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Real D-​​Boys Video…

Monday, August 6th, 2007

The host site of the Delta Force video did some updat­ing yes­ter­day which affected the video feed on DT.

We pulled the post until the glitch was fixed.

So now it’s back up and we’ve got it for you again…Enjoy.

– Christian

Picking the Killers from the Kids

Thursday, May 17th, 2007

Afghanistan-sniper-web.jpg

During a Pentagon brief­ing yes­ter­day, the Joint Chiefs head of regional oper­a­tions, BGEN Perry Wiggins, decon­structed a recent oper­a­tion to take out Taliban fight­ers hid­ing among children. 

The expla­na­tion comes as the mil­i­tary takes fire from the Afghan gov­ern­ment on civil­ians killed in the cross­fire between coali­tion troops and Talib holdouts. 

And its also inter­est­ing to note, the detailed descrip­tion of the Special Forces troops avoid­ance of friendly fire comes in sharp con­trast to the Armys con­dem­na­tion of the Marine Corps com­man­dos who were booted from Afghanistan after their response to a road­side ambush killed civil­ians in the cross­fire in March.

BGEN Wiggins:

I’m sure all you know, there’s been a lot of recent cov­er­age about civil­ian casu­al­ties asso­ci­ated with the coun­terin­sur­gency oper­a­tions against the Taliban. Here’s an illus­tra­tion of how we actu­ally oper­ate against the bar­baric enemy that we face in the Afghanistan the­ater, and shows the restraint and pre­ci­sion exer­cised by our forces with respect to the civil­ian pop­u­lace.

(more…)

Cat & Mouse in Cyberspace

Wednesday, January 31st, 2007

Interesting news on the infowar front, in two parts. First, Declan McCullagh has stum­bled onto a previously-​​undisclosed FBI Net-​​monitoring pro­gram that’s “broader and poten­tially more intru­sive than the FBI’s [infa­mous] Carnivore sur­veil­lance sys­tem.“
keyboard_fingers.jpg

Instead of record­ing only what a par­tic­u­lar sus­pect is doing, agents con­duct­ing inves­ti­ga­tions appear to be assem­bling the activ­i­ties of thou­sands of Internet users at a time into mas­sive data­bases, accord­ing to cur­rent and for­mer offi­cials. That data­base can sub­se­quently be queried for names, e-​​mail addresses or key­words…
Call it the vacuum-​​cleaner approach. It’s employed when police have obtained a court order and an Internet ser­vice provider can’t “iso­late the par­tic­u­lar per­son or IP address” because of tech­ni­cal con­straints, says Paul Ohm, a for­mer trial attor­ney at the Justice Department’s Computer Crime and Intellectual Property Section…
That kind of full-​​pipe sur­veil­lance can record all Internet traf­fic, includ­ing Web browsing–or, option­ally, only cer­tain sub­sets such as all e-​​mail mes­sages flow­ing through the net­work. Interception typ­i­cally takes place inside an Internet provider’s net­work at the junc­tion point of a router or net­work switch. 

Top data-​​miners and social net­work ana­lysts have ques­tioned whether this kind of broad-​​brush sur­veil­lance works at all. And while we’re all get­ting caught in the FBI’s elec­tronic drag­net, the real bad guys are get­ting smarter about hid­ing their tracks. The Middle East Media Research Institute notes:

The Global Islamic Media Front [recently] announced the immi­nent release of new com­puter soft­ware called “Mujahideen Secrets.. [allegedly] the first Islamic com­puter pro­gram for secure exchange [of infor­ma­tion] on the Internet,” and it pro­vides users with “the five best encryp­tion algo­rithms, and with sym­met­ri­cal encryp­tion keys (256 bit), asym­met­ri­cal encryp­tion keys (2048 bit) and data com­pres­sion [tools].”

