When analyzing China’s naval modernization one of the most difficult aspects to discern is: What’s behind it all? China is clearly intent on becoming a real maritime power; but is that a strategic choice made out of necessity or out of a desire to challenge other nations on the high seas.
Two China watchers, Gabriel Collins and Michael Grubb, in China Goes to Sea, argue that China is embarking on a different development path than other nations that sought to become maritime powers.
“The Soviet Union, Meiji Japan, and Wilhelmian Germany built their navies first and then promoted merchant marine development. Thus the relationship was based on a “push” from the state, rather than a “pull” in which commercial interests led the way and then the state stepped in to create the capacity to protect these new commercial maritime interests.
China is following a different path marked by an emphasis on commercial maritime development, with naval development trailing. If China continues to expand its naval forces, the drivers will include a mix of a desire for status in the international community and a perceived need to defend economic interests, but the single most prominent element will be that Beijing’s policymakers are struggling to keep up with China’s dynamic commercial mariners.”
How strong is that “pull” from China’s dynamic commercial mariners? In 1980, China built 220,000 tons of commercial shipping; China is on pace to exceed 20 million tons in 2010. As the authors point out, the push for that huge expansion in commercial shipbuilding came in the late 1970s with Deng Xiaoping’s reform and “opening up” to the world; which included a process of “defense conversion,” transforming inefficient defense industries into viable commercial enterprises.
The interesting thing to watch will be whether China moves to put in place some of the key missing elements – such as overseas bases and a large logistical support fleet – it needs if it intends to provide true global security coverage for its far reaching mariners.
– Greg Grant
{ 17 comments… read them below or add one }
Is it me or does that ship in back look like it has a phased array radar? Probably something else somebody sold to them…
Sri Lanka for first overseas logistical base.
They're going to need AOE type ships to provide underway replenishment for ships escorting tankers going back & forth from the Persian Gulf. The route to the USA will not require much protection. But the sea route to Europe is impressively long. Do they ship goods by rail instead?
Good Morning Folks,
Some good questions Greg. What I see with the PRC is an attempt to create a vertical monopoly not unlike the “British East India Company” of the 18th. Century. Controlling the overseas transport of you own goods and raw materials creates several attractive economic advantages for a country. The first of course being the bottom line. The are a lot of very good reasons why there are so many billionaires among shipping company owners.
Also controlling the transportation of goods. make it easier for a Chinese company to change the consignee for goods in transit. International law get a little sticky here, but it would appear that title to the good is with the shipping company until the goods are received by the consignee. As a net exporter In unstable economic times this could give the PRC a lot leverage as well as political power.
Another point is that military cost money and don’t generate any cash flow, a merchant fleet generates a huge cash flow. I would not be at all surprised that a Chinese built large container ship didn’t actualize it cost and cover its overhead on its first trip fully loaded. With the maritime threat limited to regional Pyrates the PRC has no reason to go to the expense of building and maintaining a blue water PLAN.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
Something that the original article misses. No country is a monolithic entity. China is no exception.
There are cases where commercial and state interests are linked (in China, that can be a very close link, too) but it's by no means the rule.
A monopoly would require that commercial interests be entirely ruled by the needs of the state. This used to be the case, but now, in modern China, money is the new god, and money is what drives business decisions.
Any country that derives so much benefit from its merchant marine must build a blue water navy. That's the political imperative behind the PLAN.
What actual kinds of ships that means is down to naval planners. Based on my own experience of another navy, they want something with big guns and lots of fancy electronics. They don't want dirt being tracked all through their nice new boats.
In other words…
Merchant powers need a navy. The navy they get isn't usually the navy they need.
I wonder what they would use as criteria when making a basing choice. Would it just be political (as in who will take the base with minimal international fuss) or would it be somehow connected to the number of Chinese already living in the area (so commercial I guess). When you look at this( http://wapedia.mobi/en/Overseas_Chinese?t=5.#6. ) the country that stood out was Peru. So based on almost no real knowledge I’m going for Peru.
Byron, you are missing a big aspect of the Chinese wanting a blue water navy. Simple ambition. They want to be able to project power as well as the US someday.
I hope we do everything in our power to maintain and modernize a strong 300+ ship Navy, but it will be interesting to see what direction the Chinese take. Will they want supercarriers, or follow the Cold War Soviet Navy example?
China has over 60 shipyards, most being green-field. We build "Rolex" ships, they are building "Timex" ships…..Some day: we are going to get our asses kicked.
PhantomPhixer
I say its the State Push for defense & then send in spies to steal more secrets ala Cold War 1.
This is Cold War 2 Today
You get some very tortured analysis from the think tanks because Americans just cant get their head around the simple fact that China is going to replace us as the world's lead nation. The Chinese know it and the rest f the world knows it but Americans are in deep denial – alternating between belittling the Chinese and hiding under the bed in abject terror.
The Chinese also have a big advantage that they are not mired in cold war nostalgia and thus can size there forces necessary to do the job. Forces for protecting their allies and arbitrating disputes around the world is all that is needed. Not fantasies of WW3.
The Chinese are a practical people they go with what works and the military-economic strategy that worked so well during the cold war for the west is how they will rise to the top. It helps greatly that America is largely blind to this having become completely self-absorbed and prone to fits of pique that just promote Chinese offers.
Totally agree with what you said.
The Chinese are not interested in policing the world, like the West. Chinese are more interested in going about their business and making lots of money. These days you can project far more power with money than any piece of military hardware. Just think of it this way: Is it in anyway financially profitable to start WW3? I don't imagine so…. Chinese people are more capitalist that you think.
Amen to that thought.
Good Morning Folks,
Just a simple question, who should China be concerned about enough to spend the trillion or more USD’s to build, train and support a “Blue Water Fleet”?
Don’t say Pyrates, they are little more then a nuisance to maritime trade. The $50-75 million dollar they extract in yearly ransoms is peanuts to what it would cost to chase them down. As the USN is currently doing make a show with ships routinely deployed and call it an effort. The Chinese are using the anti Pyracy mission to get some crew training in and to work with western Navies.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
Perhaps we (USA) need to Mmanufacture/ produce/ add advance 5000 long range/ high speed missile boats on our (USA) borders and the on the pacific
I thought operation praying mantis proved that missile boats time in the sun was going down..or at least that it was very situationally dependent.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the Chinese military, even more so than our own, is a great avenue of upward mobility for the Chinese lower classes. There are still teeming masses of peasants in the Chinese interior that don't have the money or connections to get a modern education or otherwise cash-in on the recent (late?) economic boom. The navy in particular is a good way to train young men on modern equipment, bolster their patriotism with government paychecks, and expose them to the outside world.
The Navy might then not be so much a protection for the Chinese Merchant Marine, but rather a government-controlled parallel venture. Remember that the PLA for a long time was more of a tool of economic development, running hotel chains and whatnot, than a purely military force.
Is this no longer true today in the armed forces of the United States? The military was good to people who didn't have the right connections to get into the right colleges, or heck, for people who didn't see college as their first choice, moreso since manufacturing is no longer viable and service industry doesn't pay in proportion to the work.