Props to Steve Trimble at The DEW Line for posting a very interesting analysis of China’s new J-20 stealth fighter by Russian aerospace expert Vladimir Karnozov. He takes a look at the defining physical features of the jet to conclude that it’s most likely designed to be a long-range carrier killer.
I won’t get into all the technical reasoning Karnozov uses to come to this determination, however, he essentially says that the big jet is built for speed not maneuverability. Basically, the jet is designed to be stealthy and fast enough to evade enemy air defenses and fire anti-ship cruise missiles.
My impression from the J-20 is that it is an uncompromised airplane for supercruise, for flying at moderate supersonic speeds corresponding to Mach M=1.4–1.6. Such speeds can be achieved without afterburning. Surely, the J-20 can accelerate to M=2 and faster, but this would require engaging afterburners. In turn, the fuel burn will go high, lowering operational range of the aircraft and enlarging its heat signature.
In my view the Chinese designers optimized their new jet for M=1.4–1.6. Here comes the clue: the J-20 is a missile launching platform able to evade enemy interceptors by means of a high cruise speed. The J-20 may prove a good interceptor, — very possibly. But its main task seems to be anti-shipping: firing missiles at enemy warships while denying their air defense cover.
One day it may happen that the new Chinese jets would be used in anger. On such a day People’s Liberation Army would order its pilots to attack enemy warships off the coast of a freedom-loving island not far from the mainland China. In that sense the J-20 is a likely replacement for the JH-7A strike aircraft.
However, Teal Group aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia thinks that using the J-20 as a carrier killer doesn’t make sense given the fact that stealth jets cost so much to develop and China is already working on ballistic missiles designed to do the same thing:
If real, [J-20] would fall under Secretary Gates “exquisite” category. Why not invest the enormous platform-related resources into better long-range stealth missile technology? That sounds like much better bang for the buck, especially since they could try to overwhelm US defenses with larger numbers that way. Also, how does it explain those radar signature-producing canards on the J-20? Still, you can’t discount the possibility.
Here’s a link to Trimble’s posting featuring a translation of Karnozov’s article. Check it out for the technical reasons as to why the plane is a long-range strike jet, not an air superiority fighter.
What do you guys think of this? Anyone have any more insight into the purpose of the J-20? We at DT have noted that the plane is awfully big for a fighter. It may be a sort of 21st century F-111 optimized to hit carriers and the like. Or, as Karnozov also points out, a plane this big could be a very fast interceptor like the old MiG-25. Maybe its just a tech demonstrator meant to prove that Beijing can build an airplane capable of stealth and supercruise. At the end of the day, we’re likely to keep guessing until the Chinese government spills the beans as to the true purpose of the J-20.
{ 15 comments… read them below or add one }
Maybe not a carrier, but It would be in Chinas interest to be able to destroy a Cruiser or other surface ship.
IMHO, The US Navy and Air Force are 25+ years ahead of whatever the public is allowed to know. If we ever were engaged in Serious conflict with China, their air force would probably be non-operational by the end of the week. Mach 1.6 cruising speed still cant outrun a directed energy weapon. We already have technology that makes the J20 Obsolete. Let China keep buying expensive military equipment! There comes a point when America has to step back and realize who is in charge. We are. By no means could China out perform the US military. And thats using information we are allowed to know, not what DARPA and Skunkworks have up their sleeves.
Assessment – J20 will never be used in actual Air to Air or Air to Ship operations against the United States. Honestly, if they sink an Aircraft Carrier, would it be worth our B1B's and B2's leveling half of their cities? After retaliation for sinking a carrier, we would be a few chess moves away from Nuclear War. China wants to do what every other large nation wants…survive.
Ten years from now Chinese and American Astronauts will be sharing a moon base. All signs point to China gradually becoming democratic along with the rest of the modernized world. Their entire youth are buying iPhones and watching YouTube. There will come a time when they open up to the rest of the world. Until then, they probably have a dozen of these jets! Good Luck with that "attack" lol !
Now I am not an expert, but my initial impressions are much the same. The fighter is simply to big to be a strictly AtoA platform so a strike fighter seems to fit the profile or a tech demonstrator. I’m sure the Chinese engineers are waiting to hear what the world and its western analysts have to say about the fighter before making any big structural changes.
A strike aircraft maybe, but as a "Carrier Killer" it lacks a whole lot of things to make it effective:
1. Payload. Does anyone think it can carry as many missiles as a Backfire or Blackjack or even a Chinese B-6 Badger knock-off? didn't think so. How many missiles internally? How big was the F-111s internal bomb bay?
2. Range. See one above, change payload to range.
3. Targeting Capability. How are they going to find the carrier? See anything that faintly resembles a large radome on that thing? Lack of range means they don't get to search for it. Better against AWACS or ground targets.
4. Supercruise is really not worth nearly as much when you have a zero deflection shot, going fast just puts you in the kill zone faster.
