The Hudson Institute’s Richard Weitz, posting over at Second Line of Defense, says Russian arms sales to China are drying up as Chinese industry increasingly builds its own high-tech weaponry and Beijing objects to Russian technology transfer restrictions.
Since 2001, Russia has sold more than $16 billion worth of arms to China, with yearly sales peaking at $2.7 billion, he writes; accounting for nearly 40 % of all major Russian arms sales. In recent years, however, things have changed:
“Since 2005, the PRC has stopped purchasing Russian warships or warplanes and has ceased signing new multi-billion arms sale contracts… The director of Russia’s state-controlled arms export company, Rosoboronexport, recently forecast that the value of Russian arms sold to China could decline to as low a level as 10 percent of the value of all Russian military exports in coming years. Some defense experts believe that figure could fall even further.”
China now competes with Russia in lucrative international arms markets by offering Russian knock-offs at bargain prices, or, without the onerous restrictions often imposed by Moscow. “Chinese manufacturers are producing either more completely indigenous advanced weapons systems or more defense technologies, sub-systems, and other essential components that Chinese manufactures can insert directly into foreign-made systems.”
Chinese firms adroitness at reverse engineering foreign technology is well known. A case in point: the Chinese built J-11B fighter. Russia gave the Chinese the designs to the Sukhoi-27 fighter in 1995 after the Chinese agreed to purchase 200 kits to produce it under local license. In 2004, after building 100 planes, the Chinese cancelled the contract for the remaining fighters, claiming they no longer met Chinese requirements. Soon after, the knock off J-11B began appearing for sale on international markets.
– Greg Grant
{ 41 comments… read them below or add one }
maybe they will drive each other out of the market. Russian will no longer be able to afford an aggressive R&D program if China just sells the stuff for cheap and China won't have anything to make copies of if Russia can't afford a good R&D program.
A suspect the best we can hope for is less innovation from Russia slowing the progress of high tech arms from those two suppliers.
I wonder what would happen if U.S. firms tried to compete with the Russians and Chinese in the cheaper arms arena? Surely reverse engineering an Su-27 would be easier for Boeing than for the Chinese. Dry up their export money some.
Ahem…http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.p…
That is not how markets function. Instead the Russians will diversify their sales. There are plenty of countries which would purchase Russian weapons but for political restrictions placed on the sales by Moscow.
Iran is a good example. Their desire for advanced weaponry will be met one way or the other and the Russians are better off supplying thier top the range equipment rather then trying to use it for a weak cold war bargaining chip.
And with the US currently shirking it’s duties around the world and the UN a toothless watchdog, China’s gonna make bank.
Good Evening Folks,
What’s the story here. It is well know that the Russian industrial base is collapsing as the former workers from the Soviet era, that stayed around after the 1990′s are getting old and leaving the industry without any replacements.
The Chinese on the other hand are really not even close to being a peer industrial power to the EU, United States, Canada, South Korea, India, Japan Brazil or Australia especially in the technology heavy aircraft and military ship building industries.
The Su-27 copies the J-10/J-11′s are 1960′s technology or a contemporary to the US F-16A, of which China has had a copy of via Pakistan for over two decades and still can’t figure it out.
Lets face facts, the Chinese have not been really good at producing aircraft and have had a lot of very notable failures in the past 50 years. Meanwhile most of the countries in Asia and South Asia are buying Russian and are flying the far more able Mig-29′s and Su-30/33′s. I would guess outside of Pakistan, who would much rather buy the US F-16D then any Chinese product there is a rather limited market for the J-10/11′s.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
Trouble is, the aerospace workforce is rapidly aging everywhere, except China and India. India has not demonstrated much. Australia is content with being China's resource appenage.
Except the US has the pipeline to replace the workforce. Tight yes but there shouldnt be major issues.
