Furthering our examination of hybrid threats and irregular war, RAND’s Dave Johnson, one of my favorite analysts, has an excellent new paper out, “Military Capabilities for Hybrid War: Insights from the IDF in Lebanon and Gaza.”
Prior to summer 2006, the IDF believed its future was fighting Palestinian terrorists, so, big cuts were made in funding for combined arms training, particularly in the heavy armored units. Air Force forward air controllers were removed from ground brigades. Counterterror operations in the West Bank and Gaza were highly centralized affairs, with the active involvement of Israeli leaders at the highest levels, which over the years had a stifling effect on small unit initiative.
In Lebanon, the IDF faced an opponent with a combat mindset very different from Palestinian terrorists. Hezbollah fought as small, tactically competent units, with lots of firepower, using fortified positions, but also skillfully using the terrain to maneuver and close with Israeli ground forces.
After Lebanon, the IDF set about correcting its many deficiencies. Big money was spent on training and equipping the ground forces with a “back to basics” approach to combined arms. While Israeli armor suffered mightily from Hezbollah’s vast inventory of anti-tank guided missiles, the IDF concluded that heavy armor was still the best protection against increasingly well armed opponents.
The 2008 Gaza operation was intended largely to restore the credibility of the IDF as a deterrent, Johnson says, so there was enormous pressure to perform at a high level. Not surprisingly, they used their best units, backed by lots of artillery, attack helicopters and bombers.
The most significant realization among the IDF in the wake of Lebanon, Johnson said, was that hybrid wars cannot be decided with stand-off precision firepower. Putting troops on the ground, backed by close air support, is absolutely necessary.
Johnson says the following insights from the IDF experience are relevant to the U.S. Army:
1. The basics of combined arms fire and maneuver are necessary for successful operations against opponents with capabilities like Hezbollah and Hamas. These hybrid opponents create a qualitative challenge that demands combined arms fire and maneuver at lower levels, despite their generally small-unit structures. The Israelis had lost these skills after years of preparing for and confronting (understandably) terrorist attacks during the second intifada. The U.S. Army, focused as it necessarily is on preparing soldiers and units for duty in Iraq and Afghanistan, might be approaching a condition similar to that of the Israelis before the 2006 Second Lebanon War: expert at COIN, but less prepared for sophisticated hybrid opponents. Furthermore, the introduction of sophisticated weapons (e.g., ATGMs, MANPADS) could radically escalate the challenges faced by U.S. forces in Afghanistan, as it did for the Soviet Union in the 1980s.
2. Precision, standoff fires are critical, but not sufficient, to cope with hybrid warfare opponents, particularly if they are operating “among the people.”
3. Responsive and adequate air, artillery, and UAV support are critical components of the combined arms fight against hybrid opponents. The well-practiced capacity to integrate these capabilities is a precondition for success.
4. Heavy forces—based on tanks and infantry fighting vehicles—are key elements of any force that will fight hybrid enemies that have a modicum of training, organization, and advanced weapons (e.g., ATGMs and MANPADS). Light and medium forces can complement heavy forces, particularly in urban and other complex terrain, but they do not provide the survivability, lethality, or mobility inherent in heavy forces. Quite simply, heavy forces reduce operational risks and minimize friendly casualties.
– Greg
{ 37 comments… read them below or add one }
Does the paper address how to counter-balance the increased collateral damage of heavier ground formations against a COIN strategy?
I am sorry to say that the RAND paper does not tell us that much about the 2006 Lebanon War and compares "apples and oranges" with the Israeli "Cast Lead" operation in Gaza in 2008-2009. On the military front, the RAND paper misses the point that the Hamas guerilla forces in Gaza lacked the Russian-built Kornet laser-guided ATGMs that played such an important role with the Hizbollah forces in the 2006 fighting in Lebanon. Neither did Hamas ever possess the redundant command and control facilities that Hizbollah had built in Lebanon, including fiber optic facilities that were not vulnerable to Israeli electronic warfare capabilities. Actually, it was observed that low-level Israeli military communications at platoon-company level were sometimes jammed by Hizbollah Iranian-made equipment. Naturally, Hamas never possessed modern guided SSM anti-ship missiles such as the Iranian-made Kowsar that was successfully launched by Hizbollah in July 2006 against the INS missile guided corvette Hanit causing major damage and killing 4 of her crew.