The pack­age “is com­pa­ra­ble to any num­ber of com­mer­cial prod­ucts avail­able here in the United States,” says ZDNet blog­ger Mitch Ratcliffe. “The dif­fer­ence is an Islamist skin, which seems more a gim­mick to inspire con­fi­dence in the soft­ware than a guar­an­tee it will be effec­tive.“
But “‘Mujahedin Secrets’ is the lat­est exam­ple of the grow­ing tech­ni­cal com­pe­tence of online sup­port­ers of al-​​Qaida and other Islamic ter­ror net­works, but encryp­tion capa­bil­i­ties are not new in the world of cyber-​​jihadis,” IntelCenter’s Ben Venzke tells UPI.

“This is con­sis­tent with the ongo­ing efforts of jihadist sym­pa­thiz­ers online… Encryption is used by some (Islamic ter­ror­ists)” and some al-​​Qaida man­u­als have addressed the ques­tion.
He said encryp­tion is “a stan­dard part of the oper­a­tional secu­rity prac­ticed (online) by those (Islamic ter­ror­ists) who take the time to use it.

Inside the N.S.A. Hearing

Thursday, January 18th, 2007

National Journal sur­veil­lance reporter Shane Harris has been watch­ing Attorney General Gonzales tes­ti­mony before the Senate Judiciary Committee. He calls an exchange with Senators Feingold and with Schumer about the NSA domes­tic wire­tap­ping program’s new legal sta­tus “espe­cially illu­mi­nat­ing.” Harris sees a new kind of order for the eaves­drop­ping, issued by a sin­gle — likely Administration-​​friendly — judge.
ag_ag_shrug.jpgFirst, the attor­ney gen­eral referred to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court judge who issued this recent autho­riza­tion as he, when Gonzales said, He was very care­ful. That means that the pre­sid­ing judge, Colleen Kollar-​​Kotelly, who report­edly has expressed con­cerns about the NSA pro­gram taint­ing other FISA [Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act] war­rant appli­ca­tions, was not the judge who issued this order that appar­ently allows the NSA pro­gram to con­tinue. Of course, Kollar-​​Kottelly is the only woman on the 11-​​member court, so that doesnt much nar­row down the ques­tion of which judge gave the order.
When Feingold asked Gonzales how long it took the court to issue this order, Gonzales replied that it took longer than a nor­mal FISA appli­ca­tion. There are vary­ing accounts of how long it takes to secure and exe­cute a FISA war­rant, but admin­is­tra­tion offi­cials have said in the past that they didnt orig­i­nally seek FISA war­rants for the NSA pro­gram, in part, because the process took too long. So, it sounds as if Gonzales is say­ing that this most recent order from the judge came after longer than usual delib­er­a­tion on his part.
Gonzales also said that the admin­is­tra­tion sub­mit­ted an appli­ca­tion for this order to the judge, and that it was inno­v­a­tive. To the first par­tap­pli­ca­tion­this raises the ques­tion, which the Justice Department hasnt answered, of whether this recent order applied to one par­tic­u­lar inter­cept, to more than one, or to the entire pro­gram. Sen. Schumer pressed Gonzales for some speci­ficity on this point, but the attor­ney gen­eral declined to dis­cuss what he said were oper­a­tional details of the mat­ter. But read­ing between the lines a bit, I sus­pect that Gonzales means the admin­is­tra­tion has come up with an appli­ca­tion for elec­tronic sur­veil­lance, one that that fits the spe­cial para­me­ters of the NSA pro­gram, and that this inno­v­a­tive appli­ca­tion is dif­fer­ent from a tra­di­tional FISA appli­ca­tion. It took some time for a judge to get com­fort­able with this appli­ca­tion, Gonzales said, which I think implies that this appli­ca­tion is, indeed, unusual. Whether it will be used on a case-​​by-​​case basis, or whether it will cover any and all sur­veil­lance con­ducted under the para­me­ters of the NSA pro­gram is unclear. But pre­sum­ably, if a judge has found this new appli­ca­tion accept­able, and has ruled that it does work under the intel­li­gence sur­veil­lance law, then the admin­is­tra­tion would use it again if nec­es­sary.
One final note, Gonzales did refer to orders, plural, from the judge. He said that these orders meet the legal require­ments under FISA and that they also include min­i­miza­tion pro­ce­dures [to pro­tect per­sonal pri­vacy] above-​​and-​​beyond what is nor­mally required under law. Gonzales also acknowl­edged that, until the judge issued his recent order, the admin­is­tra­tion did not believe that FISA was avail­able to cover the NSA pro­gram. At times, offi­cials have said that they thought FISA did not apply, indi­cat­ing that they had made a legal judg­ment inde­pen­dent of the courts rul­ing. But Gonzales now seems to be say­ing that offi­cials were unsure whether FISA applied or not, which is what prompted them to work up this new, inno­v­a­tive appli­ca­tion to the court.
One other note: In yesterday’s back­ground brief­ing by senior Justice Department offi­cials, one of the them said that the new orders “take advan­tage of use of the use of the FISA statute and devel­op­ments in the law. I can’t really get into devel­op­ments in the law before the FISA court. But it’s a process that began nearly two years ago, and it’s just now that the court has approved these orders.“
“Developments in the law” implies that the recent court order is based not only on FISA, but on recent law, as well. Could be the Patriot Act, which includes elec­tronic sur­veil­lance pro­vi­sions. It sounds as if the judge con­sid­ered statutes other than FISA in mak­ing his deci­sion.
Shane Harris
UPDATE 9:33 AM: As TPM Muckracker notes, “Rep. Heather Wilson (R-​​NM) out-​​and-​​out called Gonzales a liar.” The AG claimed he briefed Congress on the sur­veil­lance program’s new legal bound­aries. “She was never told of the plan, she said, and from what she heard yes­ter­day it likely stinks:

Ms. Wilson, who has scru­ti­nized the pro­gram for the last year, said she believed the new approach relied on a blan­ket, pro­gram­matic approval of the pres­i­dents sur­veil­lance pro­gram, rather than approval of indi­vid­ual war­rants.
Administration offi­cials have con­vinced a sin­gle judge in a secret ses­sion, in a non­ad­ver­sar­ial ses­sion, to issue a court order to cover the pres­i­dents ter­ror­ism sur­veil­lance pro­gram, Ms. Wilson said in a tele­phone inter­view. She said Congress needed to inves­ti­gate fur­ther to deter­mine how the pro­gram is run.

UPDATE 9:38 AM: Gonzales has met the enemy. And he blogs.

NSA Wiretaps Brought Under Law (Updated Again)

Wednesday, January 17th, 2007

wiretap.jpgGreat news: The NSA’s domes­tic spy­ing pro­gram is finally being brought within the bounds of the law, more than a year after it was revealed.
The Justice Department has decided to let the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court — the tra­di­tional, and legal, mon­i­tor of gov­ern­ment wire­tap pro­grams — start exam­in­ing the spy efforts. Before, the Bush Administration said no such review was needed — a legal read­ing that even for­mer NSA chiefs said was wildly off-​​base.
The court has already “approved one request for mon­i­tor­ing the com­mu­ni­ca­tions of a per­son believed to be linked to al-​​Qaida or an asso­ci­ated ter­ror group,” the AP says.
It’s a huge (and wel­come) turn­around for an admin­is­tra­tion that said pre­vi­ously that the pres­i­dent had the power to order almost any­thing in the name of fight­ing ter­ror. (And “still believes that,” accord­ing to flack-​​in-​​chief Tony Snow.) So why the change? Snow mum­bled some­thing about the court’s increased “agility.” But you can bet your ass the new Congress had a whole lot to do with it.
UPDATE 3:28 PM: Shocker. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, in his let­ter describ­ing the rule change, appears to be lying through his teeth shad­ing the truth, say­ing that the admin­is­tra­tion has been try­ing to put the wire­taps under the court’s author­ity since the spring of 2005. If that’s the case, Glenn Greenwald asks, “why didn’t they say so when the con­tro­versy arose?
UPDATE 3:35 PM: Patrick Keefe, author of Chatter: Dispatches from the Secret World of Global Eavesdropping, is tak­ing a wait-​​and-​​see approach to Gonzales’s announce­ment. “It’s just not clear what it means,” he tells Defense Tech.