I think you under estimate the Chinese aviation industry. They are not at European levels, but they are not more than half a generation behind.
http://cnair.top81.cn/J-10_J-11_FC-1.htm
I think you under estimate the Chinese aviation industry. They are not at European levels, but they are not more than half a generation behind.
http://cnair.top81.cn/J-10_J-11_FC-1.htm
Well the US military wishes China was a peer or close to it which is why they put out the "China threat" rhetoric. These so called "dragonslayers" are actually "pandahuggers" in disguise relying on China to line their pockets.
As for J-10 it is easy comparable to the F-16C/D at a fraction of the price, especially the B variant with DSI (Diverterless Supersonic Intakes).
Ruusia is the most powerful nation on earth, nobody could ever defeat them or their equipment. We will rule forever with the mighty magnificant and majestic Putin as our leader. He is a god among men and I am deeply in love with him for he is all powerful.
yea maybe if you knew how to spell Russia (RUUsia)
Russia got their ass spanked in Afghanistan
Well, this is your lucky day because Putin does have a taste for men.
You're a fool LOL
LOL… China not even close to India?? What indigenuous plane has India make and being operational?? Have you heard of JH-7A, FC-1, J-10 ,J-8II, K-8 and A-5?
Go read up more of China military capabilities before you embarass yrself more.
Maybe you should read before you embarrass yourself (and also learn how to spell "embarrass"), he said India isn't close to China, not the other way around.
Chinese quality leaves a bit to be desired, but the Russians are already in such bad shape that they don't need the Chinese taking what sales they have. India is going to become even more critical to the Russians- especially as it concerns the PAK-FA.
Russian fighters were never known for their workmanship. The J-11B is supposed to have higher production quality overall IIRC.
Yes, Russians are in so bad shape, so their military exports increase 25% each year and their offers backlog reached $35 billions as of now lol
I'm going along with 'Skinner' here. Even if China is somehow able to make a decent copy of maybe (ha!) an 80s technology plane, it's still an old design. Two: the range of this plane is nothing and they don't even think about the refueling Tankers either. Three: 'Power Projection' is something that America and NATO has done since before i was born and take time to learn (gotta walk before you can run you know). Four: OK they can build and sell them or keep them for themselves, so what? Does that mean they want War? Not likely. To take over the Arms market somewhere? Now that's most likely. So this means what to US? We sell more of our arms throughout the world , more and more and more and finance our DOD budget and make the US go broke to do it. Our DOD budget is HOW large of the overall budget? And who is a very ditant second BTW? And we need this much money for Offense, I mean Defense? How about we spend that on having 'commercial free' Television, the mail coming on time, better airline transportation, shopping malls and decent Schools? I got an idea, why don't we set up a large BBQ pit in the Congress bldg so when they want to talk to a bank manger he might think about it and relate it's 'size' to what he did and wonder if Americans are cannibals, really? Maybe we can put up a Guillotine on Wall street too? It might sell, who knows?
Good Afternoon Folks,
The once great Soviet Union is simply no more. The Russian Federation is not even a shadow of the old Soviet Union. The current Russian exports in military items is licensing production to India, South Korea, technology to China especially in air defense and ballistic missiles which as The Russian Federation might see come back to them in ways they would prefer not.
The new Russian Federation are having to turn to old pre-Soviet allies such as France for aid in rebuilding it’s industrial infrastructure.
To the poster from The Russian Federation, the old Soviet Union has been swept into the rubbish pile of history. The new Russian Federation must exist with in the context of the rest of Eurasia or it will be overwhelmed by either the east or the west.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
http://www.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123201467 B-1 as Air Borne laser platform? Assuming we improve the laser, this would be light years ahead of the Chinese as is the X-37.
Fix the F-35 Vistol, save the tools for the Raptor and no one is going to be bitching about the Chinese stealing the Russians blind unless they steal us blind too…..
Airborne laser is dead, and will remain dead. It was based on a chemical laser, not practical at all. Unless you want to set up a supply chain for tons of highly toxic chemicals in a battle-space. No one does…
Solid state lasers show promise(textron / northrop working on them among others – I think textron has one they want to put on an f-22/f-35)
Free Electron Lasers(Raytheon, and someone else are on this) are probably the future, but need alot of work.