I think you missed the point of the report. It was examining how the IDF responded to two distinctly different conflicts. It was supposed to compare apples and oranges. The Israelis fought both (Hamas and Hizbollah), have a military capability on par with the U.S., and each operation has lessons that should be learned. The point was that the U.S. should be prepared to fight enemies with capabilities far superior to that of the Taliban or the insurgents in Iraq, but less sophisticated than that of a full blown state (i.e. Iran or North Korea). I'm not sure what you expected from a 7-page paper in terms of depth of analysis on specific tactics that worked or didn't work…
In continuing with the analysis of the RAND report relating to the Israeli Defense Force Operation "Cast Lead" in Gaza in 2008-2009, the Israeli "combined arms" tactics did nothing more than follow the ancient Roman maxim of "creating a desert and calling it peace." It is not surprising that the UN investigative report by Justice Goldstone from the Republic of South Africa, established the commission of war crimes by both the IDF, including the intentional destruction of UN humanitarian facilities in Gaza, and the Hamas forces that indiscriminately launched Qassam rockets against Israeli civilian targets.
Excellent report emphasizing the need for combined forces that can operate easily and quickly in fluid terrain. I don't necessarily agree with the IDF's reliance on heavy armor since the only enemy armor it will ever see will be Russian-made T-72s (Range: 1,500 meters). Take Somalia for example. Did then-Def. Sec. Les Aspin's decision not to deploy heavy armor effect the success of the Operation? My answer would be, "no." What do you think?
d
I think the heavy armor is more for defensive purposes when attacking an enemy equipped with ATGMs, RPGs, Mines, IEDs, etc. rather than for use against other armor. The only real armored threat the Israelis face is from Syria, and a poor threat at that.
I agree with your opinion on Somalia. Heavy armor wasn't needed in Somalia because the enemy lacked ATGMs, speed is always good…though I can imagine there might be a significant psychological effect with using them against the Somalis.
Both right & wrong. Heavy armor would likely have made a huge difference in the outcome of the Battle of Mogadishu. If Task Force Ranger had been less predictable, a battle would likely never have occurred to begin with. But a tactical victory, by itself, could not save the operation as a whole. UNOSOM failed to appreciate how it had made enemies out of the militias by putting them out of work. The lack of heavy armor made Les Aspin a failure – he was forced to resign.
YES
Armor would have made a difference for the QRF forces in Somali. Armor can be very effective in an urban environment for providing force protection and mobility especially when facing an enemy that lacks ATGM or skill in employing IED or traditional anti-tank mines. If American armor had been available, things might have looked a little different on 3-4 October.
An AC130 gunship would have helped as well as nearly the entire helicopter force was damaged or destroyed in that battle as well. AC130 could have provided close in support with out risk to the aircraft and crew and has a much better sensor set then anything that was available.
mad mike….I think the deployment of heavy armor at the start of operations in Somalia would have possibly turned the favor of U.S. forces into a possible desirable outcome.
If we're referring to Somalia circa Gothic Serpent, remember that Task Force Ranger was there on an OOTW (Operation Other Then War) – namely, to protect the international operation there, and to grab a few warlords. Even in a lawless place like Somalia, MBTs in a peacekeeping operation are a hard sell.
Also, considering the portrayal of the situation on the ground, I'm not so sure M1s would have done very well, survivability-wise. Too many directions to watch for RPG teams.
If we're referring to Somalia circa Gothic Serpent, remember that Task Force Ranger was there on an OOTW (Operation Other Then War) – namely, to protect the international operation there, and to grab a few warlords. Even in a lawless place like Somalia, MBTs in a peacekeeping operation are a hard sell.
Also, I'm not entirely convinced that M1s would have done very well, based on the presentation of the situation on the ground. Too many directions to watch for RPG teams.