There have already been pro­pos­als for the FISA court to grant blan­ket retroac­tive approval to the pro­gram, and if that’s what this is, then it’s not much of a con­ces­sion from the admin­is­tra­tion. If, on the other hand, it’s actu­ally case-​​by-​​case approval by FISA judges we’re talk­ing about, I’m not sure how that’s going to square with the reported scope of the pro­gram. The osten­si­ble grounds for cir­cum­vent­ing the FISA in the first place were that this pro­gram didn’t fit in the FISA frame­work. And given that it report­edly does a kind of mile-​​wide-​​and-​​inch-​​deep net­work analy­sis that is anti­thet­i­cal to the per­son­al­ized, legally sanc­tioned sur­veil­lance con­tem­plated by the FISA, I’m not sure how you can make the two pro­ce­dures fit. Unless what they’re really say­ing here is that they’re aban­don­ing the pro­gram alto­gether, and return­ing to one-​​target-​​at-​​a-​​time, retail-​​rather-​​than-​​wholesale sur­veil­lance. Which some­how I doubt.

UPDATE 3:35 PM: “It sounds to me like this court just re-​​wrote the law and made a sec­ond cat­e­gory of wire­taps (one that is eas­ier to get but only tar­geted at over­seas com­mu­ni­ca­tions),” writes Ryan Singel.
He also notes that Gonzales’s announce­ment comes just a day before he is sup­posed to tes­tify before the Senate Judiciary Committee. “Pretty sneaky, sis,” Ryan says.
UPDATE 4:51 PM: “Another ques­tion raised by Gonzales let­ter indeed, in the first sen­tence is which FISC judge issued this order?” sur­veil­lance scoop­mas­ter Shane Harris tells Defense Tech.

The let­ter states that a judge issued the order. Does Gonzales mean the courts pre­sid­ing (or chief) judge, Colleen Kollar-​​Kotelly? Presumably he would have said so if that were the case. Kottelly has been briefed on the NSA pro­gram pre­vi­ously. She report­edly has been con­cerned that infor­ma­tion obtained with­out war­rants under the NSA pro­gram could taint other war­rant appli­ca­tions before the court.
The FISC is made up of 11 sit­ting fed­eral judges hail­ing from judi­cial dis­tricts across the coun­try. Did the admin­is­tra­tion select a par­tic­u­lar judge to approach for this order? Heres the break­down on how many judges were appointed by a par­tic­u­lar president:

Jimmy Carter: 1
Ronald Reagan: 4
George H.W. Bush: 3
Bill Clinton: 2
George W. Bush: 1

Pentagon, CIA Go Bank-​​Snooping

Saturday, January 13th, 2007

The mil­i­tary team track­ing anti-​​war pro­test­ers is now dig­ging through bank records, too.
bank_vault.jpg“The Pentagon has been using a little-​​known power to obtain bank­ing and credit records of hun­dreds of Americans and oth­ers sus­pected of ter­ror­ism or espi­onage inside the United States,” the Times reports. It’s “part of an aggres­sive expan­sion by the mil­i­tary into domes­tic intel­li­gence gath­er­ing. And the CIA is join­ing in, also “issu­ing what are known as national secu­rity let­ters to gain access to finan­cial records from American companies.”


