I wanted to highlight some economic data out of China. Why? Because as an influential part of the international security brain trust in Washington focuses anew on China (see AirSea Battle), it’s important to keep in mind that competition at the grand strategic level is not simply a matter of bean counting military hardware and comparing competing war plans. In the 21st century, great power rivalry will be played out on the economic field; we should worry more about the U.S. ability to compete on that field than the battlefield.
So, just to highlight some interesting data points from this Bloomberg story that reports Chinese exports jumping 46 percent in February from a year ago. China, big exporter, right we know that; last year China surpassed Germany as the world’s largest exporter.
The interesting bit of info in this story is that Chinese imports in February also jumped by 45 percent over last year. The conventional wisdom has long been that China will remain an export dependent economy. Chinese domestic demand looks like it might become as/more important than external demand. An example: last year China overtook the U.S. as the biggest auto market.
China is poised to surpass Japan this year as the world’s second largest economy; its GDP grew by 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter. It’s projected to contribute more than a third of global growth in 2010.
In great power rivalry terms, a voracious demand for imports sets one up to potential pain points if the competition shifts to less than peaceful means. There’s lots of worry in some circles about China threatening U.S. sea lines of communication; yet, constantly feeding Chinese domestic demand requires a steady flow of mostly maritime trade. During World War II, the U.S. Navy, and particularly the “Silent Service,” proved masterful at maintaining an economic chokehold on opponents.
– Greg
Photo credit: Atlantic Council
{ 16 comments… read them below or add one }
FFS, stop talking out your ass. :) The US and China (or Taiwan) will NEVER, EVER go to war or even go anywhere near anything that looks like war. It would devastate the world economy and politically & economically burn the US and China to the ground.
My international relations professor (and I) would beg to differ.
There is a distinct possibility that the US and China will fight a war over Taiwan/Japan/Korea (not on any US or Chinese territory). I would say it is a small chance, but it isn't impossible, so it has to be in our plans.
If the China-US trade deficit is reversed, so Chinese domestic demand is satisfied by US exports, we'll be in a great place. I guess it mostly depends on what they are importing (food, oil, machinery, consumer goods, electronics?) and whether we can produce enough of it.
Also, countries like Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, North Korea, Burma and Mongolia all make more attractive targets. Why make war on someone with powerful friends when you can make war on someone who lacks them, or major military capacity. If one is going to be expansionist, one fights wars one thinks one can win easily and integrate into your regime once you prevail.
Taiwan, yes. We should at least take China at its word. Japan and South Korea far less so. And, a Chinese takeover of North Korea would probably be an improvement.
They said the same thing about the periods before WWI and WWII. Germany and Britain were too economically integrated through trade, and a large scale war would be too destructive.
The same was also said about the US and Japan prior to WWII.
History may not always repeat, but it does rhyme
Since China is a rising power and rising powers have a habit of getting themselves into stupid wars (See US VS Spain 1899, and the subsequent Philippines fiasco that came out of it) I do worry that the unelected leaders of China will do something really stupid.
However numbers like this make me happy. The stronger our economic ties are, the less likely they will do something stupid in our direction.
Of course there is no telling what trouble insular leaders can get their country into (See Iraq 2003).
Rule #1: never forget that Commies lie. When the central bank in the US prints money and hands it to the banks, the banks sat on it (with good reason). When the Chinese communist overlord prints money and tells the banks to lend, they lend. China is the biggest economic bubble that the world has ever known.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/goldman-says-something-brewing-in-china.html
Rule #2: never say never. A whole lot of people said that Hitler would never invade Poland…or Russia.
A collapsing world economy will make ol’ fashioned wars-of-conquest much more likely.
I look at it this way. China wants only one thing right now for them to be satisfactorily happy and that is Taiwan. True they have some issues with some island groups as well but the main thorn in their side is the former Republic of China sitting there just off their coast and getting defensive equipment from us. That I see is the only trigger for a war between the US and China. Neither side wants a war with the other. The end result would be the loss of a great economic partnership for sure.
The chances of the USA getting into a shooting war with China so long as the current regime is in charge over there is extremely small (except in the minds of die hard Cold Warriors). Unfortunately, we can't be certain that the current regime will always be in charge. A large fraction, probably a majority, of their population does not benefit from the growing economy. There are many public protests daily even though the participants know they risk police brutality. If a majority of the population loses hope that their lives will ever improve, then the Communist Party will have to divert all that anger outwards to stay in power. And since they've built the Great Firewall they are able to limit alternative, foreign viewpoints.
The economies of Germany, Great Britain, and France were all heavily intertwined in 1914, yet the first world war still happened. Similarly, Germany and the Soviet Union were trade partners in 1941. Never underestimate the power of nationalism to overcome common sense.
If China messs with sea trade, there goes her economy alone.
Major No No.?
Or Im wrong.
NO customers= NO sales.
Let’s just boil this down to the most basic of basics:
What else is China going to do with 30 million fighting-age men who have absolutely no prospect of ever having a girlfriend, let alone a wife…?
…and Chinese air and sea lift capabilities are extremely limited, making an invasion of Taiwan very difficult. I'd be real worried if I shared a land border with China.
And that is exactly why Vietnam is now starting to buy new toys for its military and taking a more cautious but pro-active approach on dealing with the Spratly Islands situation. War will come not across the Taiwan strait, but in the sea south of China, where they drew a map claiming 90% of the area and pissing off virtually every neighboring country.
That boat in the picture looks slightly overloaded..ha ha
http://www.red-dot-scopes.com/
will china launch a war themselve ? they can win the truth? all the seas will belonged to china tomorrow? I just talked to my Chinese partner and she said that Vnam, Philippines, are drinking oil of china sea ! ALL CHINESE PEOPLE HAVE THIS SAME THINKING !!! FUNNY