president wont help israel at all and that is when this nation needs tgo expel him and all musilums and islamics out of this country period. we are for the most part a God fearing nation even if the atheiest disagree.. when their car starts rolling end to end in a wreck i bet they holler oh God. we should do as Australia did. get rid of any persons or religeons that give rise to a hatred towards America.

  25. look at france. they allowed one musilum cleric assylum and he had the nerve to come against the people who was feeding him and sticking a roof over his head and now 1/3 of france is what??? you guessed it,, musilums or islamics.. same same to me.. this country needs to make a stand for something and stand on that premise. they waver back n forth so much they make me sick, we have politians in congress and as governers etc that cant speak clear english, so where do we stnad? we have a president that to date has not proved he was a natural born American.. and stil we just hoop n holler oh what a great man.. crap whats so great about him… we are deeper in debt now than ever and who to? the red chinese.. somewhere somehow we have got to get reins back on this country and make our stands.. i feel sorry for Israel . as long as Obamass is dictator israel there will never be any support for that nation.. anmd if we were killing the wrong breed of islamics musilums we wouldnt be sending more troops .. we would be running outta that country with ur tails stuck between our legs just as we did in Vietnam.. signed one fed up military connected vet from vietnam.

  26. it's Power of Islamic republic of iran

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