The let­ters pro­vide tremen­dous leads to fol­low and often with which to cor­rob­o­rate other evi­dence in the con­text of coun­teres­pi­onage and coun­tert­er­ror­ism, said Maj. Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman…
But even when the ini­tial sus­pi­cions are unproven, the doc­u­ments have intel­li­gence value, mil­i­tary offi­cials say. In the next year, they plan to incor­po­rate the records into a data­base at the Counterintelligence Field Activity office at the Pentagon to track pos­si­ble threats against the mil­i­tary, Pentagon offi­cials said…
Some national secu­rity experts and civil lib­er­ties advo­cates are trou­bled by the C.I.A. and mil­i­tary tak­ing on domes­tic intel­li­gence activ­i­ties, par­tic­u­larly in light of recent dis­clo­sures that the Counterintelligence Field Activity office had main­tained files on Iraq war pro­test­ers in the United States in vio­la­tion of the mil­i­tarys own guide­lines. Some experts say the Pentagon has adopted an overly expan­sive view of its domes­tic role under the guise of force pro­tec­tion, or efforts to guard mil­i­tary instal­la­tions…
One promi­nent case in which let­ters were used to obtain finan­cial records, accord­ing to two mil­i­tary offi­cials, was that of a Muslim chap­lain at Guantnamo Bay, Cuba, who was sus­pected in 2003 of aid­ing ter­ror sus­pects impris­oned at the facil­ity. The espi­onage case against the chap­lain, James J. Yee, soon col­lapsed, and he was even­tu­ally con­victed on lesser charges of adul­tery and down­load­ing pornog­ra­phy.
Eugene Fidell, a defense lawyer for the for­mer chap­lain and a mil­i­tary law expert, said he was unaware that mil­i­tary inves­ti­ga­tors may have used national secu­rity let­ters to obtain finan­cial infor­ma­tion about Mr. Yee, nor was he aware that the mil­i­tary had ever claimed the author­ity to issue the let­ters.
Mr. Fidell said he found the prac­tice dis­turb­ing,? in part because the mil­i­tary does not have the same checks and bal­ances when it comes to Americans civil rights as does the F.B.I. Where is the account­abil­ity? he asked. Thats the evil of it it doesnt leave fingerprints.

(Big ups: DK)

Darpa Preps for “Baghdad 2015″

Tuesday, January 9th, 2007

The cur­rent TomDispatch has a great round-​​up of Darpa’s research into the future of urban war­fare. But man, do you have to put up with a lot to get to the good stuff.
soldier_overlook.jpgThe article’s main thrust is that the Pentagon is ready­ing itself for a “low-​​intensity world war of unlim­ited dura­tion against crim­i­nal­ized seg­ments of the urban poor.” There’s an “assumed need to be in the urban Iraqs of the future, [so] the ques­tion for the U.S. mil­i­tary becomes a prac­ti­cal one: How to deal with these uppity chil­dren of the third world.“
Yeah, I’m rolling my eyes, too. Like the failed-​​state jihadists of the world will just go about mind­ing their own busi­ness… if the U.S. just stays out their slums. Sure. Worked like a charm, before 9/​11.
Besides, the U.S. has been fight­ing in cities since… well, since before there was a U.S. (George Washington tan­gled with the Red Coats in New York City, for exam­ple.) And we’ve never been all that good at it. The fact is, American armed forces have almost always pre­ferred a stand-​​up fight — an open war — to some close-​​quarters, urban com­bat. That’s what are train­ing is ori­ented around. That’s what our gear is made for. But the guys plot­ting to hurt us and our allies are in cities. So it’s into urban canyons our mil­i­tary must go.
The arti­cle winces about American mil­i­tary talk of prep­ping for “Baghdad 2015″ and urban fights of the issue fights. “Today, it’s Baghdad; tomorrow…it could be Accra, Bogota, Dhaka, Karachi, Kinshasa, Lagos, Mogadishu or even a peren­nial favorite, Port au Prince.” But given how badly “Baghdad 2007″ is going, doesn’t the Pentagon — and espe­cially, its research arms — owe it to the rest of us to get bet­ter at those kinds of con­flicts? Especially when Baghdad is only one in a long list of urban oper­a­tions (Mogadishu, Srebrenica, Kabul) the U.S. has found itself in over the last few decades? Wouldn’t any­thing less would be… well, a dere­lic­tion of duty?
Anyway. After sev­eral more para­graphs, we get to the meat of the story, on “the wide range of efforts to visu­al­ize, map out, and spy on the global mega–fave­las that the U.S. has, until now, largely scorned and neglected.” Most of these pro­grams won’t be new to close read­ers of Defense Tech. But it’s inter­est­ing, and help­ful, to see ‘em all in one place. Items include…

