Here’s the latest evidence (aside from Chinese officials saying so already) suggesting that China’s first aircraft carrier will likely put to sea very soon; the construction trailers are starting to be removed from the Shi Lang’s (ex Soviet Varyag) flight deck.
That image was presented last night on China Defense Blog along with the hilarious sentence: “Looks like the PLAN does not like to see single-wides parked at their prime real estate – get those tornado magnets outta here.”
These next two pictures show a Shi Lang that looks less like a construction project and more like a ship that could be underway soon:
Here are more new shots of the nearly completed ship.
{ 48 comments… read them below or add one }
They are just fixing up an old skateboard ramp.
China is really determined to reduce their strategic security. You might be wondering how, since most people associate buying new hardware with increased strength. Well if you build a honking piece of crap, but force your enemies to be fielding even more deadly high quality platforms, the security picture actually deteriorates overall. The more you threaten your powerful neighbors the more they prepare for a war that they will try to be prepared to win before the first shot is fired.
So how would I increase Chinese national security in a way that didn't threaten their neighbors? Simple, transition to real live free market democratic republic. Follow up with sincere moves like releasing political prisons and ending the slave labour camps. Recharter the Army and the Police forces to defend and serve the nation, not the party. Force the entire political leadership into exile as democratic institutions take place. Stop funding that crackpot NK regime. Free Tibet, and apologize for the occupation.
I guarantee you China will be a far more stable and safe country with no serious external threats with membership in a powerful democratic alliance in a matter of a few years, with neighbors that have demobilized their armies. In essence a real security plan.
Yep, and their military will be mounted on unicorns and they will shoot rainbows out of their guns.
And after they've done that, their powerful democratic allies can walk all over them and make demands, or just slap them in the face for fun.
Your proceeding under the assumption that those in power are willing to just let it go and walk away. As June 4, 1989 shows they are willing to fight tooth and nail to stay in power. While I would love to see what you propose happen, I don't think it will come about without a serious bout of bloodshed.
I think you missed the point, I am just saying that China is shooting itself in the foot, doing everything that it can to avoid the only choices that could provide for meaningful security and progress for China as a whole. Every step away from the transition to a stable democratic republic fro,m a fascist militarist state is actually a step back hastening a most likely a civil war with a heavily splintered army supporting different factions that arise when the central state can no longer hold everything together. I think we are just waiting for the event that will have the state come tumbling down.
So to summarize, no I don't expect them to actually to do something genuinely beneficial for their own country. I was just outlining what a truly effective game changing security plan would look like, which would be "stop giving everyone a reason to kill you".
agreed, become a prey is safer in the jungle……
You aren't entirely wrong, though I think that history shows that relying on alliances for defence is irresponsible.
China isn't a "fascist militaristic state". It's a radically free market economy that is slowly learning to reign in the worst excesses of capitalism. The government is about as democratic as most Asian countries; I would place it on a par with Singapore and slightly ahead of the Philippines.
Security through obscurity may one day be a viable strategy. It sure isn't now… it's a jungle, and there are all kinds of predators in it.
You really believe that China is some "radically free market" state? Most of the economy is command driven and businesses are usually owned by the party or its members. They seem to have more in common with Nazi Germany's anarcho-Corruptiion model where all big business is driven by the connected and all small business is left to the jungle. As long as you can pay the bribes, you can get whatever you want. Private property is still not a right in China. Major US companies have had whole factories stolen from them from connected businessmen. If there isn't a respect for private property, you can't call it Free Market.
As for China being more democratic than Singapore or the Philippines, how in the world did you get that impression? When was the last time Singapore sent tanks to crush protestors? Where are the slave labour camps in the Philippines? Both the Philippines and Singapore are functioning democratic republics where you will not be killed for protesting the government. What happens if the police even suspect a protest in China, like the recent jade protests?
And NO you missed the point, this is not security through obscurity, and its not even a call for disarming their military, its about transitioning to a Democratic Republic from a Fascist Militarist State. The world would be less threatened by a Democratic China than a Fascist China, hence there would less need to be ready for war.
Wait, what about freeing Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Ningxia. Wait, you know what, lets just make every province in China a separate country, for the sake of freedom, liberty, democracy and apple pie.
Also, lets annex Canada.
I didn't say WE should free anyone, this is what I am suggesting to China to change their place strategically in the world to enhance their own security. There is no reason to hold on to tibet, and they would most likely get Taiwan in exchange with all the goodwill that would be generated.
I assume you also believe that the USSR was a workers paradise?
What happens to people who assume?