Good Evening Editors,
I see you chose not to put up my post, again. I’m not going into a Zionists thing here but it does appear that Dt has been infested by winger tanks and any opinion that doesn’t agree with there world view doesn’t get posted.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
This is all crap that they left that out and that in and next time they will do that and bla bla. Its all God's (for you Nature's) will to bring surprises out of obvious. For US, Saddam's downing brought Ba'ath Party, IEDs, EFPs, Zawahri. Pakistan's sabers crippled indian advanced hunters and migs in 1965. God/Nature has not created world to just see that obvious chain of events ot obvious survival of fittest.
No war No where, down with Israel
while i agree war suck's but israel is simpley deffending what is there's if you want to say the jew's dont belong there pack your bag's and leave america you dont belong here unless you are native
Good Morning Folks,
Lets see if I can say something that won’t offend the DT censors on this topic.
As indicated in a post above, but not well is, that the war with Hezbollah in the 2006 war. the IDF lost face and lost the war both very badly. In any future conflict Israel will find that they will not be fighting the Hezbollah of 2006. Hezbollah also has learned lessons and have kept up with the technological advances that the Taliban and al Qadea have made while fighting the US.
With out getting into the military tactics of “Combined Arms” it is perhaps the most difficult warfare that a military can engage in, it requires a high level of training of personal, a strong logistic and communication tail and cordinateon between the different branches of a countries military that are very unnatural.
The IDF in 2006 fought using reserve troops mostly and frankly got their butts kicked. What is Israel’s problem, how could a world class ground force be degraded so far so fast?
The answer of course is the population of Israel, with a population of 7,503,800 of witch about 27% is arab/Palestinian, and the Israeli fertility at 2.96, with something around 2.5 be zero population growth. Meanwhile the Palestinian population, in various countries around Israel is something north of 200 million with a fertility rate of 3.1 to 5 (see graph in Wikipedia that will illustrate this) Israel has already lost. The battle for Israel is over, during the past 60 some years has war took place and was won taken in the bedroom not on the battlefield.
Instead of figuring out to fight Hezbollah, the elected government of the Palestinians, Israel should be trying to negotiate with Hezbollah for some kind of a settlement that would allow both side to exist in the same space.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
Well, first wars were won on the battle field, then wars were won in the factories, now its in the bedrooms. Where can I sign up to help some of these Israel soldier honeys do their bit for the war effort?
Good Evening Folks,
Historically wars have always been won in the bedroom. In WW II on the Eastern Front the Germans were overwhelmed by the number of Russians and eventually the Soviet economies ability to produce a lot of simple but effective cheap weapons, although in many critical areas of technology the Germans were a generation ahead of the Soviets. By 1944 when the allies invaded Northern Europe the German forces had exhausted their manpower and were materially depleted on the Eastern Front.
During the Vietnam War one of the calculations that the North Vietnamese used was how many 18 year old males there were going to be each year, this determined what kind of military tactics the North Vietnamese would use. As in WW II Germany females were encouraged to have more children.
The thing regarding Israel that none want to talk about is that the goals of the Holicast were largely meet. Some 65 years after the fact the Jewish population of Europe is only a shadow of its pre World War Two self and Israel has not been able to achieve a sustained population growth that can support its economy and its military needs.
Military tactics like combined arms require a well trained military that is constantly being retrained, combat skills are notoriously perishable. Hezabollah on the other hand has a large base population to recruit from that is strongly motivated to fight and will stay in the field as long as asked to. It would appear that Israel in the long term will not be able to sustain a protracted conflict with Hezabollah incorporating the human resources that a combined arms force would require.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
Byron;
I think this is an accurate, effective case for why terrorism is a political issue, not a military one.
Byron Skinner,
using the term "bedroom" is a lighthearted way of saying something that we economists have always known: DEMOGRAPHY is DESTINY.
And an interesting parallel can be seen here between the demographics of Israel, and those of Europe and the US. Zero population growth is achieved, as you mentioned, at around 2.5 kids per couple (more like 2.7). European and US populations are nowhere near that rate, and what makes up for the deficiency is… immigration. Immigrants in the US, most notoriously Mexican immigrants, (one of them happens to be my wife) have much higher fertility rates than incumbent populations. One of the interesting thing and distinguishing facts about Mexican immigrants when compared to previous immigration waves, however, is that due to the geographical proximity of their natal country they do not fully assimilate into the melting pot of US populace. The demographic shift is already happening, before our very eyes. The consequences are easy to foresee.