VisiBuilding: This is a pro­gram aimed at address­ing “a press­ing need in urban war­fare: see­ing inside build­ings” by devel­op­ing tech­nol­ogy that will allow U.S. forces to “deter­mine build­ing lay­outs, find anom­alous quan­ti­ties of mate­ri­als,” and “locate peo­ple within the build­ing…“
UrbanScape: This pro­gram aims “to make the for­eign city as famil­iar as the soldier’s back­yard’” by pro­vid­ing “the warfight­ers patrolling an urban envi­ron­ment with an up-​​to-​​date, high res­o­lu­tion model of the urban ter­rain that can be viewed, manip­u­lated and ana­lyzed.“
Urban Hopping Robots… a semi-​​autonomous hybrid hopping/​articulated wheeled robotic plat­form [like this one, maybe — ed.] that could adapt to the urban envi­ron­ment… and pro­vide the deliv­ery of small pay­loads to any point of the urban jun­gle while remain­ing light­weight, small to min­i­mize the bur­den on the sol­dier.
Close Combat Lethal Recon This deadly, loi­ter­ing explo­sive expres­sively for use in urban land­scapes will expand a soldier’s killing zone by reach­ing “over and around build­ings, onto rooftops, and into open build­ing por­tals.” Think of it as a smart grenade or, accord­ing to DARPA Director Tether… “a small mor­tar round with a grenade-​​size explo­sive in it. A fiber-​​optic line unreels from its back end and pro­vides the data link that allows the sol­dier to see the video from the munition’s cam­era and to fly it into the target.”

If it works — and that’s always a big if, when you’re talk­ing about a Darpa project — that does sound like a nasty weapon. Not just in a city. But in any envi­ron­ment.
FWIW, The story leaves of of its list two of the creepi­est Darpa pro­grams geared towards urban fights. “Combat Zones That See” tries to strap cheap cam­eras together, giv­ing sol­diers watch over an entire city at once; the “Integrated Sensor is Structure” pro­gram aims to do the same thing — with a giant, all-​​seeing blimp. And then there’s Darpa’s next robotic road race. It’s through… a city! (Cue scary music.)

New Spy Chief’s “Total Information” Ties

Friday, January 5th, 2007

John Michael McConnell, the retired vice admi­ral slated to become America’s new top spy, [has some] long­time asso­ci­a­tions [which] may cause him headaches dur­ing Senate con­fir­ma­tion hear­ings,” Newsweek​.com notes.“One such tie is with another for­mer Navy admi­ral, John Poindexter, the Iran-​​contra fig­ure who started the con­tro­ver­sial ‘Total Information Awareness’ pro­gram at the Pentagon in 2002.“
iaologo.gif


The inter­na­tional con­sul­tancy that McConnell has worked at for a decade as a senior vice pres­i­dent, Booz Allen Hamilton, won con­tracts worth $63 mil­lion on the TIA “data-​​mining” pro­gram, which was later can­celled
[kinda sorta — ed.] after con­gres­sional Democrats raised ques­tions about inva­sion of pri­vacy… While his role in the TIA pro­gram is unlikely to derail McConnell’s nom­i­na­tion, spokes­peo­ple for some lead­ing Democratic sen­a­tors such as Russ Feingold of Wisconsin and Ron Wyden of Oregon say it will be exam­ined care­fully.
McConnell was a key fig­ure in mak­ing Booz Allen, along with Science Applications International Corp., the prime con­trac­tor on the project, accord­ing to offi­cials in the intel­li­gence com­mu­nity and at Booz Allen who would dis­cuss con­tracts for data min­ing only on con­di­tion of anonymity because of the sen­si­tiv­ity of the sub­ject. “I think Poindexter prob­a­bly respected Mike and prob­a­bly entrusted the TIA pro­gram to him as a result,” said a long­time asso­ciate of McConnell’s who worked at NSA with him…
Intel experts agree that McConnell will need all the good will he can get from the intel­li­gence and defense com­mu­ni­ties. “It’s a good appoint­ment for a bad office,” says John Arquilla, who teaches intel­li­gence at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif. “The direc­torate of national intel­li­gence should not exist. It’s very redun­dant.” Insiders say Negroponte was frus­trated by his lack of bud­get­ing con­trol over Pentagon intel­li­gence, and the resis­tance of the CIA to his direc­tion since his office was cre­ated in 2004 as part of the Bush administration’s post-​​9/​11 reforms.