The first part might be slightly true if we were talking about ROK or Japan , but the countries that would need to get "deadly high quality platforms" are Vietnam and the Philippines and I don't know if you have noticed but those countries have major problems with their economies and would never ever be able to possibly compete with China in a arms race and because of that China will be in the advantage and Vietnam and the Philippines at a serious disadvantage in the negotiations that will happen at some point in this decade , So China will get exactly what they want for the price of just one "honking piece of crap" – they win.
Second point NK is to China what hezbollah is to Iran , they can turn the heat up and down depending on what they want the USA to think , its also a nice buffer zone .
And on top of that they are picking up all of NK massive natural resources at the lowest possible price because nobody else will deal with NK . The attitude to NK in the last 4 years has been a strategic backfire not just locally but globally .- win again for china
And can I ask you why the people who always shout "Free Tibet" at China never say the same think to India ? because most Tibetans would like India stop occupying a big chunk of their country
Well ROK, Tiawan, Japan, the philipines, USA, Australia, UK, India and deepening how you look at it Russia. Thats a pretty deadly alliance with most of the worlds GDP and wealth. We can run our mouths about Russia all day, but Russia would have a lot to win if China was given a good beating, and the Russians are very good at looking after themselves.
I look at this list, and I think China can't in.
If you want to know the difference between India and China look up the Perchnt llama. I'm sure it will open your eyes.
Some of the members of that list are pretty much basket cases. With allies like the Philippines, who needs enemies?
The Philippines are strategically located, and would be invaluable in securing the south east pacific. As long as the Philippines are on our side there will be no trade or resources coming from the middle east. Their military is nothing to scoff at and we have a very long and deep relationship with its people. In a war with China, they would unquestionably be a steadfast and powerful ally.
Brian,
A serious suggestion – stop commenting and start learning. Read!!! Read how the U.S. got defeated in Vietnam despite all those superior weaponry, aircraft carriers, logistics and equipment.
You are embarrassing yourself without knowing it.
You are not alone. Most Americans are ignorant, naive and arrogant.
One advice: sell as much US dollars as possible and buy gold and silver. Do it immediately and completely in the next 3-4 years. The US is going down. That's what normally happens when there are oo many stupid citizens and politicians in the country
All I can say is WOW! That is an amazing analysis!
Please tell me all about this Vietnam war! I would love to hear about it!
BTW, which country are you from?
"All those superior weaponry…logistics and equipment" meant over a million dead North Vietnamese, translating into tactical victory on the ground coupled to defeat because we abandoned ARVN (and that ARVN could not survive without us). It might be spin-doctoring to call it ARVN's defeat more than ours, but it really was. If China or the USSR cut off North Vietnam the same way the US cut off the south, the result could easily have switched. It was won politically, not militarily.
Well, the Chinese is not getting jump jets of any kind (harrier or F35B). And the carrier will not be named ShiLang – the general defeated the rebels in Taiwan and reclaimed the island for the Qing dynasty – which has too obvious an implication. The Chinese diplomacy is all about subtlety.
If you look at what's happening over there, in fact Taiwan is China's lesser concern. The carrier will most likely be deployed to South China Sea where PRC and ROC's interests are somewhat aligned.
they probaly lost the stolen blue prints
Why steal blueprints when you can own the carrier right away? Besides, the Russian carrier doesn't meet their needs and isn't worth risking the espionage network on.
You want spies stealing cruise missile designs, and if you could, IRBMs that escaped the IMF treaty.
Good luck to the first pilot ho has to land on that thing in bad weather.
The guy who rammed our EP-3 bought the farm , right? He'd be a good test pilot otherwise.
Still a rust tub. They wont be able to field and maintain these any better than the Russians
Well, now they gotta spend more $ to maintain the darn thing ! looks good ….hope it works fellas ! too bad if they run it into a reef !
I don't think this china 1st carrier will bring peace to the asean countries like their wrong claimed in spratley island -it's a territorial right owned by Philippines.within 230 economic zones inside the philippine island. Maybe this will use by china navy start bulling the philippines by force. Your force of claimed will be dealt with sovereign UN law of Sea and our Lord God almighty.
Two brothers fought and separated. Both got weak so squatters start to encroach on their land. Now the brothers want their land back and the squatters cry injustice. What does Lord God almighty's laws say about this?
Everyone should hold their breath if this one works China will go into full production – and at the rate the produce – it will be an eye opener for the rest of the world.
They are well known to mobilize the Industry into Major projects – that is one of the perks of being a totalitarian State.
When needed they can get it done in record time.
So be Afraid…Very…Afraid.
Herman Moore from South Africa.
China won't mass produce their first gen carrier: Look at our Langley or the IJN Hosho or the Furious (and other subsequent RN carriers). Maybe the RN is the best example of subsequent one-offs improving in design.