I recommend a book: "The Next 100 Years" by George Friedman
It talks about demography, geopolitics, war, and what it means for the US.
Demography is or will soon overwelm Europe.
Cause them buggers have 4 wives even when it is not legal…
Good Evening Folks,
To the poster on “Demography” I’m very familiar with the term but chose “bedroom” to make my point to those who might not be.
The problems of the jewish genetics and that of Mexico are very different. The general population of Mexico is mostly mixed European-African-Native American, There are a few pockets of Indian genetics still left in Mexico but because mostly for economic reasons the are disappearing very quickly as there people leave and mate with the more general mixed population.
This is what decimated the Native North American Population east of the Mississippi. It must be noted that after “the Indian Removal Act” that after 1837 nearly all Native American populations were east of the Mississippi. Indigenous females who had a fertility of rate of 2 when they mated with in their tribe/clan/village/group. When mating with the Europeans and the relatively more comfortable lifestyle the fertility rate jumped to something around 5-6. The answer to this seems to be the wheel and axel, and domesticated any animals to carry loads. The native Americans never got around to inventing the wheel and axel or domesticating animals for work but were highly nomadic.
The native American lived a harsh life, for females when they were on the move she could only carry one child on her body and hold the hand of a second child, thus the fertility limit.
When they mated with the Europeans, the Europeans had wagons and carts that were powered by domesticated animals and the Europeans tended to stay in one place a longer time before moving on, a much less harsh life, thus the female could and did produce more children. By the 21st. Century, about 200 years of inter mating even 1/16 Native American blood is getting hard to find.
On the current Mexican immigration I agree. By the way I live near the border and favor taking down the tortilla curtain and opening the border to all, both ways and putting ICE agents to more productive work like guarding airports and sea ports. Mexican females who mate with “anglos” have twice or better the fertility rate of “anglo” females, I don’t remember the exact number, but if I recall that generally holds true through the second generation after immigration, then essentially the Mexican female becomes “anglicized”. This same thing is also happening in Jewish females who mate with Gentiles for two or more generations, they lose their Jewish identity.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
Israel is a developed country and faces the same fertility rate "wall" that many First World countries encounter. It'll be the end of the Jews; slowly, though unless things change. But at least they will die free. The solution may be in social changes that encourage more children, or evangelicism.
Anyhow. Using reserve troops against Hezbollah was probably not a smart idea. It shows you that Israel has been getting a little too focused on the Palestinians and designated Hezbollah as a lesser threat. However; Israel has been doing a decent job boxing in West Bank and Gaza to control the flow of weapons, which makes the Palestinian foe much weaker in terms of equipment. In contrast, Hezbollah has been getting everything including the kitchen sink from Iran.
The Israelis have some pertinent experience that the US would be wise to analyze as quickly as possible. American experience in OIF was with a bribed foe that was all too willing to melt away. In Afghanistan, it was the same, except the Taliban wasnt going to stand and fight in the same fashion; and lacked the logistical preparations that Hezbollah had.
But I think Hezbollah's case is unique. They have been fighting since the '80s. They know their foe pretty well. They also have excellent funding and equipment sources from Iran. They are probably also getting trainers from Iran as well. The Taliban and the Iranians may not see eye to eye, so the spigot of money and equipment won't be opening for the Taliban any time soon. Pakistan will arm them, but in a clandestine fashion, and there won't be any "Made in Pakistan" laser-guided ATGM missiles in the aid package.
Liberal use of napalm and white phosphorous woulkd have discouraged Hezbollah. Dig them out like we did on Okinawa, i,e. "blowtorch and corkscrew" (flamethrowers and explosives).
Pat:
"Senior Northern Command officer tells Ynet that soldiers killed in Lebanon Wednesday were part of mission aimed at uncovering 40-meter deep poured concrete bunkers along border. Despite challenges, army determined to complete operation"
<http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3278675,00.html>” target=”_blank”>;http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3278675,00.html>
Napalm? Really? Just like the artillery was supposed to clear the way in world war one…
I wonder how a UAV can detect bunkers, asides from visual identification. It sounds like bunker finding will be the "next IED"; and that the military ought to work on it now before Americans have to start finding bunkers the fun way.