And by the way, Rutty asks in the com­ments (I’m para­phras­ing heav­ily here): What was McConnell’s role in Echelon — the NSA’s mas­sive infor­ma­tion sweeper, which got some much atten­tion dur­ing the Clinton years? (The project had been around for decades, remember.)

Data Diver Disses Terror-​​Mining

Tuesday, December 12th, 2006

Jeff Jonas is one of the country’s lead­ing prac­ti­tion­ers of the dark art of data analy­sis. Casino chiefs and gov­ern­ment spooks alike have used his CIA-​​funded “Non-​​Obvious Relationship Awareness” soft­ware to scour data­bases for hid­den con­nec­tions.
nyt_mag_terror_diagram.jpgSo you’d think that Jonas would be all into the idea of using these data-​​mining sys­tems to pre­dict who the next ter­ror­ist attacker might be.
Think again. “Though data min­ing has many valu­able uses, it is not well suited to the ter­ror­ist dis­cov­ery prob­lem,” he writes in a new study, co-​​authored with the Cato Institute’s Jim Harper. “This use of data min­ing would waste tax­payer dol­lars, need­lessly infringe on pri­vacy and civil lib­er­ties, and mis­di­rect the valu­able time and energy of the men and women in the national secu­rity com­mu­nity.” Are you lis­ten­ing, NSA?
Jonas doesn’t have a prob­lem cob­bling together infor­ma­tion on sus­pects from var­i­ous data­bases. It’s using these data­bases to fore­cast a terrorist’s behav­ior — think mar­ket research, but for Al-​​Qaeda — that Jonas hates. “The pos­si­ble ben­e­fits of pre­dic­tive data min­ing for find­ing plan­ning or prepa­ra­tion for ter­ror­ism are min­i­mal. The finan­cial costs, wasted effort, and threats to pri­vacy and civil lib­er­ties are poten­tially vast,” he writes.

One of the fun­da­men­tal under­pin­nings of pre­dic­tive data min­ing in the com­mer­cial sec­tor is the use of train­ing pat­terns. Corporations that study con­sumer behav­ior have mil­lions of pat­terns that they can draw upon to pro­file their typ­i­cal or ideal con­sumer. Even when data min­ing is used to seek out instances of iden­tity and credit card fraud, this relies on mod­els con­structed using many thou­sands of known exam­ples of fraud per year.
Terrorism has no sim­i­lar indi­cia. With a rel­a­tively small num­ber of attempts every year and only one or two major ter­ror­ist inci­dents every few yearseach one dis­tinct in terms of plan­ning and exe­cu­tion­there are no mean­ing­ful pat­terns that show what behav­ior indi­cates plan­ning or prepa­ra­tion for ter­ror­ism. Unlike con­sumers shop­ping habits and finan­cial fraud, ter­ror­ism does not occur with enough fre­quency to enable the cre­ation of valid pre­dic­tive mod­els. Predictive data min­ing for the pur­pose of turn­ing up ter­ror­ist plan­ning using all avail­able demo­graphic and trans­ac­tional data points will pro­duce no bet­ter results than the highly sophis­ti­cated com­mer­cial data min­ing done today
[with results in the low single-​​digits ed.]. The one thing pre­dictable about pre­dic­tive data min­ing for ter­ror­ism is that it would be con­sis­tently wrong.
Without pat­terns to use, one fall­back for ter­ror­ism data min­ing is the idea that any anom­aly may pro­vide the basis for inves­ti­ga­tion of ter­ror­ism plan­ning. Given a typ­i­cal American pat­tern of Internet use, phone call­ing, doc­tor vis­its, pur­chases, travel, read­ing, and so on, per­haps all out­liers merit some level of inves­ti­ga­tion. This the­ory is offen­sive to tra­di­tional American free­dom, because in the United States every­one can and should be an out­lier in some sense. More con­cretely, though, using data min­ing in this way could be worse than search­ing at ran­dom; ter­ror­ists could defeat it by act­ing as nor­mally as pos­si­ble.
Treating anom­alous behav­ior as sus­pi­cious may appear sci­en­tific, but, with­out pat­terns to look for, the design of a search algo­rithm based on anom­aly is no more likely to turn up ter­ror­ists than twist­ing the end of a kalei­do­scope is likely to draw an image of the Mona Lisa.