I'm sure the Russians kick themselves when Russian troops get killed by Russian weapons, starting during the brief shooting war between Russia and China and ending with Afghanistan and Chechenya. Back then it was small arms, and soon it'll be tanks, ADA and everything else.
Perhaps the Russians will think twice before exporting all of their shiny new toys to everyone in a willy-nilly fashion. Or they may consider a few particular items as too sensitive for export, much as the US treasures the F-22.
so did the US
All you F22 fans which used to include myself , should read this
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/arti…
My guess is that the F22 is years away from fulfilling its full operational ability.
Looks to me like the Eurofighter will come out as the best bang for buck fighter compared to the F35 and F22 .
Better servicability , Multirole capability and its performing as described on the tin !
Eurofighter? And only 9 years late!
All these goes to show that that is why we retain control of much of our technology when we sell it abroad. ;)
This F22 story was thoroughly debunked:
http://www.f-16.net/news_article3622.html
Isn't it amazing how stupid people like 'tim' here are still dragging up rubbish journalism that was debunked the day after it came out. Some things will never cease to amaze me…
Call it stupid journalism if you like but I suspect its two sides of the same coin fighting over statistics which can be interpreted any way you like. The debunking linked sounds a lot more like the official party line and the “stupid journalism” sounds a lot more like somebody with an axe to grind or some whistle blower. There are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics…
Until I meet a pilot and a maintanance crew chief in a bar and speak to them for their honest opinions, I’m unlikely to come down on either side of whats been written and debunked* here.
* clearly some points are debunkable but the author or source might have been trying to make a different point, its not clear.
The j-11 nor the even the j-10 is being is not for export. Only the JF-17 is being marketed abroad and exported to Pakistan. The writer doesn't know what he is talking about and is talking from his ass.
I never knew that Chinese scammed Russians on that kit deal. But even if they did not it was clear back then that they were going to steal any tech they could from those planes. Arguably the newer Russian mods of Su-27 (30-33) are significantly better. The question is whether the prospective buyers of that ancient platform want better or cheaper.
As far as Russian arms sales go. Venezuela is a big buyer. Which is a purely political play. Several other deals are purely one-offs like the old carrier to India. BAE alone probably outsells Russia on open market.
Chinese copying of Russian technology can't be fairly assessed unless and until some kind soul defects with a current-production aircraft. We'd be on a lot firmer ground in speculating if some Chinese Belenko would fly into Japan with an aircraft.
India has cash, wants cachet and technology. They are not likely, in the near to middle term, to re-export hardware of Russian design. Nothing but a common heritage of bureaucratic incompetence is really holding them up, in terms of joint efforts. The PAK-FA makes perfect sense for both of them, as a project … if they can get their acts together.
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China isnt really exporting any Russian stuff, infact Russia is getting more sales via China! If you go to http://www.jf-17.com you'll see that its using Russian engines, and so more sales
Ha Ha That's the only thing, Russia can sells to PRC. And it is drying up.
The Russian made RD93 used on the JF17 will be replaced by the China's WS13 soon. Already WS10A is starting to replace AL31F used by J10A or J11B.
1. China buys Russian made engine as an interim solution while its is sorting out its own production schedule.
2. China will buys Russian arm to balance her trade inbalance with Russia. What can Russia sells to her beside ARM. China own 5th generation fighter program is ahead of Russia.
The comment simply show to me, most of you people here have No idea what you are saying.
2012 now with the bottleneck issue, the aero-engines resolved e.g. WS10A, AS15 etc. the technology gap between between Russia and China will widened in China favour.
My prediction, China and Russia will COLLABORATE and developed new products.
Russia and China does not have any nagging border issue any more.
Those with the obvious bigotry should read more e.g. China has the most 5th generation fighter programs in the world today, her research in Quantum Computer is very advanced.