A J-11 (SU-27 knockoff) is a bigger worry. More akin to a MiG-31 is my opinion, but I am willing to wait the 10 or so years it will take to figure it out. The hand wringing and prophets of doom remind me of the MiG-25 debate.
Until they could manage to produce a decent jet engine, we don’t have to be overly concerned. This thing looks clumsy and is most likely a tech demonstrator as well as feel-good propaganda for domestic audiences.
If it is fast and hard to spot – it can get close to a carrier and fire a supersonic anti-ship missile.
Probably more realistic and reasonable than the anti-ship ballistic missile.
At least this plane won’t accidentally start a nuclear missile war.
“Richard Aboulafia thinks that using the J-20 as a carrier killer doesn’t make sense given the fact that stealth jets cost so much to develop”
Much less than a carrier costs. Combine this with China’s intent to control their zone of the Pacific Region west of Hawaii, having a mobile and stealthy carrier-killer platform seems entirely reasonable. Such a tool seems like it could change the dynamics of the US Navy’s ability to project power via operations near the Chinese coast, but much farther out than if China had to rely merely on land-based or ship-based anti-carrier missiles. Reminds me of reports of Chinese subs popping up in the middle of US Navy exercises near Taiwan. This could act as a territorial denial tool for a huge swath of ocean territory, perhaps?
Good Evening Folks,
The J-20 as a carrier killer, give me a break this is only a deception to keep prying eyes from what is really going on in China.
There are two strategic weapons that are currently under manufacture in the PRC that will change the balance of power.
The first know as Mao’s Thunder is a satellite, launched into polar orbit it will be large and known to all as a communication or weather satellite. There are six of these planned. When the satellite is activated for war, the side panels will open up clam shell style to extent the photo electric power cells. Two small satellites will be releases and go about a 100km on either side away from the mother craft. When they are in position the main satellite will rotate 90 deg and point toward it targets on earth. Inside the main satellite will be canister of six, 6 meter x 350 mm darts made of depleted U-238 and Titanium alloy blend. The two smaller satellites that are now 200 km apart are a rangefinder. The Chines have solved the parallax problems that were first noticed by the German optical firm of Schlesien and Emden in 1926 when they were working on a torpedo guidance system for German U-Boats, the never could to the British relief, figure how to solve the problems. One part of the rangefinder will focus on the target the second will focus in the rear of the dart, where the electronica and guidance system is.
The Chinese have put the heat sensitive electronics at the back of the darts the reason is to keep them from being destroyed and to maintain communications on the way to the target.
The targets will include but not be exclusive to US Carriers that are in port and in mid ocean. But any other defense infrastructure like the Missile defense system radars. With a speed of Mach-25+ and an accuracy of 5 meter CPE on an object traveling at 40 knots the darts will hit what they are aimed at.
The next weapon under development is Dragon Fangs. This is a lighter then air dirigible a little longer then the Hindenburg at 350 meters. It will carry inside a fleet of six supersonic cruise missiles each armed with five nuclear weapons. The bombs will be JADAM II style and each can be independently dropped on a target,. Four weapons in closed bomb bays for stealth and the air frame itself will be a weapon.
The digigibles will cross the pacific in formation with 1000km order of march at or near water level out of normal shipping lanes and flight lanes to avoid detection as they near the US coast the fleet of air ships will break formation and separate into attack cells and launch nuclear strike missions form the Canadian to Mexican border and Hawaii and Guam.
The dirigibles will be nuclear powered, with a part graphite and duralumin structure and be radar adsorbent micro fiber cloth outer skin. Each ship will have eight electrical powered engines. The manufacturing is taking place in many small factories and is not drawing the attention of US satellites. Hey fabric is fabric.
The J-20 and The Carrier killer DF-21D are just to keep the know nothing American military media and FOX/CNN entertained while the real weapons are being made in secret.
ALLONS,
Byron Skinner
Mao’s Thunder sounds Like our “Rods from God” concept…
Just look at when the Japenese invaded China. We had to help the Chinise get the Japenese out of their country and the Japenese were outnumberd.
China has been fighting wars for hundreds of year, at first internal wars like the Three Kingdom, then the European invasion at the beginning of the last century, then the Japanese invasion. They are not that stupid to fight any more wars that waste everone time. Just ask the Chinese premier what the J-20 is for. No need to guess its usage. He may tell you. .
THis is how we will get to space http://www.space.com/13954-paul-allen-stratolaunc…
they say it will be flying by the end of the decade
Production and development are VASTLY different beasts.
Sinking a carrier is a MAJOR act of war. I would think bombing of their military facilities would be an immediate reaction.
The j20 are develope to kill the phillipines!?The j20 are develope to kill the phillipines!?The j20 are develope to kill the phillipines!?The j20 are develope to kill the phillipines!?
I mean ey need a stealth to kill a mosquito. And thats the phillipines. Lol