Civil lib­er­tar­i­ans and blog­gers have talked ’til they’re blue in the face about how lame this kind of terror-​​predicting is. But I don’t think I’ve ever heard a giant of the field, like Jonas, come out against the prac­tice — at least not on-​​the-​​record. Let’s hope this is one con­ver­sa­tion that the feds are mon­i­tor­ing.
(Big ups: Daou)
UPDATE 11:49 AM: Shane Harris here. Die-​​hard pro­po­nents of pattern-​​based ‘data min­ing’ to catch ter­ror­ists will remain uncon­vinced by Jonas’ and Harper’s argu­ment. While it’s true that data min­ing in the com­mer­cial sec­tor is based upon “train­ing pat­terns,” back­ers of sys­tems such as Total Information Awareness will say, yes, and that’s why data min­ing for ter­ror­ists has to start with hun­dreds — maybe thou­sands — of known or poten­tial ter­ror­ist pat­terns to look for. A major part of TIA research was the cre­ation of ter­ror­ist attack tem­plates through red team­ing exer­cises, in which experts were paid to come up with devi­ous and clan­des­tine plots that a ter­ror­ist might con­ceiv­ably attempt. Their var­i­ous machi­na­tions would, pre­sum­ably, leave a set of dig­i­tal foot­prints — air­line tick­ets pur­chased, money wired, hotels paid for, and so on — and THAT data would be mined for clues.
What’s also inter­est­ing about this paper is the com­bi­na­tion of the authors. Jim Harper is a well-​​known and artic­u­late activist, and has long since staked out cen­tral ter­ri­tory in the secu­rity vs. pri­vacy debate. But Jonas has stayed out of pol­i­tics. Indeed, those who’ve met him will know that he sticks out like a sore West coast thumb among Washington gear heads, being unafraid to use the word “dude” in for­mal con­ver­sa­tion and hap­pily acknowl­edg­ing his igno­rance of most Beltway insider base­ball. But those who know Jonas and have heard him speak about elec­tronic ter­ror­ist hunt­ing know that, like his co-​​author Harper, he has a strong lib­er­tar­ian streak. Maybe Jonas wouldn’t put it quite that way — dude — but it’s there.

DNI’s Privacy Pow-​​Wows

Friday, December 1st, 2006

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which over­sees all U.S. intel­li­gence agen­cies, has for nearly three months been hold­ing a series of low-​​profile “pri­vacy work­shops” with a range of experts on tech­nol­ogy and pri­vacy.
20050217elpepuint_6_I_LCO.jpgThe stated pur­pose to edu­cate DNI offi­cials, their tech­nol­o­gists, and civil lib­er­ties watch­dogs on what cur­rent and emerg­ing tech­nolo­gies could be used to pro­tect pri­vacy rights dur­ing the col­lec­tion and analy­sis of intel­li­gence. These broad and largely infor­mal dis­cus­sions are being held against the back­drop of increased sur­veil­lance and elec­tronic mon­i­tor­ing by the gov­ern­ment as it pur­sues ter­ror­ist sus­pects.
Some of the work­shop atten­dees praised the DNI for seek­ing checks against poten­tial abuses, par­tic­u­larly as the gov­ern­ments appetite for data min­ing and pro­fil­ing sys­tems increases. But sev­eral well-​​known and highly regarded experts — who include vocal crit­ics of the Bush admin­is­tra­tions coun­tert­er­ror­ism poli­cies — were not invited to attend.
The final work­shop will be held next week, out­side Washington. Officials arent ask­ing atten­dees to rec­om­mend a par­tic­u­lar way for­ward on privacy-​​protection, but they say theyll use what theyve learned to help chart the DNIs research agenda.
Check out the full story in the cur­rent National Journal, out now.
Shane Harris