WASN'T it a bunch of APC's that eventually extracted the Somalia tf?
Believe it was the 10th in conjunction with Pakistani tanks and APCs. Wikipedia calls it Humvees, trucks, Condor APCs, "four Pakistani tanks" (M48s I presume?) with Blackhawk and Cobra support.
If there were Cobras…Believe it was the 10th in conjunction with Pakistani tanks and APCs. Wikipedia calls it Condor APCs, "four Pakistani tanks" (M48s I presume?) with Blackhawk and Cobra support.
I imagine Cobra gunships might've helped considerably compared to having Blackhawks on station.
Good Morning Folks,
I think the poster who said “Israel is a developed country…” The only point I might have some disagreement with is the role of Iran. I’m of the belief that Hezabollsh’s principle benefactor is Syria. Syria like sitting in the shadows, but is a major player. The Syrians who have lots of cash were the arms brokers for Saddam and still currently Iran with Russia and China. An example is the SA-18 shoulder fired ADM from Russia. The Russians want cash al Qaeda needed credit Stria steps in buys SA-18′s from Russia for $60k euro’s sell to al Qaeda on credit for use against US helicopters in 2005-6 for $80K euros. Who handles the transaction? The terrorists favorite banker since 1945 Deutsche Bank, Domascus branch.
I won’t go into the history here, I’ll let that be for another time, but the funding of terrorists can be traced back to 1945, Odessa East, The Vatican, Istanbul, WW II time relations between the Nazi SS and the German Banking system and the movement of Nazi assets after the war through Switzerland, Turkey and into Egypt, the charter of Deutsche Bank in Cairo with a board of directors many of whom were on the post war most wanted list, the opening of Deutsche branches in Stria, Iraq, Iraq, Jordan, Pakistan etc. and the sudden increase of well funded terrorist in the area. The funding brings up many questions such as the reluctance of the US to go after the middle men who facilitate East African Pyracy.
Before any of you get of on this is just another tale of an imagined conspiracy theory you many want to check out some articles and books that have appeared in the UK, but seem never to be able to find a US publisher that deal with this topic.
A place to start is the unaccounted 3-6 tons of gold. The Swiss in the 1990′s when they settled with the holicast survivors, claimed to have 3 tones of the Nazi war time gold. The estimated take by the Nazis was something north of 9 tons.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
You are probably right. I imagine pinning *everything* onto Iran isn't fair to Iran and is oversimplifying the matter. Also, when seizures of ships with weapons heading into Lebanon from Iran are reported, it ignores the fact that it's probably much easier to smuggle weapons into Lebanon from Syria, and thus nobody really has a good clue how much stuff is getting in from Syria.
You're probably right. I suspect a reporting bias; in that shipments from Syria to Lebanon do not get "seized" very often, and so we have a poor picture of the logistics supply chain from Syria to Hezbollah.
Good Morning Folks,
It appears that we have a fan base in the administration. Only a little over two weeks since Senator John Kerry meet with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and was assured everything is OK and issued the statement “…(Syria is) an essential player in bringing peace and stability to the region.” The White House called Syrian Deputy Chief of Mission to the White House “wood shed” and was made aware that the US was not happy with Syria providing “Scuds” to Hezbollah.
I wonder if we on DT were not talking about Syria this past weekend and arms transfers, if the administration would have taken notice of this little transaction by Syria and Hezbollah?
LLONS,
Byron Skinner
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The best way to fight terrorists that I know is to surround and isolate entire cities and towns with MRAP units and then to do regular house by house sweeps. Never lifting the isolation, until all terrorists are flushed out. It isn't very popular with the inhabitants though.
we understand it is use artillery for before under construction, investigation for scheduled construction areas. It is very difficulty scales soil's.
No designation, heavy quaking, it is so hard. There is no fault at SanFrancisco,in California. No fault is no eathquake. Sanandreas is not here , in California, SanFrancisco. The evidence is construction area's designation. In California, at SanFrancisco.
We must memmory, study of history. It is so hard memory needed. Memory is study, must understand.