Sure they can mobilize industry: but mobilization alone isn't the answer. Great Leap Forward didn't end in a great leap forward, and it had to wait for closer relationships with the United States, and for Deng to bring about pseudo free enterprise.
American SSN's will slaughter the PLAN surface fleet. This POS is no exception.
I imagine if they pulled a decisive-battle strategy out of the pages of Mahan this would be so.
What do you suppose the life span of a flight deck worker would be? Months? Weeks? Days?
You mean out SSN's that the Chinese national working in New Mexico sold them the specs to a few years back?
Its an ex Soviet Varyag. It could probably be over design and sink.
Its an ex Soviet Varyag, a class with a troubled maintenance record even with original machinery and without being a repurposed mutant with like twice the number of jets it should be carrying.
Good they removed the missiles, as they´d probably only serve to blow themselves up.
Sorry, typo: 2020
Blamers will see the fact that this country will have a good carrier and fighter group. Westerners have same kind of racist pre-judgements that non-westerners will always fail. They want that non-westerners would never try anything and stay in the current situation: "obey the rulers(westerners)"
I dont understand all the worries and hatred you guys have for China, a potential superpower, having a carrier. Thailand has 1, Brazil has 1, Italy Spain all got 1 as well. Canada had 5 in the past. THATS RIGHT, WE HAD A CARRIER IN EVERY SINGLE GREAK LAKE! Stop complainig…
All predators desire weak prey.
Go China, Now they will be pimping a new Carrier to help keep their own over population.
Brian, I've read your post and replies. You are absolutely wrong, and I believe you have a hidden agenda. It's also possible that you are some US sock who's paid to sway public opinion either that or you are a lone wolf.
Lets be frank, open, and honest. If China was a weak nation, divided, and poor, YOU wouldn't be commenting about China. Tell me, why does the US need 11 carriers? Why does the US spend 700+ billion on it's military? To maintain peace? or hedgemony?
China knows what it is to be weak, poor, and defenseless. We all know what happened there.
I am Chinese, and I assure you, the entire country would rather be strong, united, armed, and friendly at the same time.
Sorry pal, when oil runs thin in this world, there will be no more allies. And when that happens, it's best to be well armed.
Full stop.
Hilarious analysis brian. Obviously you got a book on WW2 for Christmas and you have just finished it.
Whether it's putting up Singapore as a a paragon of democratic government or the Philippine military as remotely competent – btw their President recently said that there was nothing they could do in disputes with China – or simply just ignoring nuclear weapons, you have a lot to learn.
"Most of the economy is command driven"… erm, right. Possibly ten years ago, though it wasn't really true even then. Then again, Fox News always was an unreliable source of economic news.
Corruption is a problem, but it's no worse than the Philippines. In Singapore, the corruption is enshrined in law… unless you think that making Major General in 5 years is based on merit.
Generally speaking, China is a pretty good place to do business in. It's a lot more free, in the business sense, than Europe (France in particular is extremely tough for an outsider to do business in). Never done business in the US, so won't comment *because it's outside of my experience and I don't let left or right wing media do my thinking for me*.
My own feeling is that China would be more stable if the market was a bit less free. It's all very well saying "do what you like, but if you mess up large you'll pay". There needs to be a stronger (as in enforced) regulatory framework in areas like food safety and construction standards.
BTW, Singapore uses writs, not tanks, on protesters. The Philippines shoots journalists en masse.
In terms of ideology, you may or may not have a point. The only part there I'd agree with you on is respect for private property, though frankly speaking similar things happen in most poor / developing nations. Personally, I take the view that a truly representative government isn't a good model for a developing country. The only quasi "democratic" country in Asia is India, and corruption there is in my opinion worse than in China, as is the respect for the rule of law and actual (as opposed to theoretical) human rights. You could argue that Japan is democratic, but if you buy the theory that in a fair system one party can rule for sixty odd years without ever being kicked out by the electorate, I have a nice bridge to sell you.
Yes, sounds like someone's been reading McArthur. The Philippines is a great, bleeding sore of a country, and you have to feel sorry for the ordinary people living there.
I never said "Singapore as a a paragon of democratic government ", that being said, it has the lowest index of corruption of any advanced country in the world. Maybe the reason the party in power stays in power because they have taken a backwards finishing village and turned it into a World Capital. Granted their laws are script and the practice corporeal punishment, but every system has some flaws in it.
I get you don't like the Philippines, but as backwards as they are, they are nowhere near the joke of the PLA or most countries for that matter.
SHHHH!!!! Your ruining my fun!!!!
I wonder if you've actually been (and I don't mean beach, bar and bedroom tourism) to all of the countries you are describing.
I know Singaporeans are patriotic… good on them. It's a nice place to live. It's just that it is, actually, very corrupt, and not even slightly democratic.